Tearsheet

Ford Motor (F)


Market Price (10/19/2025): $11.93 | Market Cap: $47.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers

Ford Motor (F)


Market Price (10/19/2025): $11.93
Market Cap: $47.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automobile Manufacturers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.9%, FCF Yield is 20%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 259%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.3 Bil
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.0%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.9%, FCF Yield is 20%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.3 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -55%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 259%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.0%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

F Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
F Return-4%137%-42%16%-13%28%70%
Peers Return10%23%-15%15%5%4%45%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
F Win Rate58%75%33%58%50%78% 
Peers Win Rate50%60%38%50%48%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
F Max Drawdown-56%-3%-46%-9%-17%-9% 
Peers Max Drawdown-43%-7%-30%-17%-13%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TM, GM, VWAGY, PCAR, HOG. See F Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-61.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven157.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-57.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven134.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven246 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-42.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven73.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven809 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-86.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven665.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven394 days1480 days


How Low Can It Go?

Ford Motor's stock fell -61.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -61.2% loss requires a 157.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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Better Bets than Ford Motor (F)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to F. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-20.0%-20.0%-20.0%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.5%-1.5%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.8%-6.8%-7.9%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-8.1%-8.1%-11.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-20.0%-20.0%-20.0%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.5%-1.5%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.8%-6.8%-7.9%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-8.1%-8.1%-11.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Ford Motor

Financials

FTMGMVWAGYPCARHOGMedian
NameFord Mot.Toyota M.General .Volkswag.PACCAR Harley-D. 
Mkt Price11.92197.8358.3810.9294.6926.7442.56
Mkt Cap47.3257.856.254.749.83.252.3
Rev LTM182,87448,452,150187,600324,22132,3614,475185,237
Op Inc LTM4,3134,653,26510,65318,7234,3561857,504
FCF LTM9,309-113,429-1,842-11,1022,363821-510
FCF 3Y Avg5,908-793,290-3,192-8,8082,651689-1,251
CFO LTM17,7174,889,75423,97015,9794,08299616,848
CFO 3Y Avg13,9863,990,25921,61417,1234,10387715,554

Growth & Margins

FTMGMVWAGYPCARHOGMedian
NameFord Mot.Toyota M.General .Volkswag.PACCAR Harley-D. 
Rev Chg LTM3.0%4.5%5.3%-0.2%-8.6%-24.8%1.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.1%15.2%12.9%9.0%11.3%-4.4%11.2%
Rev Chg Q-5.0%3.5%-1.8%-3.0%-14.9%-19.3%-4.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.1%0.9%-0.4%-0.8%-3.9%-6.5%-1.0%
Op Mgn LTM2.4%9.6%5.7%5.8%13.5%4.1%5.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.1%10.0%6.3%6.3%14.8%10.4%8.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-0.4%-0.9%-0.4%-1.1%-2.4%-0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM9.7%10.1%12.8%4.9%12.6%22.3%11.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.9%8.9%12.1%5.4%12.4%16.5%10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM5.1%-0.2%-1.0%-3.4%7.3%18.4%2.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.3%-1.8%-1.8%-2.8%8.0%13.1%0.8%

Valuation

FTMGMVWAGYPCARHOGMedian
NameFord Mot.Toyota M.General .Volkswag.PACCAR Harley-D. 
Mkt Cap47.3257.856.254.749.83.252.3
P/S0.30.00.30.21.50.70.3
P/EBIT6.40.07.13.211.410.86.8
P/E9.40.111.86.114.313.410.6
P/CFO2.70.12.33.412.23.33.0
Total Yield14.4%2,114.4%9.6%16.4%11.4%10.2%12.9%
Dividend Yield3.8%457.1%1.1%0.0%4.5%2.7%3.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg12.4%-304.3%-6.2%-14.5%5.3%18.4%-0.4%
D/E3.3149.12.43.40.32.12.9
Net D/E2.687.21.92.30.11.62.1

Returns

FTMGMVWAGYPCARHOGMedian
NameFord Mot.Toyota M.General .Volkswag.PACCAR Harley-D. 
1M Rtn1.5%-1.3%-1.5%-5.1%-6.6%-10.1%-3.3%
3M Rtn8.2%17.3%10.0%3.0%1.4%14.2%9.1%
6M Rtn27.3%12.2%31.7%11.8%8.1%20.4%16.3%
12M Rtn15.5%15.3%20.0%12.2%-10.4%-24.3%13.8%
3Y Rtn24.5%48.8%79.2%-9.1%77.7%-18.3%36.7%
1M Excs Rtn1.0%-1.8%-2.0%-5.6%-7.1%-10.6%-3.8%
3M Excs Rtn1.1%10.7%4.3%-3.8%-3.4%8.4%2.7%
6M Excs Rtn1.1%-14.0%5.6%-14.4%-18.0%-5.8%-9.9%
12M Excs Rtn3.7%2.1%8.7%-2.6%-21.9%-36.8%-0.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-55.4%-39.8%0.8%-90.3%-4.2%-106.0%-47.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Ford Blue140,627130,782110,466  
Ford Pro58,05848,93942,649  
Ford Credit10,2908,97810,07311,20312,260
Ford Model e6,5265,3743,186  
Ford Next3991184736
Unallocated Amounts and Eliminations-39,313-36,115-30,177  
Corporate Other  2600
Interest on Debt  00 
Special Items  00 
Adjustments   00
Automotive   115,894143,604
Total176,191158,057136,341127,144155,900


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Ford Credit148,521137,954134,428157,637160,964
Ford Blue58,99056,02355,456  
Unallocated Amounts and Eliminations49,00254,053-1,417  
Ford Model e13,6485,2852,563  
Ford Pro2,9422,1771,809  
Ford Next2073923,3253,459419
Corporate Other  60,87145,41036,190
Interest on Debt  0  
Special Items  0  
Adjustments   -1,986-2,622
Automotive   62,74163,586
Total273,310255,884257,035267,261258,537


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity173,542,807
Short Interest: % Change Since 9152025-1.5%
Average Daily Volume69,735,419
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.49
Basic Shares Quantity3,968,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/30/20251.8%4.5%9.2%
5/5/20252.7%5.3%2.2%
2/5/2025-7.5%-7.8%2.1%
10/28/2024-8.4%-8.9%-1.0%
7/24/2024-18.4%-20.8%-18.9%
4/24/20240.7%-5.8%-5.4%
2/6/20246.0%5.1%5.6%
10/26/2023-12.2%-9.3%-7.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111013
# Negative131411
Median Positive2.6%4.1%9.2%
Median Negative-7.6%-7.4%-7.5%
Max Positive8.7%20.1%28.0%
Max Negative-18.4%-20.8%-26.6%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023207202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022203202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211028202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Frick AndrewPresident, Ford Blue & Model e7032025Sell11.0030,000330,0001,253,329Form