Fortinet (FTNT)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $80.76 | Market Cap: $61.0 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Fortinet (FTNT)
Market Price (11/14/2025): $80.76Market Cap: $61.0 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -16% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, CFO LTM is 2.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.0 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Network Security, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, CFO LTM is 2.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, Cloud Computing, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include Network Security, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -16% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
FTNT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Fortinet's (FTNT) stock movement of -18.9% from July 31, 2025, to November 14, 2025:
1. Disappointing Q2 2025 Guidance and Firewall Upgrade Cycle Concerns.
Fortinet's stock experienced a significant drop, around 22-25%, on August 7, 2025, following its Q2 2025 earnings call on August 6, 2025. While the company surpassed Q2 revenue and EPS estimates, the primary catalyst for the sell-off was weaker-than-expected Q3 2025 revenue guidance. Management revealed that the anticipated firewall refresh cycle, which was a key investment thesis for many, was approximately 40-50% complete by the end of Q2 2025 and primarily involved older products, indicating a less lucrative and shorter impact than investors had expected.
2. Multiple Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions.
Following the disappointing Q2 2025 guidance, several financial analysts downgraded Fortinet's stock or significantly reduced their price targets, contributing to the negative sentiment. For instance, on August 7, 2025, Truist Securities lowered its price target by 24% from $125 to $95, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. Evercore ISI cut its price target from $105 to $78 on August 8, 2025. Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to "Underweight" with a price target of $67 on September 2, 2025. More recently, on November 13, 2025, Daiwa Capital Markets downgraded Fortinet from "Outperform" to "Neutral" with an $86 price target.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FTNT Return | 39% | 142% | -32% | 20% | 61% | -14% | 279% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 27% | -32% | 19% | 91% | 9% | 163% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FTNT Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 56% | 27% | 56% | 56% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FTNT Max Drawdown | -29% | -7% | -36% | -3% | -5% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -2% | -39% | -24% | -42% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, AVGO, CSCO, ARQQ, ATGL. See FTNT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/13/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FTNT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 120 days |
Compare to MSFT, AVGO, CSCO, ARQQ, ATGL
In The Past
Fortinet's stock fell -38.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/17/2023. A -38.3% loss requires a 62.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FTNT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.0% | -5.0% | -5.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.4% | -1.4% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.0% | -1.0% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 05312024 | FTNT | Fortinet | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 60.2% | 71.6% | -6.6% |
| 10312023 | FTNT | Fortinet | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 10.5% | 37.7% | -13.4% |
| 02282023 | FTNT | Fortinet | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 16.9% | -16.7% |
| 08312022 | FTNT | Fortinet | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 20.0% | 23.7% | -5.7% |
| 09302019 | FTNT | Fortinet | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 31.5% | 52.6% | -1.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.0% | -5.0% | -5.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.4% | -1.4% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.0% | -1.0% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 05312024 | FTNT | Fortinet | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 60.2% | 71.6% | -6.6% |
| 10312023 | FTNT | Fortinet | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 10.5% | 37.7% | -13.4% |
| 02282023 | FTNT | Fortinet | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.0% | 16.9% | -16.7% |
| 08312022 | FTNT | Fortinet | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 20.0% | 23.7% | -5.7% |
| 09302019 | FTNT | Fortinet | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 31.5% | 52.6% | -1.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Fortinet
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 79.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 954.6 |
| Rev LTM | 58,290 |
| Op Inc LTM | 17,935 |
| FCF LTM | 19,109 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 17,248 |
| CFO LTM | 19,816 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 17,904 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 35.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 33.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 39.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 41.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 28.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 954.6 |
| P/S | 11.0 |
| P/EBIT | 27.9 |
| P/E | 34.2 |
| P/CFO | 25.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 44.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 88.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 25.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 13.4% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -6.3% | -4.5% | |
| 8/6/2025 | -22.0% | -17.9% | -18.4% |
| 5/7/2025 | -8.4% | -3.3% | -1.7% |
| 2/6/2025 | 2.8% | 5.0% | -8.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | 10.0% | 12.9% | 16.0% |
| 8/6/2024 | 25.3% | 28.1% | 35.8% |
| 5/2/2024 | -9.7% | -10.9% | -9.8% |
| 2/6/2024 | 3.8% | 2.8% | 8.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.7% | 9.5% | 11.6% |
| Median Negative | -7.4% | -8.9% | -13.7% |
| Max Positive | 25.3% | 28.1% | 35.8% |
| Max Negative | -25.1% | -20.1% | -28.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | NEUKOM WILLIAM H. | 6062025 | Buy | 104.22 | 335 | 34,912 | 31,417,800 | Form | |
| 1 | Ohlgart Christiane | Chief Financial Officer | 6062025 | Sell | 104.71 | 1,164 | 121,883 | 634,757 | Form |
| 2 | GOLDMAN KENNETH A | 3122025 | Sell | 100.00 | 2,000 | 200,000 | 1,861,200 | Form | |
| 3 | Xie Michael | VP, ENGINEERING & CTO | 3112025 | Sell | 96.11 | 9,913 | 952,689 | 1,087,614,423 | Form |
| 4 | GOLDMAN KENNETH A | 3112025 | Sell | 99.32 | 1,000 | 99,320 | 2,047,184 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |