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Harley-Davidson (HOG)

Market Price (10/21/2025): $26.685 | Market Cap: $3.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers

Harley-Davidson (HOG)

Market Price (10/21/2025): $26.685
Market Cap: $3.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Motorcycle Manufacturers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 25%		 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105%		 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 164%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%		  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -19%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 43%		  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 25%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 43%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 164%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -25%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -19%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

HOGS&P 500
REVENUE GROWTHVERY POOR
Rev LTM ($ Bil)4.5
Rev Chg Q-19.3%6.1%
Rev Chg LTM-24.8%5.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-4.4%5.4%
PROFITABILITYPOOR
Op Inc LTM ($ Bil)0.2
Op Mgn LTM4.1%18.6%
CFO LTM ($ Bil)1.0
CFO/Rev LTM22.3%20.4%
Net Inc LTM ($ Bil)0.2
Net Inc Mgn5.4%12.7%
VALUATIONLOW
P/S0.73.2
P/CFO3.315.9
P/FCF3.920.7
P/E13.424.0
STABILITYPOOR
Debt/Equity2.130.22
Cash/Assets0.130.07

HOG Stock

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
HOG Return0%4%12%-10%-17%-10%-20%
Peers Return156%58%-43%30%16%15%304%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HOG Win Rate50%50%42%50%50%33% 
Peers Win Rate55%68%32%52%48%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HOG Max Drawdown-59%-13%-19%-37%-18%-30% 
Peers Max Drawdown-38%-8%-47%-14%-20%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TSLA, TM, GM, VWAGY, F. See HOG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/20/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventHOGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-50.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven99.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven147.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven234 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-51.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven107.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-88.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven800.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1882 days1480 days


How Low Can It Go?

Harley-Davidson's stock fell -50.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/2/2023. A -50.0% loss requires a 99.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

Interactive Breakdown

Harley-Davidson Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Harley-Davidson (HOG)

 HOGBetter Performance than HOG
MetricValueIndustry (Motorcycle Manufacturers)
Rev Chg LTM-24.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-4.4%
Op Mgn LTM4.1%
CFO/Rev LTM22.3%
FCF/Rev LTM18.4%
Total Yield10.2%
 HOGBetter Performance than HOG
MetricValueAll Other Sectors
Rev Chg LTM-24.8%NVDA (71.6%), AAPL (6.0%), MSFT (14.9%), GOOGL (13.1%), META (19.4%)
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-4.4%NVDA (92.0%), AAPL (1.8%), MSFT (12.5%), GOOGL (10.2%), META (13.0%)
Op Mgn LTM4.1%NVDA (58.1%), AAPL (31.9%), MSFT (45.6%), GOOGL (32.7%), META (42.9%)
CFO/Rev LTM22.3%NVDA (46.6%), AAPL (26.6%), MSFT (48.3%), GOOGL (36.0%), META (56.4%)
FCF/Rev LTM18.4%NVDA (43.6%), AAPL (23.5%), MSFT (25.4%), META (30.7%), AVGO (41.6%)
Total Yield10.2%MRK (11.3%), VZ (17.1%), PFE (12.8%), TD (15.2%), PGR (10.3%)
 Best Bets In Consumer Discretionary Sector
 HOGABNB BKNG MCD LOPE PRDO ALSN CROX GRMN WH YUM
What You Pay           
P/E13.429.834.726.225.215.49.019.430.618.128.9
P/EBIT10.730.021.418.219.711.36.716.927.310.716.9
What You Get           
Rev Chg Q-19.3%12.7%16.0%5.4%8.8%26.6%-0.2%3.4%20.4%8.2%9.6%
Rev Chg LTM-24.8%10.2%11.7%1.2%6.5%6.3%2.7%2.0%19.6%3.9%11.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-4.4%16.3%19.9%3.4%5.8%1.7%8.0%14.5%11.0%-3.2%5.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.1%40.5%34.6%27.2%22.6%21.0%20.9%19.8%19.4%19.4%19.0%

[1] Choosing top 10 best bets from each sector quarterly is an alpha producing strategy vs sector benchmark
[2] Historical annualized return of 14%, alpha of 2.9%, and sharpe of 0.61

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopicDate
0DASHBOARDS  
1Harley-Davidson Earnings Notes  
2With Harley-Davidson Stock Down 10% In A Month, How Confident Are You?Return 
3HOG's 13% Single Week Rise Brings Valuations Into Focus - Is TMUS a Better Deal?Counter-Intuitive Comparisons 
4How Does Harley-Davidson Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?Peer Comparison 
5Better Bet Than HOG Stock: Pay Less Than Harley-Davidson To Get More From UNH, HCA   
6Better Bet Than HOG Stock: Pay Less Than Harley-Davidson To Get More From CCL, LULU   
7Why Harley-Davidson Stock Moved: HOG Stock Has Lost 31% Since 2022 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S)  
8HOG Dip Buy Analysis  
9Harley-Davidson Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -14.1% in 2024 and -3.4% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average)  
10Harley-Davidson (HOG) Operating Cash Flow ComparisonFinancials 
11ARTICLES  
12How Will Harley-Davidson Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? July 25th, 2025
13How Will Harley-Davidson Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? April 17th, 2025
14Can Harley Stock Bounce Back Despite Tough Earnings? October 31st, 2024
15Can Harley Stock Bounce Back To $50 Following Rate Cuts September 19th, 2024
16Can Harley Stock Recover To $50 On Strong Touring Motorcycle Sales? July 3rd, 2024
Title
0DASHBOARDS
1How Will Harley-Davidson Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
2How Will Harley-Davidson Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
3Can Harley Stock Bounce Back Despite Tough Earnings?
4Can Harley Stock Bounce Back To $50 Following Rate Cuts
5Can Harley Stock Recover To $50 On Strong Touring Motorcycle Sales?
6ARTICLES
7Harley-Davidson Earnings Notes
8With Harley-Davidson Stock Down 10% In A Month, How Confident Are You?
9HOG's 13% Single Week Rise Brings Valuations Into Focus - Is TMUS a Better Deal?
10How Does Harley-Davidson Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?
11Better Bet Than HOG Stock: Pay Less Than Harley-Davidson To Get More From UNH, HCA 
12Better Bet Than HOG Stock: Pay Less Than Harley-Davidson To Get More From CCL, LULU 
13Why Harley-Davidson Stock Moved: HOG Stock Has Lost 31% Since 2022 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Unfavorable Change In Price To Sales Multiple (P/S)
14HOG Dip Buy Analysis
15Harley-Davidson Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -14.1% in 2024 and -3.4% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average)
16Harley-Davidson (HOG) Operating Cash Flow Comparison

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to HOG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		-20.0%-20.0%-20.0%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		-1.5%-1.5%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		-6.8%-6.8%-7.9%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		0.5%0.5%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.		-8.1%-8.1%-11.7%
HOG_6302020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy06302020HOGHarley-DavidsonDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		53.6%94.4%-4.1%
HOG_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018HOGHarley-DavidsonDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		6.8%13.6%-9.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		-20.0%-20.0%-20.0%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		-1.5%-1.5%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		-6.8%-6.8%-7.9%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		0.5%0.5%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.		-8.1%-8.1%-11.7%
HOG_6302020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy06302020HOGHarley-DavidsonDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		53.6%94.4%-4.1%
HOG_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018HOGHarley-DavidsonDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		6.8%13.6%-9.0%

Recent Active Movers

1 Week Top Gainers

#TickerCompany1W RtnYTD Rtn
1PRAXPraxis Precision Medicines234.5%127.5%
2NVTSNavitas Semiconductor71.5%379.0%
3BETRBetter Home & Finance60.2%812.4%
4KODKodiak Sciences52.6%77.9%
5CELCCelcuity48.9%439.2%
6SSIISS Innovations International47.6%26.5%
7CCOClear Channel Outdoor44.6%37.2%
8GRALGRAIL30.4%414.6%
9LBRTLiberty Energy28.9%-18.7%
10SANASana Biotechnology28.0%241.1%

1 Week Top Losers

#TickerCompany1W RtnYTD Rtn
1SOCSable Offshore-31.3%-44.1%
2ONDSOndas-28.1%203.5%
3OLMAOlema Pharmaceuticals-27.7%33.3%
4IONQIonQ-27.0%43.5%
5AIVApartment Investment & Management-26.6%-7.0%
6RCATRed Cat-24.8%-10.0%
7MNPRMonopar Therapeutics-24.4%250.7%
8LARLithium Argentina-23.1% 
9ASPIASP Isotopes-23.0%126.5%
10ALABAstera Labs-21.7%18.0%

1 Month Top Gainers

#TickerCompany1M RtnYTD Rtn
1WOLFWolfspeed1245.3%350.5%
2QUREuniQure360.9%261.9%
3PRAXPraxis Precision Medicines314.7%127.5%
4NVTSNavitas Semiconductor143.9%379.0%
5CLPTClearPoint Neuro143.9%77.6%
6BETRBetter Home & Finance138.8%812.4%
7GRALGRAIL120.5%414.6%
8LACLithium Americas114.8%135.0%
9SESSES AI107.0%49.3%
10UAMYUnited States Antimony106.9%658.8%

1 Month Top Losers

#TickerCompany1M RtnYTD Rtn
1SOCSable Offshore-45.7%-44.1%
2FLYFirefly Aerospace-40.0% 
3ALABAstera Labs-36.3%18.0%
4UPWheels Up Experience-36.0%-3.0%
5PGYPagaya Technologies-31.7%211.2%
6KVYOKlaviyo-30.9%-41.0%
7USNAUsana Health Sciences-30.5%-42.4%
8VGVenture Global-29.9% 
9DOMODomo-28.4%82.6%
10MGNIMagnite-28.0%17.3%

Recent Active Movers

1 Week Top Gainers

#TickerCompany1W RtnYTD Rtn
1PRAXPraxis Precision Medicines234.5%127.5%
2NVTSNavitas Semiconductor71.5%379.0%
3BETRBetter Home & Finance60.2%812.4%
4KODKodiak Sciences52.6%77.9%
5CELCCelcuity48.9%439.2%
6SSIISS Innovations International47.6%26.5%
7CCOClear Channel Outdoor44.6%37.2%
8GRALGRAIL30.4%414.6%
9LBRTLiberty Energy28.9%-18.7%
10SANASana Biotechnology28.0%241.1%

1 Week Top Losers

#TickerCompany1W RtnYTD Rtn
1SOCSable Offshore-31.3%-44.1%
2ONDSOndas-28.1%203.5%
3OLMAOlema Pharmaceuticals-27.7%33.3%
4IONQIonQ-27.0%43.5%
5AIVApartment Investment & Management-26.6%-7.0%
6RCATRed Cat-24.8%-10.0%
7MNPRMonopar Therapeutics-24.4%250.7%
8LARLithium Argentina-23.1% 
9ASPIASP Isotopes-23.0%126.5%
10ALABAstera Labs-21.7%18.0%

More From Trefis

Research & Analysis

Invest in Strategies

Wealth Management

Peer Comparisons for Harley-Davidson

Financials

HOGTSLATMGMVWAGYFMedian
NameHarley-D.Tesla Toyota M.General .Volkswag.Ford Mot. 
Mkt Price26.68447.43200.1158.0010.7611.9942.34
Mkt Cap3.21,442.1260.855.953.947.654.9
Rev LTM4,47592,72048,452,150187,600324,221182,874185,237
Op Inc LTM1855,7784,653,26510,65318,7234,3138,216
FCF LTM8215,586-113,429-1,842-11,1029,309-510
FCF 3Y Avg6894,488-793,290-3,192-8,8085,908-1,251
CFO LTM99615,7654,889,75423,97015,97917,71716,848
CFO 3Y Avg87713,7513,990,25921,61417,12313,98615,554

Growth & Margins

HOGTSLATMGMVWAGYFMedian
NameHarley-D.Tesla Toyota M.General .Volkswag.Ford Mot. 
Rev Chg LTM-24.8%-2.7%4.5%5.3%-0.2%3.0%1.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-4.4%12.9%15.2%12.9%9.0%11.1%12.0%
Rev Chg Q-19.3%-11.8%3.5%-1.8%-3.0%-5.0%-4.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-6.5%-3.1%0.9%-0.4%-0.8%-1.1%-1.0%
Op Mgn LTM4.1%6.2%9.6%5.7%5.8%2.4%5.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.4%9.1%10.0%6.3%6.3%3.1%7.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.4%-1.2%-0.4%-0.9%-0.4%-0.5%-0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM22.3%17.0%10.1%12.8%4.9%9.7%11.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg16.5%14.6%8.9%12.1%5.4%7.9%10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM18.4%6.0%-0.2%-1.0%-3.4%5.1%2.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.1%4.8%-1.8%-1.8%-2.8%3.3%0.8%

