Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
Market Price (4/12/2026): $323.38 | Market Cap: $75.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
Market Price (4/12/2026): $323.38Market Cap: $75.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 8.4 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.5%, Dist 3Y High is -0.5% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.3x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 35x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.0% Key risksHLT key risks include [1] its substantial level of indebtedness, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 8.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.5%, Dist 3Y High is -0.5% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.3x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 35x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.0% |
| Key risksHLT key risks include [1] its substantial level of indebtedness, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong Q4 2025 Earnings Beat and Optimistic 2026 Guidance.
Hilton Worldwide reported a fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted diluted EPS of $2.08, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.02 by $0.06. This beat contributed to investor confidence. Additionally, the company provided a positive outlook for full-year 2026, projecting system-wide comparable RevPAR to increase between 1.0% and 2.0% and Adjusted EBITDA to be between $4,000 million and $4,040 million.
2. Robust Development Pipeline and Net Unit Growth.
Hilton demonstrated significant expansion, achieving 6.7% net unit growth in 2025 by adding 97,000 rooms to its system. The company's development pipeline reached a record 520,500 rooms as of December 31, 2025, marking a 4% increase from the prior year. This strong pipeline indicates future revenue generation and market share expansion.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.6% change in HLT stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 287.11 | 323.43 | 12.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,735 | 12,039 | 2.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.2% | 12.1% | -14.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 40.4 | 51.7 | 28.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 234 | 233 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.6% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLT | 12.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 52.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | -5.5% | 65.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.8% change in HLT stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 259.17 | 323.43 | 24.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,482 | 12,039 | 4.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.8% | 12.1% | -12.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 38.7 | 51.7 | 33.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 237 | 233 | 1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.8% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLT | 24.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 34.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -5.6% | 48.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 42.4% change in HLT stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 42.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 227.05 | 323.43 | 42.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,174 | 12,039 | 7.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.7% | 12.1% | -11.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.2 | 51.7 | 42.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 245 | 233 | 5.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 42.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLT | 42.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 65.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 15.0% | 69.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 131.6% change in HLT stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 72.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 139.68 | 323.43 | 131.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,773 | 12,039 | 37.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.3% | 12.1% | -15.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.9 | 51.7 | 72.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 269 | 233 | 15.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 131.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| HLT | 131.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 61.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 54.4% | 60.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| HLT Return | 40% | -19% | 45% | 36% | 16% | 12% | 194% |
| Peers Return | 35% | -13% | 28% | 19% | -7% | 12% | 86% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| HLT Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 40% | 57% | 58% | 52% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| HLT Max Drawdown | -11% | -30% | -1% | -2% | -19% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -24% | -4% | -9% | -31% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MAR, H, WH, CHH, HST. See HLT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/10/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | HLT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 496 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 280 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 120 days |
Compare to MAR, H, WH, CHH, HST
In The Past
Hilton Worldwide's stock fell -32.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/19/2022. A -32.7% loss requires a 48.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Hilton Worldwide (HLT)
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- Marriott International for hotels.
- McDonald's, but for hotel brands and properties.
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- Hotel Management Services: Hilton provides comprehensive management services for hotels and resorts owned by third parties, overseeing daily operations, marketing, and guest services.
- Hotel Franchising Services: Hilton licenses its diverse portfolio of hotel brands to independent owners and operators, providing them with brand recognition, reservation systems, and operational support.
- Lodging and Hospitality Services: Hilton directly operates and offers accommodation, dining, and various hospitality amenities to guests at its owned and leased hotels and resorts worldwide.
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Hilton Worldwide (HLT) primarily serves individuals and groups who utilize its hotel and resort properties.
The major categories of customers Hilton serves are:
- Leisure Travelers: Individuals and families who stay at Hilton properties for vacations, personal travel, recreation, or weekend getaways.
- Business Travelers: Individuals who stay at Hilton properties for work-related purposes, including corporate meetings, conferences, training sessions, or individual business trips.
- Group Travelers & Event Planners: Organizations, companies, or individuals booking blocks of rooms or event spaces for conferences, conventions, social gatherings, weddings, and other organized events.
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Christopher J. Nassetta, President & Chief Executive Officer
Christopher J. Nassetta was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Hilton in December 2007. Before joining Hilton, he served as President and CEO of Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. from 2000. He co-founded Bailey Capital Corporation in 1991, a private real estate investment and advisory firm where he oversaw operations. Prior to that, he spent seven years at The Oliver Carr Company, rising to Chief Development Officer. Nassetta played a key role in transforming Hilton after its 2007 acquisition by Blackstone, converting what was initially a challenging private equity investment into a highly profitable one. He is recognized in the finance and real estate business as a restructuring expert who can fix struggling companies.
Kevin Jacobs, Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development
Kevin Jacobs is the Chief Financial Officer for Hilton, leading the company's finance, real estate, and corporate strategy functions globally. He joined Hilton in 2008 as Senior Vice President, Corporate Strategy, was elected Treasurer in 2009, appointed Executive Vice President & Chief of Staff in 2012, and assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer in 2013. From 2020 to 2025, Jacobs also held the position of President, Global Development. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc., an equity REIT.
Laura Fuentes, Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer
Laura Fuentes joined Hilton in 2013 and was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer in 2020. In this role, she is responsible for human resources and leads Hilton Supply Management. Before her time at Hilton, Fuentes spent six years at Capital One Financial in various corporate strategy and human resources positions. Prior to Capital One, she worked at McKinsey & Company in their Madrid, New York, and Washington D.C. offices, advising clients in the financial services and non-profit sectors.
Danny Hughes, Executive Vice President and President, Americas
Danny Hughes is the Executive Vice President and President of the Americas for Hilton, where he is responsible for the company's operations across North, Central, and South America, encompassing over 6,600 hotels. With 35 years of experience in the hospitality industry, he previously served as SVP and Commercial Director in the Americas and SVP, Caribbean and Latin America at Hilton. His career in hospitality began as a chef in his parents' pub in the UK.
Chris Silcock, President, Global Brands and Commercial Services
Chris Silcock serves as President, Global Brands and Commercial Services for Hilton. He leads efforts to drive market-leading performance and innovation across Hilton's global portfolio. His responsibilities include global brand strategy and management, performance support, owner relations, technology, sales, revenue management, distribution, enterprise data and analytics, customer engagement, marketing, and loyalty.
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Here are the key risks to Hilton Worldwide (HLT):
-
Economic Sensitivity and Macroeconomic Factors
Hilton Worldwide's business is highly susceptible to the broader economic environment, as both leisure and corporate travel tend to decline during periods of economic downturn, recession, or reduced business activity, leading to lower occupancy rates and Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR). Rising interest rates can also increase borrowing costs for Hilton and its third-party hotel owners, potentially hampering expansion efforts and profitability. Furthermore, inflationary pressures, particularly in labor, utilities, and food costs, can erode profit margins if the company cannot offset these increases with higher room rates. Global geopolitical events, such as wars or political instability, can also negatively impact travel patterns and consumer confidence. -
Cybersecurity Threats and Data Security
The hospitality industry, including Hilton, is a prime target for cyberattacks due to the extensive amount of sensitive customer data, including personally identifiable information and payment details, that it processes and stores. A significant cybersecurity breach could result in substantial legal liabilities, regulatory penalties, severe damage to the company's brand reputation, and operational disruptions. The necessity to continually update information technology systems and keep pace with technological advancements, including artificial intelligence, also presents ongoing risks to operations and competitive positioning. -
Dependence on Third-Party Hotel Owners and Franchisees
Hilton's "asset-light" business model relies heavily on management and franchise contracts with third-party hotel owners. This model introduces several risks, including the necessity of maintaining strong relationships with these owners and ensuring the renewal of contracts. Owners may also terminate contracts if specified financial or performance criteria are not met. Additionally, the growth of Hilton's management and franchise business is influenced by external market factors affecting real estate development, such as site availability and financing costs, and negative pricing trends in the industry for management and franchise fees could adversely affect its ability to negotiate favorable terms.
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The continued growth and diversification of short-term rental platforms, most notably Airbnb, poses an emerging threat. These platforms offer alternative lodging options that directly compete with Hilton's various hotel brands for leisure, family, and increasingly, business travelers. They provide different value propositions, such as unique local experiences, more space, or potentially lower costs for extended stays, thereby attracting customers who might otherwise opt for a traditional hotel stay.
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Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) operates within the global hospitality industry, with its primary products and services encompassing hotel ownership, leasing, management, development, and franchising.
The addressable markets for Hilton Worldwide's main products and services are as follows:
- Global Hotels Market (Hotel Ownership and Operations): The global hotels market size was valued at USD 2,080.57 billion in 2025. This market is projected to grow from USD 2,197.80 billion in 2026 to USD 3,931.42 billion by 2034, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.54% during the forecast period.
- Global Hotel Franchising Market: The global hotel franchise market size was valued at USD 46.31 billion in 2024. It is projected to reach USD 83.83 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 7.7% from 2025-2032.
- Global Hotel Management Market: The global hotel management market size was USD 3,625.2 million (USD 3.625 billion) in 2024. This market, valued at USD 3.5 billion in 2021, is projected to reach over USD 7.25 billion by 2033, expanding at a CAGR of 6.275%.
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```htmlHilton Worldwide (HLT) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Aggressive Net Unit Growth and Global Expansion: Hilton is focused on expanding its global footprint, targeting a net unit growth of 6% to 7% for both 2025 and 2026. This expansion is supported by a record-breaking development pipeline, with approximately 60% of new rooms located outside the United States, particularly in high-growth markets such as Asia Pacific and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). The company also leverages conversions, which accounted for roughly 40% of room openings in 2025, to accelerate growth and add fee-generating properties efficiently.
- Comparable System-Wide RevPAR Growth: Hilton projects continued growth in comparable system-wide Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR). For the full year 2024, growth was projected between 2% and 4% on a comparable currency basis, with 2025 estimates ranging from 0% to 2% and 2026 forecasts at 1% to 2%. This growth is expected to be fueled by strong international performance, robust group and leisure demand, and an increase in Average Daily Rate (ADR).
- Diversification of Brand Portfolio and Market Segments: The company is strategically expanding its brand portfolio to capture a broader market share and cater to evolving traveler needs. This includes a strong emphasis on growing the all-inclusive and extended-stay segments, with the introduction of brands like LivSmart Studios. Hilton is also expanding its luxury and lifestyle brands globally, including recent acquisitions like Graduate Hotels and partnerships such as NoMad and Small Luxury Hotels of the World (SLH), and launching new brands like the Apartment Collection and Outset Collection.
- Enhanced Hilton Honors Loyalty Program: Hilton continues to invest in and enhance its Hilton Honors loyalty program to drive repeat business and increase guest satisfaction. Approaching 226 million members, the program has seen updates like a faster path to elite status and a new premium tier, which are designed to improve member engagement and drive demand across its portfolio.
- Asset-Light Business Model Driving Fee Revenue: Hilton operates primarily on an asset-light model, where a significant portion of its revenue is derived from high-margin management and franchise fees. As the company aggressively expands its global presence and increases its net unit count, the recurring fee revenue from these new and existing properties is a direct driver of top-line growth. This model provides a strong buffer and consistent profitability, even amidst varying market conditions.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Hilton Worldwide (HLT) (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- Hilton repurchased $2.3 billion of shares in 2023.
- In 2022, the company repurchased $1.608 billion of common stock.
- As of January 2026, Hilton's Board of Directors authorized an additional $3.5 billion for share repurchases, bringing the total amount authorized for future repurchases to approximately $4.6 billion.
Share Issuance
- Hilton Worldwide Holdings did not report any significant share issuances in the last 3-5 years. The number of shares outstanding has generally decreased, reflecting the impact of share repurchase programs.
Outbound Investments
- In March 2024, Hilton announced an agreement to acquire the Graduate Hotels® brand for $210 million, with existing properties entering into long-term Hilton franchise agreements.
- In April 2024, Hilton announced the acquisition of a majority controlling interest in Sydell Group, the owner of NoMad Hotels, with plans to expand the luxury lifestyle brand globally.
Capital Expenditures
- Total capital expenditures were $247 million in 2023.
- In 2022, capital expenditures amounted to $102 million.
- For 2024, capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $96 million.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes spending on technology, buildings and leasehold improvements to support sales and marketing, resort operations, and corporate activities, as well as renovations of existing assets to maintain competitiveness.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to HLT.
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| 03312026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
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| 03272026 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PATK | Patrick Industries | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 133.66 |
| Mkt Cap | 14.3 |
| Rev LTM | 6,608 |
| Op Inc LTM | 671 |
| FCF LTM | 594 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 639 |
| CFO LTM | 944 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,044 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 14.3 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 19.2 |
| P/E | 25.9 |
| P/CFO | 24.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 45.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 45.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 9.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 16.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 18.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -21.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other revenues from managed and franchised properties | 5,827 | 5,037 | |||
| Management and franchise | 3,055 | 2,619 | 1,809 | 1,138 | 2,315 |
| Ownership | 1,244 | 1,076 | 598 | 421 | 1,422 |
| Other revenues | 178 | 102 | 79 | 73 | 101 |
| Intersegment fees elimination | -26 | -23 | -10 | -3 | -43 |
| Amortization of contract acquisition costs | -43 | -38 | -32 | -29 | -29 |
| Direct reimbursements from managed and franchised properties | 1,503 | 1,375 | 3,110 | ||
| Indirect reimbursements from managed and franchised properties | 1,841 | 1,332 | 2,576 | ||
| Total | 10,235 | 8,773 | 5,788 | 4,307 | 9,452 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $323.43 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 75.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/12/2013 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -0.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $306.74 | $282.02 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 5.4% | 14.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.9% | 23.2% |
| Downside Capture | 0.10 | 0.27 |
| Upside Capture | 85.70 | 89.36 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 48.0% | 48.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.13 | 0.86 | 0.95 | 0.62 | 0.88 | 0.91 |
| Up Beta | 2.99 | 1.81 | 1.44 | 1.04 | 0.93 | 0.85 |
| Down Beta | 0.86 | 1.05 | 1.28 | 0.88 | 0.90 | 0.95 |
| Up Capture | 136% | 84% | 91% | 57% | 84% | 98% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 33 | 63 | 126 | 414 |
| Down Capture | 89% | 47% | 53% | 25% | 78% | 96% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 63 | 125 | 336 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLT | 61.3% | 24.9% | 1.87 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 28.9% | 22.5% | 1.05 | 65.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 31.2% | 17.3% | 1.47 | 61.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 60.1% | 27.8% | 1.69 | -10.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.8% | 16.6% | 1.58 | 2.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 21.3% | 15.2% | 1.07 | 55.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -4.3% | 43.7% | 0.02 | 21.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLT | 21.2% | 27.0% | 0.72 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.3% | 23.7% | 0.23 | 65.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 64.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.1% | 17.8% | 1.02 | 1.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.8% | 18.8% | 0.52 | 15.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 47.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.3% | 56.5% | 0.30 | 24.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with HLT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HLT | 22.3% | 28.8% | 0.75 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.2% | 22.0% | 0.51 | 63.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.66 | 62.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.2% | 15.9% | 0.74 | -2.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 22.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 49.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.6% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 13.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/11/2026 | 0.4% | -2.4% | -9.1% |
| 10/22/2025 | 3.4% | -1.9% | 0.4% |
| 7/23/2025 | -2.6% | -0.3% | -1.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 2.2% | 7.8% | 13.2% |
| 2/6/2025 | 4.9% | 6.1% | -4.1% |
| 10/23/2024 | -1.9% | 0.4% | 5.1% |
| 8/7/2024 | -1.7% | -0.9% | 4.4% |
| 4/24/2024 | 3.9% | 0.1% | 3.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 3.7% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -2.4% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 4.9% | 15.0% | 23.2% |
| Max Negative | -4.4% | -14.2% | -10.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/07/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR growth | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 50.0% | 0.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.0% for Q4 2025 |
| Q1 2026 Diluted EPS | 1.87 | 1.9 | 1.93 | -0.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.92 for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Net Income | 436.00 Mil | 443.00 Mil | 450.00 Mil | -1.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 451.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 875.00 Mil | 885.00 Mil | 895.00 Mil | -3.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 921.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR growth | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 200.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.5% for 2025 |
| 2026 Net Income | 1.98 Bil | 2.00 Bil | 2.01 Bil | 23.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.61 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 4.00 Bil | 4.02 Bil | 4.04 Bil | 8.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.70 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Return | 3.50 Bil | 6.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.30 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Net Unit Growth | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | -3.7% | -0.2% | Lower New | Guidance: 6.75% for 2025 |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/22/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 RevPAR Growth | 1.0% | -300.0% | Higher New | Actual: -0.5% for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 EPS | 1.87 | 1.92 | 1.96 | -0.3% | Lower New | Actual: 1.92 for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Net Income | 441.00 Mil | 451.50 Mil | 462.00 Mil | -1.8% | Lower New | Actual: 460.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 906.00 Mil | 921.00 Mil | 936.00 Mil | -2.5% | Lower New | Actual: 945.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| 2025 RevPAR Growth | 0.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | -50.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.0% for 2025 | |
| 2025 EPS | 6.71 | 6.75 | 6.8 | -2.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 6.91 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Net Income | 1.60 Bil | 1.61 Bil | 1.62 Bil | -2.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.66 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 3.69 Bil | 3.70 Bil | 3.71 Bil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 3.68 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 250.00 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 300.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 275.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Capital Return | 3.30 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.30 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Net Unit Growth | 6.5% | 6.75% | 7.0% | 3.8% | Raised | Guidance: 6.5% for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Silcock, Christopher W | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 8222025 | 269.40 | 11,905 | 3,207,207 | 21,404,099 | Form |
| 2 | Mabus, Raymond E | Direct | Buy | 7012025 | 197.39 | 53 | 10,462 | 2,852,108 | Form | |
| 3 | Nassetta, Christopher J | See Remarks | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 317.47 | 114,289 | 36,283,559 | 11,570,268 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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