eBay (EBAY)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $105.6 | Market Cap: $47.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
eBay (EBAY)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $105.6Market Cap: $47.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.5% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.3 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.7%, Dist 3Y High is -3.7% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.1x Key risksEBAY key risks include [1] maintaining user trust by combating the fraud and counterfeit products inherent to its open marketplace model. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.5% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.7%, Dist 3Y High is -3.7% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.1x |
| Key risksEBAY key risks include [1] maintaining user trust by combating the fraud and counterfeit products inherent to its open marketplace model. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. eBay reported strong financial results for both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, consistently beating analyst expectations.
The company's non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 2025 reached $1.41, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.24 by 13.71%. This was followed by an even stronger Q1 2026, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.66, exceeding expectations of $1.52 by 9.21% or $1.58 by $0.08. Revenue also outpaced forecasts, with Q4 2025 revenue at $3.0 billion, up 15% year-over-year, and Q1 2026 revenue at $3.1 billion, a 19% increase.
2. Robust Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth and successful strategic initiatives, including AI adoption, fueled investor confidence.
eBay accelerated its Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth, reaching $21.2 billion in Q4 2025, up 10% year-over-year, and $22.2 billion in Q1 2026, an 18% increase. The company highlighted strong performance in its "Focus Categories," particularly collectibles and motors, driven by strategic priorities such as C2C (consumer-to-consumer) and recommerce. Furthermore, eBay's integration of AI tools, like "Magical Listing" which cut listing time by over 25% and raised new listing creation by over 50%, contributed to broad-based momentum and positive market sentiment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.8% change in EBAY stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 90.92 | 105.26 | 15.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,714 | 11,604 | 8.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.3% | 17.6% | -13.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.0 | 23.1 | 21.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 456 | 448 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.8% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EBAY | 15.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 36.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.4% | 36.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 30.3% change in EBAY stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 36.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 80.75 | 105.26 | 30.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,714 | 11,604 | 8.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.3% | 17.6% | -13.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.9 | 23.1 | 36.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 456 | 448 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 30.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EBAY | 30.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 39.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.2% | 36.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 56.6% change in EBAY stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 42.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.21 | 105.26 | 56.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,283 | 11,604 | 12.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.2% | 17.6% | -8.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.3 | 23.1 | 42.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 478 | 448 | 6.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 56.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EBAY | 56.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 24.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 20.7% | 22.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 139.6% change in EBAY stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 170.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 43.93 | 105.26 | 139.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,822 | 11,604 | 18.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.5% | 17.6% | 170.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.9 | 23.1 | -37.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 537 | 448 | 19.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 139.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| EBAY | 139.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 33.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 63.7% | 31.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EBAY Return | 34% | -36% | 8% | 45% | 43% | 26% | 138% |
| Peers Return | 8% | -33% | 29% | 18% | 6% | 15% | 33% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EBAY Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 37% | 58% | 55% | 48% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 40% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EBAY Max Drawdown | 0% | -44% | -7% | -7% | -3% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -46% | -17% | -15% | -18% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, MELI, ETSY, TGT. See EBAY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EBAY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 124 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -44.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 713 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 105 days |
In The Past
eBay's stock fell -13.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 15.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | EBAY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 124 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -44.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 713 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 163 days | 62 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -21.6% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 68 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 235.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 703 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
eBay's stock fell -13.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 15.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About eBay (EBAY)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Airbnb for physical goods, connecting individual buyers and sellers globally.
- Amazon's marketplace, but specializing in used items, collectibles, and auctions.
- A global, structured Craigslist, complete with integrated payments and shipping.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Online Marketplace Platform: eBay provides a global digital platform, including its website and mobile apps, that connects buyers and sellers to list, discover, and purchase a wide variety of goods.
- Payment Facilitation Services: The company offers integrated services that enable users to securely process payments for transactions conducted on its marketplace platform.
AI Analysis | Feedback
eBay (EBAY) operates a marketplace platform that connects buyers and sellers. Its primary customers, from whom it generates revenue, are the sellers who utilize its platform to list and sell items. Given the nature of a broad, open marketplace, eBay does not have a few specific "major customer companies" in the traditional B2B sense. Instead, its customer base is highly fragmented and consists of millions of sellers, ranging from individuals to large enterprises.
Therefore, eBay primarily serves a wide array of individuals and businesses as sellers. The categories of customers that eBay serves, based on their selling activity and scale, include:
- Individual/Casual Sellers: These are individuals who use eBay to sell personal items, collectibles, used goods, or items they no longer need, often on an irregular basis or as a hobby.
- Small to Medium-sized Business (SMB) Sellers: This category includes entrepreneurs, small businesses, and professional merchants who leverage eBay as a significant sales channel. They often operate dedicated eBay Stores, selling new or specialized products to a wider audience.
- Larger Merchant/Liquidator Sellers: These are larger enterprises, distributors, or liquidators who utilize eBay for specific sales strategies, such as inventory clearance, selling overstock items, or reaching niche markets, often in high volumes.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)
- Adyen N.V. (ADYEN.AS)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here is the management team for eBay:Jamie Iannone, President and Chief Executive Officer
Jamie Iannone was appointed CEO of eBay in April 2020. He has over 20 years of experience in digital and omnichannel platforms. Prior to rejoining eBay, he served as COO of Walmart eCommerce and CEO of SamsClub.com, where he led digital transformation initiatives and operational oversight. He also held the position of Executive Vice President of Digital Products at Barnes & Noble, Inc. Iannone had an earlier tenure at eBay from 2001 to 2009, holding various leadership roles in areas such as global search and buyer experience. He holds a Bachelor of Science from Princeton University and an MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business.
Peggy Alford, Chief Financial Officer
Peggy Alford assumed the role of eBay's Chief Financial Officer effective May 12, 2025. She brings over 20 years of experience leading finance, operations, and global teams in the technology sector. Previously, Alford served as Executive Vice President, Global Sales of PayPal Holdings, Inc. from March 2020 to January 2024. She also held roles as Senior Vice President, Core Markets at PayPal and Chief Financial Officer and Head of Operations at the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative. Earlier in her career, Alford held various finance and business leadership positions at both PayPal and eBay. She is a CPA and began her career in auditing and consulting. Alford currently serves on the board of directors of Meta Platforms, Inc.
Jordan Sweetnam, Chief Commercial Officer
Jordan Sweetnam leads eBay's newly combined Global Markets and Product organization as Chief Commercial Officer, a role he assumed as part of executive leadership changes announced in April 2025.
Mazen Rawashdeh, Chief Technology Officer
Mazen Rawashdeh leads eBay's unified engineering organization as Chief Technology Officer, a position he took on following executive leadership changes announced in April 2025.
Stefanie Jay, Chief Business and Strategy Officer
Stefanie Jay was appointed as eBay's Chief Business and Strategy Officer in May 2021. In this role, she leads an organization that integrates Strategy, Business Operations, Analytics, and Communications.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to eBay's business:
-
Intense Competition
eBay operates in a highly competitive e-commerce market, facing significant challenges from larger, diversified platforms like Amazon, which offers extensive product selections, faster shipping, and comprehensive fulfillment services, often overshadowing eBay's market share. The competitive landscape also includes specialized marketplaces (e.g., StockX, Poshmark for specific categories) and traditional retailers that have expanded their online presence. This intense competition is exacerbated by low barriers to entry in certain e-commerce segments and evolving consumer preferences, such as a decreasing brand loyalty where price, convenience, and quality often dictate purchasing decisions over platform allegiance.
-
Regulatory and Compliance Challenges
eBay faces increasing regulatory scrutiny and compliance obligations, particularly in international markets. As a "very large online platform" under the EU's Digital Services Act (DSA), eBay has explicit statutory duties to implement risk-mitigation measures for illicit products. Recent enforcement actions by French authorities (DGCCRF) have cited eBay for the availability of prohibited items, setting a precedent for potential significant financial penalties, which could amount to up to 10% of global revenue for serious violations. Furthermore, the General Product Safety Regulation (GPSR) in the EU and Northern Ireland, effective December 2024, places primary liability on marketplaces like eBay to ensure product compliance, introducing further financial and operational risks related to non-compliance.
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Fraud, Counterfeit Goods, and Cybersecurity Risks
Maintaining a secure and trustworthy environment is critical for eBay's marketplace model. The platform is continuously exposed to various forms of fraudulent activities, including the sale of stolen or counterfeit items, payment fraud, bid manipulation, phishing scams, and feedback extortion. These issues can significantly damage eBay's brand reputation, erode consumer and seller confidence, and increase operational costs and loss rates. Additionally, as a prominent online platform, eBay remains a target for cyberattacks and security breaches. Such incidents can lead to the compromise of sensitive user data, disruption of operations, and a substantial loss of user trust, as demonstrated by a past data breach in 2014 that resulted in a revenue decline.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The following clear emerging threats have been identified for eBay:
- The rise of social commerce platforms: Platforms such as TikTok Shop and Instagram Shopping are increasingly integrating direct product sales into their social media experiences. These platforms leverage short-form video, live streaming, and influencer marketing to create an entertainment-driven and highly engaging shopping journey. This model presents a fundamental shift in how consumers discover and purchase items, challenging eBay's traditional search-and-browse, destination-site marketplace approach by capturing consumer attention and e-commerce spending through a different paradigm of product discovery and transaction.
- The proliferation of specialized, authenticated marketplaces: For high-value and niche categories (e.g., luxury goods, collectible sneakers, trading cards, vintage items), there is a growing trend towards highly specialized online marketplaces. Platforms like StockX, GOAT, and The RealReal offer enhanced authentication services, tailored user experiences, and specific escrow or verification processes. These specialized platforms address key trust and authenticity concerns for specific product types, potentially drawing away significant transaction volume and sellers from eBay's broader, generalist marketplace, particularly in categories where eBay has historically been strong.
AI Analysis | Feedback
eBay Inc. operates marketplace platforms that connect buyers and sellers globally. The addressable markets for its main products and services, primarily its online marketplace, can be identified within the broader e-commerce market and specifically the online marketplace segment.
The global e-commerce market was estimated at USD 25.93 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 83.26 trillion by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.9% from 2024 to 2030.
More specifically, the Top 100 global online marketplaces are projected to reach a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of USD 3.832 trillion by the end of 2024.
In the U.S. region, total e-commerce sales reached a record high of USD 1.1 trillion in 2023 and are forecast to rise to USD 1.7 trillion by 2028.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for eBay (EBAY) over the next 2-3 years:1. Growth in Strategic Focus Categories, Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C), and Recommerce Initiatives: eBay continues to prioritize and invest in specific categories, its consumer-to-consumer marketplace, and the recommerce segment (pre-owned and refurbished goods). These areas have been significant drivers of Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth in 2025 and are expected to sustain this momentum into 2026.
2. Expansion of Advertising Revenue: The company has demonstrated effective monetization strategies, with its first-party advertising products showing strong growth. Advertising revenue has been a notable contributor to overall revenue, with significant year-over-year increases in late 2025.
3. Development of New Growth Vectors: Emerging areas such as "eBay Live," the interactive live-stream shopping experience, and the vehicles category are showing promising results and are expected to contribute to strategic priorities in 2026. eBay Live, for example, has experienced substantial year-over-year growth and expanded into new markets.
4. Integration of AI Technologies: eBay is leveraging AI to enhance the user experience and operational efficiency through innovations like AI-powered card scanning and agentic search. These technological advancements are aimed at improving customer satisfaction and engagement, which can indirectly drive revenue growth.
