Honda Motor (HMC)
Market Price (10/26/2025): $31.51 | Market Cap: $44.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Honda Motor (HMC)
Market Price (10/26/2025): $31.51Market Cap: $44.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 2141%, Dividend Yield is 696%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 2136% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -9450% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 459 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 2141%, Dividend Yield is 696%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 2136% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -9450% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 459 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.2% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
HMC Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HMC Return | 3% | 4% | -17% | 37% | -8% | 10% | 25% |
| Peers Return | 157% | 31% | -34% | 26% | 19% | 13% | 277% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HMC Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 50% | 83% | 50% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 53% | 25% | 40% | 38% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HMC Max Drawdown | -30% | -6% | -21% | 0% | -23% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -7% | -38% | -12% | -17% | -17% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TSLA, TM, GM, VWAGY, AIIO. See HMC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HMC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 341 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 238 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1670 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 781 days | 1480 days |
Compare to TSLA, TM, GM, VWAGY, AIIO
In The Past
Honda Motor's stock fell -35.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/6/2021. A -35.1% loss requires a 54.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HMC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -17.6% | -17.6% | -22.1% |
| 09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.2% | -14.2% | -14.2% |
| 09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -9.0% |
| 09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -6.1% |
| 09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 13.2% | 13.2% | -11.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -17.6% | -17.6% | -22.1% |
| 09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.2% | -14.2% | -14.2% |
| 09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -9.0% |
| 09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -6.1% |
| 09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 13.2% | 13.2% | -11.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Honda Motor
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 50.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 65.8 |
| Rev LTM | 324,221 |
| Op Inc LTM | 18,723 |
| FCF LTM | -11,102 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -2,949 |
| CFO LTM | 24,212 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 22,252 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 65.8 |
| P/S | 0.2 |
| P/EBIT | 3.1 |
| P/E | 5.9 |
| P/CFO | 2.7 |
| Total Yield | 16.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.8% |
| D/E | 2.0 |
| Net D/E | 1.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 48.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -29.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automobile Business | 13,791,515 | 10,781,717 | 9,360,593 | 8,779,349 | 10,194,638 |
| Financial Services Business | 3,251,784 | 2,956,144 | 2,823,323 | 2,506,788 | 2,600,937 |
| Motorcycle Business | 3,220,168 | 2,908,983 | 2,185,253 | 1,787,283 | 2,059,335 |
| Power Products and Other Businesses | 422,329 | 476,432 | 421,758 | 341,844 | 350,654 |
| Reconciling Items | -256,994 | -215,551 | -238,231 | -244,745 | -274,555 |
| Total | 20,428,802 | 16,907,725 | 14,552,696 | 13,170,519 | 14,931,009 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automobile Business | 560,649 | -16,629 | 236,207 | 90,255 | 153,323 |
| Motorcycle Business | 556,232 | 488,709 | 311,492 | 224,608 | 285,668 |
| Financial Services Business | 273,978 | 285,857 | 333,032 | 356,980 | 219,704 |
| Reconciling Items | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Power Products and Other Businesses | -8,882 | 22,832 | -9,499 | -11,635 | -25,058 |
| Total | 1,381,977 | 780,769 | 871,232 | 660,208 | 633,637 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Services Business | 14,118,371 | 11,197,017 | 11,318,756 | 10,832,645 | 10,282,136 |
| Automobile Business | 11,690,446 | 10,082,519 | 9,563,553 | 8,643,109 | 7,821,499 |
| Motorcycle Business | 2,047,270 | 1,580,521 | 1,448,926 | 1,555,057 | 1,483,888 |
| Reconciling Items | 1,332,762 | 1,329,844 | 1,166,794 | 516,050 | 519,470 |
| Power Products and Other Businesses | 585,301 | 480,166 | 475,124 | 374,169 | 354,472 |
| Total | 29,774,150 | 24,670,067 | 23,973,153 | 21,921,030 | 20,461,465 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 6182025 | 20-F 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 6-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 6202024 | 20-F 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 6-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11172023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8242023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 6232023 | 20-F 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 6-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11182022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8262022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 6222022 | 20-F 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 6-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11182021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