Valuation

HOGTSLATMGMVWAGYFMedian
NameHarley-D.Tesla Toyota M.General .Volkswag.Ford Mot. 
Mkt Cap3.21,442.1260.855.953.947.654.9
P/S0.715.60.00.30.20.30.3
P/EBIT10.7179.10.07.13.16.46.8
P/E13.4236.20.111.76.09.510.6
P/CFO3.391.50.12.33.42.73.0
Total Yield10.2%0.4%2,090.3%9.7%16.6%14.3%12.3%
Dividend Yield2.7%0.0%451.9%1.1%0.0%3.8%1.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg18.4%0.5%-304.3%-6.2%-14.5%12.4%-2.8%
D/E2.10.0147.42.43.53.32.9
Net D/E1.6-0.086.21.92.32.62.1

Returns

HOGTSLATMGMVWAGYFMedian
NameHarley-D.Tesla Toyota M.General .Volkswag.Ford Mot. 
1M Rtn-5.8%5.0%0.6%-1.7%-2.5%3.2%-0.5%
3M Rtn13.8%36.2%17.7%9.3%0.4%7.4%11.5%
6M Rtn22.7%96.7%14.7%31.4%12.0%30.2%26.4%
12M Rtn-24.5%102.7%16.7%19.2%10.6%16.2%16.4%
3Y Rtn-20.9%108.7%49.6%71.0%-13.3%24.6%37.1%
1M Excs Rtn-6.9%4.0%-0.5%-2.7%-3.6%2.1%-1.6%
3M Excs Rtn3.0%28.0%11.0%12.2%-6.9%1.8%7.0%
6M Excs Rtn-7.9%66.1%-15.9%0.8%-18.6%-0.4%-4.1%
12M Excs Rtn-40.3%86.9%1.4%4.3%-3.9%1.7%1.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-104.7%18.3%-36.8%-0.8%-92.2%-54.4%-45.6%

Comparison Analyses

Title
0How Does Harley-Davidson Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?
1HOG Looks Stronger Than TSLA With 11% Return Potential
2F Looks Stronger Than HOG With 18% Return Potential
3Harley-Davidson vs. General Motors: With Return Forecast Of 18%, General Motors Is A Better Bet
4Harley-Davidson vs. Vertex Pharmaceuticals: With Return Forecast Of 121%, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Is A Better Bet
5Harley-Davidson vs. Zoetis: With Return Forecast Of 23%, Zoetis Is A Better Bet
6Harley-Davidson vs. Edwards Lifesciences: With Return Forecast Of 19%, Edwards Lifesciences Is A Better Bet
7Harley-Davidson vs. Intuitive Surgical: With Return Forecast Of 40%, Intuitive Surgical Is A Better Bet
8Harley-Davidson vs. ServiceNow: With Return Forecast Of 66%, ServiceNow Is A Better Bet
9Harley-Davidson vs. Pegasystems: With Return Forecast Of 32%, Pegasystems Is A Better Bet

