Ford Motor (F)
Market Price (10/19/2025): $11.93 | Market Cap: $47.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Ford Motor (F)
Market Price (10/19/2025): $11.93Market Cap: $47.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.9%, FCF Yield is 20% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 259% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.3 Bil | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.0% | |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.9%, FCF Yield is 20% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.3 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55% |
Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 259% |
Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.0% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
F Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
F Return | -4% | 137% | -42% | 16% | -13% | 28% | 70% |
Peers Return | 10% | 23% | -15% | 15% | 5% | 4% | 45% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
F Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 78% | |
Peers Win Rate | 50% | 60% | 38% | 50% | 48% | 44% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
F Max Drawdown | -56% | -3% | -46% | -9% | -17% | -9% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -43% | -7% | -30% | -17% | -13% | -18% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TM, GM, VWAGY, PCAR, HOG. See F Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | F | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -61.2% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 157.8% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -57.4% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 134.9% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -42.3% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 73.4% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 809 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -86.9% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 665.1% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 394 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Ford Motor's stock fell -61.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -61.2% loss requires a 157.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to F. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.0% | -20.0% | -20.0% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.8% | -6.8% | -7.9% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -8.1% | -8.1% | -11.7% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.0% | -20.0% | -20.0% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.8% | -6.8% | -7.9% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -8.1% | -8.1% | -11.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ford Motor
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 42.56 |
Mkt Cap | 52.3 |
Rev LTM | 185,237 |
Op Inc LTM | 7,504 |
FCF LTM | -510 |
FCF 3Y Avg | -1,251 |
CFO LTM | 16,848 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 15,554 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
Rev Chg Q | -4.0% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
Op Mgn LTM | 5.7% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 11.4% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 2.4% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 52.3 |
P/S | 0.3 |
P/EBIT | 6.8 |
P/E | 10.6 |
P/CFO | 3.0 |
Total Yield | 12.9% |
Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.4% |
D/E | 2.9 |
Net D/E | 2.1 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -3.3% |
3M Rtn | 9.1% |
6M Rtn | 16.3% |
12M Rtn | 13.8% |
3Y Rtn | 36.7% |
1M Excs Rtn | -3.8% |
3M Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
6M Excs Rtn | -9.9% |
12M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -47.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ford Blue | 140,627 | 130,782 | 110,466 | ||
Ford Pro | 58,058 | 48,939 | 42,649 | ||
Ford Credit | 10,290 | 8,978 | 10,073 | 11,203 | 12,260 |
Ford Model e | 6,526 | 5,374 | 3,186 | ||
Ford Next | 3 | 99 | 118 | 47 | 36 |
Unallocated Amounts and Eliminations | -39,313 | -36,115 | -30,177 | ||
Corporate Other | 26 | 0 | 0 | ||
Interest on Debt | 0 | 0 | |||
Special Items | 0 | 0 | |||
Adjustments | 0 | 0 | |||
Automotive | 115,894 | 143,604 | |||
Total | 176,191 | 158,057 | 136,341 | 127,144 | 155,900 |
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ford Credit | 148,521 | 137,954 | 134,428 | 157,637 | 160,964 |
Ford Blue | 58,990 | 56,023 | 55,456 | ||
Unallocated Amounts and Eliminations | 49,002 | 54,053 | -1,417 | ||
Ford Model e | 13,648 | 5,285 | 2,563 | ||
Ford Pro | 2,942 | 2,177 | 1,809 | ||
Ford Next | 207 | 392 | 3,325 | 3,459 | 419 |
Corporate Other | 60,871 | 45,410 | 36,190 | ||
Interest on Debt | 0 | ||||
Special Items | 0 | ||||
Adjustments | -1,986 | -2,622 | |||
Automotive | 62,741 | 63,586 | |||
Total | 273,310 | 255,884 | 257,035 | 267,261 | 258,537 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
7/30/2025 | 1.8% | 4.5% | 9.2% |
5/5/2025 | 2.7% | 5.3% | 2.2% |
2/5/2025 | -7.5% | -7.8% | 2.1% |
10/28/2024 | -8.4% | -8.9% | -1.0% |
7/24/2024 | -18.4% | -20.8% | -18.9% |
4/24/2024 | 0.7% | -5.8% | -5.4% |
2/6/2024 | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% |
10/26/2023 | -12.2% | -9.3% | -7.5% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 11 | 10 | 13 |
# Negative | 13 | 14 | 11 |
Median Positive | 2.6% | 4.1% | 9.2% |
Median Negative | -7.6% | -7.4% | -7.5% |
Max Positive | 8.7% | 20.1% | 28.0% |
Max Negative | -18.4% | -20.8% | -26.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2032023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 10282021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Frick Andrew | President, Ford Blue & Model e | 7032025 | Sell | 11.00 | 30,000 | 330,000 | 1,253,329 | Form |
External Quote Links
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FinViz |