Tearsheet

Guess (GES)


Market Price (11/22/2025): $16.97 | Market Cap: $873.9 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail

Guess (GES)


Market Price (11/22/2025): $16.97
Market Cap: $873.9 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Apparel Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.7%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.5%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 162%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.7%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.5%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -48%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 162%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

GES Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the 32.3% stock movement for Guess (GES) from approximately July 31, 2025, to November 22, 2025: 1. Go-Private Transaction Announcement

On August 20, 2025, Guess? announced a definitive agreement to be taken private by its co-founders and CEO in partnership with Authentic Brands Group. This transaction offered shareholders $16.75 per share in cash, representing a substantial premium of approximately 73% to Guess?'s unaffected closing common stock price on March 14, 2025. The stock price immediately surged by 26.3% following this announcement.

2. Strong Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Performance

Guess? reported its second quarter fiscal year 2026 results on August 27, 2025, exceeding analyst expectations. The company announced adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.26, which was $0.10 higher than the consensus estimate of $0.16. Additionally, total net revenue for the quarter increased by 5.5% year-over-year to $772.94 million, also surpassing analyst forecasts.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GES Return3%7%-9%18%-30%29%8%
Peers Return7%22%-20%22%29%18%94%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%11%102%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GES Win Rate75%58%50%58%25%70% 
Peers Win Rate53%55%40%55%60%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GES Max Drawdown-82%-11%-37%-15%-32%-38% 
Peers Max Drawdown-53%-3%-43%-19%-11%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TPR, RL, AEO, UA, TJX. See GES Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/21/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGESS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-53.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven113.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven542 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-83.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven499.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven296 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-47.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven91.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven557 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven417.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to TPR, RL, AEO, UA, TJX


In The Past

Guess's stock fell -53.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2021. A -53.1% loss requires a 113.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Guess (GES)

Interactive Breakdown

Guess Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Guess (GES)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GES. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.6%-3.6%-7.8%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.5%4.5%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-4.7%-4.7%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.2%-5.2%-7.7%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.6%-3.6%-7.8%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.5%4.5%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-4.7%-4.7%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.2%-5.2%-7.7%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Guess

Financials

GESTPRRLAEOUATJXMedian
NameGuess Tapestry Ralph La.American.Under Ar.TJX Comp. 
Mkt Price16.97105.24339.8818.554.09151.4361.89
Mkt Cap0.921.820.83.21.8168.812.0
Rev LTM3,0927,2087,5715,2675,04957,9256,237
Op Inc LTM1401,3461,153301366,476727
FCF LTM131,080668152-454,041410
FCF 3Y Avg1261,103716293-684,358505
CFO LTM1011,2101,090410885,935750
CFO 3Y Avg2071,243981514796,145748

Growth & Margins

GESTPRRLAEOUATJXMedian
NameGuess Tapestry Ralph La.American.Under Ar.TJX Comp. 
Rev Chg LTM7.8%8.1%12.3%-2.7%-6.5%4.1%6.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.9%2.5%5.8%1.6%-4.2%5.3%3.7%
Rev Chg Q5.5%13.1%16.5%-0.6%-4.7%6.9%6.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.3%2.8%3.9%-0.1%-1.3%1.6%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM4.5%18.7%15.2%5.7%0.7%11.2%8.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.9%17.8%13.2%6.7%1.6%10.7%8.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%0.6%0.6%0.0%-2.5%0.2%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM3.3%16.8%14.4%7.8%1.7%10.2%9.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.3%18.2%14.1%9.9%1.5%11.2%10.6%
FCF/Rev LTM0.4%15.0%8.8%2.9%-0.9%7.0%4.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.5%16.1%10.4%5.7%-1.2%8.0%6.8%

Valuation

GESTPRRLAEOUATJXMedian
NameGuess Tapestry Ralph La.American.Under Ar.TJX Comp. 
Mkt Cap0.921.820.83.21.8168.812.0
P/S0.33.02.70.60.32.91.7
P/EBIT11.658.018.610.548.425.221.9
P/E27.980.524.316.1-20.033.926.1
P/CFO8.618.119.17.719.928.418.6
Total Yield11.0%2.6%5.1%7.7%-5.0%4.0%4.5%
Dividend Yield7.4%1.4%1.0%1.4%0.0%1.0%1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg12.3%10.5%6.1%11.9%-2.5%3.7%8.3%
D/E1.80.20.10.61.10.10.4
Net D/E1.60.20.10.60.90.10.4

Returns

GESTPRRLAEOUATJXMedian
NameGuess Tapestry Ralph La.American.Under Ar.TJX Comp. 
1M Rtn0.8%-8.7%2.3%17.9%-11.9%6.2%1.6%
3M Rtn2.1%6.0%19.3%45.6%-18.8%11.2%8.6%
6M Rtn59.8%38.0%24.8%77.0%-34.5%21.2%31.4%
12M Rtn11.6%90.0%66.3%12.1%-51.5%28.0%20.1%
3Y Rtn13.7%216.5%239.2%31.5%-50.9%97.0%64.3%
1M Excs Rtn2.7%-6.4%3.1%14.0%-10.6%8.7%2.9%
3M Excs Rtn-0.2%4.7%16.1%47.1%-21.1%9.5%7.1%
6M Excs Rtn46.0%24.2%11.0%63.2%-48.2%7.4%17.6%
12M Excs Rtn0.5%81.1%56.0%-0.8%-63.9%16.6%8.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-48.3%167.0%193.0%-0.8%-117.2%33.0%16.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Europe1,4761,3811,2989421,248
Americas Retail711758759511812
Asia277239237233346
Americas Wholesale200206201118186
Licensing113103977486
Total2,7772,6872,5921,8772,678


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Europe17216017567134
Licensing10692886874
Americas Retail5787125-1622
Americas Wholesale5446542036
Asia8-5-4-21-9
Net gains on lease modifications2203 
Gain on sale of assets00   
Asset impairment charges-7-10-3-80-10
Unallocated corporate overhead expense-128-125-130-101-107
Total263248305-60141


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,361,333
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025-4.9%
Average Daily Volume639,710
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.82
Basic Shares Quantity51,499,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/27/20250.3%0.1%0.5%
4/3/20259.8%-1.5%12.6%
11/26/2024-5.4%-1.6%-19.6%
8/28/20241.4%-4.4%0.9%
5/30/2024-0.5%0.1%-14.9%
3/20/202420.7%20.2%9.0%
11/21/2023-12.3%-7.3%1.0%
8/23/202326.0%35.0%19.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151416
# Negative786
Median Positive9.8%10.3%10.8%
Median Negative-5.2%-5.8%-17.3%
Max Positive124.5%108.9%104.8%
Max Negative-20.0%-16.9%-28.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025905202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025611202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025411202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241206202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024906202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024607202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024401202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231201202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023831202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023602202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023324202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221202202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022902202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022602202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022324202210-K 1/29/2022
103120211203202110-Q 10/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More