Etsy (ETSY)
Market Price (12/14/2025): $53.73 | Market Cap: $5.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Etsy (ETSY)
Market Price (12/14/2025): $53.73Market Cap: $5.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -132% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.6% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -81%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -132% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ETSY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why Etsy's stock (ETSY) moved by 1.6% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 14, 2025: **1. End of "De Minimis" Exemption Affected Cross-Border Sales.** A presidential executive order eliminated the "de minimis" exemption for imported goods under $800, effective August 29, 2025, impacting cross-border sales for e-commerce platforms like Etsy. This change caused Etsy's stock to decline by over 8% on August 25, 2025. **2. Transfer of Stock Listing to NYSE Generated a Significant Pop.** Etsy announced on September 29, 2025, its intention to transfer its common stock listing from the Nasdaq Stock Market to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), with trading commencing on the NYSE on October 13, 2025. This news led to a substantial 15.8% surge in Etsy's shares on the day of the announcement. **3. Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings and CEO Transition Led to Volatility.** On October 29, 2025, Etsy reported better-than-expected Q3 2025 revenue of $678 million and GAAP earnings per share of $0.63, surpassing analyst estimates. However, the report also revealed a decline in active buyers and sellers, alongside an announcement that CEO Josh Silverman would step down at year-end, to be succeeded by Chief Growth Officer Kruti Patel Goyal. These combined factors resulted in an immediate 12% drop in the stock. **4. Positive Momentum from the Holiday Shopping Season Started Strong.** November 2025 marked a strong start to the holiday shopping season for Etsy, with average daily sales climbing 45.7% from October. This surge pushed total monthly orders to approximately 50.2 million. Categories like Bags & Purses and Home & Living experienced significant month-over-month growth, contributing to positive market sentiment towards the end of the period. **5. Continued Investment in AI-powered Tools and Seller Support.** Throughout the period, Etsy continued to roll out various updates and AI-powered tools aimed at streamlining seller workflows, enhancing buyer communication, and improving overall platform efficiency. These initiatives, including updated listing title guidance and a writing assistant for buyer messages, are part of Etsy's strategic focus on personalization and seller empowerment for sustained growth.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ETSY Return | 302% | 23% | -45% | -32% | -35% | 1% | 21% |
| Peers Return | 99% | 22% | -55% | 76% | 37% | 45% | 284% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ETSY Win Rate | 83% | 50% | 25% | 42% | 33% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 55% | 27% | 65% | 58% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ETSY Max Drawdown | -28% | -12% | -68% | -49% | -41% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -7% | -60% | -3% | -17% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, EBAY, SHOP, W, WSM. See ETSY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ETSY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -79.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 389.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 120 days |
Compare to AMZN, WMT, COST, EBAY, LULU
In The Past
Etsy's stock fell -79.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/24/2021. A -79.6% loss requires a 389.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ETSY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.9% | 17.9% | -1.6% |
| 09122025 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.6% | -8.6% | -12.5% |
| 12312024 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.9% | 1.8% | -22.9% |
| 01312024 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -15.8% | -28.7% |
| 05312023 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -24.2% | -26.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.9% | 17.9% | -1.6% |
| 09122025 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.6% | -8.6% | -12.5% |
| 12312024 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.9% | 1.8% | -22.9% |
| 01312024 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -15.8% | -28.7% |
| 05312023 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -24.2% | -26.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Etsy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 130.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 31.5 |
| Rev LTM | 10,583 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,575 |
| FCF LTM | 1,257 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,233 |
| CFO LTM | 1,632 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,365 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 31.5 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/EBIT | 15.9 |
| P/E | 27.0 |
| P/CFO | 20.6 |
| Total Yield | 2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 140.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 90.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -12.8% | -22.1% | -27.6% |
| 7/30/2025 | 2.8% | -7.2% | -9.7% |
| 4/30/2025 | -5.7% | -2.2% | 14.9% |
| 2/19/2025 | -10.1% | -7.3% | -21.9% |
| 10/30/2024 | 7.2% | 10.6% | 14.3% |
| 7/31/2024 | -7.6% | -18.1% | -14.8% |
| 5/1/2024 | -15.1% | -10.3% | -9.0% |
| 2/21/2024 | -8.4% | -7.9% | -11.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 10.7% | 8.5% | 13.9% |
| Median Negative | -8.0% | -7.9% | -14.3% |
| Max Positive | 16.2% | 24.7% | 60.5% |
| Max Negative | -15.1% | -22.1% | -27.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |