Ford Motor (F)
Market Price (3/17/2026): $11.71 | Market Cap: $46.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Ford Motor (F)
Market Price (3/17/2026): $11.71Market Cap: $46.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 21 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -9.2 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.9% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.8%, FCF Yield is 27% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 273% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.8% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, and Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18% | |
| Key risksF key risks include [1] substantial financial losses within its Model e electric vehicle division and [2] persistent product quality issues driving numerous and costly vehicle recalls. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 21 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 3.8%, FCF Yield is 27% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, and Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -9.2 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.9% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 273% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.8% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18% |
| Key risksF key risks include [1] substantial financial losses within its Model e electric vehicle division and [2] persistent product quality issues driving numerous and costly vehicle recalls. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ford Motor (F) stock has lost about 10% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Q4 2025 Financial Results and Lowered Full-Year Profitability.
Ford reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13 for the fourth quarter of 2025, missing analyst forecasts of $0.18 by 27.78%. The company also recorded a significant GAAP net loss of $11.1 billion for the quarter, primarily attributed to impairments related to its electric vehicle (EV) assets. Full-year 2025 adjusted EBIT declined to $6.8 billion, a notable decrease from $10.2 billion in 2024.
2. Persistent Losses in the EV (Model e) Division and Softening EV Demand.
The Model e division continued to be a drag on profitability, posting a full-year EBIT loss of $4.8 billion in 2025. This was compounded by a substantial decline in Ford's EV sales, which dropped over 50% in the fourth quarter of 2025, partially due to the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit. The broader EV market also experienced a slowdown in adoption, with global passenger vehicle sales declining 1.2% in January 2026 across major markets.
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1. Disappointing Q4 2025 Financial Results and Lowered Full-Year Profitability.
Ford reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13 for the fourth quarter of 2025, missing analyst forecasts of $0.18 by 27.78%. The company also recorded a significant GAAP net loss of $11.1 billion for the quarter, primarily attributed to impairments related to its electric vehicle (EV) assets. Full-year 2025 adjusted EBIT declined to $6.8 billion, a notable decrease from $10.2 billion in 2024.
2. Persistent Losses in the EV (Model e) Division and Softening EV Demand.
The Model e division continued to be a drag on profitability, posting a full-year EBIT loss of $4.8 billion in 2025. This was compounded by a substantial decline in Ford's EV sales, which dropped over 50% in the fourth quarter of 2025, partially due to the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit. The broader EV market also experienced a slowdown in adoption, with global passenger vehicle sales declining 1.2% in January 2026 across major markets.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.9% change in F stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.14 | 11.71 | -10.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 189,588 | 187,267 | -1.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.2 | -9.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,983 | 3,985 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.9% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| F | -10.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.1% | 43.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -5.1% | 48.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.7% change in F stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 1.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.51 | 11.71 | 1.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 185,250 | 187,267 | 1.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,980 | 3,985 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| F | 1.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.0% | 37.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.0% | 38.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.9% change in F stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 27.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 9.08 | 11.71 | 28.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 184,992 | 187,267 | 1.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.2 | 27.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,972 | 3,985 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| F | 28.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 50.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 4.6% | 54.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.1% change in F stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 18.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.00 | 11.71 | 17.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 158,057 | 187,267 | 18.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.2 | -1.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,005 | 3,985 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| F | 17.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.1% | 44.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 57.9% | 46.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| F Return | 137% | -42% | 16% | -13% | 42% | -10% | 77% |
| Peers Return | 47% | -44% | 29% | 8% | 25% | -14% | 23% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 77% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| F Win Rate | 75% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 75% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 35% | 53% | 53% | 55% | 27% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| F Max Drawdown | -3% | -46% | -9% | -17% | -9% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -53% | -23% | -29% | -25% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GM, HOG, TSLA, F, RIVN. See F Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | F | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 157.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 134.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 809 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -86.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 665.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 394 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to GM, HOG, TSLA, F, RIVN
In The Past
Ford Motor's stock fell -61.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -61.2% loss requires a 157.8% gain to breakeven.
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About Ford Motor (F)
Ford Motor Company designs, manufactures, markets, and services a range of Ford trucks, cars, sport utility vehicles, electrified vehicles, and Lincoln luxury vehicles worldwide. It operates through three segments: Automotive, Mobility, and Ford Credit. The Automotive segment sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. The Mobility segment designs and builds mobility services; and provides self-driving systems development services. The Ford Credit segment primarily engages in vehicle-related financing and leasing activities to and through automotive dealers. It provides retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, such as leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers. This segment also offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs. The company has a strategic collaboration with ARB Corporation Limited to develop a suite of aftermarket products for the new Ford Bronco. Ford Motor Company was incorporated in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are two analogies to describe Ford Motor Company:
- Ford is an American automotive giant like General Motors, building and financing a broad range of cars, trucks, and SUVs.
- Ford is a global automotive powerhouse like Toyota, known for its diverse vehicle lineup, from economy cars to luxury SUVs, and its extensive financial services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Vehicles: Ford and Lincoln brand trucks, cars, sport utility vehicles, and electrified vehicles.
- Service Parts and Accessories: Parts and aftermarket accessories sold for Ford and Lincoln vehicles.
- Vehicle Financing and Leasing: Provides retail installment sale contracts, direct financing leases, and wholesale loans for vehicle purchases to customers and dealers.
- Mobility Services: Designs and builds various mobility solutions.
- Self-Driving Systems Development: Offers services focused on the development of autonomous driving technologies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ford Motor Company (F) sells to a diverse range of customers. While a significant portion of its vehicles are ultimately purchased by individuals, the company also sells directly to various commercial and governmental entities, as well as to its dealer network. Based on the provided description, its major customer categories are:
- Automotive Dealers and Distributors: These businesses purchase Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories from Ford for resale to end-users. They also utilize Ford Credit for wholesale financing of vehicle inventory and dealership operations.
- Individual Consumers: This category represents the general public who purchase Ford and Lincoln vehicles for personal use. These sales are primarily facilitated through the company's network of automotive dealers.
- Commercial Fleets, Daily Rental Car Companies, and Governments: These are organizational customers that purchase vehicles in larger quantities for specific operational purposes. This includes businesses requiring vehicles for their commercial fleets (e.g., utility companies, delivery services), companies like Hertz or Avis for their rental fleets, and various governmental bodies (e.g., police departments, municipal services).
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- Magna International Inc. (MGA)
- Lear Corporation (LEA)
- Aptiv PLC (APTV)
- Adient plc (ADNT)
- BorgWarner Inc. (BWA)
- Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT)
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- ARB Corporation Limited (ARB.AX)
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Jim Farley, President and Chief Executive Officer
Jim Farley became the CEO of Ford in October 2020. He joined Ford in 2007. Prior to his time at Ford, he spent 15 years at Toyota and Lexus, where he held significant roles including Group Vice President and General Manager of Lexus, overseeing sales, marketing, and customer satisfaction. Farley was also responsible for the successful launch and rollout of Toyota's Scion brand. Before becoming CEO, he served as Ford's chief operating officer, president of New Businesses, Technology and Strategy, and executive vice president and president of Global Markets.
John Lawler, Chief Financial Officer
John Lawler was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Ford Motor Company in October 2020. He began his career at Ford in 1990 as a finance analyst and has accumulated over 30 years of experience with the company. Throughout his tenure, Lawler has held a variety of pivotal roles globally, including Chief Executive Officer of Ford China, Chief Financial Officer for Ford Asia Pacific and Africa, Vice President of Strategy, and Vice President and Corporate Controller and CFO of Global Markets.
Kumar Galhotra, Chief Operating Officer
Kumar Galhotra was appointed Chief Operating Officer of Ford Motor Company in October 2023. He joined Ford in 1988. In his role as COO, he leads Ford's global industrial system, which includes product development, supply chain management, and manufacturing. Prior to this, Galhotra served as President of Ford Blue, the company's internal combustion engine business, and held positions as President of Ford Americas and International Markets Group, President North America, Group Vice President Lincoln, and Chief Marketing Officer.
Doug Field, Chief Advanced Technology and Embedded Systems Officer
Doug Field joined Ford in September 2021 as Chief Advanced Technology and Embedded Systems Officer, reporting to CEO Jim Farley. He is responsible for leading Ford's efforts in developing next-generation connected products and experiences, including the Blue Oval Intelligence tech stack. Before rejoining Ford, Field was Vice President, Special Projects, at Apple, where he led autonomous electric car development efforts. He also served as Senior Vice President, Engineering, at Tesla, leading the development of the Model 3. Field initially began his career at Ford in 1987.
Lisa Materazzo, Global Chief Marketing Officer
Lisa Materazzo was appointed Global Chief Marketing Officer at Ford in September 2023, reporting to President and CEO Jim Farley. In this role, she is responsible for advanced product planning and all marketing activities across Ford Blue, Ford Model e, and Ford Pro, as well as overseeing Ford Performance and Lincoln. Materazzo joined Ford after a 20-year career at Toyota, where she served as Vice President of Marketing at Toyota North America and held leadership roles at Lexus and Scion.
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Here are the key risks to Ford Motor Company:
-
Challenges and Profitability in the Electric Vehicle (EV) Transition: Ford is facing significant financial losses from its Model e (EV) division, with projected losses of billions of dollars. The company is incurring high capital expenditures to simultaneously develop both traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and electric vehicle platforms, which is nearly unsustainable. There is also intense competition in the EV market, particularly for lower-cost vehicles, which could lead to thin profit margins. High interest rates have also made carrying vehicle inventory more expensive for dealers, contributing to inventory risk for EVs.
-
Financial Health and High Leverage: Ford's financial health is a concern, with the company receiving an 'F' rating for dividend safety, indicating potential issues with sustaining dividend payments. The company exhibits a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.47 and an Altman Z-Score of 1.05, placing it in the distress zone and implying a potential risk of financial distress. Additionally, Ford carries substantial legacy pension and labor costs, which can impact its financial flexibility.
-
Product Quality Issues, Recalls, and Reputation Damage: Ford has experienced a troubling streak of product quality issues, setting a record for the most recalls in a single year in 2025, with more than 150 issued. Significant recalls have continued into early 2026, affecting millions of SUVs due to issues with backup cameras and windshield wiper motors. These ongoing recalls not only hurt Ford's reputation but also negatively impact the company's financial performance due to associated costs. Furthermore, regulatory scrutiny and investigations by the NHTSA regarding safety concerns, along with user confusion over systems like BlueCruise, could further affect the brand's perception.
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Clear Emerging Threats for Ford Motor Company (F):
- Disruptive Innovation and Market Dominance by Pure-Play Electric Vehicle (EV) Manufacturers: Companies like Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid have pioneered and scaled electric vehicle technology with direct-to-consumer sales models, advanced battery technology, and integrated software platforms. If these companies continue to out-innovate, achieve superior economies of scale, and capture significant market share with vehicles that are perceived as more advanced, desirable, or cost-effective than Ford's offerings, they could significantly erode Ford's traditional automotive sales base and profit margins, despite Ford's own investment in electrified vehicles. This parallels the threat of the iPhone to Research in Motion's BlackBerry, where a new, more agile player with a different approach disrupted the market leader.
- Rapid Expansion of Autonomous Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) Offerings: The proliferation of fully autonomous vehicle networks and ride-hailing services, primarily developed by technology companies (e.g., Waymo, Cruise), could fundamentally change personal transportation by reducing the need for individual car ownership, especially in urban and suburban environments. If these services become the preferred mode of transport, providing "mobility" without individuals needing to purchase cars, it would directly impact demand for new vehicle purchases, which is the core of Ford's Automotive segment. This aligns with the threat Netflix posed to Blockbuster or Uber to traditional taxicab businesses, where a new service model disrupts the traditional product ownership model.
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The addressable markets for Ford Motor Company's main products and services demonstrate significant scale globally and within the United States.
Automotive Segment (Trucks, Cars, Sport Utility Vehicles, Electrified Vehicles, and Lincoln Luxury Vehicles)
- Global Automotive Market: In 2025, the global automotive market is projected to be approximately USD 4,544 billion or USD 4,357.69 billion. Global light-vehicle sales are estimated at about 91.7 million units in 2025. This market is expected to grow to USD 7,822.1 billion by 2035.
- U.S. Automotive Market: The U.S. light-vehicle market is estimated to have sold 16.3 million units in 2025.
- Global Electric Vehicle (EV) Market: The global electric vehicle market size was estimated at USD 988.70 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 2,763.17 billion by 2035. Global EV sales are forecast to reach 23.7 million units in 2025, accounting for 25.5% of the light-vehicle market.
- U.S. Electric Vehicle (EV) Market: The U.S. electric vehicle market size is projected to be worth USD 122.02 billion in 2025 and reach USD 263.46 billion by 2032. U.S. EV sales were projected at 2.25 million units in 2025.
Ford Credit Segment (Vehicle-Related Financing and Leasing Activities)
- Global Automotive Financing Market: The global auto finance market size was valued at USD 316.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 535.65 billion by 2033. Another estimate places the global automotive finance market size at USD 654.99 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 1,316.90 billion by 2034.
- U.S. Automotive Financing Market: The U.S. automotive finance market is projected to reach approximately USD 130.50 billion by 2032. In the first quarter of 2025, new vehicles constituted 43.29% of automotive financing.
Mobility Segment (Mobility Services and Self-Driving Systems Development)
- Global Mobility as a Service (MaaS) Market: The global mobility as a service market size is estimated at USD 302.18 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 1,415.96 billion by 2035. Another report estimates the market at USD 538 billion in 2025, growing to USD 2,962.3 billion by 2035.
- U.S. Mobility as a Service Market: The U.S. shared mobility market size was USD 20.84 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 64.67 billion by 2033. The U.S. mobility as a service market reached USD 2.6 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 36.7 billion by 2033.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Ford Motor Company (F) is strategically positioning itself for future revenue growth over the next two to three years by focusing on several key areas within its diverse operations.
Here are 4 expected drivers of Ford's future revenue growth:
- Continued Expansion and Profitability of Ford Pro: The Ford Pro segment, dedicated to commercial vehicles and services, is a significant growth driver. It has demonstrated strong revenue growth, high margins, and increasing demand for its commercial trucks and vans, such as the Transit and Super Duty. Furthermore, Ford Pro is expanding its high-margin software subscriptions and aftermarket services, which are expected to contribute substantially to future earnings.
- Increased Hybrid Vehicle Offerings: Ford is actively expanding its hybrid vehicle lineup across its Ford Blue segment to meet evolving customer demand and enhance profitability. The company anticipates that hybrids, along with extended-range and fully electric vehicles, will account for approximately 50% of its global volume by 2030, with a focus on more hybrid models of its popular products being introduced.
- Launch of New, Affordable Electric Vehicles via the Universal EV Platform: While the Model e electric vehicle division has faced initial losses, Ford is investing in a new, low-cost, and flexible Universal EV Platform. This platform is designed to underpin a high-volume family of smaller, efficient, and affordable electric vehicles, with the first midsize electric pickup truck on this platform slated for production starting in 2027. This strategic shift aims to improve the profitability and revenue generation of its EV segment.
- Development of a New Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) Business: Ford is entering the battery energy storage market, leveraging its battery manufacturing capabilities to create a new and diversified revenue stream. The company plans to convert existing battery plants to manufacture advanced battery energy storage systems for various applications, including data centers and utilities, with initial shipments projected to begin in late 2027.
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<h2>Capital Allocation Decisions</h2>
<h3>Share Repurchases</h3>
<ul>
<li>Ford authorized a program in March 2026 to buy back up to 31.7 million shares of common stock. This is primarily intended to offset the dilutive effect of share-based compensation granted to employees during 2026 and to settle conversion-related amounts on its 0.00% Senior Convertible Notes due March 15, 2026.</li>
<li>Annual share repurchases amounted to $335 million in 2023 and $426 million in 2024.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Share Issuance</h3>
<ul>
<li>The number of outstanding shares increased from 3,963 million in December 2024 to 3,979 million in December 2025.</li>
<li>Shares outstanding also increased from 3,984 million in September 2025 to 3,985 million in December 2025.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Outbound Investments</h3>
<ul>
<li>Ford is investing approximately $3 billion to expand Super Duty F-Series production across three North American facilities, including $2.3 billion for the Oakville Assembly Complex starting in 2026.</li>
<li>The company announced a $5 billion investment, comprising $2 billion at its Louisville Assembly Plant and $3 billion at its BlueOval Battery Park Michigan factory, to develop electric vehicles and manufacture prismatic lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries.</li>
<li>Ford committed $5 billion to develop a new "Universal EV Platform" for future electric models and plans to invest roughly $2 billion in the two years from December 2025 to scale a new battery energy storage business.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Capital Expenditures</h3>
<ul>
<li>Capital expenditures were $6.227 billion in 2021, $6.866 billion in 2022, $8.236 billion in 2023, $8.684 billion in 2024, and $8.815 billion in 2025.</li>
<li>For 2026, planned capital expenditures are projected to be between $9.5 billion and $10.5 billion.</li>
<li>The primary focus of these expenditures includes strategic growth, investments in next-generation products, efficiency improvements, and a pivot in EV strategy to include more hybrids and a new battery energy storage business. Approximately $1.5 billion of the 2026 capital expenditure is allocated to scaling up Ford Energy.</li>
</ul>
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| What Is Happening With Ford Motor Stock? | 01/03/2026 | |
| Ford Motor Earnings Notes | 12/27/2025 | |
| Triggers That Could Ignite the Next Rally In Ford Motor Stock | 12/13/2025 | |
| How Does Ford Motor Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 11/26/2025 | |
| What Can Trigger Ford Motor Stock's Slide? | 11/08/2025 | |
| Time To Buy Ford Motor Stock? | 10/28/2025 | |
| Ford Motor vs UnitedHealth: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| General Motors vs Ford Motor: Which Stock Could Rally? | 01/28/2026 | |
| Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 01/08/2026 | |
| The Next Big Rally in Ford Motor Stock Could Start Like This | 12/13/2025 | |
| What Could Light a Fire Under Ford Motor Stock | 11/08/2025 | |
| 3 Forces That Could Shake Ford Motor Stock | 11/07/2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to F.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | MBLY | Mobileye Global | Dip Buy | DB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % EquityBuying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | SAH | Sonic Automotive | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.9% | -5.9% | -6.1% |
| 02132026 | MAT | Mattel | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | SONO | Sonos | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.7% | -0.7% | -4.6% |
| 02062026 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.6% | 1.6% | -0.8% |
| 12312021 | F | Ford Motor | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -44.9% | -42.2% | -46.1% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 17.82 |
| Mkt Cap | 46.7 |
| Rev LTM | 94,827 |
| Op Inc LTM | 387 |
| FCF LTM | 1,771 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 610 |
| CFO LTM | 14,747 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 14,309 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | -5.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -3.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 46.7 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 4.1 |
| P/E | 6.0 |
| P/CFO | 2.5 |
| Total Yield | 0.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.4% |
| D/E | 1.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -15.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 42.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 25.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 23.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -57.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Blue | 140,627 | 130,782 | |||
| Ford Pro | 58,058 | 48,939 | |||
| Ford Credit | 10,290 | 8,978 | 10,073 | 11,203 | 12,260 |
| Ford Model e | 6,526 | 5,374 | |||
| Ford Next | 3 | 99 | 118 | 47 | 41 |
| Unallocated Amounts and Eliminations | -39,313 | -36,141 | |||
| Corporate Other | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Interest on Debt | 0 | 0 | |||
| Special Items | 0 | 0 | |||
| Adjustments | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Automotive | 126,150 | 115,894 | 143,599 | ||
| Total | 176,191 | 158,057 | 136,341 | 127,144 | 155,900 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Credit | 148,521 | 137,954 | 134,428 | 157,637 | 160,697 |
| Ford Blue | 58,990 | 56,023 | |||
| Unallocated Amounts and Eliminations | 49,002 | -1,527 | |||
| Ford Model e | 13,648 | 5,285 | |||
| Ford Pro | 2,942 | 2,177 | |||
| Ford Next | 207 | 392 | 3,325 | 3,459 | 1,034 |
| Corporate Other | 55,580 | 51,730 | 45,410 | 0 | |
| Interest on Debt | 0 | ||||
| Special Items | 0 | ||||
| Adjustments | -1,417 | -1,986 | -4,542 | ||
| Automotive | 68,969 | 62,741 | 101,348 | ||
| Total | 273,310 | 255,884 | 257,035 | 267,261 | 258,537 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $11.71 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 46.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/01/1972 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -18.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $13.44 | $12.12 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -12.9% | -3.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 30.1% | 33.0% |
| Downside Capture | 131.23 | 94.42 |
| Upside Capture | 58.55 | 101.01 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 45.6% | 51.0% |
F Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.81 | 1.06 | 1.02 | 0.98 | 0.87 | 1.01 |
| Up Beta | 1.26 | 1.67 | 1.68 | 1.07 | 0.94 | 1.08 |
| Down Beta | 0.72 | 1.14 | 1.02 | 1.06 | 0.66 | 0.82 |
| Up Capture | 99% | 117% | 106% | 115% | 124% | 102% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 16 | 26 | 58 | 130 | 388 |
| Down Capture | 40% | 53% | 64% | 74% | 87% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 25 | 35 | 65 | 117 | 348 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 29.3% | 33.0% | 0.81 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 17.4% | 23.6% | 0.61 | 54.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.5% | 18.9% | 0.94 | 50.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 68.7% | 26.2% | 1.98 | 1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.7% | 17.3% | 0.91 | 13.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.3% | 16.2% | 0.37 | 48.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -9.2% | 44.2% | -0.09 | 27.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 4.4% | 39.1% | 0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.4% | 23.6% | 0.28 | 55.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.60 | 53.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 17.2% | 1.12 | 3.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 16.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 48.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.1% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 21.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | 3.8% | 36.7% | 0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.6% | 21.9% | 0.53 | 57.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.7% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 56.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.76 | 1.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 23.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 50.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.9% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 14.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/10/2026 | 2.1% | 2.1% | -11.3% |
| 10/23/2025 | 12.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% |
| 7/30/2025 | 1.8% | 3.1% | 9.2% |
| 5/5/2025 | 2.7% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| 2/5/2025 | -7.5% | -7.8% | 2.1% |
| 10/28/2024 | -8.4% | -8.9% | -1.0% |
| 7/24/2024 | -18.4% | -20.8% | -18.9% |
| 4/24/2024 | 0.7% | -5.8% | -5.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 3.5% | 9.0% |
| Median Negative | -7.6% | -7.1% | -9.4% |
| Max Positive | 12.2% | 20.1% | 28.0% |
| Max Negative | -18.4% | -20.8% | -19.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/07/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thornton, John L | Direct | Buy | 11182025 | 13.19 | 7,520 | 99,189 | 5,918,313 | Form | |
| 2 | Frick, Andrew | President, Ford Blue & Model e | Direct | Sell | 7032025 | 11.00 | 30,000 | 330,000 | 1,253,329 | Form |
| 3 | Frick, Andrew | President, Ford Blue & Model e | Direct | Sell | 7032025 | 11.50 | 30,000 | 345,000 | 965,298 | Form |
| 4 | Ford, William Clay Jr | Executive Chair and Chair | Voting Trust - As Trustee | Buy | 2232026 | 13.82 | 140,000 | 1,934,450 | 54,062,350 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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