Estee Lauder Companies (EL)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $107.44 | Market Cap: $38.9 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Personal Care Products
Estee Lauder Companies (EL)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $107.44Market Cap: $38.9 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Personal Care Products
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -95% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 106x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% Key risksEL key risks include [1] its substantial exposure to the struggling travel retail sector and slowing consumer demand in key Asia-Pacific markets. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Luxury Consumer Goods, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -95% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 106x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% |
| Key risksEL key risks include [1] its substantial exposure to the struggling travel retail sector and slowing consumer demand in key Asia-Pacific markets. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Estee Lauder Companies (EL) stock has gained about 30% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2027 Earnings Beat and Raised Full-Year Outlook. Estee Lauder reported robust results for its fiscal first quarter ended September 30, 2026, on November 2, 2026, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The company's adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.72 surpassed the consensus estimate of $0.51 by 41.2%. Net sales increased 7% year-over-year to $3.72 billion, also beating the consensus estimate of $3.65 billion. Following these strong results, management raised its full-year fiscal 2027 guidance for organic net sales growth to 4%-5.5% (up from 3%-5%) and adjusted EPS to a range of $3.20-$3.45 (up from $3.10-$3.35).
2. Continued Success of Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP) Leading to Margin Expansion. The effective execution of the company's "Profit Recovery and Growth Plan" (PRGP) was a core reason for improved profitability. In fiscal Q1 2027, the reported gross margin expanded by 230 basis points to 75.7% from 73.4% in the prior year, with the adjusted gross margin expanding by 240 basis points. This expansion was driven by net benefits from cost and operational efficiencies enabled by the PRGP, sales leverage, and strategic pricing actions. The adjusted operating margin also saw a significant expansion of 480 basis points, reaching 12.1% from 7.3%.
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Estee Lauder Companies (EL) stock has gained about 30% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2027 Earnings Beat and Raised Full-Year Outlook. Estee Lauder reported robust results for its fiscal first quarter ended September 30, 2026, on November 2, 2026, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. The company's adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.72 surpassed the consensus estimate of $0.51 by 41.2%. Net sales increased 7% year-over-year to $3.72 billion, also beating the consensus estimate of $3.65 billion. Following these strong results, management raised its full-year fiscal 2027 guidance for organic net sales growth to 4%-5.5% (up from 3%-5%) and adjusted EPS to a range of $3.20-$3.45 (up from $3.10-$3.35).
2. Continued Success of Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP) Leading to Margin Expansion. The effective execution of the company's "Profit Recovery and Growth Plan" (PRGP) was a core reason for improved profitability. In fiscal Q1 2027, the reported gross margin expanded by 230 basis points to 75.7% from 73.4% in the prior year, with the adjusted gross margin expanding by 240 basis points. This expansion was driven by net benefits from cost and operational efficiencies enabled by the PRGP, sales leverage, and strategic pricing actions. The adjusted operating margin also saw a significant expansion of 480 basis points, reaching 12.1% from 7.3%.
3. Positive Fiscal Q4 2026 Results and Initial Optimistic Fiscal 2027 Outlook. The momentum for the stock began with the release of fiscal Q4 2026 results and the initial fiscal 2027 outlook on August 19, 2026. Estee Lauder reported a return to sales growth and improved profitability for fiscal year 2026, with organic sales growth accelerating to 5% in Q4 2026. At that time, the company affirmed its initial fiscal 2027 outlook for organic net sales growth of 3% to 5% and raised its outlook on adjusted operating margin to 12.7% to 13.5%, setting a positive trajectory for the stock in the specified period.
4. Strong Performance in Key Product Categories and Geographic Regions. Growth was driven by standout performances in specific segments and markets. The fragrance category continued its robust performance, with organic sales increasing by 20% in fiscal Q1 2027. Geographically, the Asia/Pacific region led growth during the quarter. Notably, mainland China demonstrated accelerating momentum, marking its seventh consecutive quarter of prestige beauty share gains, and travel retail returned to positive growth in June and July 2026.
