Heartland Express (HTLD)
Market Price (11/8/2025): $7.63 | Market Cap: $595.7 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Heartland Express (HTLD)
Market Price (11/8/2025): $7.63Market Cap: $595.7 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -92%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -126% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -44 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.8% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23% | |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.4% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -92%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -126% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -44 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.8% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.4% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -10% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
HTLD Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HTLD Return | -14% | -4% | -8% | -7% | -21% | -32% | -62% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 41% | -15% | 54% | 10% | -7% | 145% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HTLD Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 33% | 42% | 33% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 68% | 40% | 62% | 53% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HTLD Max Drawdown | -25% | -10% | -23% | -24% | -30% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -3% | -30% | -7% | -14% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XPO, R, WERN, ODFL, JBHT. See HTLD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/7/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HTLD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -25.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 72 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -34.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1724 days | 1480 days |
Compare to XPO, R, WERN, ODFL, JBHT
In The Past
Heartland Express's stock fell -41.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/5/2021. A -41.6% loss requires a 71.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HTLD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.8% | -10.8% | -10.8% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -17.5% | -17.5% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.9% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.6% | -7.6% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.8% | -10.8% | -10.8% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -17.5% | -17.5% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.2% | -1.2% | -1.9% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.6% | -7.6% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Heartland Express
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 140.34 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.7 |
| Rev LTM | 6,821 |
| Op Inc LTM | 766 |
| FCF LTM | 100 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -56 |
| CFO LTM | 1,205 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,179 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.7 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 17.3 |
| P/E | 28.2 |
| P/CFO | 9.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.1% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -20.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -1.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -34.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -71.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 0.3% | ||
| 7/29/2025 | -3.2% | -8.2% | 2.4% |
| 5/2/2025 | -1.0% | 8.5% | 15.4% |
| 2/3/2025 | 1.7% | 2.0% | -10.0% |
| 10/29/2024 | -0.5% | -2.0% | 13.2% |
| 7/26/2024 | -1.7% | -5.8% | -5.9% |
| 4/30/2024 | -0.2% | 9.4% | 10.6% |
| 2/2/2024 | -1.8% | 2.2% | -7.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 1.4% | 2.2% | 7.2% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -3.5% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 3.7% | 13.6% | 19.8% |
| Max Negative | -5.4% | -8.2% | -10.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11042021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | GERDIN MICHAEL J | Chief Executive Officer | 8182025 | Buy | 8.20 | 1,314 | 10,775 | 11,998,092 | Form |
| 1 | PRATT JAMES G | 5162025 | Buy | 8.96 | 6,571 | 58,876 | 268,800 | Form | |
| 2 | Ann S. Gerdin Revocable Trust | 5142025 | Buy | 8.95 | 167,644 | 1,500,045 | 10,867,103 | Form | |
| 3 | Hupfeld Amanda | 5142025 | Buy | 8.76 | 2,000 | 17,520 | 17,520 | Form | |
| 4 | GERDIN MICHAEL J | Chief Executive Officer | 5132025 | Buy | 8.50 | 148,272 | 1,260,668 | 3,726,449 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |