Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
Market Price (10/18/2025): $153.25 | Market Cap: $88.0 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Financial Exchanges & Data
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
Market Price (10/18/2025): $153.25Market Cap: $88.0 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Financial Exchanges & Data
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, CFO LTM is 4.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.8 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -11%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -10.0% | |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, CFO LTM is 4.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.8 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 19% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -11%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -10.0% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
ICE Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
ICE Return | 26% | 20% | -24% | 27% | 17% | 4% | 83% |
Peers Return | 13% | 33% | -13% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 77% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
ICE Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 50% | 56% | |
Peers Win Rate | 57% | 55% | 45% | 58% | 53% | 62% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
ICE Max Drawdown | -28% | -5% | -34% | -7% | -3% | -4% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -10% | -30% | -19% | -12% | -10% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SCHW, CME, NDAQ, CBOE, MKTX. See ICE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | ICE | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -34.9% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 53.7% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 615 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -33.3% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 49.8% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 137 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -13.5% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 15.6% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 148 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -73.9% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 283.7% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 1786 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Intercontinental Exchange's stock fell -34.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/2/2021. A -34.9% loss requires a 53.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ICE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | HLNE | Hamilton Lane | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.4% | -12.4% | -12.7% |
09302025 | CNS | Cohen & Steers | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.1% | 6.1% | -1.6% |
09262025 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.4% | 2.4% | -2.1% |
09192025 | FDS | FactSet Research Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -4.9% |
09052025 | IBKR | Interactive Brokers | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
03312023 | ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.3% | 33.7% | 0.0% |
09302022 | ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 23.7% | -0.4% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | HLNE | Hamilton Lane | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.4% | -12.4% | -12.7% |
09302025 | CNS | Cohen & Steers | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.1% | 6.1% | -1.6% |
09262025 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.4% | 2.4% | -2.1% |
09192025 | FDS | FactSet Research Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -4.9% |
09052025 | IBKR | Interactive Brokers | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% |
03312023 | ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.3% | 33.7% | 0.0% |
09302022 | ICE | Intercontinental Exchange | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 23.7% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Intercontinental Exchange
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 162.43 |
Mkt Cap | 69.5 |
Rev LTM | 7,278 |
Op Inc LTM | 2,195 |
FCF LTM | 2,952 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 2,555 |
CFO LTM | 3,277 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 2,788 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 17.9% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
Rev Chg Q | 16.0% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
Op Mgn LTM | 37.5% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 38.6% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 42.9% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 41.3% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 36.5% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.9% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 69.5 |
P/S | 7.4 |
P/EBIT | 19.1 |
P/E | 28.2 |
P/CFO | 17.5 |
Total Yield | 4.5% |
Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
D/E | 0.1 |
Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -1.9% |
3M Rtn | -1.7% |
6M Rtn | 7.0% |
12M Rtn | 18.3% |
3Y Rtn | 67.0% |
1M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
3M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
6M Excs Rtn | -19.1% |
12M Excs Rtn | 4.4% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -17.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Exchanges | 6,355 | 6,415 | 5,878 | 5,839 | 4,652 |
Fixed Income and Data Services | 2,231 | 2,092 | 1,883 | 1,810 | 1,756 |
Mortgage Technology | 1,317 | 1,129 | 1,407 | 595 | 139 |
Total | 9,903 | 9,636 | 9,168 | 8,244 | 6,547 |
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Exchanges | 3,159 | 2,862 | 2,523 | 2,389 | 2,167 |
Fixed Income and Data Services | 811 | 719 | 529 | 492 | 439 |
Mortgage Technology | -276 | 57 | 397 | 152 | 67 |
Total | 3,694 | 3,638 | 3,449 | 3,033 | 2,673 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
7/31/2025 | -0.5% | 1.2% | -4.6% |
5/1/2025 | 1.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% |
2/6/2025 | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.9% |
10/31/2024 | -6.4% | -6.4% | -3.3% |
8/1/2024 | -0.4% | -0.3% | 5.7% |
5/2/2024 | -1.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% |
2/8/2024 | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% |
11/2/2023 | -1.8% | 0.8% | 5.5% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 10 | 16 | 15 |
# Negative | 14 | 8 | 9 |
Median Positive | 2.0% | 3.1% | 5.7% |
Median Negative | -1.3% | -2.7% | -3.3% |
Max Positive | 4.7% | 6.7% | 17.9% |
Max Negative | -7.5% | -13.9% | -8.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2022023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2032022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 10282021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | SPRIESER JUDITH A | 9082025 | Sell | 174.07 | 1,500 | 261,098 | 3,406,284 | Form | |
1 | Farooqui Duriya M | 8292025 | Sell | 178.34 | 2,036 | 363,100 | 2,550,084 | Form | |
2 | Tirinnanzi Martha A | 8262025 | Sell | 179.76 | 610 | 109,654 | 632,575 | Form | |
3 | Gardiner Warren | Chief Financial Officer | 8222025 | Sell | 178.45 | 1,570 | 280,166 | 3,944,816 | Form |
4 | Bowen Sharon | 7292025 | Sell | 185.00 | 794 | 146,890 | 2,628,110 | Form |
External Quote Links
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