5. Numerous Analyst Upgrades and Increased Price Targets. A series of positive revisions from financial analysts contributed to investor confidence. Between August and November 2026, several firms raised their price targets and maintained or upgraded their ratings on Estee Lauder stock. For instance, on November 4, 2026, Barclays raised its price target from $108.00 to $126.00, maintaining an "overweight" rating. Similarly, Argus raised its price objective from $100.00 to $125.00 with a "buy" rating on August 28, 2026, and Citigroup increased its price target from $115.00 to $121.00 with a "buy" rating.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.7% change in EL stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 25.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 83.62 | 107.65 | 28.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,833 | 15,283 | 3.0% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.0 | 2.6 | 25.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 363 | 363 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EL | 28.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.9% | 32.9% |
| Sector (XLP) | 7.3% | 36.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 41.4% change in EL stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 36.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 76.16 | 107.65 | 41.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,671 | 15,283 | 4.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.9 | 2.6 | 36.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 362 | 363 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 41.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EL | 41.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.3% | 30.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 9.0% | 32.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.9% change in EL stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 95.33 | 107.65 | 12.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,446 | 15,283 | 5.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.4 | 2.6 | 7.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 361 | 363 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EL | 12.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.4% | 36.1% |
| Sector (XLP) | 22.1% | 29.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.7% change in EL stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -61.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 121.96 | 107.65 | -11.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15,910 | 15,283 | -3.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.3% | 2.4% | -61.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 43.4 | 106.3 | 144.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 358 | 363 | -1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EL | -11.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 40.2% |
| Sector (XLP) | 44.9% | 33.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EL Return | 40% | -32% | -40% | -48% | 42% | 4% | -56% |
| Peers Return | 36% | 14% | 52% | -13% | -17% | 25% | 114% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EL Win Rate | 75% | 33% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 55% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 52% | 60% | 44% | 33% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EL Max Drawdown | -13% | -49% | -62% | -60% | -41% | -44% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -31% | -27% | -38% | -43% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: COTY, PG, ELF, ULTA. See EL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -15.7% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 431 days | 18 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -32.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 143 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 145 days | 6 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Estee Lauder Companies's stock fell -29.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 41.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | EL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 69 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -32.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 143 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 144 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -54.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 238 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Estee Lauder Companies's stock fell -29.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 41.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Estee Lauder Companies (EL)
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is a prominent global player in the beauty industry, specializing in the manufacturing, marketing, and sale of prestige skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products. It operates a vast portfolio of highly recognized and influential brands that cater to a wide array of consumer preferences across these four core categories.
The company's extensive brand family includes flagship names like Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C, La Mer, Aveda, Jo Malone London, and The Ordinary, in addition to licensed brands such as Tommy Hilfiger and Michael Kors. Its product offerings are comprehensive, ranging from advanced moisturizers, serums, cleansers, and foundations to lipsticks, mascaras, luxury perfumes, colognes, shampoos, conditioners, and various beauty tools and accessories.
Estée Lauder primarily targets a global customer base seeking high-quality, premium beauty solutions. Its products are distributed through a robust multi-channel strategy, including upscale department stores, specialty-multi retailers, luxury perfumeries, salons and spas, freestanding brand stores, and a significant online presence via its own brand websites, authorized retailer sites, and third-party e-commerce platforms. The company also maintains a strong footprint in travel retail, reaching international customers through airport and duty-free shops.
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1. The LVMH of beauty products.
2. The Procter & Gamble for premium skincare and makeup brands.
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- Skin Care Products: Estee Lauder offers a comprehensive range of skin care products including moisturizers, serums, cleansers, masks, and sun care.
- Makeup Products: The company provides various makeup items such as lipsticks, foundations, mascaras, eyeshadows, and nail polishes, along with related tools.
- Fragrance Products: Estee Lauder manufactures and sells a diverse collection of fragrances, including eau de parfums, colognes, lotions, and perfumed soaps and candles.
- Hair Care Products: The company offers hair care solutions like shampoos, conditioners, styling products, treatments, and hair color products.
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The Estee Lauder Companies (EL) primarily sells its products to other businesses, which then retail them to individual consumers. Its major customers are the large retail companies that operate department stores, specialty-multi retailers, and online platforms.
Based on its described distribution channels, key customers include:
- Macy's Inc. (Symbol: M) - Operates department stores such as Macy's and Bloomingdale's, which are significant outlets for Estee Lauder's prestige beauty brands.
- Nordstrom Inc. (Symbol: JWN) - A leading fashion specialty retailer that also serves as a major distribution partner for Estee Lauder's products in its department stores.
- Ulta Beauty Inc. (Symbol: ULTA) - A prominent specialty-multi beauty retailer that offers a wide range of beauty products, including many of Estee Lauder's brands, through its physical stores and e-commerce platform.
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Stéphane de La Faverie, President and Chief Executive Officer
Stéphane de La Faverie assumed the role of President and Chief Executive Officer of The Estée Lauder Companies in January 2025. He also serves as a member of the company's Board of Directors. With over 25 years of experience in prestige beauty, he joined ELC in 2011. Prior to his current role, he was Executive Group President, overseeing a portfolio of brands including Estée Lauder, AERIN Beauty, Jo Malone London, Le Labo, KILIAN PARIS, Editions de Parfums Frederic Malle, Darphin Paris, LAB Series, DECIEM (The Ordinary, NIOD, and Avestan), Too Faced, Smashbox, and GLAMGLOW. From 2020-2022, he served as Group President, The Estée Lauder Companies, and Global Brand President, Estée Lauder and AERIN Beauty. Before joining ELC, Mr. de La Faverie began his career with Lancôme Global in Paris and held roles with the Luxury Products Group, North America, overseeing Lancôme, Giorgio Armani, Ralph Lauren, and Biotherm beauty brands.
Akhil Shrivastava, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Akhil Shrivastava was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of The Estée Lauder Companies, effective November 1, 2024. He is responsible for the company's Global Finance, Accounting, Tax, Treasury, Investor Relations, and New Business Development organizations. Mr. Shrivastava joined ELC in 2015 and has held various senior finance positions within the company, including Senior Vice President, Corporate Controller, and Senior Vice President, Treasurer. Before his tenure at Estée Lauder, he spent 18 years at Procter & Gamble, serving in various finance and leadership roles across Asia, North America, and global businesses, including Finance Director for Gillette North America. He holds a Master's Degree in Finance and Control from Delhi University.
Jane Hertzmark Hudis, Executive Vice President, Chief Brand Officer
Jane Hertzmark Hudis serves as Executive Vice President, Chief Brand Officer at The Estée Lauder Companies. She has held an Executive Group President position at the company since 2020.
Rashida La Lande, Executive Vice President and General Counsel
Rashida La Lande is the Executive Vice President and General Counsel at The Estée Lauder Companies, where she oversees the global Legal organization. In this capacity, she acts as a strategic advisor to ELC's leadership and Board of Directors on global legal issues and is responsible for legal strategy, practices, and policies, as well as the company's Global Privacy Office and Global Security Team. Ms. La Lande joined ELC in August 2024.
Meridith Webster, Chief Communications and Public Affairs Officer
Meridith Webster is the Chief Communications and Public Affairs Officer at The Estée Lauder Companies, a position she assumed in 2021. In her role, she leads the company's communications and public affairs strategies globally, working to advance and protect its business interests and corporate reputation.
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Weak Demand in China and Asia Travel Retail
A primary risk for Estee Lauder is the persistent weakness in demand within the prestige beauty market in mainland China and the broader Asia travel retail sector. This softness has been a significant driver of declining sales and financial pressures in recent years, particularly affecting the company's crucial skincare category. The region has experienced weak consumer sentiment, and disruptions in travel retail have disproportionately impacted Estee Lauder's performance, leading to substantial earnings pressure.
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Cyclical Nature of Premium Products and Macroeconomic Headwinds
The company's portfolio of premium and luxury beauty products makes it particularly susceptible to global macroeconomic challenges, including inflation, economic downturns, and reduced consumer discretionary spending. Unlike more essential consumer staples, demand for prestige beauty items can be highly cyclical, meaning that in turbulent economic environments, consumers may scale back on such purchases. This inherent market risk is reflected in the stock's higher beta compared to other consumer staple businesses.
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Intense Competition and Evolving Consumer Preferences
Estee Lauder operates in a highly competitive beauty industry, facing pressure from both established global players and rapidly emerging indie brands. A key challenge lies in adapting to evolving consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics, and effectively leveraging digital engagement platforms. The company has acknowledged challenges in appealing to consumers under 40 and missing opportunities on social media platforms like TikTok, which play a pivotal role in the prestige beauty industry.
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The rapid proliferation and increasing market share of highly agile, digitally-native, and influencer-led beauty brands that leverage direct-to-consumer (DTC) models and social media for marketing and sales. These new entrants often circumvent the traditional retail and advertising channels, such as department stores and large-scale print/TV campaigns, where Estee Lauder's heritage brands have historically thrived. These brands can quickly capture specific market segments by offering perceived authenticity, niche specialization, and often more accessible price points, directly challenging the market dominance, customer loyalty, and traditional brand-building efficacy of established prestige beauty conglomerates like Estee Lauder. This shift represents a fundamental change in how successful brands are created, distributed, and connect with consumers, making traditional infrastructure less critical and potentially less effective for capturing emerging consumer segments.
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Skincare
The global skincare market size was valued at USD 122.11 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 227.13 billion by 2034, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.32% from 2026 to 2034. Another source estimates the global skincare market at USD 159.86 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 231.31 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 5.42%. The global skincare products market size was estimated at USD 155.84 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 202.77 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 3.1% from 2026 to 2033. Asia Pacific dominated the skincare market with a 51.46% market share in 2025, with its market valuation at USD 62.84 billion in 2025. The U.S. skincare market is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 30.42 billion by 2032.Makeup
The global makeup market size was valued at USD 45.95 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 81.55 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.72% during the forecast period. Another report states the global makeup market will grow from USD 44.97 billion in 2025 to USD 64.81 billion by 2031 at a 6.28% CAGR. Asia Pacific dominated the makeup market with a market share of 46.87% in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 22.65 billion in 2026. The U.S. makeup market is projected to reach an estimated value of USD 12.77 billion by 2032.Fragrance
The global fragrance market size was estimated at USD 58.89 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 89.41 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.5% from 2026 to 2033. Other estimates for the global perfume market include USD 53.04 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 87.17 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 5.73%, and USD 55.53 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 88.35 billion by 2033 with a CAGR of 5.3%. North America held the largest market share of 33.2% in 2025 in the global fragrance market. Europe dominated the global perfume market in 2024, securing the largest revenue share of 35.9%.Hair Care
The global hair care market size was valued at USD 119.1 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 219.7 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.9% from 2023 to 2030. Another source indicates the global hair care market size was valued at USD 84.55 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 112.27 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 3.20% during the forecast period (2023-2031). The global hair and scalp care market size was estimated at USD 88.20 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 150.45 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 7.0% from 2026 to 2033. Asia-Pacific was the largest revenue-generating market in 2022 for hair care and held the largest market share of 37.51% in 2025 for hair and scalp care. North America accounted for 20.1% of the global hair care market in 2022 and is expected to register the highest CAGR from 2023 to 2030.AI Analysis | Feedback
- Geographic Expansion and Focus on High-Growth Markets: The company is prioritizing expansion in emerging markets, such as Latin America and Japan, and strengthening its presence in key regions like Mainland China, which has shown consistent double-digit growth. This strategy aims to diversify its global footprint and tap into new consumer bases.
- Product Innovation and Strategic Brand Development: Estée Lauder is committed to launching new products, expanding existing successful franchises, and focusing on high-growth categories. This includes initiatives like the launch of the Balmain Beauty brand in fiscal 2025, the expansion of its luxury fragrance portfolio, and premium skincare innovations such as Clinique CX for China and the Re-Nutriv longevity expansion into eye products. Brands like La Mer and The Ordinary are also driving growth through innovation.
- Digital Acceleration and Channel Optimization: The company is enhancing its online and e-commerce presence by expanding its digital footprint on platforms like Amazon, Shopee, and TikTok. Additionally, it is strategically resetting its global travel retail business to return to growth.
- Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP) and Increased Consumer-Facing Investments: The ongoing Profit Recovery and Growth Plan, initiated in November 2023, is designed to restore sustainable sales growth and expand operating margins. This plan involves operational efficiencies that fund increased consumer-facing investments, boosting advertising spend, and optimizing marketing to enhance customer acquisition and strengthen brand equity.
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Share Repurchases
- Estée Lauder Companies made significant share repurchases, totaling approximately $2.31 billion in fiscal year 2022.
- Share repurchases decreased significantly in subsequent years, amounting to approximately $271 million in fiscal year 2023 and $35 million in fiscal year 2024 and fiscal year 2025, respectively.
- For the first half of fiscal year 2026 (ending December 31, 2025), share repurchases were approximately $66.84 million, with the company indicating that future repurchases should remain limited to fund restructuring, brand building, and debt reduction.
Outbound Investments
- In November 2022, Estée Lauder acquired the designer fashion house Tom Ford in a deal valued at $2.8 billion, a strategic move towards higher-margin luxury.
- The company completed its acquisition of DECIEM Beauty Group Inc. on May 31, 2024, paying an estimated $860 million in cash for the remaining interests, bringing the total investment to approximately $1.7 billion over three tranches since 2017.
- Estée Lauder has also made minority investments in various Chinese, Mexican, and Indian beauty labels to rebalance growth and embrace emerging markets.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $1.00 billion in fiscal year 2023 and decreased to $0.92 billion in fiscal year 2024.
- In fiscal year 2025, capital expenditures further decreased to $602 million, primarily due to the completion of payments related to a manufacturing facility in Japan during the prior year.
- For fiscal year 2026, capital expenditures are projected to be approximately 4% of anticipated sales, with a focus on optimizing investments and prioritizing consumer-facing initiatives, including enhancements to brick-and-mortar and online distribution channels, and expanding consumer reach.
Peer Outperformance in Personal Care Products
null| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EL | Estee Lauder Companies | -0.3% | 106.3x | 19.9% | 1.0% | -66.7% | — |
| PG | Procter & Gamble | 1.8% | 24.2x | 17.9% | 19.8% | 30.2% | +97pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail | 12 | 22.6% | 58.8% | 58.5% | WMT 171% · PSMT 128% · COST 119% |
| Tobacco | 6 | -27.2% | -3.6% | 41.4% | PM 169% · MO 152% |
| Food Retail | 6 | 12.4% | 64.4% | 37.5% | CASY 252% · SFM 114% · KR 83% |
| Food Distributors | 8 | 10.3% | 24.1% | 33.0% | CHEF 182% · USFD 177% · PFGC 126% |
| Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages | 13 | 12.6% | -4.6% | 11.9% | COKE 413% · COCO 367% · MNST 109% |
| Brewers | 3 | 7.4% | -20.8% | 6.9% | BUD 51% · TAP 7% · SAM -55% |
| Personal Care Products ← | 4 | 10.7% | 4.5% | -13.9% | ELF 251% · PG 30% · COTY -58% |
| Household Products | 19 | 23.6% | 6.1% | -18.1% | IPAR 61% · CL 43% · CHD 33% |
| Packaged Foods & Meats | 48 | -24.5% | -32.3% | -36.0% | CALM 130% · TR 43% · SJM 27% |
| Agricultural Products & Services | 11 | -8.9% | -9.6% | -40.2% | ADM 26% · BG 21% · INGR 14% |
| Distillers & Vintners | 5 | -26.9% | -56.2% | -75.4% | STZ -28% · BF-B -52% |
| Drug Retail | 3 | -67.4% | -82.5% | -95.5% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 109.19 |
| Mkt Cap | 27.6 |
| Rev LTM | 12,956 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,632 |
| FCF LTM | 1,149 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,030 |
| CFO LTM | 1,568 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,423 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 27.6 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 19.5 |
| P/EBIT | 18.2 |
| P/E | 24.2 |
| P/CFO | 19.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 15.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 26.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 7.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 15.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 16.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 22.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skin Care | 7,338 | 6,962 | 7,908 | 8,249 | 9,886 |
| Makeup | 4,276 | 4,205 | 4,470 | 4,532 | 4,667 |
| Fragrance | 2,779 | 2,491 | 2,487 | 2,451 | 2,508 |
| Hair Care | 565 | 565 | 629 | 652 | 631 |
| Other category net sales | 103 | 100 | 115 | ||
| Returns associated with restructuring and other activities | -12 | 3 | -1 | -27 | -4 |
| Other | 53 | 49 | |||
| Total | 15,049 | 14,326 | 15,608 | 15,910 | 17,737 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skin Care | 1,416 | 574 | 735 | 1,277 | 2,753 |
| Fragrance | 204 | -378 | 265 | 370 | 456 |
| Other category operating income | 57 | -13 | 53 | ||
| Hair Care | -4 | -41 | -52 | -36 | -28 |
| Makeup | -70 | -441 | 93 | -21 | 133 |
| Charges associated with restructuring and other activities | -823 | -486 | -124 | -85 | -144 |
| Other | 4 | 0 | |||
| Total | 780 | -785 | 970 | 1,509 | 3,170 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $107.65 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 39.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/17/1995 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $100.63 | $90.98 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 7.0% | 18.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 48.6% | 48.1% |
| Downside Capture | 92.94 | 147.67 |
| Upside Capture | 248.86 | 149.76 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 25.2% | 35.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.08 | 0.48 | 0.92 | 0.89 | 1.27 | 1.26 |
| Up Beta | 1.56 | 0.48 | -0.83 | 0.17 | 1.12 | 1.10 |
| Down Beta | -0.19 | -0.34 | -0.43 | 0.84 | 1.52 | 1.64 |
| Up Capture | 166% | 100% | 258% | 157% | 137% | 100% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 32 | 62 | 127 | 370 |
| Down Capture | -105% | 39% | 85% | 74% | 115% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 21 | 32 | 64 | 124 | 381 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EL | 17.6% | 48.1% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 22.7% | 15.7% | 1.09 | 29.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.41 | 36.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.6% | 28.7% | 0.11 | 21.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 37.7% | 21.2% | 1.40 | -19.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.0% | 14.2% | 0.55 | 30.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.8% | 43.3% | -0.42 | 35.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EL | -18.6% | 44.6% | -0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.7% | 14.0% | 0.33 | 39.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 49.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 14.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 6.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 42.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.9% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 27.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EL | 3.6% | 37.4% | 0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 8.5% | 15.0% | 0.42 | 44.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 53.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 10.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 15.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 44.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.3% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 17.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/5/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/2/2026 | -4.1% | ||
| 8/19/2026 | 16.3% | 24.4% | 11.8% |
| 5/1/2026 | 3.4% | 11.2% | 12.0% |
| 2/5/2026 | -19.2% | -11.9% | -22.2% |
| 10/30/2025 | 0.3% | -6.4% | -2.4% |
| 8/20/2025 | -3.7% | -0.1% | -1.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.8% | -1.2% | 12.2% |
| 2/4/2025 | -16.1% | -17.0% | -12.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 7.5% | 11.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.9% | -7.7% | -9.6% |
| Max Positive | 16.3% | 24.4% | 12.8% |
| Max Negative | -20.9% | -27.4% | -25.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/2/2026 | -4.1% | ||
| 8/19/2026 | 16.3% | 24.4% | 11.8% |
| 5/1/2026 | 3.4% | 11.2% | 12.0% |
| 2/5/2026 | -19.2% | -11.9% | -22.2% |
| 10/30/2025 | 0.3% | -6.4% | -2.4% |
| 8/20/2025 | -3.7% | -0.1% | -1.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.8% | -1.2% | 12.2% |
| 2/4/2025 | -16.1% | -17.0% | -12.7% |
| 10/31/2024 | -20.9% | -27.4% | -16.9% |
| 8/19/2024 | -2.2% | -1.3% | -6.6% |
| 5/1/2024 | -13.2% | -11.7% | -17.3% |
| 2/5/2024 | 12.0% | 6.9% | 10.3% |
| 11/1/2023 | -18.9% | -10.4% | -0.4% |
| 8/18/2023 | -3.3% | -7.0% | -4.5% |
| 5/3/2023 | -17.3% | -17.9% | -25.2% |
| 2/2/2023 | -4.4% | -7.7% | -9.6% |
| 11/2/2022 | -8.1% | 0.5% | 12.5% |
| 8/18/2022 | 1.8% | -4.0% | -13.2% |
| 5/3/2022 | -5.8% | -10.4% | -3.7% |
| 2/3/2022 | -5.0% | 0.3% | -10.3% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.1% | 7.5% | 0.2% |
| 8/19/2021 | 2.6% | 5.1% | 0.4% |
| 5/3/2021 | -7.9% | -3.3% | -2.9% |
| 2/5/2021 | 7.8% | 14.5% | 10.9% |
| 11/2/2020 | 1.9% | 8.6% | 12.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| # Negative | 16 | 15 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 7.5% | 11.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.9% | -7.7% | -9.6% |
| Max Positive | 16.3% | 24.4% | 12.8% |
| Max Negative | -20.9% | -27.4% | -25.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/02/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/19/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/18/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/02/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/01/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/19/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/18/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/27/2021 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/28/2020 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/06/2020 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/3/2026Latest: Q1 2027 Earnings Reported 11/2/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2027 Dividends | Reported | 0.35 | ||||||
| 2027 Diluted Weighted-Average Shares | Reported | 368.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2027 Net Cash Flows Provided by Operating Activities | Reported | 1.40 Bil | 1.45 Bil | 1.50 Bil | 7.4% | Raised | Guidance: 1.35 Bil for 2027 | |
| 2027 Net Sales Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 5.75% | 6.5% | ||||
| 2027 Organic Net Sales Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 4.75% | 5.5% | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 4.0% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Adjusted Operating Margin | Reported | 12.9% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 13.1% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Adjusted Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 33.0% | 33.5% | 34.0% | ||||
| 2027 Diluted EPS | Reported | 2.85 | 3.02 | 3.18 | ||||
| 2027 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 3.2 | 3.33 | 3.45 | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 3.23 for 2027 | |
| 2027 Adjusted Diluted EPS Growth | Reported | 28.0% | 33.0% | 38.0% | ||||
| 2027 Adjusted Constant Currency Diluted EPS | Reported | 3.16 | 3.29 | 3.41 | ||||
| 2027 Adjusted Constant Currency Diluted EPS Growth | Reported | 26.0% | 31.0% | 36.0% | ||||
| 2027 Capital Expenditures Percent of Projected Sales | Reported | 4.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.0% for 2027 | |||
Prior: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 8/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Net Cash Flows Provided by Operating Activities | Reported | 1.30 Bil | 1.35 Bil | 1.40 Bil | ||||
| 2027 Organic Net Sales Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.0% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Adjusted Operating Margin | Reported | 12.7% | 13.1% | 13.5% | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 12.75% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 3.1 | 3.23 | 3.35 | ||||
| 2027 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 0.04 | ||||||
Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 5/1/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Cash Flows Provided by Operating Activities | Reported | 1.40 Bil | 1.45 Bil | 1.50 Bil | 26.1% | Raised | Guidance: 1.15 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Organic Net Sales Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin | Reported | 10.7% | 10.85% | 11.0% | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 10.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 2.35 | 2.4 | 2.45 | 11.6% | Raised | Guidance: 2.15 for 2026 | |
| 2027 Net Sales Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | ||||
| 2027 Adjusted Operating Margin | Reported | 12.5% | 12.75% | 13.0% | ||||
Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Cash Flows Provided by Operating Activities | Reported | 1.10 Bil | 1.15 Bil | 1.20 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Organic Net Sales Growth | Reported | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 1.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin | Reported | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 2.05 | 2.15 | 2.25 | 7.5% | Raised | Guidance: 2 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 0.04 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/16/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fribourg, Paul J | Owned by Continental Grain Company | Sell | 9152026 | 98.17 | 58,000 | 5,693,963 | 40,967,085 | Form | |
| 2 | Fribourg, Paul J | Owned by Continental Grain Company | Sell | 9152026 | 96.78 | 45,000 | 4,355,100 | 45,999,534 | Form | |
| 3 | Barshefsky, Charlene | by a family trust | Sell | 9102026 | 98.82 | 3,775 | 373,046 | 5,036,908 | Form | |
| 4 | La, Lande Rashida | Exec VP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8312026 | 103.32 | 7,766 | Form | ||
| 5 | La, Lande Rashida | Exec VP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 99.55 | 5,564 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fribourg, Paul J | Owned by Continental Grain Company | Sell | 9152026 | 98.17 | 58,000 | 5,693,963 | 40,967,085 | Form | |
| 2 | Fribourg, Paul J | Owned by Continental Grain Company | Sell | 9152026 | 96.78 | 45,000 | 4,355,100 | 45,999,534 | Form | |
| 3 | Barshefsky, Charlene | by a family trust | Sell | 9102026 | 98.82 | 3,775 | 373,046 | 5,036,908 | Form | |
| 4 | La, Lande Rashida | Exec VP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8312026 | 103.32 | 7,766 | Form | ||
| 5 | La, Lande Rashida | Exec VP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 99.55 | 5,564 | Form | ||
| 6 | Lauder, Jane | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 94.38 | 17,840 | 1,683,739 | 5,546,052 | Form | |
| 7 | La, Lande Rashida | Exec VP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 12012025 | 94.45 | 1,604 | Form | ||
| 8 | Webster, Meridith | Exec VP GlobalComm/PubAffairs | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 87.84 | 5,430 | Form | ||
| 9 | Sternlicht, Barry S | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 91.83 | 3,972 | 364,749 | 3,196,786 | Form | |
| 10 | Leonard, A. Lauder 2013 Revocable Trust | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 89.70 | 2,786,040 | Form | |||
| 11 | Evelyn, H. Lauder 2012 Marital Trust Two | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 89.70 | 2,845,283 | Form | |||
| 12 | Lal, 2015 Elf Trust | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 89.70 | 5,670,000 | Form | |||
| 13 | Forester, Lynn | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 91.65 | 3,702 | 339,288 | 1,418,650 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 6, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continental Grain Co | $37.3 Mil | 10.2% | 4 | Hold | 13F |
| Independent Franchise Partners LLP | $475.7 Mil | 3.3% | 26 | TRIM -15.4% | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $11.9 Mil | 2.8% | 40 | ADD +9.9% | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $50.1 Mil | 1.1% | 33 | New | 13F |
| Amanah Holdings Trust | $7.9 Mil | 0.9% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Franchise Partners LLP | $475.7 Mil | 3.3% | 26 | TRIM -15.4% | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $50.1 Mil | 1.1% | 33 | New | 13F |
| Continental Grain Co | $37.3 Mil | 10.2% | 4 | Hold | 13F |
| Warther Private Wealth, LLC | $11.9 Mil | 2.8% | 40 | ADD +9.9% | 13F |
| Amanah Holdings Trust | $7.9 Mil | 0.9% | 20 | Hold | 13F |
EL Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive as the operational turnaround is confirmed by accelerating volume-led growth and significant margin expansion. Management raised its full-year 2027 outlook for sales and profitability. The key variable remains the pace of recovery toward historical peak margins, which the market is questioning despite strong current evidence.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Branded Consumer GoodsVolume of units sold × Average Selling Price (ASP) Gross margin management (pricing power vs. input costs) and operating leverage achieved through disciplined SG&A spending, particularly on advertising and promotion.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence points to a successful turnaround underway, with a clear path to significant earnings growth if historical profitability is recaptured.
