Etsy (ETSY)
Market Price (10/25/2025): $74.12 | Market Cap: $7.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Etsy (ETSY)
Market Price (10/25/2025): $74.12Market Cap: $7.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.6% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 47x |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 8.3% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 8.3% |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.6% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -47%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 18% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 47x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
ETSY Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ETSY Return | 302% | 23% | -45% | -32% | -35% | 40% | 59% |
| Peers Return | 45% | 20% | -25% | 42% | 36% | 5% | 166% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ETSY Win Rate | 83% | 50% | 25% | 42% | 33% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 57% | 38% | 72% | 63% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ETSY Max Drawdown | -28% | -12% | -68% | -49% | -41% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -11% | -35% | -4% | -14% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, COST, EBAY, LULU. See ETSY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ETSY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -79.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 389.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 120 days |
Compare to AMZN, WMT, COST, EBAY, LULU
In The Past
Etsy's stock fell -79.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/24/2021. A -79.6% loss requires a 389.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ETSY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -18.6% | -18.6% | -22.1% |
| 09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -6.2% |
| 09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.4% | -8.4% | -8.4% |
| 09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -6.1% |
| 09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 9.7% | 9.7% | -11.7% |
| 12312024 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.9% | 39.7% | -22.9% |
| 01312024 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -15.8% | -28.7% |
| 05312023 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -24.2% | -26.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -18.6% | -18.6% | -22.1% |
| 09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -6.2% |
| 09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.4% | -8.4% | -8.4% |
| 09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -6.1% |
| 09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 9.7% | 9.7% | -11.7% |
| 12312024 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.9% | 39.7% | -22.9% |
| 01312024 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -15.8% | -28.7% |
| 05312023 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.8% | -24.2% | -26.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Etsy
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 142.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 229.6 |
| Rev LTM | 143,070 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,439 |
| FCF LTM | 4,982 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,509 |
| CFO LTM | 7,960 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,168 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 229.6 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/EBIT | 22.7 |
| P/E | 36.7 |
| P/CFO | 18.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 24.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 90.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 16.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2025 | 2.8% | -7.2% | -9.7% |
| 4/30/2025 | -5.7% | -2.2% | 14.9% |
| 2/19/2025 | -10.1% | -7.3% | -21.9% |
| 10/30/2024 | 7.2% | 10.6% | 14.3% |
| 7/31/2024 | -7.6% | -18.1% | -14.8% |
| 5/1/2024 | -15.1% | -10.3% | -9.0% |
| 2/21/2024 | -8.4% | -7.9% | -11.7% |
| 11/1/2023 | 1.6% | 5.5% | 35.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 10.7% | 8.5% | 13.9% |
| Median Negative | -8.0% | -7.9% | -14.3% |
| Max Positive | 16.2% | 24.7% | 60.5% |
| Max Negative | -15.7% | -19.3% | -23.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11042021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daniel Nicholas | CHIEF PRODUCT OFFICER | 9032025 | Sell | 51.62 | 1,500 | 77,430 | 1,635,476 | Form |
| 1 | BALLARD CHARLES ANDREW | 8262025 | Sell | 62.42 | 2,400 | 149,808 | 361,786 | Form | |
| 2 | Blow Marla J | 8192025 | Sell | 67.13 | 257 | 17,252 | 650,087 | Form | |
| 3 | Colburn Richard Edward III | Chief Technology Officer | 8142025 | Sell | 63.57 | 1,397 | 88,807 | 157,971 | Form |
| 4 | PATEL GOYAL KRUTI | President&Chief Growth Officer | 8082025 | Sell | 58.86 | 2,243 | 132,023 | 3,368,558 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |