Tearsheet

Illumina (ILMN)


Market Price (2/9/2026): $119.75 | Market Cap: $18.3 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services

Illumina (ILMN)


Market Price (2/9/2026): $119.75
Market Cap: $18.3 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.0%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.5%
  Key risks
ILMN key risks include [1] major regulatory fines and a forced divestiture related to its Grail acquisition, Show more.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.5%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, and Precision Medicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Personalized Diagnostics, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.0%
5 Key risks
ILMN key risks include [1] major regulatory fines and a forced divestiture related to its Grail acquisition, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Illumina (ILMN) stock has lost about 5% since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Flat Full-Year 2025 Revenue. Despite exceeding expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025 in both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue, Illumina reported essentially flat revenue growth for the full fiscal year 2025 compared to 2024. This stagnation overshadowed the positive quarterly performance and disappointed investors, leading to selling pressure.

2. Dilution and Costs Associated with SomaLogic Acquisition. The completion of the SomaLogic acquisition, while strategically expanding Illumina's multiomics portfolio, is projected to dilute 2026 EPS by $0.18 and reduce the non-GAAP operating margin by 100 basis points. This near-term financial impact contributed to investor caution.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -3.1% change in ILMN stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120252082026Change
Stock Price ($)123.54119.72-3.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4,2884,2880.0%
Net Income Margin (%)16.4%16.4%0.0%
P/E Multiple26.926.1-3.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1531530.0%
Cumulative Contribution-3.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 2/8/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ILMN-3.1% 
Market (SPY)1.3%12.3%
Sector (XLV)9.3%22.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 16.6% change in ILMN stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120252082026Change
Stock Price ($)102.71119.7216.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4,3374,288-1.1%
P/S Multiple3.84.313.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1591533.9%
Cumulative Contribution16.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 2/8/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ILMN16.6% 
Market (SPY)9.6%22.7%
Sector (XLV)21.5%28.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -9.8% change in ILMN stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120252082026Change
Stock Price ($)132.74119.72-9.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4,3904,288-2.3%
P/S Multiple4.84.3-11.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1591533.9%
Cumulative Contribution-9.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2025 to 2/8/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ILMN-9.8% 
Market (SPY)15.8%40.7%
Sector (XLV)8.8%41.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The -42.5% change in ILMN stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -38.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120232082026Change
Stock Price ($)208.17119.72-42.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)4,6994,288-8.7%
P/S Multiple7.04.3-38.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1571532.6%
Cumulative Contribution-42.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2023 to 2/8/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ILMN-42.5% 
Market (SPY)76.2%38.9%
Sector (XLV)23.8%40.9%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
ILMN Return3%-47%-31%-1%-2%2%-63%
Peers Return32%-19%-9%0%2%-1%-2%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%-1%81%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ILMN Win Rate67%25%33%50%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate70%43%48%48%55%20% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ILMN Max Drawdown-6%-53%-54%-27%-47%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-6%-33%-28%-9%-25%-4% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-1% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TMO, DHR, A, QGEN, BIO. See ILMN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/6/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventILMNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-82.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven465.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven61 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-29.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven41.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven301 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-57.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven137.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven623 days1,480 days

Compare to TMO, DHR, A, QGEN, BIO

In The Past

Illumina's stock fell -82.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2021. A -82.3% loss requires a 465.6% gain to breakeven.

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About Illumina (ILMN)

Illumina, Inc. provides sequencing and array-based solutions for genetic and genomic analysis. Its products and services serve customers in a range of markets enabling the adoption of genomic solutions in research and clinical settings for applications in the life sciences, oncology, reproductive health, agriculture, and other emerging segments. The company provides instruments and consumables used in genetic analysis; and genotyping and sequencing services, instrument service contracts, and development and licensing agreements, as well as cancer detection testing services. Its customers include genomic research centers, academic institutions, government laboratories, and hospitals, as well as pharmaceutical, biotechnology, commercial molecular diagnostic laboratories, and consumer genomics companies. The company markets and distributes its products directly to customers in North America, Europe, Latin America, and the Asia-Pacific region, as well as sells through life-science distributors in various markets within Europe, the Asia-Pacific region, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is based in San Diego, California.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Illumina (ILMN):

  • Intel for DNA sequencing: Just as Intel provides the essential processors that power computers, Illumina provides the foundational technology and instruments that sequence DNA, enabling researchers and clinicians to read the genetic code.
  • Microsoft for genomics: Similar to how Microsoft creates the operating systems and software that form the backbone of computing, Illumina provides the core platforms and tools (hardware and software) that power the field of genomics.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) Systems: These are high-throughput instruments used for rapid and accurate DNA and RNA sequencing across various research and clinical applications.
  • Sequencing Reagents and Consumables: These include essential chemical kits, flow cells, and other materials required to prepare samples and operate Illumina's sequencing platforms.
  • Microarray Systems: These instruments are designed for parallel analysis of genetic variations, genotyping, and gene expression profiling.
  • Microarray Consumables: These are specialized chips (arrays) and reagent kits used with microarray instruments for various genomic analysis applications.
  • Bioinformatics Software and Solutions: These comprise software tools and platforms for managing, analyzing, and interpreting the vast genomic data generated by their instruments.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Illumina (symbol: ILMN) primarily sells its sequencing and array technologies, consumables, and software to other companies and organizations, rather than directly to individuals.

Given the diverse nature of Illumina's customer base and the fact that public companies rarely disclose specific major customers by name (unless a single customer accounts for a significant portion of revenue, which is not typical for Illumina), it is more appropriate to identify the major *categories* of institutions and companies that utilize their products.

The primary categories of customers Illumina serves include:

  • Academic and Research Institutions: This category encompasses universities, government laboratories, and non-profit research centers worldwide that use Illumina's platforms for fundamental research in genomics, genetics, biology, and various other scientific fields.
  • Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Companies: These customers leverage Illumina's technology for drug discovery and development, biomarker identification, genetic screening, and research into new therapies.
  • Clinical Laboratories and Healthcare Providers: This segment includes diagnostic laboratories, hospitals, and other healthcare entities that use Illumina's products for clinical applications such as oncology testing, reproductive health screening, rare disease diagnosis, and pharmacogenomics.

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Jacob Thaysen, PhD Chief Executive Officer

Jacob Thaysen joined Illumina as Chief Executive Officer in September 2023. Prior to Illumina, he served as Senior Vice President of Agilent Technologies and President of its Life Sciences and Applied Markets Group from 2018 to 2023, and President of Agilent's Diagnostics and Genomics Group from 2014 to 2018. Before Agilent, he was Corporate Vice President of R&D at Dako, a Danish cancer diagnostic company, and a management consultant at Copenhagen Consultancy Company (now Bain & Co). Early in his career, he founded and served as Chief Technology Officer of Cantion, a research and defense application development company based in Denmark. Thaysen holds an MSc and PhD in physics from the Technical University of Denmark.

Ankur Dhingra Chief Financial Officer

Ankur Dhingra was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Illumina in April 2024. He previously served as CFO at Summit Therapeutics, a biopharmaceutical oncology company, and prior to that, as CFO at CareDx, Inc., a molecular diagnostics company. Dhingra spent 18 years at Agilent Technologies, holding various financial and operational leadership roles, including Vice President of Investor Relations and Group CFO for the Life Sciences and Applied Markets Group. He is a Chartered Accountant from The Institute of Chartered Accountants of India.

Steve Barnard, PhD Chief Technology Officer

Steve Barnard serves as Illumina's Chief Technology Officer, leading the company's research and product development teams. He joined Illumina in 1998 as the company's first scientist and fourth employee, holding various leadership positions within Illumina's R&D organization for over 25 years. Dr. Barnard has significantly contributed to maturing Illumina's foundational science technologies and has played an integral role in advancing the company's products, including the NovaSeq X series. He holds more than 100 patents globally.

Everett Cunningham Chief Commercial Officer

Everett Cunningham joined Illumina as Chief Commercial Officer in June 2024. He is responsible for building and managing the company's global commercial organization and strategy. Cunningham brings over 20 years of commercial experience from the healthcare tech, life sciences, and pharmaceutical industries. Most recently, he served as Chief Commercial Officer at Exact Sciences, where he oversaw the company's marketing, sales, and customer service functions.

Jakob Wedel Chief Strategy and Corporate Development Officer

Jakob Wedel was appointed Chief Strategy and Corporate Development Officer at Illumina in April 2024, leading corporate strategy, partnerships, alliances, and acquisitions. With over 25 years in top-tier strategy consulting focused on the life science and technology sector, Mr. Wedel was previously a Senior Partner at Ernst and Young's strategy practice, EY Parthenon, where he played a key role in the global expansion of its life science strategy practice.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Illumina's business (ILMN) are:

  1. Regulatory and Legal Challenges: Illumina faces significant regulatory and legal hurdles stemming primarily from its acquisition of Grail. The European Commission imposed a substantial $476 million fine on Illumina for completing the acquisition without obtaining the necessary regulatory approval and has since ordered Illumina to divest Grail. Illumina is also entangled in an ongoing legal battle with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) concerning the Grail acquisition, with decisions expected to impact the company's future actions regarding Grail. Furthermore, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched an investigation into the Grail acquisition, requesting documents related to the deal and the conduct of management. These regulatory and legal challenges introduce significant financial penalties, operational uncertainty, and resource drain for the company.
  2. Intensified Competition: Illumina's market dominance in next-generation sequencing (NGS) is increasingly threatened by competitive pressures. Roche has introduced its "sequencing by expansion (SBX) technology," which analysts consider a formidable competitor to Illumina's platforms, potentially impacting its market share due to competitive pricing and performance. Other key competitors include Thermo Fisher Scientific, Pacific Biosciences, Oxford Nanopore Technologies, and MGI Tech Co., all vying for market share with their own sequencing technologies. Additionally, Element Biosciences has filed lawsuits against Illumina, alleging anticompetitive conduct, including exclusive dealing and predatory discounts, and patent infringement, further intensifying the competitive landscape. This heightened competition could lead to pricing pressures, reduced profit margins, and a potential loss of market leadership for Illumina.
  3. Geopolitical Risks and Trade Restrictions: Illumina is exposed to geopolitical risks, particularly concerning its operations in China. China has placed Illumina on an "unreliable entity list" and has initiated export restrictions on its sequencing instruments, citing discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises. This ban and associated restrictions are expected to significantly impact Illumina's revenue and prospects in the Greater China region, which accounts for a notable portion of its total revenue. Furthermore, new U.S. import tariffs are anticipated to increase Illumina's costs, adding to the financial pressures.

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Ultima Genomics' ultra-low-cost sequencing platform: Ultima Genomics emerged publicly in 2022 with a sequencing platform claiming a significantly lower cost per gigabase (as low as $1/Gb) compared to Illumina's current offerings. If its technology proves robust, scalable, and accurate in real-world large-scale applications, its drastically lower price point could exert immense pressure on Illumina's reagent pricing, market share, and profitability, especially for high-volume genomics centers. This represents a direct challenge to Illumina's long-standing economic advantage in high-throughput sequencing, akin to a disruptor fundamentally altering the cost structure of an industry.

Rapid advancements and increasing adoption of long-read sequencing technologies: Companies like Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) and Pacific Biosciences (PacBio) are continuously improving their long-read sequencing platforms (e.g., ONT's PromethION, PacBio's Revio). While historically complementing short-read sequencing, long-read technologies are rapidly enhancing accuracy, throughput, and cost-efficiency. As these platforms become more competitive across a broader range of applications, they could increasingly encroach upon traditional short-read strongholds where Illumina dominates, potentially displacing Illumina's technology in areas that value comprehensive genomic information (e.g., structural variants, repetitive regions, epigenetics) as long-read performance metrics approach or surpass short-read's across a wider set of applications.

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Illumina (ILMN) operates in the genomics market, with its main products and services centered around next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology and its applications in various fields, including clinical genomics and research. The company itself has provided estimates for its addressable markets.

  • Illumina estimates its total addressable genomics market to expand to $120 billion by 2027, globally.
  • For 2024, Illumina estimated that the clinical market (global) represents a total addressable market of more than $100 billion.
  • The research and applied market (global) has an estimated total addressable market of $25 billion for 2024, according to Illumina.

Further breakdowns of specific market segments in which Illumina participates include:

  • The global next-generation sequencing (NGS) market was valued between USD 9.29 billion and USD 23.3 billion in 2024, with projections to reach between USD 27.55 billion and USD 85.4 billion by 2032 or 2033, depending on the source. The North American NGS market held a significant share, for example, 55.65% in 2024.
  • The global genomics market, a broader category, was estimated at USD 42.64 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 66.85 billion by 2029. Another estimate placed the global genomics market at USD 27.75 billion in 2023, growing to USD 80.17 billion by 2032.
  • The global NGS oncology testing total addressable market is anticipated to grow to $75 billion by 2035. More specifically, the global clinical oncology next-generation sequencing (NGS) market was valued at USD 567.50 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1,421.37 million by 2033. Another source estimates this market at USD 744.4 million in 2025, projected to expand to USD 3.13 billion by 2035.
  • The global reproductive genetics market was estimated to be valued at USD 7.31 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 16.67 billion by 2032. Another report valued it at USD 5.1 billion in 2023, with a projection to reach USD 17.2 billion by 2033. The global preimplantation genetic testing market, a segment of reproductive genetics, was valued at US$690.2 million in 2025 and is projected to reach US$1,135.0 million by 2030.

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Illumina (ILMN) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
  • Accelerated Adoption of NovaSeq X Platform: The transition to and increasing adoption of the NovaSeq X instrument series and its high-throughput consumables are significant growth drivers, particularly within clinical markets. Illumina reported that over 75% of sequencing volume and over 50% of revenue have now transitioned to NovaSeq X high-throughput consumables, with this momentum expected to continue driving near-term revenue growth.
  • Expansion in Clinical Genomics and Diagnostic Markets: Strong growth in the clinical market, excluding China, is a primary driver. This is fueled by the broader adoption of comprehensive genomic profiling and the increasing use of sequencing-intensive applications like Minimal Residual Disease (MRD). The clinical market presents a significantly larger total addressable market (TAM) compared to research and is anticipated to grow at a faster rate.
  • Strategic Focus on Multiomics and Data Services: Illumina is expanding into new areas such as multiomics and data services. This includes the launch of products like "Illumina Protein Prep" and the introduction of "BioInsight," a new business aimed at leveraging genomic and multiomics data for drug discovery and research. The company's acquisition of SomaLogic is also expected to bolster its multiomics and proteomics offerings.
  • Stabilization and Growth in the Research Business: While the clinical sector is currently leading, Illumina anticipates a gradual return to growth in its research business as pricing challenges subside and market conditions stabilize.
  • International Market Expansion (excluding Greater China): Despite facing regulatory and export restrictions in Greater China, Illumina is experiencing revenue growth in other international markets, especially in clinical sequencing consumables. The company is strategically managing its global presence to capitalize on opportunities outside of China.

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Share Repurchases

  • Illumina announced an equity buyback program for $1.5 billion worth of its shares on November 6, 2024.
  • In Q2 2025, the company repurchased $380 million in shares, and as of the end of the quarter, approximately $800 million of its authorization remained.
  • From late 2024 through October 2025, Illumina completed nearly $942 million in share buybacks under its ongoing program.

Share Issuance

  • In Q2 2025, stockholders approved an amendment to the 2015 Stock and Incentive Compensation Plan to increase the maximum number of shares authorized for issuance by 7.9 million shares.

Inbound Investments

  • Illumina has raised a total of $28 million in funding over 11 rounds, with its latest funding round being a Grant (prize money) for an undisclosed amount on January 1, 2020.

Outbound Investments

  • Illumina completed the acquisition of GRAIL in August 2021 for an approximate $8 billion deal, following an initial announcement in September 2020. However, the company's board voted to divest GRAIL in June 2024 due to regulatory challenges.
  • In June 2025, Illumina entered a definitive agreement to acquire SomaLogic for $350 million in cash, with up to an additional $75 million in performance-based milestones and royalties, to expand its proteomics platform.
  • The company acquired Fluent BioSciences in July 2024 (for an undisclosed amount) to enhance its capabilities in single-cell sequencing.

Capital Expenditures

  • Illumina reported capital expenditures for free cash flow purposes of $31 million in Q3 2025, $30 million in Q2 2025, and $32 million in Q1 2025.
  • The company maintains significant annual R&D spending, just under $1 billion, to capture expanding genomics and multiomics opportunities.
  • Primary focuses for capital expenditures include the rollout of the NovaSeq X platform and investment in new technologies like spatial transcriptomics and single-cell analysis.

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Unique Key

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Peer Comparisons

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Financials

ILMNTMODHRAQGENBIOMedian
NameIllumina Thermo F.Danaher Agilent .Qiagen Bio-Rad . 
Mkt Price119.72542.83216.61129.5850.95301.50173.10
Mkt Cap18.3205.2153.936.411.08.127.4
Rev LTM4,28843,73524,2686,9482,0712,5585,618
Op Inc LTM7988,0514,6131,4795402231,138
FCF LTM1,0006,1115,0171,1524723371,076
FCF 3Y Avg5726,8115,6121,333402261952
CFO LTM1,1227,6516,3181,5596584921,340
CFO 3Y Avg7408,3076,8971,6945754261,217

Growth & Margins

ILMNTMODHRAQGENBIOMedian
NameIllumina Thermo F.Danaher Agilent .Qiagen Bio-Rad . 
Rev Chg LTM-2.3%3.2%2.2%6.7%5.3%-0.9%2.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.0%-0.3%-1.9%0.6%-2.1%-3.0%-2.0%
Rev Chg Q0.4%4.9%4.4%9.4%6.1%0.5%4.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.1%1.2%1.1%2.4%1.5%0.1%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM18.6%18.4%19.0%21.3%26.1%8.7%18.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.6%17.6%21.0%21.3%19.2%11.2%18.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%0.2%0.6%0.0%0.4%-0.0%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM26.2%17.5%26.0%22.4%31.8%19.2%24.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.0%19.3%30.3%25.1%28.7%16.3%22.2%
FCF/Rev LTM23.3%14.0%20.7%16.6%22.8%13.2%18.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.2%15.8%24.7%19.7%20.1%10.0%17.8%

Valuation

ILMNTMODHRAQGENBIOMedian
NameIllumina Thermo F.Danaher Agilent .Qiagen Bio-Rad . 
Mkt Cap18.3205.2153.936.411.08.127.4
P/S4.34.76.35.25.33.25.0
P/EBIT18.424.234.623.520.4-10.222.0
P/E26.131.243.927.927.3-12.027.6
P/CFO16.326.824.423.416.816.520.1
Total Yield3.8%3.2%2.3%4.4%3.7%-8.3%3.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.8%3.3%3.4%3.4%4.0%3.0%3.3%
D/E0.10.20.10.10.20.20.2
Net D/E0.10.20.10.00.0-0.00.1

Returns

ILMNTMODHRAQGENBIOMedian
NameIllumina Thermo F.Danaher Agilent .Qiagen Bio-Rad . 
1M Rtn-15.1%-12.3%-9.1%-12.8%5.5%-6.9%-10.7%
3M Rtn-1.8%-5.1%3.3%-11.5%16.8%-1.3%-1.6%
6M Rtn26.6%18.0%8.3%13.5%5.9%14.1%13.8%
12M Rtn7.8%-4.7%5.4%-10.0%23.7%-11.9%0.4%
3Y Rtn-37.1%-3.7%-3.0%-13.1%7.0%-35.3%-8.4%
1M Excs Rtn-20.4%-12.2%-8.2%-12.5%7.5%-7.1%-10.2%
3M Excs Rtn-4.2%-6.3%0.2%-13.6%13.5%-4.7%-4.5%
6M Excs Rtn16.0%10.2%0.1%4.8%-4.2%4.3%4.5%
12M Excs Rtn-18.3%-20.8%-11.6%-26.1%2.4%-28.5%-19.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-111.4%-75.0%-75.8%-83.1%-61.9%-104.6%-79.4%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Core Illumina4,4384,553  3,543
GRAIL9355   
Intersegment eliminations-26-24  -1
Helix    1
Total4,5054,584  3,543


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Core Illumina552481  1,008
GRAIL -4,657   
Intersegment eliminations -3  -24
Helix    1
Total552-4,179  985


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$119.72 
Market Cap ($ Bil)18.3 
First Trading Date07/28/2000 
Distance from 52W High-22.2% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$138.04$106.74
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA-13.3%12.2%
 3M1YR
Volatility40.0%49.4%
Downside Capture123.73151.43
Upside Capture95.26136.64
Correlation (SPY)32.8%44.5%
ILMN Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.360.941.031.241.121.19
Up Beta2.793.071.681.440.890.94
Down Beta-2.73-1.35-0.43-0.180.871.14
Up Capture318%259%217%271%194%145%
Bmk +ve Days11223471142430
Stock +ve Days11213163120359
Down Capture151%142%114%136%131%110%
Bmk -ve Days9192754109321
Stock -ve Days9203062130391

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ILMN
ILMN-0.8%50.4%0.14-
Sector ETF (XLV)7.7%17.3%0.2741.7%
Equity (SPY)15.4%19.4%0.6141.1%
Gold (GLD)73.9%24.8%2.191.2%
Commodities (DBC)8.9%16.6%0.3413.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.6%16.5%0.1032.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-27.1%44.7%-0.5716.2%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ILMN
ILMN-22.1%45.7%-0.40-
Sector ETF (XLV)8.1%14.5%0.3745.6%
Equity (SPY)14.4%17.0%0.6847.4%
Gold (GLD)21.4%16.9%1.0310.5%
Commodities (DBC)11.5%18.9%0.4912.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%18.8%0.1742.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)16.1%58.0%0.4919.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ILMN
ILMN-2.1%42.7%0.10-
Sector ETF (XLV)10.9%16.5%0.5449.8%
Equity (SPY)15.4%17.9%0.7449.4%
Gold (GLD)15.7%15.5%0.846.5%
Commodities (DBC)8.0%17.6%0.3715.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)6.0%20.7%0.2536.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)68.7%66.7%1.0812.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date1152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6.5 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 12312025-5.2%
Average Daily Volume1.9 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity153.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares4.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
1/13/20261.0%1.1% 
10/30/202524.8%22.3%28.8%
7/31/2025-7.8%-7.0%-2.7%
5/8/2025-4.8%1.7%6.8%
1/14/2025-5.4%-2.0%-28.2%
11/4/20241.0%-1.3%-7.2%
8/6/20244.1%2.9%11.5%
5/2/2024-4.9%-10.2%-16.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive898
# Negative161515
Median Positive2.5%3.8%9.3%
Median Negative-6.2%-8.1%-9.4%
Max Positive24.8%22.3%28.8%
Max Negative-14.6%-25.5%-28.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202510/31/202510-Q
06/30/202508/01/202510-Q
03/31/202505/09/202510-Q
12/31/202402/12/202510-K
09/30/202411/06/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202405/03/202410-Q
12/31/202302/16/202410-K
09/30/202311/13/202310-Q
06/30/202308/10/202310-Q
03/31/202305/05/202310-Q
12/31/202202/17/202310-K
09/30/202211/04/202210-Q
06/30/202208/11/202210-Q
03/31/202205/05/202210-Q
12/31/202102/18/202210-K

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Davies, Scott MChief Legal OfficerDirectSell12162025136.0932343,9572,434,242Form
2Wedel, Christensen JakobSVP, Strategy/Corp DevelopmentDirectSell12092025129.2754970,9691,415,765Form
3Gottlieb, Scott DirectBuy11052025122.1350061,0651,529,434Form
4Dhingra, AnkurSVP, Chief Financial OfficerDirectBuy514202581.216,100495,3812,022,616Form
5Thaysen, JacobChief Executive OfficerDirectBuy514202580.886,500525,7326,271,578Form

ILMN Trade Sentinel


Core Investment Debate

Turnaround vs. Overhang: NovaSeq Cycle vs. GRAIL Divestiture & Competition

BULL VIEW

The operational turnaround is real. Accelerating consumables revenue, strong NovaSeq placements, and upward analyst revisions prove the core business is strengthening and can power through near-term headwinds.