Financials

$ Mil | FY: 12/312025Q22025Q12024Q42024Q32024Q22024Q12023Q42023Q32023Q22023Q12022Q42022Q3
Period End6/30/20253/31/202512/31/20249/30/20246/30/20243/31/202412/31/20239/30/20236/30/20233/31/202312/31/20229/25/2022
Filing Date8/6/20255/6/20252/26/202511/6/20248/7/20245/6/20242/23/202411/8/20238/9/20235/10/20232/24/202311/3/2022
Key Financials Quarterly            
Total Revenue1,3071,3296881,1511,6191,7301,0531,5491,4461,7891,1421,649
Ebitda178227-1221803113405828627843467387
Operating Income112160-193106241263-212092213704339
Net Income108133-1171192182352619917830442261
EPS0.891.07-0.930.921.641.730.191.401.242.080.291.79
Key Financials TTM            
Total Revenue TTM4,4754,7865,1875,5525,9515,7775,8365,9266,0256,0495,7555,629
Ebitda TTM4645967098889949611,0561,0651,1661,2111,1141,103
Operating Income TTM185314417589692673779804934990909897
Net Income TTM243354455598678637707723785823741721
Growth Rates Quarterly            
Total Revenue Growth-19.3%-23.1%-34.7%-25.7%12.0%-3.3%-7.8%-6.0%-1.6%19.6%12.4%20.7%
EBITDA Growth-42.6%-33.0%-310.3%-37.2%11.9%-21.8%-14.2%-26.1%-13.9%28.6%20.2%57.2%
Operating Income Growth-53.4%-39.0%-814.3%-49.4%8.9%-28.8%-615.6%-38.2%-20.2%27.8%148.4%65.4%
Net Income Growth-50.7%-43.3%-552.9%-40.1%22.6%-22.7%-38.4%-23.9%-17.5%36.7%94.1%60.3%
Margins Quarterly            
EBITDA Margin13.6%17.1%-17.7%15.6%19.2%19.6%5.5%18.5%19.2%24.3%5.9%23.5%
Operating Income Margin8.6%12.1%-28.1%9.2%14.9%15.2%-2.0%13.5%15.3%20.7%0.4%20.5%
Net Income Margin8.2%10.0%-17.0%10.3%13.5%13.6%2.5%12.8%12.3%17.0%3.7%15.8%
Cash & Debt            
Total Cash1,5881,9311,5902,2441,8491,4651,5341,8781,5221,5611,4331,730
Total Debt6,9117,3497,0267,8507,5147,2587,1967,3627,1217,2126,9557,195
Net Debt / (Cash)5,3235,4185,4375,6065,6655,7935,6625,4835,5995,6515,5225,465
Cash Flows Quarterly            
FCF from Operations3681421333534741044829636447-26331
Cash Flows TTM            
FCF from Operations TTM9961,1011,064979922812755681715456548625
Returns to Shareholders Quarterly            
Dividends222322222324242524242323
Share Repurchases093100150102108125707397013
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Quarterly            
ROIC6.9%8.7%-9.9%6.6%13.9%14.5%-1.5%12.6%11.8%20.1%0.3%19.0%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) TTM            
ROIC TTM3.0%4.9%6.6%8.9%10.2%9.5%11.0%11.8%13.1%13.9%13.1%12.9%

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC)4,8454,8884,504  
Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS)954821796  
LiveWire384736  
Financial Services   790789
Motorcycles and Related Products   3,2644,573
Total5,8365,7555,3364,0545,362


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC)661677477  
Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS)235318415  
LiveWire-117-85-68  
Financial Services   196266
Motorcycles and Related Products   -186290
Total77990982310556


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS)8,2307,8877,743  
Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC)3,6443,2543,246  
LiveWire26635162  
Financial Services   9,5187,980
Motorcycles and Related Products   2,4932,548
Total12,14111,49211,05112,01110,528


Price Behavior

HOG Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2025

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.331.291.621.321.151.11
Up Beta6.692.702.591.381.381.27
Down Beta-2.00-0.231.821.210.930.82
Up Capture15%153%153%131%70%91%
Bmk +ve Days13233574144420
Stock +ve Days11223465120357
Down Capture171%64%85%135%118%106%
Bmk -ve Days8192952107330
Stock -ve Days10203061131390

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,510,347
Short Interest: % Change Since 91520258.4%
Average Daily Volume1,908,049
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.03
Basic Shares Quantity121,521,000
Short % of Basic Shares9.5%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/30/202513.4%5.6%27.1%
5/1/20252.8%2.5%8.0%
2/5/2025-1.6%-2.2%-4.4%
10/24/2024-7.2%-5.6%-3.8%
7/25/20247.4%10.7%7.1%
4/25/2024-15.7%-12.8%-10.9%
2/8/20241.1%6.7%11.9%
10/26/2023-6.5%-5.3%5.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151614
# Negative768
Median Positive8.0%8.6%10.7%
Median Negative-6.5%-5.4%-7.9%
Max Positive22.1%18.9%42.9%
Max Negative-15.7%-12.8%-11.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/25/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/26/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/27/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211104202110-Q 9/26/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
0Masood Rafeh 8072025Buy24.062,06849,756113,202Form
1Mansfield Luke ChristopherChief Commercial Officer2182025Sell25.963,40088,264611,490Form
2Sylvester Maryrose 11012024Sell32.254,278137,966570,398Form

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