Ford Motor (F)
Market Price (11/22/2025): $12.845 | Market Cap: $51.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Ford Motor (F)
Market Price (11/22/2025): $12.845Market Cap: $51.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.7%, FCF Yield is 23% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 239% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, and Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 13%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.7%, FCF Yield is 23% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 12 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, and Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -2.8%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -50% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 239% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
F Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between July 31, 2025, and November 22, 2025, Ford Motor (F) stock experienced an 18.8% movement, largely influenced by several key positive developments.
1. Ford Reported Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Financial Results. On October 23, 2025, Ford announced its Q3 2025 earnings, which significantly surpassed Wall Street's expectations. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.45, beating the consensus estimate of $0.38 by $0.07, and quarterly revenue of $50.53 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $43.08 billion. This strong performance, including a 9.4% year-over-year revenue increase, led to an 11.34% surge in Ford's stock price in after-hours trading following the announcement.
2. Reaffirmation of Full-Year Guidance Despite Production Disruptions. Despite two fires at its aluminum supplier Novelis in September and November 2025, Ford reaffirmed its full-year 2025 adjusted EBIT guidance of $6 billion to $6.5 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $2 billion to $3 billion. This demonstrated the company's resilience and ability to manage supply chain challenges, with operations at the Novelis Oswego plant resuming after the November fire.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| F Return | -4% | 137% | -42% | 16% | -13% | 35% | 79% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 10% | -3% | 11% | 9% | -0% | 36% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| F Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 30% | 33% | 25% | 30% | 35% | 35% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| F Max Drawdown | -56% | -3% | -46% | -9% | -17% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -5% | -15% | -12% | -5% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GM, PCAR, HOG, EMPD, SBLX. See F Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/21/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | F | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 157.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -57.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 134.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 809 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -86.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 665.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 394 days | 1480 days |
Compare to GM, PCAR, HOG, EMPD, SBLX
In The Past
Ford Motor's stock fell -61.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -61.2% loss requires a 157.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Ford Motor Earnings Notes | |||
| Triggers That Could Ignite the Next Rally In Ford Motor Stock | |||
| What Can Trigger Ford Motor Stock's Slide? | |||
| What Is Happening With Ford Motor Stock? | |||
| Time To Buy Ford Motor Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Ford Motor Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return | ||
| Ford Motor vs UnitedHealth: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Ford Motor vs General Motors: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Better Bet Than F Stock: Pay Less Than Ford Motor To Get More From OKE, CCL | |||
| Better Bet Than F Stock: Pay Less Than Ford Motor To Get More From CCL, NCLH | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| What Could Light a Fire Under Ford Motor Stock | November 8th, 2025 | ||
| 3 Forces That Could Shake Ford Motor Stock | November 7th, 2025 | ||
| Ford Motor Stock To $9? | October 28th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: QCOM, KDP, SMCI | Losers: ALB, NEM, F | October 28th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 25th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to F. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.7% | -4.7% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -7.7% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.6% | -3.6% | -7.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.5% | 4.5% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -4.7% | -4.7% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -7.7% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Ford Motor
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 52.6 |
| Rev LTM | 17,098 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,960 |
| FCF LTM | 189 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 262 |
| CFO LTM | 2,634 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,593 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -8.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -9.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 52.6 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 9.9 |
| P/E | 15.5 |
| P/CFO | 3.9 |
| Total Yield | 10.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| D/E | 1.9 |
| Net D/E | 1.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 40.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -23.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Blue | 140,627 | 130,782 | |||
| Ford Pro | 58,058 | 48,939 | |||
| Ford Credit | 10,290 | 8,978 | 10,073 | 11,203 | 12,260 |
| Ford Model e | 6,526 | 5,374 | |||
| Ford Next | 3 | 99 | 118 | 47 | 41 |
| Unallocated Amounts and Eliminations | -39,313 | -36,141 | |||
| Corporate Other | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Interest on Debt | 0 | 0 | |||
| Special Items | 0 | 0 | |||
| Adjustments | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Automotive | 126,150 | 115,894 | 143,599 | ||
| Total | 176,191 | 158,057 | 136,341 | 127,144 | 155,900 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Credit | 148,521 | 137,954 | 134,428 | 157,637 | 160,697 |
| Ford Blue | 58,990 | 56,023 | |||
| Unallocated Amounts and Eliminations | 49,002 | -1,527 | |||
| Ford Model e | 13,648 | 5,285 | |||
| Ford Pro | 2,942 | 2,177 | |||
| Ford Next | 207 | 392 | 3,325 | 3,459 | 1,034 |
| Corporate Other | 55,580 | 51,730 | 45,410 | 0 | |
| Interest on Debt | 0 | ||||
| Special Items | 0 | ||||
| Adjustments | -1,417 | -1,986 | -4,542 | ||
| Automotive | 68,969 | 62,741 | 101,348 | ||
| Total | 273,310 | 255,884 | 257,035 | 267,261 | 258,537 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | 12.2% | 5.8% | |
| 7/30/2025 | 1.8% | 3.1% | 9.2% |
| 5/5/2025 | 2.7% | 5.3% | 2.2% |
| 2/5/2025 | -7.5% | -7.8% | 2.1% |
| 10/28/2024 | -8.4% | -8.9% | -1.0% |
| 7/24/2024 | -18.4% | -20.8% | -18.9% |
| 4/24/2024 | 0.7% | -5.8% | -5.4% |
| 2/6/2024 | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 3.8% | 9.2% |
| Median Negative | -8.0% | -7.6% | -9.6% |
| Max Positive | 12.2% | 20.1% | 28.0% |
| Max Negative | -18.4% | -20.8% | -26.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10242025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2072024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