5. Strategic Acquisitions, such as Depop: The acquisition of Depop for approximately $1.2 billion is a strategic move to strengthen eBay's C2C offerings and expand its presence in the circular fashion segment, particularly targeting a younger demographic. This acquisition is anticipated to contribute to total FX-neutral GMV growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- eBay completed a multi-year $8.20 billion buyback program in February 2026.
- In Q4 2025, eBay repurchased $625 million of its common stock.
- In December 2024, eBay's Board of Directors authorized an additional $3.0 billion under its stock repurchase program. In February 2026, an incremental $2.0 billion was authorized under the stock repurchase program.
Outbound Investments
- eBay completed the acquisition of Caramel, an end-to-end online automotive transaction solution provider, in February 2025, after signing a definitive agreement in January 2025.
- eBay announced the acquisition of Depop, a leading C2C fashion marketplace, for approximately $1.2 billion in cash, expected to close in Q2 2026.
- eBay Ventures, established in 2022, invests in disruptive companies revolutionizing the commerce landscape, with a focus on early-stage investments in areas such as marketplaces, e-commerce enablers, and the future of commerce, including AI.
Capital Expenditures
- eBay's capital expenditures averaged $454 million for the fiscal years ending December 2020 to 2024.
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 were $525 million.
- Expected capital expenditures are $549.9 million for 2026 and $558.8 million for 2027.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| eBay Stock 5-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 11% | 04/07/2026 | |
| eBay Earnings Notes | 12/28/2026 | |
| eBay Stock Shares $40 Bil Success With Investors | 12/18/2025 | |
| ETSY Looks Smarter Buy Than eBay Stock | 10/29/2025 | |
| Can eBay Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Strong and Rising: EBAY May Have More Upside | 10/16/2025 | |
| EBAY: Quality Momentum Stock Trading Below Its Peak | 10/15/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Should eBay Go For GameStop’s Offer? | 05/04/2026 | |
| The One Metric That Complicates eBay’s Rally | 04/17/2026 | |
| Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 04/17/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 04/17/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: MU, EBAY, TPL | Losers: NEM, ALB, TSLA | 12/29/2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to EBAY.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04242026 | MGM | MGM Resorts International | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% |
| 04242026 | WEN | Wendy's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -2.5% | -2.5% | -5.3% |
| 04102026 | WHR | Whirlpool | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -0.8% | -0.8% | -4.8% |
| 04022026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | -1.2% |
| 10102025 | EBAY | eBay | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 8.5% | 17.7% | -10.0% |
| 06302022 | EBAY | eBay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 9.6% | -11.2% |
| 10312018 | EBAY | eBay | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 30.7% | 22.8% | -10.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 129.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 75.3 |
| Rev LTM | 66,836 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,159 |
| FCF LTM | 2,261 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,598 |
| CFO LTM | 9,339 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,954 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 75.3 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 24.8 |
| P/EBIT | 21.7 |
| P/E | 27.7 |
| P/CFO | 14.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 41.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 95.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 9.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 14.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 12.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 16.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $105.26 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 47.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/24/1998 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $95.21 | $90.10 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 10.6% | 16.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 40.0% | 37.7% |
| Downside Capture | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| Upside Capture | 116.62 | 91.55 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 34.1% | 24.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.77 | 0.78 | 0.94 | 1.14 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| Up Beta | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.33 | 0.48 |
| Down Beta | 4.66 | 0.79 | 0.67 | 1.19 | 1.22 | 0.72 |
| Up Capture | 108% | 99% | 130% | 146% | 88% | 75% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 142 | 406 |
| Down Capture | 122% | 59% | 115% | 136% | 70% | 91% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 18 | 26 | 51 | 109 | 344 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EBAY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBAY | 55.9% | 37.8% | 1.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 18.2% | 18.7% | 0.76 | 22.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 27.8% | 12.5% | 1.73 | 24.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.6% | 27.2% | 1.23 | 7.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.1% | 18.0% | 2.16 | -1.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.4% | 0.53 | 9.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.3% | 42.2% | -0.34 | 14.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EBAY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBAY | 13.0% | 33.0% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.7% | 23.8% | 0.24 | 46.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 47.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 17.9% | 0.92 | 11.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.0% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 7.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 39.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.9% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 19.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with EBAY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBAY | 17.1% | 31.1% | 0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 22.0% | 0.53 | 48.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 48.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 7.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 12.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 34.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 11.3% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | -0.3% | ||
| 2/18/2026 | 3.1% | 3.8% | 10.8% |
| 10/29/2025 | -15.9% | -18.6% | -16.6% |
| 7/30/2025 | 18.3% | 19.3% | 19.6% |
| 2/26/2025 | -8.2% | -3.7% | -2.9% |
| 10/30/2024 | -8.2% | -2.5% | 1.5% |
| 7/31/2024 | 1.1% | -0.9% | 5.4% |
| 5/1/2024 | -3.3% | -2.7% | 6.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 6 | 11 |
| # Negative | 14 | 15 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -7.1% | -3.7% | -8.9% |
| Max Positive | 18.3% | 19.3% | 19.6% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -18.6% | -16.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | 2.97 Bil | 3.00 Bil | 3.03 Bil | -0.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 3.02 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 FX-Neutral Y/Y Growth | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | -35.7% | -5.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 14.0% for Q1 2026 |
| Q2 2026 Gross Merchandise Volume | 21.30 Bil | 21.50 Bil | 21.70 Bil | -0.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 21.70 Bil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Diluted GAAP EPS | 1.09 | 1.11 | 1.14 | -4.7% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.17 for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Diluted Non-GAAP EPS | 1.46 | 1.49 | 1.51 | -4.8% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.56 for Q1 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 3.00 Bil | 3.02 Bil | 3.05 Bil | 5.8% | Raised | Guidance: 2.86 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 FX-Neutral Y/Y Growth | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 22.2% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 9.0% for Q4 2025 |
| Q1 2026 Gross Merchandise Volume | 21.50 Bil | 21.70 Bil | 21.90 Bil | 4.8% | Raised | Guidance: 20.70 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Diluted GAAP EPS | 1.14 | 1.17 | 1.2 | 18.8% | Raised | Guidance: 0.98 for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Diluted Non-GAAP EPS | 1.53 | 1.56 | 1.59 | 16.8% | Raised | Guidance: 1.33 for Q4 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iannone, Jamie | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 109.54 | 19,641 | 2,151,510 | 31,911,049 | Form |
| 2 | Iannone, Jamie | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 103.26 | 21,000 | 2,168,540 | 32,110,398 | Form |
| 3 | Sweetnam, Jordan Douglas Bradley | SVP, Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 103.25 | 33,441 | 3,452,772 | 3,214,885 | Form |
| 4 | Sweetnam, Jordan Douglas Bradley | SVP, Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 100.36 | 12,113 | 1,215,681 | 3,094,652 | Form |
| 5 | Iannone, Jamie | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 4082026 | 96.85 | 21,000 | 2,033,838 | 32,120,403 | Form |
EBAY Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The score reflects a balanced but cautious stance. eBay is demonstrating solid execution in its niche-focused strategy, which is driving impressive growth in specific categories and high-margin advertising. However, this is set against a backdrop of a highly contested moat, significant structural threats from social commerce, and red flags from insider selling and weak forward GAAP guidance. The resulting risk/reward skew is unfavorable, making it a hold rather than an active buy.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type F: 'Transition / Profit Pivot'eBay fits the 'Transition' archetype as it's a mature, former high-flyer that experienced a period of stagnation post-PayPal spinoff. It is now executing a clear pivot away from being a generalist marketplace towards re-accelerating growth and profitability by focusing on high-value niches ('Focus Categories') and a high-margin advertising business.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The investment thesis is centered on eBay's successful strategic pivot to 'focus categories' (e.g., collectibles, luxury goods) and the rapid scaling of its high-margin advertising services. This combination is driving a re-acceleration in top-line growth and creating a positive mix shift towards more profitable revenue streams, which is not fully reflected in its current valuation.
- Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) Growth accelerated to +14% FX-Neutral in Q1 2026, significantly outpacing the broader e-commerce market.
- High-margin advertising revenue grew 28% FX-Neutral in Q1 2026 and now represents 2.6% of GMV, up from a lower base.
- GMV in 'Focus Categories' grew 24% YoY in Q1 2026, demonstrating strong execution in its targeted, high-value niches.
- The number of 'Enthusiast Buyers' remains stable at 16 million, forming a resilient and high-spending user base.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk to the thesis is the structural threat of disintermediation by social commerce platforms, particularly TikTok Shop. These platforms are rapidly collapsing the discovery-to-purchase funnel, shifting user behavior away from traditional search-based marketplaces like eBay and capturing significant GMV in key discretionary categories.
- TikTok Shop's global GMV is projected to potentially reach $87 billion to $112 billion in 2026, which would significantly exceed eBay's annualized GMV of ~$88.8 billion.
- Generative AI search tools (e.g., Google AI Overviews) also pose a long-term threat by potentially aggregating listings from multiple sites, turning eBay into a data source rather than a primary destination, eroding its network effect and pricing power.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) Growth (FX-Neutral) | Sustain >8% YoY | This is the primary indicator of marketplace health. Falling below the guided Q2 floor of 8% would signal the re-acceleration thesis is breaking. |
| Advertising Revenue as % of GMV | Trending towards 3.0% | This measures the success of the high-margin growth driver. Stagnation would indicate a limit to this profit-mixing opportunity. |
| GAAP vs. Non-GAAP EPS Guidance | Convergence of the two metrics | The current wide gap between GAAP guidance and Non-GAAP consensus for Q2 is a red flag. A continued or widening gap points to persistent operational issues or costs that are being adjusted out, questioning earnings quality. |
Niche Re-acceleration vs. Structural Disintermediation
BULL VIEW
The 14% FX-Neutral GMV growth and 28% Ads revenue growth in Q1 prove the niche-focused strategy is working, creating a more profitable, defensible business model.
CORE TENSION
Can eBay's successful pivot to high-growth 'Focus Categories' and Ads outrun the structural threat of market share loss to more integrated social commerce platforms like TikTok Shop?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Bears are winning. The weak Q2 GAAP EPS guidance ($1.09-$1.14 vs. $1.44 consensus) and heavy executive insider selling ($18.4M) override the positive Q1 GMV momentum.
BEAR VIEW
TikTok Shop's projected GMV (~$87B-$112B) in 2026 will eclipse eBay's (~$89B), signaling a fundamental shift in user behavior that makes eBay's search-based model obsolete.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late July 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: GAAP EPS guidance vs. the $1.09-$1.14 range. Any further cuts would be a major red flag, confirming margin pressure. |
Next 1-3 Months | GameStop Takeover Bid Developments Watch: Official board response to the unsolicited offer. Watch for announcements of a formal review, rejection, or initiation of a proxy fight by GameStop. |
Late October 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings & FY Guidance Watch: Full-year 2026 GMV growth forecast. A number holding above 7.5% would be a win; a cut would validate the bear thesis on competition. |
Next 6 Months | EU Digital Services Act (DSA) Enforcement Update Watch: Announcement of a formal investigation or 'non-compliance proceeding' by the European Commission against eBay regarding marketplace practices. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
10/29/2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Details: Reported FX-Neutral GMV growth of +8% YoY, establishing a stable growth trend. However, the stock reacted negatively to guidance or other factors. | Plummeted -15.9% $98.85 -> $83.15 |
1/30/2026 | Executive Insider Selling Details: A Senior Vice President sold ~77% of his shares. This was part of a broader $18.4M insider selling wave by multiple top executives over the prior three months. | Rose significantly by 2.8% $90.91 -> $93.46 |
2/14/2026 | Layoffs Announced Details: eBay announced layoffs affecting approximately 800 employees as part of a strategic pivot, including the closure of its San Francisco office and shutting down its Web3 team. | Fell notably by -3.0% $82.10 -> $79.68 |
2/18/2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Details: Reported Q4 GMV growth of 8% FX-Neutral and revenue of $3.0 billion, beating estimates and continuing momentum from the previous quarter. | Rose significantly by 3.1% $81.90 -> $84.46 |
4/29/2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Weak Q2 Guidance Details: Despite beating Q1 estimates with GMV up 14% FX-Neutral, stock was flat as company guided Q2 GAAP EPS to $1.09-$1.14, far below $1.44 consensus. | Muted (-0.3%) $103.79 -> $103.48 |
5/4/2026 | Unsolicited Takeover Bid Details: GameStop made a $56 billion unsolicited offer to acquire eBay, creating significant corporate uncertainty. | Flat (0.6%) $103.48 -> $104.07 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Volatility is spiking, reflecting high near-term uncertainty. The Bearish sentiment, contested moat, and medium visibility warrant a minimal 'watchlist' position until the forward guidance improves.
Diversification Alternatives
DECK
SECTORDeckers possesses a superior growth engine (HOKA brand) with clear market share gains. Its risks are related to fashion cycles, not the structural displacement threatening eBay's model.
LULU
SECTORLululemon has a powerful, high-margin brand with significant pricing power. Its risks are primarily executional and competitive, rather than the existential platform risk facing eBay.
eBay is transitioning from a generalist, low-growth marketplace into a higher-growth operator focused on specific, non-new 'focus categories' (like collectibles and luxury) and consumer-to-consumer (C2C) transactions, which now represent the majority of its business volume.
Filter all news through the lens of GMV acceleration in 'focus categories' and the growth of high-margin advertising revenue.
Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) growth accelerating faster than overall e-commerce market growth; Advertising revenue growth above 20% YoY; Named partnerships or acquisitions in collectibles or luxury goods verticals (e.g., trading cards, handbags).
Deceleration in GMV growth back to low single digits; Stagnation or decline in active buyer count; Significant fee reductions to compete with Amazon or Walmart Marketplace; A roll-back of the 'managed payments' system.
General e-commerce market share reports (eBay's focus is on specific niches, not the entire market); Short-term fluctuations in non-focus categories; Announcements of minor new site features that are not related to core transaction or advertising technology.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the accelerating growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), which grew 14% FX-Neutral in Q1 2026, driven by strategic focus on non-new, in-season goods and collectibles. This is coupled with the rapid expansion of its high-margin advertising business, which grew 28% FX-Neutral and now represents 2.6% of GMV.
Marketplace Transaction Fees
$10.0B TTM (81.6% of Total) · 29.4% MarginWhat It Is
Transaction fees (Final Value Fees), payment processing fees via its managed payments system, and seller store subscription fees.
Who Pays & How
Millions of individual and business sellers pay a percentage of their total sale price (including shipping) to access eBay's global base of buyers and utilize its integrated listing, payment, and shipping platform.
Competition
Seller Advertising & Other Services
$2.2B TTM (18.4% of Total) · 29.4% MarginWhat It Is
Promoted Listings, allowing sellers to pay for better visibility in search results. Other revenues include various marketing services.
Who Pays & How
Sellers pay to have their items featured more prominently, increasing the likelihood of a sale. They pay because increased visibility in a crowded marketplace directly correlates to higher sales velocity.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
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