International Business Machines (IBM)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $303.47 | Market Cap: $283.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services
International Business Machines (IBM)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $303.47Market Cap: $283.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: IT Consulting & Other Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.2%, Dist 3Y High is -3.2% | |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.2% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Crypto & Blockchain. Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 2.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Cybersecurity, and Crypto & Blockchain. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.2%, Dist 3Y High is -3.2% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
IBM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining International Business Machines (IBM) stock movement of 21.9% from approximately July 31, 2025, to November 14, 2025:
1. Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings Exceeded Expectations and Raised Guidance.
IBM announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 22, 2025, reporting that it had surpassed expectations for revenue, profit, and free cash flow. The company also raised its full-year outlook for both revenue growth and free cash flow, signaling robust financial health and a positive future trajectory.
2. Breakthroughs in Quantum Computing Unveiled.
On November 12, 2025, IBM revealed significant progress in quantum computing at its Quantum Developer Conference. Key announcements included the IBM Quantum Nighthawk processor, designed for quantum advantage by the end of 2026, and the IBM Quantum Loon, which demonstrates essential hardware elements for future fault-tolerant quantum computing by 2029. This news contributed to IBM's stock reaching an all-time high.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| IBM Return | -1% | 16% | 11% | 22% | 39% | 42% | 207% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 30% | -30% | 56% | 13% | 13% | 136% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| IBM Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 60% | 32% | 60% | 60% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| IBM Max Drawdown | -29% | -6% | -9% | -12% | -3% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -6% | -41% | -6% | -21% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, ORCL, SAP, INTC, GLOB. See IBM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | IBM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 356 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 974 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1858 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 398 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MSFT, ORCL, SAP, INTC, GLOB
In The Past
International Business Machines's stock fell -20.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/11/2021. A -20.2% loss requires a 25.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to IBM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.0% | -5.0% | -5.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.4% | -1.4% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.0% | -1.0% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 10312018 | IBM | International Business Machines | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 24.8% | 21.5% | -5.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.0% | -5.0% | -5.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.4% | -1.4% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.0% | -1.0% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 10312018 | IBM | International Business Machines | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 24.8% | 21.5% | -5.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for International Business Machines
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 234.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 288.9 |
| Rev LTM | 56,228 |
| Op Inc LTM | 10,580 |
| FCF LTM | 3,307 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,662 |
| CFO LTM | 11,028 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 12,228 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 288.9 |
| P/S | 6.2 |
| P/EBIT | 27.6 |
| P/E | 38.7 |
| P/CFO | 23.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 124.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 59.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software | 25,011 | 25,037 | 23,426 | 22,927 | 22,891 |
| Consulting | 20,884 | 19,107 | 17,844 | 16,257 | 16,798 |
| Infrastructure | 14,593 | 15,288 | 14,188 | 14,533 | 7,604 |
| Financing | 741 | 645 | 774 | 975 | 1,400 |
| Other-divested businesses | 397 | 318 | 785 | 101 | 930 |
| Other revenue | 235 | 135 | 335 | 387 | 162 |
| Global Technology Services | 27,361 | ||||
| Total | 61,861 | 60,530 | 57,352 | 55,180 | 77,146 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software | 59,811 | 57,186 | 58,420 | 58,558 | 58,342 |
| Consulting | 15,089 | 13,481 | 11,914 | 10,548 | 10,136 |
| Financing | 14,409 | 15,757 | 16,880 | 24,974 | 29,568 |
| Cash and marketable securities | 12,907 | 8,138 | 6,222 | 12,463 | 7,308 |
| Infrastructure | 11,991 | 12,243 | 11,766 | 12,378 | 4,590 |
| Pension assets | 7,506 | 8,236 | 9,848 | 7,557 | 6,865 |
| Deferred tax assets | 6,468 | 6,078 | 7,158 | 8,175 | 4,995 |
| Other | 3,563 | 3,740 | 4,530 | 3,514 | 3,077 |
| Operating right-of-use assets | 2,085 | 1,586 | 1,945 | 2,368 | 3,530 |
| Plant, other property and equipment | 1,838 | 1,760 | 2,196 | 2,449 | 2,262 |
| Other-divested businesses | 601 | 100 | 1,109 | 254 | 1,906 |
| Elimination of internal transactions | -1,028 | -1,062 | -1,608 | -4,686 | -4,317 |
| Notes and accounts receivable | 1,622 | 1,655 | 1,488 | ||
| Total assets of discontinued operations | 15,764 | ||||
| Global Technology Services | 22,436 | ||||
| Total | 135,240 | 127,243 | 132,002 | 155,971 | 152,186 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | -0.9% | 7.2% | |
| 7/23/2025 | -7.6% | -7.7% | -14.5% |
| 4/23/2025 | -6.6% | -1.5% | 6.0% |
| 1/29/2025 | 13.0% | 15.2% | 11.1% |
| 10/23/2024 | -6.2% | -12.0% | -3.7% |
| 7/24/2024 | 4.3% | 4.4% | 7.4% |
| 4/24/2024 | -8.3% | -10.7% | -6.4% |
| 1/24/2024 | 9.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -7.3% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 13.0% | 15.2% | 20.7% |
| Max Negative | -9.9% | -12.0% | -14.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7252023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4252023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7252022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Thomas Robert David | Senior Vice President | 3032025 | Sell | 253.01 | 26,543 | 6,715,639 | 11,387,282 | Form |
| 1 | FARR DAVID N | 2282025 | Buy | 249.00 | 1,200 | 298,800 | 2,056,242 | Form | |
| 2 | ZOLLAR ALFRED W | 11132024 | Buy | 210.62 | 936 | 197,139 | 197,139 | Form | |
| 3 | LAMOREAUX NICKLE JACLYN | Senior Vice President | 11082024 | Sell | 215.20 | 3,600 | 774,727 | 5,463,965 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |