Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
Market Price (10/26/2025): $268.0 | Market Cap: $62.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
Market Price (10/26/2025): $268.0Market Cap: $62.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.9%, Dist 3Y High is -3.9% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.3x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 38x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 2.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 2.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.9%, Dist 3Y High is -3.9% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.3x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 38x |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
HLT Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HLT Return | 0% | 40% | -19% | 45% | 36% | 9% | 145% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 34% | -17% | 21% | 18% | -16% | 32% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HLT Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 57% | 37% | 55% | 57% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HLT Max Drawdown | -49% | -11% | -30% | -1% | -2% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -56% | -8% | -30% | -5% | -9% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MAR, H, WH, MTN, CHH. See HLT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HLT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 496 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 120 days |
Compare to MAR, H, WH, MTN, CHH
In The Past
Hilton Worldwide's stock fell -32.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/19/2022. A -32.7% loss requires a 48.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Hilton Worldwide Earnings Notes | |||
| How Low Can Hilton Worldwide Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Hilton Worldwide Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| Hilton Worldwide vs Alphabet: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Hilton Worldwide vs Booking: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| How Does Hilton Worldwide Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than HLT Stock: Pay Less Than Hilton Worldwide To Get More From BKNG, RCL | |||
| Better Bet Than HLT Stock: Pay Less Than Hilton Worldwide To Get More From BKNG, RCL | |||
| Better Bet Than HLT Stock: Pay Less Than Hilton Worldwide To Get More From BKNG, RCL | |||
| HLT Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Now is not the time to buy Hilton Worldwide stock | August 20th, 2025 | ||
| HGV Stock Up 18% after 8-Day Win Streak | July 15th, 2025 | ||
| How Hilton Hotels Performed In 2017 And The Outlook For 2018 | February 26th, 2018 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to HLT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -17.6% | -17.6% | -22.1% |
| 09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.2% | -14.2% | -14.2% |
| 09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -9.0% |
| 09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -6.1% |
| 09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 13.2% | 13.2% | -11.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -17.6% | -17.6% | -22.1% |
| 09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.2% | -14.2% | -14.2% |
| 09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -9.0% |
| 09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -6.1% |
| 09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 13.2% | 13.2% | -11.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Hilton Worldwide
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 150.76 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.0 |
| Rev LTM | 4,861 |
| Op Inc LTM | 566 |
| FCF LTM | 307 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 380 |
| CFO LTM | 452 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 599 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.0 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/EBIT | 13.0 |
| P/E | 25.0 |
| P/CFO | 20.7 |
| Total Yield | 5.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 37.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -20.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -40.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other revenues from managed and franchised properties | 5,827 | 5,037 | |||
| Management and franchise | 3,055 | 2,619 | 1,809 | 1,138 | 2,315 |
| Ownership | 1,244 | 1,076 | 598 | 421 | 1,422 |
| Other revenues | 178 | 102 | 79 | 73 | 101 |
| Intersegment fees elimination | -26 | -23 | -10 | -3 | -43 |
| Amortization of contract acquisition costs | -43 | -38 | -32 | -29 | -29 |
| Direct reimbursements from managed and franchised properties | 1,503 | 1,375 | 3,110 | ||
| Indirect reimbursements from managed and franchised properties | 1,841 | 1,332 | 2,576 | ||
| Total | 10,235 | 8,773 | 5,788 | 4,307 | 9,452 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | 3.4% | ||
| 7/23/2025 | -2.6% | -0.3% | -1.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 2.2% | 7.8% | 13.2% |
| 2/6/2025 | 4.9% | 6.1% | -4.1% |
| 10/23/2024 | -1.9% | 0.4% | 5.1% |
| 8/7/2024 | -1.7% | -0.9% | 4.4% |
| 4/24/2024 | 3.9% | 0.1% | 3.8% |
| 2/7/2024 | 0.7% | -2.3% | 5.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 3.0% | 9.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -3.1% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 4.9% | 15.0% | 23.2% |
| Max Negative | -4.4% | -14.2% | -27.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10222025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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