Tearsheet

International Business Machines (IBM)


Market Price (10/23/2025): $268.88 | Market Cap: $250.3 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services

International Business Machines (IBM)


Market Price (10/23/2025): $268.88
Market Cap: $250.3 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: IT Consulting & Other Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.2%, Dist 3Y High is -2.2%
 
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 2.3%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil
1 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 2.3%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.2%, Dist 3Y High is -2.2%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

IBM Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
IBM Return-1%16%11%22%39%33%181%
Peers Return31%30%-30%56%13%23%157%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
IBM Win Rate58%58%50%67%75%44% 
Peers Win Rate67%60%32%60%60%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
IBM Max Drawdown-29%-6%-9%-12%-3%-1% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-6%-41%-6%-21%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, ORCL, SAP, INTC, GLOB. See IBM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/22/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventIBMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-20.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven356 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven974 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-40.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven69.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1858 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-44.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven81.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven398 days1480 days

Compare to MSFT, ORCL, SAP, INTC, GLOB


In The Past

International Business Machines's stock fell -20.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/11/2021. A -20.2% loss requires a 25.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About International Business Machines (IBM)

Better Bets than International Business Machines (IBM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to IBM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ADBE_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025ADBEAdobeMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.4%1.4%-6.7%
CRM_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025CRMSalesforceMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
11.1%11.1%-0.6%
MPWR_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025MPWRMonolithic Power SystemsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
11.7%11.7%-1.8%
POWI_9262025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE09262025POWIPower IntegrationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
11.7%11.7%-13.4%
ROP_9262025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09262025ROPRoper TechnologiesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
3.2%3.2%-0.3%
IBM_10312018_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312018IBMInternational Business MachinesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
24.8%21.5%-5.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ADBE_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025ADBEAdobeMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.4%1.4%-6.7%
CRM_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025CRMSalesforceMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
11.1%11.1%-0.6%
MPWR_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025MPWRMonolithic Power SystemsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
11.7%11.7%-1.8%
POWI_9262025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE09262025POWIPower IntegrationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
11.7%11.7%-13.4%
ROP_9262025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09262025ROPRoper TechnologiesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
3.2%3.2%-0.3%
IBM_10312018_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312018IBMInternational Business MachinesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
24.8%21.5%-5.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for International Business Machines

Financials

IBMMSFTORCLSAPINTCGLOBMedian
NameInternat.MicrosoftOracle SAP Intel Globant  
Mkt Price287.51520.54272.66276.2236.9259.60274.44
Mkt Cap267.63,867.6770.5322.1161.32.6294.8
Rev LTM64,038281,72459,01835,88753,0702,48256,044
Op Inc LTM10,929128,52818,6679,309-4,39718710,119
FCF LTM11,64671,611-5,8806,399-10,9431553,277
FCF 3Y Avg11,34668,3864,9496,132-13,3571475,540
CFO LTM13,282136,16221,5347,18910,08227611,682
CFO 3Y Avg13,104114,09719,4686,93510,45227511,778

Growth & Margins

IBMMSFTORCLSAPINTCGLOBMedian
NameInternat.MicrosoftOracle SAP Intel Globant  
Rev Chg LTM2.7%14.9%9.7%10.3%-3.7%8.7%9.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg2.4%12.5%10.2%8.7%-9.4%17.1%9.5%
Rev Chg Q7.7%18.1%12.2%8.9%0.2%4.5%8.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.9%4.3%2.8%2.1%0.0%1.1%2.0%
Op Mgn LTM17.1%45.6%31.6%25.9%-8.3%7.5%21.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg15.9%44.0%30.3%22.1%-3.9%9.5%19.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.7%0.4%0.2%1.2%-0.5%-2.0%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM20.7%48.3%36.5%20.0%19.0%11.1%20.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg21.0%46.0%35.6%21.0%19.3%12.4%21.0%
FCF/Rev LTM18.2%25.4%-10.0%17.8%-20.6%6.2%12.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg18.2%27.9%9.8%18.6%-24.7%6.7%14.0%

Valuation

IBMMSFTORCLSAPINTCGLOBMedian
NameInternat.MicrosoftOracle SAP Intel Globant  
Mkt Cap267.63,867.6770.5322.1161.32.6294.8
P/S4.213.713.19.03.01.16.6
P/EBIT33.130.742.630.9-14.915.230.8
P/E45.938.061.949.2-7.924.041.9
P/CFO20.128.435.844.816.09.624.3
Total Yield4.5%3.3%2.3%2.0%-12.4%4.2%2.8%
Dividend Yield2.3%0.6%0.7%0.0%0.3%0.0%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.8%2.2%1.6%2.6%-10.8%2.5%2.4%
D/E0.30.00.10.00.30.20.2
Net D/E0.2-0.00.1-0.00.20.10.1

Returns

IBMMSFTORCLSAPINTCGLOBMedian
NameInternat.MicrosoftOracle SAP Intel Globant  
1M Rtn5.9%1.2%-16.8%4.1%28.4%3.7%3.9%
3M Rtn2.6%3.1%12.9%-5.0%57.2%-33.9%2.9%
6M Rtn18.7%39.5%108.3%2.6%79.3%-46.9%29.1%
12M Rtn27.3%22.7%57.1%19.9%64.8%-72.8%25.0%
3Y Rtn148.5%120.3%289.2%215.6%43.9%-65.7%134.4%
1M Excs Rtn5.0%1.6%-13.6%3.5%25.2%4.4%4.0%
3M Excs Rtn5.8%-3.2%7.2%-8.8%57.9%-38.2%1.3%
6M Excs Rtn-5.9%14.9%83.7%-22.0%54.7%-71.5%4.5%
12M Excs Rtn13.1%11.2%43.4%6.7%47.9%-87.6%12.1%
3Y Excs Rtn83.5%42.4%240.1%148.1%-35.3%-147.9%63.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Software25,01123,62923,42622,92722,891
Consulting20,88420,05817,84416,25716,798
Infrastructure14,59315,28814,18814,5337,604
Financing7416457749751,400
Other-divested businesses397774785101930
Other revenue235135335387162
Global Technology Services    27,361
Total61,86160,52957,35255,18077,146


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Software59,81155,82258,42058,55858,342
Consulting15,08914,26111,91410,54810,136
Financing14,40915,75716,88024,97429,568
Cash and marketable securities12,907  12,4637,308
Infrastructure11,99112,24311,76612,3784,590
Pension assets7,506  7,5576,865
Deferred tax assets6,468  8,1754,995
Other3,563  3,5143,077
Operating right-of-use assets2,085  2,3683,530
Plant, other property and equipment1,838  2,4492,262
Other-divested businesses601  2541,906
Elimination of internal transactions-1,028  -4,686-4,317
Notes and accounts receivable   1,6551,488
Total assets of discontinued operations   15,764 
Global Technology Services    22,436
Total135,24098,08398,980155,971152,186


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,197,030
Short Interest: % Change Since 915202510.7%
Average Daily Volume6,149,545
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.63
Basic Shares Quantity930,807,276
Short % of Basic Shares1.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/23/2025-7.6%-7.7%-14.5%
4/23/2025-6.6%-1.5%6.0%
1/29/202513.0%15.2%11.1%
10/23/2024-6.2%-12.0%-3.7%
7/24/20244.3%4.4%7.4%
4/24/2024-8.3%-10.7%-6.4%
1/24/20249.5%5.6%7.8%
10/25/20234.9%6.1%14.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131315
# Negative11119
Median Positive4.7%4.6%6.0%
Median Negative-6.2%-6.9%-6.4%
Max Positive13.0%15.2%20.7%
Max Negative-9.9%-12.0%-14.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024730202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023725202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023425202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221025202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022725202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022426202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211105202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Thomas Robert DavidSenior Vice President3032025Sell253.0126,5436,715,63911,387,282Form
1FARR DAVID N2282025Buy249.001,200298,8002,056,242Form
2ZOLLAR ALFRED W11132024Buy210.62936197,139197,139Form
3LAMOREAUX NICKLE JACLYNSenior Vice President11082024Sell215.203,600774,7275,463,965Form