Tearsheet

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)


Market Price (11/12/2025): $152.55 | Market Cap: $87.4 Bil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Financial Exchanges & Data

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)


Market Price (11/12/2025): $152.55
Market Cap: $87.4 Bil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Financial Exchanges & Data

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.1 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -18%
 
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 19%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Sustainable Finance, and Artificial Intelligence. Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 4.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.1 Bil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 19%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Sustainable Finance, and Artificial Intelligence. Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -18%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

ICE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) experienced a decline of -17.5% in its stock price from approximately July 31, 2025, to November 12, 2025. Several key factors contributed to this downward movement.

1. The stock significantly underperformed compared to the broader market and its financial sector peers. Intercontinental Exchange's stock price dipped 1.4% year-to-date and declined 4.9% over the past 52 weeks, in contrast to the S&P 500 Index's 15.1% gains in 2025 and 18.5% surge over the past year. Furthermore, it underperformed the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF), which saw an 8.5% uptick in 2025 and 13.3% gains over the past 52 weeks.

2. The company's Third Quarter 2025 earnings report revealed mixed results, including a decline in a key segment. While Intercontinental Exchange reported strong adjusted earnings per share of $1.71, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates, its exchange revenues experienced a 4% decline compared to the same quarter last year. This mixed performance, particularly the dip in exchange revenues, contributed to a 1.4% drop in the stock price immediately following the earnings release on October 30, 2025. Additionally, the mortgage technology segment reported a notably low operating margin of 4% on a GAAP basis for the quarter.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ICE Return26%20%-24%27%17%3%77%
Peers Return13%33%-13%12%10%16%85%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ICE Win Rate58%50%42%67%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate57%55%45%58%53%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ICE Max Drawdown-28%-5%-34%-7%-3%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-33%-10%-30%-19%-12%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SCHW, CME, NDAQ, CBOE, MKTX. See ICE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/11/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventICES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-34.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven53.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven615 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven137 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-13.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven15.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven148 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-73.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven283.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1786 days1480 days

Compare to SCHW, CME, NDAQ, CBOE, MKTX


In The Past

Intercontinental Exchange's stock fell -34.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/2/2021. A -34.9% loss requires a 53.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)

Better Bets than Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ICE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BRO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025BROBrown & BrownDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.5%-1.5%-4.2%
CPAY_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025CPAYCorpayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.0%8.0%0.0%
EEFT_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025EEFTEuronet WorldwideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.6%-5.6%-5.6%
GPN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GPNGlobal PaymentsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.7%-2.7%-2.7%
APO_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025APOApollo Asset ManagementDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.7%10.7%0.0%
ICE_3312023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312023ICEIntercontinental ExchangeMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.3%33.7%0.0%
ICE_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022ICEIntercontinental ExchangeDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%23.7%-0.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BRO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025BROBrown & BrownDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.5%-1.5%-4.2%
CPAY_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025CPAYCorpayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.0%8.0%0.0%
EEFT_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025EEFTEuronet WorldwideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.6%-5.6%-5.6%
GPN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GPNGlobal PaymentsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.7%-2.7%-2.7%
APO_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025APOApollo Asset ManagementDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.7%10.7%0.0%
ICE_3312023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312023ICEIntercontinental ExchangeMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.3%33.7%0.0%
ICE_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022ICEIntercontinental ExchangeDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%23.7%-0.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Intercontinental Exchange

Financials

ICESCHWCMENDAQCBOEMKTXMedian
NameIntercon.Charles .CME Nasdaq Cboe Glo.MarketAx. 
Mkt Price151.9996.12278.8487.83259.25171.40161.69
Mkt Cap87.1173.6100.350.427.16.368.7
Rev LTM12,55422,9146,3978,1684,5328397,283
Op Inc LTM4,793-4,1572,3221,3163462,322
FCF LTM4,078-1,3974,0842,098-1133461,222
FCF 3Y Avg3,5269,4373,6741,7281,0903022,627
CFO LTM4,876-7534,1612,335-424001,367
CFO 3Y Avg4,15110,0753,7561,9201,1503592,838

Growth & Margins

ICESCHWCMENDAQCBOEMKTXMedian
NameIntercon.Charles .CME Nasdaq Cboe Glo.MarketAx. 
Rev Chg LTM16.3%22.3%5.8%16.4%19.0%3.4%16.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.0%5.4%8.9%10.5%7.9%6.0%8.4%
Rev Chg Q12.6%26.6%-3.0%2.9%20.5%1.0%7.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.0%6.0%-0.7%0.7%4.6%0.3%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM38.2%-65.0%28.4%29.0%41.2%38.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg38.8%-63.1%28.1%28.1%42.0%38.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.7%--0.3%1.4%0.2%-0.3%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM38.8%-3.3%65.0%28.6%-0.9%47.6%33.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg37.8%54.3%63.3%27.2%30.1%45.1%41.4%
FCF/Rev LTM32.5%-6.1%63.8%25.7%-2.5%41.2%29.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg32.1%51.2%61.9%24.5%28.7%38.0%35.0%

Valuation

ICESCHWCMENDAQCBOEMKTXMedian
NameIntercon.Charles .CME Nasdaq Cboe Glo.MarketAx. 
Mkt Cap87.1173.6100.350.427.16.368.7
P/S6.97.615.76.26.07.67.2
P/EBIT18.0-20.021.320.517.020.0
P/E29.021.126.631.030.128.929.0
P/CFO17.9-230.524.121.6-641.715.916.9
Total Yield4.7%4.7%6.3%4.4%4.3%5.3%4.7%
Dividend Yield1.2%0.0%2.6%1.2%1.0%1.8%1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.3%7.9%4.5%4.8%5.3%3.9%4.6%
D/E0.20.20.00.20.10.00.1
Net D/E0.2-0.40.00.10.0-0.10.0

Returns

ICESCHWCMENDAQCBOEMKTXMedian
NameIntercon.Charles .CME Nasdaq Cboe Glo.MarketAx. 
1M Rtn-3.5%4.5%2.7%-1.2%5.9%-3.4%0.8%
3M Rtn-16.6%-2.6%1.6%-8.4%4.6%-8.9%-5.5%
6M Rtn-11.6%11.8%4.9%8.3%18.3%-19.3%6.6%
12M Rtn-2.2%24.6%28.9%11.6%31.1%-36.9%18.1%
3Y Rtn51.6%27.8%83.9%38.0%134.2%-37.6%44.8%
1M Excs Rtn-7.1%-0.1%-0.1%-4.6%3.6%-3.8%-1.9%
3M Excs Rtn-21.9%-5.3%-3.6%-13.7%0.1%-15.2%-9.5%
6M Excs Rtn-27.9%-4.5%-11.4%-8.0%2.0%-35.6%-9.7%
12M Excs Rtn-16.2%18.4%16.6%-0.9%16.7%-51.5%7.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-17.9%-54.2%6.2%-33.5%28.5%-106.1%-25.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Exchanges6,3556,4155,8785,8394,652
Fixed Income and Data Services2,2312,0921,8831,8101,756
Mortgage Technology1,3171,1291,407595139
Total9,9039,6369,1688,2446,547


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Exchanges3,1592,8622,5232,3892,167
Fixed Income and Data Services811719529492439
Mortgage Technology-2765739715267
Total3,6943,6383,4493,0332,673


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,974,231
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025-4.0%
Average Daily Volume4,982,031
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.20
Basic Shares Quantity573,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/2025-1.4%-2.9% 
7/31/2025-0.5%1.2%-4.6%
5/1/20251.7%5.1%7.0%
2/6/20254.3%3.6%5.9%
10/31/2024-6.4%-6.4%-3.3%
8/1/2024-0.4%-0.3%5.7%
5/2/2024-1.7%3.7%4.1%
2/8/20244.7%6.7%8.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91614
# Negative15810
Median Positive2.1%3.1%5.8%
Median Negative-1.4%-3.0%-3.3%
Max Positive4.7%6.7%17.9%
Max Negative-7.5%-13.9%-8.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022202202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021203202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0SPRIESER JUDITH A 9082025Sell174.071,500261,0983,406,284Form
1Farooqui Duriya M 8292025Sell178.342,036363,1002,550,084Form
2Tirinnanzi Martha A 8262025Sell179.76610109,654632,575Form
3Gardiner WarrenChief Financial Officer8222025Sell178.451,570280,1663,944,816Form
4Bowen Sharon 7292025Sell185.00794146,8902,628,110Form