HP (HPQ)
Market Price (11/24/2025): $23.98 | Market Cap: $22.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
HP (HPQ)
Market Price (11/24/2025): $23.98Market Cap: $22.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 2.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.6%, FCF Yield is 13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.2% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Future of Work. Themes include Endpoint Protection, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 2.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.6%, FCF Yield is 13% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Future of Work. Themes include Endpoint Protection, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HPQ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
**1. Lowered Fiscal Year 2025 Guidance:** In June 2025, HP Inc. revised its fiscal year 2025 earnings per share (EPS) outlook downwards and reduced its free cash flow guidance by approximately $600 million, attributing these adjustments to increased costs and prevailing macroeconomic pressures.
**2. Persistent Weakness in the Printing Division:** Throughout the specified period, HP's Printing division consistently faced challenges, with projections and actual results indicating softness and decline, largely due to weakened consumer demand in China and broader macroeconomic headwinds.
**3. Multiple Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions:** Several prominent financial analysts either downgraded HPQ's stock rating or lowered their price targets. This included Evercore ISI downgrading the stock to "In Line" in September 2025, followed by Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America reducing their price targets in November 2025, with Morgan Stanley further downgrading its rating to "Underweight".
**4. Concerns Regarding PC Demand Sustainability:** Analysts raised concerns about the long-term sustainability of the recent strength observed in the PC market. It was suggested that some of the demand might be a pull-forward effect from customers purchasing ahead of anticipated tariffs, potentially creating risks for demand estimates in fiscal year 2026.
**5. Mixed Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Earnings:** While HP met analyst expectations for EPS and exceeded revenue estimates for its third fiscal quarter of 2025, the reported EPS still reflected a year-over-year decline. This mixed performance, particularly the decline in earnings, contributed to investor caution despite some positive revenue figures.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HPQ Return | 24% | 57% | -26% | 16% | 12% | -24% | 42% |
| Peers Return | 21% | 34% | -31% | 66% | 17% | 57% | 243% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HPQ Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 50% | 75% | 33% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 65% | 37% | 67% | 65% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HPQ Max Drawdown | -36% | -2% | -33% | -2% | -7% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -6% | -40% | -4% | -17% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AAPL, INTC, DELL, MSI, WDC. See HPQ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/21/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HPQ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 261 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -39.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 487 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -52.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 381 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AAPL, INTC, DELL, MSI, WDC
In The Past
HP's stock fell -38.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/1/2022. A -38.8% loss requires a 63.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HPQ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.5% | -10.5% | -15.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -4.0% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.7% | -4.7% | -8.2% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -5.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.9% | -7.9% | -8.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.5% | -10.5% | -15.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -4.0% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.7% | -4.7% | -8.2% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -5.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.9% | -7.9% | -8.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for HP
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 130.85 |
| Mkt Cap | 72.3 |
| Rev LTM | 54,075 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,239 |
| FCF LTM | 2,614 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,572 |
| CFO LTM | 5,586 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,490 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 72.3 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 21.6 |
| P/E | 27.6 |
| P/CFO | 20.9 |
| Total Yield | 4.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 24.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 62.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/27/2025 | 4.6% | 7.8% | -0.5% |
| 5/28/2025 | -8.3% | -7.4% | -7.9% |
| 2/27/2025 | -6.8% | -9.5% | -14.9% |
| 11/26/2024 | -11.4% | -7.0% | -14.2% |
| 8/28/2024 | 2.0% | -1.0% | 2.7% |
| 5/29/2024 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% |
| 2/28/2024 | -1.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% |
| 11/21/2023 | 2.8% | 4.3% | 9.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.9% | 4.6% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -6.6% | -4.4% | -8.2% |
| Max Positive | 17.0% | 13.3% | 17.8% |
| Max Negative | -12.3% | -11.7% | -29.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 8282025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5292025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 2282025 | 10-Q 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12132024 | 10-K 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2282024 | 10-Q 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12182023 | 10-K 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9112023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5312023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3012023 | 10-Q 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12062022 | 10-K 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9022022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6032022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3072022 | 10-Q 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12092021 | 10-K 10/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |