Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
Market Price (11/12/2025): $152.55 | Market Cap: $87.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Financial Exchanges & Data
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
Market Price (11/12/2025): $152.55Market Cap: $87.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Financial Exchanges & Data
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.1 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -18% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Sustainable Finance, and Artificial Intelligence. Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Sustainable Finance, and Artificial Intelligence. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -18% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
ICE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) experienced a decline of -17.5% in its stock price from approximately July 31, 2025, to November 12, 2025. Several key factors contributed to this downward movement.
1. The stock significantly underperformed compared to the broader market and its financial sector peers. Intercontinental Exchange's stock price dipped 1.4% year-to-date and declined 4.9% over the past 52 weeks, in contrast to the S&P 500 Index's 15.1% gains in 2025 and 18.5% surge over the past year. Furthermore, it underperformed the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), which saw an 8.5% uptick in 2025 and 13.3% gains over the past 52 weeks.
2. The company's Third Quarter 2025 earnings report revealed mixed results, including a decline in a key segment. While Intercontinental Exchange reported strong adjusted earnings per share of $1.71, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates, its exchange revenues experienced a 4% decline compared to the same quarter last year. This mixed performance, particularly the dip in exchange revenues, contributed to a 1.4% drop in the stock price immediately following the earnings release on October 30, 2025. Additionally, the mortgage technology segment reported a notably low operating margin of 4% on a GAAP basis for the quarter.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ICE Return | 26% | 20% | -24% | 27% | 17% | 3% | 77% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 33% | -13% | 12% | 10% | 16% | 85% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ICE Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 55% | 45% | 58% | 53% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ICE Max Drawdown | -28% | -5% | -34% | -7% | -3% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -10% | -30% | -19% | -12% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SCHW, CME, NDAQ, CBOE, MKTX. See ICE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/11/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ICE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 615 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 137 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -13.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 148 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 283.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1786 days | 1480 days |
Compare to SCHW, CME, NDAQ, CBOE, MKTX
In The Past
Intercontinental Exchange's stock fell -34.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/2/2021. A -34.9% loss requires a 53.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ICE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | BRO | Brown & Brown | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -4.2% |
| 10312025 | CPAY | Corpay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.6% | -5.6% | -5.6% |
| 10312025 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.7% | -2.7% | -2.7% |
| 10102025 | APO | Apollo Asset Management | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 03312023 | ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.3% | 33.7% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 23.7% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | BRO | Brown & Brown | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -4.2% |
| 10312025 | CPAY | Corpay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.6% | -5.6% | -5.6% |
| 10312025 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.7% | -2.7% | -2.7% |
| 10102025 | APO | Apollo Asset Management | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 03312023 | ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.3% | 33.7% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 23.7% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Intercontinental Exchange
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 161.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 68.7 |
| Rev LTM | 7,283 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,322 |
| FCF LTM | 1,222 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,627 |
| CFO LTM | 1,367 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,838 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 38.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 38.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 41.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 29.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 68.7 |
| P/S | 7.2 |
| P/EBIT | 20.0 |
| P/E | 29.0 |
| P/CFO | 16.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 44.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -25.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | 6,355 | 6,415 | 5,878 | 5,839 | 4,652 |
| Fixed Income and Data Services | 2,231 | 2,092 | 1,883 | 1,810 | 1,756 |
| Mortgage Technology | 1,317 | 1,129 | 1,407 | 595 | 139 |
| Total | 9,903 | 9,636 | 9,168 | 8,244 | 6,547 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchanges | 3,159 | 2,862 | 2,523 | 2,389 | 2,167 |
| Fixed Income and Data Services | 811 | 719 | 529 | 492 | 439 |
| Mortgage Technology | -276 | 57 | 397 | 152 | 67 |
| Total | 3,694 | 3,638 | 3,449 | 3,033 | 2,673 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | -1.4% | -2.9% | |
| 7/31/2025 | -0.5% | 1.2% | -4.6% |
| 5/1/2025 | 1.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% |
| 2/6/2025 | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.9% |
| 10/31/2024 | -6.4% | -6.4% | -3.3% |
| 8/1/2024 | -0.4% | -0.3% | 5.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | -1.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% |
| 2/8/2024 | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 15 | 8 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 3.1% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -1.4% | -3.0% | -3.3% |
| Max Positive | 4.7% | 6.7% | 17.9% |
| Max Negative | -7.5% | -13.9% | -8.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | SPRIESER JUDITH A | 9082025 | Sell | 174.07 | 1,500 | 261,098 | 3,406,284 | Form | |
| 1 | Farooqui Duriya M | 8292025 | Sell | 178.34 | 2,036 | 363,100 | 2,550,084 | Form | |
| 2 | Tirinnanzi Martha A | 8262025 | Sell | 179.76 | 610 | 109,654 | 632,575 | Form | |
| 3 | Gardiner Warren | Chief Financial Officer | 8222025 | Sell | 178.45 | 1,570 | 280,166 | 3,944,816 | Form |
| 4 | Bowen Sharon | 7292025 | Sell | 185.00 | 794 | 146,890 | 2,628,110 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
