Ford Motor (F)
Market Price (12/9/2025): $13.14 | Market Cap: $52.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Ford Motor (F)
Market Price (12/9/2025): $13.14Market Cap: $52.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.5%, FCF Yield is 25% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.0%, Dist 3Y High is -4.0% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 257% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% | Sharp Decline in EV Sales U.S. electric vehicle sales plunged 60.8% in November 2025 after federal tax credit expiration. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | High Debt-to-Equity Ratio Ford's Debt/Equity of 3.5 is considerably higher than some industry peers like PACCAR (0.3). | Model e Segment Losses The EV division reported a $1.4 billion loss in Q3 2025, totaling $3.6 billion year-to-date. |
| Strong Q3 2025 Earnings EPS of $0.45 and revenue of $50.53 billion beat estimates and grew 9.4% YoY. | Significant Downturn Vulnerability Experienced a -61.2% loss during the 2022 Inflation Shock and has not fully recovered. | |
| Strategic European EV Partnership Collaboration with Renault for two Ford-branded EVs on Ampere platform by 2028. | Opportunity Cost in Growth Ford's LTM revenue growth of 3.7% trails industry leaders like LCID (45.9%) and RIVN (28.2%). |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
F Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points that likely influenced the movement of Ford Motor (F) stock during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 9, 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Exceeded Expectations.
Ford reported impressive third-quarter 2025 financial results, with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.38. Additionally, the company's revenue reached $50.53 billion, significantly exceeding the estimated $43.08 billion and marking a 9.4% increase year-over-year. This strong financial performance likely provided a significant positive catalyst for the stock.
2. Strategic European EV Partnership with Renault Group.
On December 9, 2025, Ford announced a major strategic partnership with Renault Group. This collaboration involves jointly developing two Ford-branded electric vehicles (EVs) on Renault's Ampere platform, with a targeted showroom arrival in 2028. This move is designed to strengthen Ford's commercial vehicle business and expand its electrified passenger vehicle offerings in Europe, signaling a robust long-term EV strategy.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| F Return | -4% | 137% | -42% | 16% | -13% | 43% | 89% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 10% | -3% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 43% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| F Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 30% | 33% | 25% | 30% | 35% | 35% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| F Max Drawdown | -56% | -3% | -46% | -9% | -17% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -5% | -15% | -12% | -5% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GM, PCAR, HOG, EMPD, SBLX. See F Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/8/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | F | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 157.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 134.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 809 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -86.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 665.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 394 days | 1480 days |
Compare to GM, PCAR, HOG, EMPD, SBLX
In The Past
Ford Motor's stock fell -61.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -61.2% loss requires a 157.8% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Ford Motor Earnings Notes | |||
| How Does Ford Motor Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | |||
| Triggers That Could Ignite the Next Rally In Ford Motor Stock | |||
| What Can Trigger Ford Motor Stock's Slide? | |||
| What Is Happening With Ford Motor Stock? | |||
| Time To Buy Ford Motor Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| How Low Can Ford Motor Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Ford Motor vs UnitedHealth: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Ford Motor vs General Motors: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Better Bet Than F Stock: Pay Less Than Ford Motor To Get More From OKE, CCL | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| How Does Ford Motor Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | November 26th, 2025 | ||
| What Could Light a Fire Under Ford Motor Stock | November 8th, 2025 | ||
| 3 Forces That Could Shake Ford Motor Stock | November 7th, 2025 | ||
| Ford Motor Stock To $9? | October 28th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: QCOM, KDP, SMCI | Losers: ALB, NEM, F | October 28th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to F. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.9% | 12.9% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.0% | 5.0% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.9% | 12.9% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.0% | 5.0% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ford Motor
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 17.73 |
| Mkt Cap | 52.3 |
| Rev LTM | 17,098 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,960 |
| FCF LTM | 189 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 262 |
| CFO LTM | 2,634 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,593 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -15.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | -9.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 52.3 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 7.3 |
| P/E | 10.1 |
| P/CFO | 2.4 |
| Total Yield | 9.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| D/E | 1.5 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 55.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 9.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -20.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Blue | 140,627 | 130,782 | |||
| Ford Pro | 58,058 | 48,939 | |||
| Ford Credit | 10,290 | 8,978 | 10,073 | 11,203 | 12,260 |
| Ford Model e | 6,526 | 5,374 | |||
| Ford Next | 3 | 99 | 118 | 47 | 41 |
| Unallocated Amounts and Eliminations | -39,313 | -36,141 | |||
| Corporate Other | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Interest on Debt | 0 | 0 | |||
| Special Items | 0 | 0 | |||
| Adjustments | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Automotive | 126,150 | 115,894 | 143,599 | ||
| Total | 176,191 | 158,057 | 136,341 | 127,144 | 155,900 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Credit | 148,521 | 137,954 | 134,428 | 157,637 | 160,697 |
| Ford Blue | 58,990 | 56,023 | |||
| Unallocated Amounts and Eliminations | 49,002 | -1,527 | |||
| Ford Model e | 13,648 | 5,285 | |||
| Ford Pro | 2,942 | 2,177 | |||
| Ford Next | 207 | 392 | 3,325 | 3,459 | 1,034 |
| Corporate Other | 55,580 | 51,730 | 45,410 | 0 | |
| Interest on Debt | 0 | ||||
| Special Items | 0 | ||||
| Adjustments | -1,417 | -1,986 | -4,542 | ||
| Automotive | 68,969 | 62,741 | 101,348 | ||
| Total | 273,310 | 255,884 | 257,035 | 267,261 | 258,537 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | 12.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% |
| 7/30/2025 | 1.8% | 3.1% | 9.2% |
| 5/5/2025 | 2.7% | 5.3% | 2.2% |
| 2/5/2025 | -7.5% | -7.8% | 2.1% |
| 10/28/2024 | -8.4% | -8.9% | -1.0% |
| 7/24/2024 | -18.4% | -20.8% | -18.9% |
| 4/24/2024 | 0.7% | -5.8% | -5.4% |
| 2/6/2024 | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 14 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 3.8% | 9.0% |
| Median Negative | -8.0% | -7.6% | -9.6% |
| Max Positive | 12.2% | 20.1% | 28.0% |
| Max Negative | -18.4% | -20.8% | -26.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10242025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