- Operating margin expanded 480 basis points in the latest quarter.
- Management raised FY27 operating margin expansion guidance to 170-250 basis points.
- Organic sales growth accelerated to 6% in the latest quarter.
- The company is gaining share in China, US/China online, and European fragrance.
- Latest quarter's 7% reported sales growth was driven by 7% volume growth.
PRIMARY RISK
The market is pricing in a guided second-half 2027 slowdown, fearing strong 20% organic growth in the smaller fragrance segment is masking underlying weakness in the core skin care profit engine.
- Management guided for stronger growth in the first half of fiscal 2027 than the second.
- The Skin Care segment's fiscal 2026 revenue of $7,338 million remains below its previous peak.
- The Makeup segment recorded a $70 million operating loss in fiscal 2026.
- The company is mindful of challenges in key Western markets and global volatility.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Organic Net Sales Growth | 6% year-over-year for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 - Accelerating | Organic sales growth has shown consistent and significant acceleration over the past three quarters, moving from 2% to 6%. Management noted on the latest earnings call that this was driven by broad-based growth across all geographic regions and strength in three of four product categories. |
| Operating Margin Expansion | 480 basis points of expansion in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 - Accelerating | The company has delivered substantial operating margin expansion for at least three consecutive quarters. The latest quarter's 480 basis point improvement was attributed to sales leverage and disciplined cost management, including benefits from the company's Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP). |
| Innovation as a Percentage of Sales | 23% (Fiscal Year 2026) | Market rewards The company is targeting an increase of 200-250 basis points for fiscal 2027, with a goal of at least 23%.. This metric indicates the proportion of revenue generated from new products, reflecting the success of the company's R&D and marketing efforts in bringing fresh, relevant products to market. |
| Online Sales as a Percentage of Reported Sales | 34% (Fiscal Year 2026) | This KPI measures the company's penetration in the high-growth online channel, including sales from its own brand websites and third-party platforms. It reflects the company's adaptation to modern consumer shopping habits. |
Turnaround Momentum vs. Guided Slowdown
BULL VIEW
Bulls see accelerating 6% organic growth and 480 basis points of recent margin expansion as proof the recovery plan is delivering tangible results, justifying the raised full-year outlook.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating organic growth and margin expansion offset the market's focus on a guided second-half slowdown, which followed the latest earnings report?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence, a full-year guidance raise for both sales (to 4-5.5%) and operating margin, favors the view that underlying business strength is improving.
BEAR VIEW
Bears focus on management's guidance for a second-half slowdown, fearing it signals a fragile recovery that is overly reliant on the hot fragrance category, not just tougher comparisons.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
12/3/2026 | Peer Results Signal Market Slowdown Watch: Peer commentary on prestige beauty demand, consumer spending trends, and performance in key channels and geographies. |
12/3/2026 | Peer Ulta Beauty Earnings Watch: Peer Ulta Beauty is scheduled to report quarterly earnings. |
1/20/2027 | Peer P&G Earnings Watch: Peer Procter & Gamble is scheduled to report quarterly earnings. |
2/2/2027 | Peer e.l.f. Beauty Earnings Watch: Peer e.l.f. Beauty is scheduled to report quarterly earnings. |
2/3/2027 | Margin Recovery Execution Stalls Watch: Reported gross and operating margins versus guidance, progress on PRGP savings, and any revisions to the margin outlook. |
2/3/2027 | Next Quarterly Earnings Report Watch: Company is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
2/3/2027 | Peer Coty Earnings Watch: Peer Coty is scheduled to report quarterly earnings. |
No set date | Travel Retail Headwinds Re-emerge Watch: News on China travel policies, duty-free retailer performance, or management commentary on Asia travel retail trends. |
This Wednesday | China Capital Market Event Watch: Company to host a capital market experience to discuss its Beauty Reimagined strategy, particularly in China. |
August 4 | Accelerated FY27 Results Watch: Company plans to report its fiscal 2027 year-end results, reflecting an accelerated timeline. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-02 | Negative Market Reaction to Earnings Details: Despite a strong report and raised guidance, the stock had a negative two-day reaction of -4.0% around the November 2, 2026 earnings call. | -3.5% $109.23 -> $105.39 |
2026-11-02 | Q1 FY27 Earnings and Guidance Raise Details: On November 2, 2026, the company reported Q1 FY27 results with 6.7% latest-quarter revenue growth and raised its full-year guidance for organic sales, operating margin, and adjusted EPS. | -3.5% $109.23 -> $105.39 |
2026-10-05 | Forest Essentials Acquisition Completed Details: On October 5, 2026, the company completed the acquisition of the remaining equity interest in the owner of the Forest Essentials brand, an India-based beauty brand. | +1.5% $91.97 -> $93.36 |
2026-08-19 | Fiscal 2026 Earnings Report Details: On August 19, 2026, the company reported fiscal 2026 results, with organic sales rising 3%. The stock had a positive two-day reaction of 14.0%. | +14.1% $83.98 -> $95.82 |
2026-05-21 | Puig Merger Talks End Details: On May 21, 2026, the company and Puig confirmed they ended discussions regarding a potential business combination. Press reports noted shares jumped about 10% on the news. | +12.9% $77.64 -> $87.68 |
Executive Leadership Changes Announced Details: In early September 2026, the company announced expanded roles for its Chief Technology & Transformation Officer and a new President, Digital & Online, Americas and Global Amazon Lead. | - |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: EL trades at roughly 45% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (4.6x the market). A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
PG - Procter & Gamble
Defensive ScaleProcter & Gamble offers exposure to the broader consumer staples market with a much larger, more diversified revenue base and a focus on mass-market channels, providing a more defensive profile.
ELF - e.l.f. Beauty
High-Growth Disruptore.l.f. Beauty provides exposure to the trend-driven, value-focused beauty consumer with much faster revenue growth of 31.2% year-over-year, contrasting with Estee Lauder's prestige and luxury positioning.
A portfolio of prestige beauty brands in a turnaround, leveraging its high-growth Fragrance business to fuel recovery while working to restore its core Skin Care profit engine.
Estée Lauder is a collection of high-end beauty brands navigating a recovery from recent downturns, particularly in its historically dominant Skin Care segment and in Asia travel retail. The company's 'Beauty Reimagined' and 'PRGP' initiatives are driving a rebound, focusing on innovation, cost discipline, and expansion into high-growth channels. The current story is one of accelerating, more diversified growth, with Fragrance outperforming and Makeup stabilizing, coupled with significant margin expansion.
Sustained market share gains in China and the U.S., continued double-digit growth in the Fragrance segment, and a return to margin expansion in the Skin Care segment.
A stall in the Fragrance growth story, failure to turn around the Makeup and Hair Care segments to profitability, or renewed weakness in the China or travel retail channels.
Short-term stock reactions to individual earnings reports that overlook the underlying multi-quarter trend of accelerating retail sales and expanding margins.
Repricing Catalyst
The company's successful execution of its profit recovery plan (PRGP), leading to accelerating revenue growth and significant margin expansion, which prompted management to raise its full-year guidance for fiscal 2027.
Skin Care
$7.4B TTM (49% of Total) · 31% MarginWhat It Is
Sells skin care products like serums, moisturizers, and eye creams under brands including La Mer, Estée Lauder, Clinique, The Ordinary, and Dr.Jart+ to consumers through a global network of retailers and direct channels.
Who Pays & How
Retailers (department stores, travel retail, specialty stores) and direct consumers pay for products. They are drawn by the brands' reputation for quality, efficacy, and innovation, particularly in the luxury (La Mer) and prestige (Estée Lauder) tiers.
Competition
Makeup
$4.3B TTM (28% of Total) · -1% MarginWhat It Is
Sells makeup products such as lipstick, foundation, and eyeshadow under brands including M·A·C, TOM FORD, Estée Lauder, and Bobbi Brown Cosmetics to consumers via retailers and direct channels.
Who Pays & How
Retailers and direct consumers purchase makeup products. They are motivated by brand desirability, product innovation (e.g., new lip and face sub-category products), and targeted marketing campaigns.
Competition
Fragrance
$2.9B TTM (19% of Total) · 19% MarginWhat It Is
Sells luxury and prestige fragrances under brands like Le Labo, TOM FORD, Jo Malone London, and KILIAN PARIS to consumers through various retail and direct channels.
Who Pays & How
Retailers and direct consumers purchase fragrances. Demand is driven by the appeal of luxury and artisanal scents, new product innovation, and the success of hero products, supported by targeted consumer outreach.
Competition
Hair Care
$564M TTM (4% of Total) · 1% MarginWhat It Is
Sells hair care products through brands like Aveda, Bumble and bumble, and The Ordinary to consumers via salons, spas, retailers, and direct channels.
Who Pays & How
Salons, retailers, and direct consumers purchase hair care products based on brand reputation, product efficacy, and innovation.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Personal Care Products Resources |
| Cosmetics Design |
| Global Cosmetics Industry |
| Happi - Personal Care |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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