Harley-Davidson (HOG)
Market Price (11/24/2025): $23.37 | Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers
Harley-Davidson (HOG)
Market Price (11/24/2025): $23.37Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Motorcycle Manufacturers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 21%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 17%, FCF Yield is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -113% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 122% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 21%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 17%, FCF Yield is 14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -113% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 122% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.7% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
HOG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The -3.1% movement in Harley-Davidson (HOG) stock during the approximate period from July 31, 2025, to November 24, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors impacting the company's financial outlook and sales performance.
1. Withdrawal of 2025 Financial Outlook Amid Tariff Uncertainties. On May 1, 2025, Harley-Davidson retracted its full-year 2025 financial forecast, citing ongoing uncertainties surrounding global tariffs and broader macroeconomic conditions. This decision was primarily driven by potential U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs and retaliatory EU measures that could amount to an additional $175 million in annual costs for the company, creating significant investor uncertainty leading into and within the specified period.
2. Persistent Decline in Global Retail Motorcycle Sales. Despite some positive financial reporting, Harley-Davidson continued to experience declines in its core motorcycle sales. Global retail sales of new motorcycles were down 6% year-over-year in Q3 2025, with North American retail sales falling 5% and international retail performance dropping 9%. This reflected ongoing soft demand and the impact of high interest rates on consumer purchasing power. Prior to this, Q2 2025 projections also anticipated a decline in Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) revenue by up to 5% due to weak demand.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HOG Return | 0% | 4% | 12% | -10% | -17% | -21% | -30% |
| Peers Return | 189% | 58% | -34% | 29% | 21% | 12% | 423% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HOG Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 65% | 33% | 52% | 56% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HOG Max Drawdown | -59% | -13% | -19% | -37% | -18% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -10% | -45% | -19% | -20% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TSLA, GM, F, HOG. See HOG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/21/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HOG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 234 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -88.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 800.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1882 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TSLA, GM, F, HOG
In The Past
Harley-Davidson's stock fell -50.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2023. A -50.0% loss requires a 99.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HOG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.7% | -4.7% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -7.7% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| 06302020 | HOG | Harley-Davidson | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 53.6% | 94.4% | -4.1% |
| 12312018 | HOG | Harley-Davidson | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 13.6% | -9.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.7% | -4.7% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -7.7% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| 06302020 | HOG | Harley-Davidson | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 53.6% | 94.4% | -4.1% |
| 12312018 | HOG | Harley-Davidson | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 13.6% | -9.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Harley-Davidson
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 46.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 58.7 |
| Rev LTM | 141,534 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,244 |
| FCF LTM | 3,613 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,632 |
| CFO LTM | 18,087 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 15,218 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 58.7 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 9.9 |
| P/E | 16.3 |
| P/CFO | 3.9 |
| Total Yield | 9.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| D/E | 1.9 |
| Net D/E | 1.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 48.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -13.9% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -6.5% | -6.9% | |
| 7/30/2025 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 27.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | 2.8% | 2.5% | 8.0% |
| 2/5/2025 | -1.6% | -2.2% | -4.4% |
| 10/24/2024 | -7.2% | -5.6% | -3.8% |
| 7/25/2024 | 7.4% | 10.7% | 7.1% |
| 4/25/2024 | -15.7% | -12.8% | -10.9% |
| 2/8/2024 | 1.1% | 6.7% | 11.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 8.7% | 8.4% | 10.7% |
| Median Negative | -6.5% | -5.6% | -8.0% |
| Max Positive | 22.1% | 18.9% | 42.9% |
| Max Negative | -15.7% | -12.8% | -11.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/25/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/26/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/27/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |