FuelCell Energy (FCEL)
Market Price (11/4/2025): $8.27 | Market Cap: $202.1 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment
FuelCell Energy (FCEL)
Market Price (11/4/2025): $8.27Market Cap: $202.1 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -132 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -87% | |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 79% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -63%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -84% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -95% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 79% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -44% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -132 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -87% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -63%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -84% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -95% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
FCEL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FCEL Return | 345% | -53% | -47% | -42% | -81% | -1% | -88% |
| Peers Return | 40% | -13% | -6% | 82% | 53% | 22% | 294% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FCEL Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 8% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 21% | 32% | 40% | 57% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FCEL Max Drawdown | -57% | -54% | -51% | -63% | -88% | -59% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -17% | -35% | -9% | -10% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMSC, THR, LYTS, ADSE, CCTG. See FCEL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FCEL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -96.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2614.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 164.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -99.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17396.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 595 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -84.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 550.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to AMSC, THR, LYTS, ADSE, CCTG
In The Past
FuelCell Energy's stock fell -96.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2021. A -96.3% loss requires a 2614.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FCEL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.8% | -5.8% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.8% | -5.8% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for FuelCell Energy
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | - |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| Rev LTM | 357 |
| Op Inc LTM | 21 |
| FCF LTM | 30 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 20 |
| CFO LTM | 33 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 23 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 37.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 39.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -1.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 15.5 |
| P/E | 23.0 |
| P/CFO | 16.8 |
| Total Yield | 2.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | - |
| 3M Rtn | - |
| 6M Rtn | - |
| 12M Rtn | - |
| 3Y Rtn | - |
| 1M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3M Excs Rtn | - |
| 6M Excs Rtn | - |
| 12M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | - |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9092025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6062025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3112025 | 10-Q 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12272024 | 10-K 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9052024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6102024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3072024 | 10-Q 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12192023 | 10-K 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9112023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6082023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3092023 | 10-Q 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12202022 | 10-K 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9082022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6092022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3102022 | 10-Q 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12292021 | 10-K 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |