Tearsheet

Guess (GES)


Market Price (12/13/2025): $16.76 | Market Cap: $864.6 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail

Guess (GES)


Market Price (12/13/2025): $16.76
Market Cap: $864.6 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Apparel Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 7.1%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.2%
 
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70%
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 16%, Dividend Yield is 7.1%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.2%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -70%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GES Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period from August 31, 2025, to December 13, 2025, is in the future. As an AI, I do not have access to real-time future stock market data or news events. Therefore, I cannot provide factual information or analysis for why Guess (GES) stock moved by 2.4% during that specific future timeframe. However, based on the search results, there is some information regarding Guess (GES) up to December 2025, primarily related to earnings reports and forecasts that were made *prior* to or *during* 2025 for future periods within 2025 or extending into 2026. This data, while existing, refers to projected or reported past earnings for fiscal quarters ending within or before the requested period, not real-time stock price movements and their causes within the requested future period. For example, Guess? Inc. reported its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results (ending November 1, 2025) on November 1, 2025, and Q3 2025 earnings on August 2, 2025. It also reported Q4 fiscal 2025 results (ending February 1, 2025) on April 3, 2025. These are historical reports about financial performance, not explanations for a specific 2.4% stock movement in the later part of 2025. Similarly, there are stock price forecasts and analyst ratings that extend into 2025 and 2026, but these are predictions and analyses, not actual events causing a 2.4% movement within the requested future period. Therefore, I cannot provide key points explaining a 2.4% stock movement for Guess (GES) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 13, 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GES Return3%7%-9%18%-30%30%8%
Peers Return9%31%-33%95%20%16%157%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GES Win Rate75%58%50%58%25%67% 
Peers Win Rate53%53%37%63%50%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GES Max Drawdown-82%-11%-37%-15%-32%-38% 
Peers Max Drawdown-57%-4%-52%-9%-11%-38% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PVH, LEVI, ANF, AEO, URBN. See GES Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGESS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-53.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven113.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven542 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-83.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven499.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven296 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-47.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven91.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven557 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven417.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to TPR, RL, AEO, UA, TJX


In The Past

Guess's stock fell -53.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2021. A -53.1% loss requires a 113.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Guess (GES)

Interactive Breakdown

Guess Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Guess (GES)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GES. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
14.5%14.5%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.6%-0.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.0%12.0%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.9%12.9%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
14.5%14.5%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.4%3.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.6%-0.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.0%12.0%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.9%12.9%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Guess

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GESPVHLEVIANFAEOURBNMedian
NameGuess PVH Levi Str.Abercrom.American.Urban Ou. 
Mkt Price16.7675.2721.50112.0925.4681.8450.36
Mkt Cap0.94.08.54.02.96.44.0
Rev LTM3,1448,8176,5895,1815,3416,0005,670
Op Inc LTM125656716719290572614
FCF LTM62442324385157403354
FCF 3Y Avg122508278468310281296
CFO LTM145584560621424633572
CFO 3Y Avg202707538659530491534

Growth & Margins

GESPVHLEVIANFAEOURBNMedian
NameGuess PVH Levi Str.Abercrom.American.Urban Ou. 
Rev Chg LTM6.4%0.5%11.2%7.6%-1.2%11.1%7.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.7%-0.5%1.9%12.4%2.3%8.2%4.0%
Rev Chg Q7.2%1.7%7.0%6.8%5.7%12.3%6.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.7%0.4%1.5%1.6%1.4%2.9%1.6%
Op Mgn LTM4.0%7.4%10.9%13.9%5.4%9.5%8.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.5%8.2%8.9%12.3%6.6%8.0%8.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%0.1%0.3%-0.7%-0.3%-0.0%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM4.6%6.6%8.5%12.0%7.9%10.5%8.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.0%7.9%8.7%14.2%10.2%8.9%8.8%
FCF/Rev LTM2.0%5.0%4.9%7.4%2.9%6.7%5.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.3%5.7%4.5%10.2%6.0%5.1%5.4%

Valuation

GESPVHLEVIANFAEOURBNMedian
NameGuess PVH Levi Str.Abercrom.American.Urban Ou. 
Mkt Cap0.94.08.54.02.96.44.0
P/S0.30.41.40.80.51.10.7
P/EBIT--13.6---13.6
P/E10.711.615.37.713.913.112.4
P/CFO5.96.816.56.56.810.16.8
Total Yield16.4%8.7%8.3%13.0%8.8%7.6%8.7%
Dividend Yield7.1%0.1%1.7%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--2.8%---2.8%
D/E--0.2---0.2
Net D/E--0.2---0.2

Returns

GESPVHLEVIANFAEOURBNMedian
NameGuess PVH Levi Str.Abercrom.American.Urban Ou. 
1M Rtn0.2%-5.9%-1.2%57.3%43.0%30.0%15.1%
3M Rtn1.8%-7.1%-1.2%28.1%40.0%20.9%11.3%
6M Rtn54.1%20.2%30.3%50.1%179.2%20.3%40.2%
12M Rtn20.6%-29.6%27.4%-18.5%52.7%58.1%24.0%
3Y Rtn6.5%3.0%39.6%385.0%79.2%200.2%59.4%
1M Excs Rtn0.5%-5.5%-0.9%57.7%43.3%30.4%15.5%
3M Excs Rtn-1.6%-13.6%-7.4%24.7%27.6%10.5%4.5%
6M Excs Rtn39.9%5.9%16.1%35.9%165.0%6.1%26.0%
12M Excs Rtn5.8%-44.1%13.9%-32.1%36.6%48.8%9.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-69.5%-69.7%-30.5%299.2%-0.1%108.3%-15.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Europe1,4761,3811,2989421,248
Americas Retail711758759511812
Asia277239237233346
Americas Wholesale200206201118186
Licensing113103977486
Total2,7772,6872,5921,8772,678


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Europe17216017567134
Licensing10692886874
Americas Retail5787125-1622
Americas Wholesale5446542036
Asia8-5-4-21-9
Net gains on lease modifications2203 
Gain on sale of assets0    
Asset impairment charges-7-10-3-80-10
Unallocated corporate overhead expense-128-125-130-101-107
Total263248305-60141


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,704,141
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-7.4%
Average Daily Volume479,598
Days-to-Cover Short Interest9.81
Basic Shares Quantity51,586,000
Short % of Basic Shares9.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/25/20250.1%-0.2% 
8/27/20250.3%0.1%0.5%
4/3/20259.8%-1.5%12.6%
11/26/2024-5.4%-1.6%-19.6%
8/28/20241.4%-4.4%0.9%
5/30/2024-0.5%0.1%-14.9%
3/20/202420.7%20.2%9.0%
11/21/2023-12.3%-7.3%1.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151415
# Negative787
Median Positive9.8%10.3%9.0%
Median Negative-5.2%-5.8%-17.3%
Max Positive124.5%108.9%104.8%
Max Negative-20.0%-16.9%-28.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251205202510-Q 11/1/2025
7312025905202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025611202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025411202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241206202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024906202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024607202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024401202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231201202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023831202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023602202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023324202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221202202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022902202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022602202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022324202210-K 1/29/2022