FuelCell Energy (FCEL)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $8.575 | Market Cap: $209.6 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment
FuelCell Energy (FCEL)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $8.575Market Cap: $209.6 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -124%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -164% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -132 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -87% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 79% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -63%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -84% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -150% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Fuel Cell Technology, and Hydrogen Infrastructure. | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 101% | |
| Key risksFCEL key risks include [1] persistent unprofitability and a high cash burn rate that strains its financial stability, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 79% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Green Hydrogen Production, Fuel Cell Technology, and Hydrogen Infrastructure. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -124%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -164% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -132 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -87% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -63%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -84% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -150% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 101% |
| Key risksFCEL key risks include [1] persistent unprofitability and a high cash burn rate that strains its financial stability, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FCEL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
FuelCell Energy (FCEL) experienced significant stock movement between August 31, 2025, and December 17, 2025, driven by several key developments.
1. $25 Million Debt Financing from EXIM Bank: On December 1, 2025, FuelCell Energy secured approximately $25 million in debt financing from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM). This non-dilutive capital is earmarked to support the Gyeonggi Green Energy (GGE) fuel cell project in South Korea, the world's largest fuel cell park. This financing not only de-risks the project but also serves as a government validation of FuelCell's technology and its role in exporting clean energy solutions.
2. Strong Q3 2025 Revenue Growth: FuelCell Energy reported a 97% revenue increase in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, reaching $46.7 million. This substantial growth was largely attributed to its long-term service agreement with Gyeonggi Green Energy Co., Ltd. While the company still faced a net loss due to restructuring and non-cash impairment expenses, the significant revenue growth indicated positive commercial momentum.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FCEL Return | 345% | -53% | -47% | -42% | -81% | -8% | -89% |
| Peers Return | 305% | -8% | -26% | -18% | -9% | 71% | 249% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FCEL Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 8% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 42% | 40% | 47% | 42% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FCEL Max Drawdown | -57% | -54% | -51% | -63% | -88% | -59% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -29% | -44% | -35% | -39% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BE, PLUG, BLDP, APD, LIN. See FCEL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FCEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -96.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2614.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 164.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -99.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17396.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 595 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -84.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 550.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to AMSC, THR, LYTS, AIGO, SONC
In The Past
FuelCell Energy's stock fell -96.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -96.3% loss requires a 2614.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FCEL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 21.4% | 21.4% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.7% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.4% | 5.4% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 21.4% | 21.4% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.7% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.4% | 5.4% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for FuelCell Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 48.04 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.6 |
| Rev LTM | 1,247 |
| Op Inc LTM | -5 |
| FCF LTM | -116 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -237 |
| CFO LTM | 44 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -120 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 29.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -41.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -64.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -26.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -63.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -57.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -89.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.6 |
| P/S | 5.9 |
| P/EBIT | 11.6 |
| P/E | -1.0 |
| P/CFO | 8.6 |
| Total Yield | -7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -14.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 20.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 56.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | -35.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 42.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -106.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/9/2025 | 22.7% | 56.2% | 141.5% |
| 6/6/2025 | 24.4% | 21.5% | 7.7% |
| 3/11/2025 | 3.6% | -3.3% | -38.2% |
| 11/15/2024 | -12.1% | 13.0% | 54.8% |
| 9/5/2024 | 1.9% | 9.0% | -12.0% |
| 6/10/2024 | 12.6% | -5.7% | -31.0% |
| 3/7/2024 | -9.0% | -15.6% | -7.4% |
| 12/19/2023 | -4.6% | 15.0% | -23.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| # Negative | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| Median Positive | 9.8% | 9.0% | 23.1% |
| Median Negative | -10.1% | -11.1% | -17.7% |
| Max Positive | 24.4% | 56.2% | 141.5% |
| Max Negative | -22.9% | -37.2% | -39.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9092025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6062025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3112025 | 10-Q 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12272024 | 10-K 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9052024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6102024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3072024 | 10-Q 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12192023 | 10-K 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9112023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6082023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3092023 | 10-Q 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12202022 | 10-K 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9082022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6092022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3102022 | 10-Q 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12292021 | 10-K 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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