CORE TENSION

Can the accelerating, high-margin consumables business, driven by the new NovaSeq X cycle, generate enough growth to offset the forced, value-destructive divestiture of GRAIL and increasing competitive pressure?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BEARISH

The Bear case is winning. The 'Next 6 Month Tangible Risks' module quantifies multiple high-impact, high-probability negative catalysts, chiefly the mandated GRAIL divestiture and competitive cannibalization of high-margin consumables.

BEAR VIEW

The GRAIL divestiture is a forced sale in a tough market, guaranteeing a massive loss. Meanwhile, competitors are actively cannibalizing the core consumables business, structurally impairing future growth.

Potential Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Feb 5, 2026
Q4 2025 Earnings Call & FY2026 Guidance
Watch: FY2026 revenue growth guidance. Bears expect guidance below consensus due to pricing pressure and competitive dynamics, especially in high-throughput consumables.
Anytime (Deadline Q2 2026)
GRAIL Divestiture Announcement
Watch: Terms of the sale or spin-off. Specifically, the total value write-down and any ongoing cash funding required from Illumina.
Next 6 Months
U.S. Geopolitical Action on China
Watch: Escalation of Chinese genomics firms from the 'Unverified List' to the 'Entity List' or passage of a BIOSECURE-like bill.
Next 6 Months
Major Pharma 2026 Outlooks
Watch: Commentary on R&D budgets and capital expenditure discipline from large pharmaceutical customers in their earnings calls (e.g., Pfizer, Roche).
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
Jan 13, 2026
Preliminary Q4 & FY2025 Results
Details: Company announced preliminary Q4 revenue of ~$1.16B and FY25 revenue of ~$4.34B, beating analyst estimates. Ex-China growth was a positive signal at +7% for the quarter.
Modest 1.0% gain
Jan 6, 2026
Product Launch
Details: Illumina launched its Illumina Connected Multiomics software, a cloud-based platform designed to streamline the analysis of complex multiomic datasets for researchers.
Rose significantly by 4.1%
Dec 1, 2025
Strategic Collaboration
Details: Announced a collaboration and strategic investment in MyOme's MPH Trial, aimed at demonstrating the value of whole-genome sequencing in healthcare.
Slight -0.9% pullback
Oct 30, 2025
Q3 2025 Earnings
Details: Reported Q3 revenue of $1.08B and non-GAAP EPS of $1.34, beating consensus estimates. Company raised its full-year 2025 guidance, citing strong clinical market demand.
Surged +24.8%
Sep 9, 2025
New Product Presentation
Details: Presented data on the new NovaSeq X series at a healthcare conference, highlighting its capability to sequence over 20,000 genomes per year, driving down costs.
Fell notably by -2.8%
Aug 12, 2025
Investor Day
Details: Hosted an investor day focused on long-term strategy, emphasizing the shift towards clinical genomics and the potential of multiomics to drive future growth.
Rose significantly by 3.8%
Risk Management
Position Sizing

1% - 3%

CONSERVATIVE

Stock is trading with explosive volatility (4.7x S&P 500). The Bearish sentiment, driven by the GRAIL overhang and competitive threats, alongside a contested moat creates a poor risk/reward. Exposure must be capped until visibility improves.

Diversification Alternatives
A
SECTOR

Unlike ILMN, Agilent (A) has a more diversified business across diagnostics, genomics, and applied markets, offering greater stability. It lacks a major, value-destructive overhang like the GRAIL divestiture.

Core Thesis: A stable, high-quality compounder in the life science tools space. Its broad portfolio and deep customer relationships in pharma and industrial labs provide a resilient, recurring revenue base.
WAT
SECTOR

Waters Corp (WAT) is a focused leader in chromatography and mass spectrometry, avoiding the intense price competition of the sequencing market. It has a clean balance sheet and a consistent history of strong free cash flow.

Core Thesis: A high-margin, pure-play leader in essential laboratory equipment with a large installed base driving recurring revenue. The business is less exposed to volatile biotech funding cycles than pure sequencing players.