Illumina (ILMN)
Market Price (11/6/2025): $120.61 | Market Cap: $18.5 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Illumina (ILMN)
Market Price (11/6/2025): $120.61Market Cap: $18.5 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -120% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 27x |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.3% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -120% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 27x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.0% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
ILMN Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ILMN Return | 12% | 3% | -47% | -31% | -1% | -8% | -62% |
| Peers Return | 116% | 24% | -35% | 14% | -36% | -3% | 23% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ILMN Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 67% | 38% | 53% | 42% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ILMN Max Drawdown | -37% | -6% | -53% | -54% | -27% | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -8% | -52% | -21% | -43% | -40% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TMO, A, BRKR, TXG, PACB. See ILMN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/5/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ILMN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 465.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 623 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TMO, A, BRKR, TXG, PACB
In The Past
Illumina's stock fell -82.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2021. A -82.3% loss requires a 465.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ILMN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.2% | -1.2% | -3.3% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.6% | -11.6% | -11.7% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.4% | 7.4% | -7.0% |
| 02292020 | ILMN | Illumina | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 33.2% | 65.4% | -21.3% |
| 07312019 | ILMN | Illumina | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 27.9% | -30.1% |
| 12312016 | ILMN | Illumina | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 35.5% | 70.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.2% | -1.2% | -3.3% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.6% | -11.6% | -11.7% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.4% | 7.4% | -7.0% |
| 02292020 | ILMN | Illumina | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 33.2% | 65.4% | -21.3% |
| 07312019 | ILMN | Illumina | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.6% | 27.9% | -30.1% |
| 12312016 | ILMN | Illumina | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 35.5% | 70.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Illumina
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 81.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.4 |
| Rev LTM | 3,865 |
| Op Inc LTM | 563 |
| FCF LTM | 528 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 356 |
| CFO LTM | 644 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 500 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.4 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/EBIT | 22.1 |
| P/E | 29.7 |
| P/CFO | 26.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 29.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 49.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -21.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -41.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 15.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 21.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 29.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -36.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -115.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Illumina | 4,438 | 4,553 | 3,543 | ||
| GRAIL | 93 | 55 | |||
| Intersegment eliminations | -26 | -24 | -1 | ||
| Helix | 1 | ||||
| Total | 4,505 | 4,584 | 3,543 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Illumina | 552 | 481 | 1,008 | ||
| GRAIL | -4,657 | ||||
| Intersegment eliminations | -3 | -24 | |||
| Helix | 1 | ||||
| Total | 552 | -4,179 | 985 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 24.8% | ||
| 7/31/2025 | -7.8% | -7.0% | -2.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | -4.8% | 1.7% | 6.8% |
| 1/14/2025 | -5.4% | -2.0% | -28.2% |
| 11/4/2024 | 1.0% | -1.3% | -7.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | 4.1% | 2.9% | 11.5% |
| 5/2/2024 | -4.9% | -10.2% | -16.6% |
| 2/8/2024 | -3.8% | 1.9% | -3.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| # Negative | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 3.8% | 8.6% |
| Median Negative | -5.4% | -8.1% | -8.7% |
| Max Positive | 24.8% | 13.3% | 24.9% |
| Max Negative | -14.6% | -25.5% | -28.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 1/1/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 1/2/2022 |
External Quote Links
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