Tearsheet

Brinker International (EAT)


Market Price (12/9/2025): $142.41 | Market Cap: $6.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Brinker International (EAT)


Market Price (12/9/2025): $142.41
Market Cap: $6.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%, FCF Yield is 8.3%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
 
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), and Supply Chain Digitization.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.7%, FCF Yield is 8.3%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), and Supply Chain Digitization.
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EAT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 9, 2025, Brinker International (EAT) stock experienced a significant negative movement, with shares down approximately 6.7% in premarket action on October 29, 2025, largely due to a disappointing full-year outlook.

1. Disappointing Full-Year Revenue Guidance: Brinker International's forecast for its fiscal 2025 full-year revenue, projected to be in the range of $5.60 billion to $5.70 billion, fell below the consensus analyst estimate of $5.72 billion.

2. Lower-Than-Expected Non-GAAP EPS Guidance: The company's guidance for non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal 2025, set between $9.90 and $10.50, also missed the consensus analyst estimate of $10.39.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EAT Return36%-35%-13%35%206%8%243%
Peers Return2%18%-6%20%3%-5%32%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EAT Win Rate67%42%42%58%83%30% 
Peers Win Rate58%55%38%52%50%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EAT Max Drawdown-82%-41%-40%-9%-12%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-66%-5%-23%-8%-25%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DRI, BLMN, TXRH, CAKE, DIN. See EAT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/8/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEATS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-71.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven253.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven816 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-83.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven500.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven167 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven65.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven279 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-88.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven789.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1389 days1480 days

Compare to BJRI, CBRL, BLMN, DIN, BDL


In The Past

Brinker International's stock fell -71.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -71.7% loss requires a 253.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Brinker International (EAT)

Better Bets than Brinker International (EAT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EAT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.9%12.9%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.6%-3.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.0%5.0%-1.6%
EAT_11302021_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11302021EATBrinker InternationalDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-12.3%-3.3%-36.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.9%12.9%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.6%-3.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.8%6.8%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.0%5.0%-1.6%
EAT_11302021_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11302021EATBrinker InternationalDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-12.3%-3.3%-36.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Brinker International

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EATDRIBLMNTXRHCAKEDINMedian
NameBrinker .Darden R.Bloomin .Texas Ro.Cheeseca.Dine Bra. 
Mkt Price142.31179.897.00165.0546.8234.4994.56
Mkt Cap6.421.00.611.02.20.54.3
Rev LTM5,59412,3643,9535,8343,7118664,774
Op Inc LTM6071,469135517250137383
FCF LTM4701,06810034115888249
FCF 3Y Avg26494211129110286188
CFO LTM7371,768277747320114529
CFO 3Y Avg4841,590339648259116412

Growth & Margins

EATDRIBLMNTXRHCAKEDINMedian
NameBrinker .Darden R.Bloomin .Texas Ro.Cheeseca.Dine Bra. 
Rev Chg LTM23.2%8.3%7.7%14.4%4.9%6.5%8.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.2%8.2%-2.9%14.4%5.2%-2.1%6.7%
Rev Chg Q18.5%10.4%2.1%12.8%4.8%10.8%10.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.9%2.4%0.5%2.9%1.1%2.5%2.4%
Op Mgn LTM10.9%11.9%3.4%8.9%6.7%15.8%9.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg7.6%11.8%5.6%8.6%5.7%19.8%8.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.6%-0.0%-0.5%-0.4%0.1%-2.0%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM13.2%14.3%7.0%12.8%8.6%13.1%13.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.8%13.8%8.5%12.6%7.2%13.9%11.2%
FCF/Rev LTM8.4%8.6%2.5%5.8%4.3%10.1%7.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.2%8.1%2.8%5.6%2.8%10.3%5.4%

Valuation

EATDRIBLMNTXRHCAKEDINMedian
NameBrinker .Darden R.Bloomin .Texas Ro.Cheeseca.Dine Bra. 
Mkt Cap6.421.00.611.02.20.54.3
P/S1.02.10.21.90.70.40.8
P/EBIT9.918.29.221.313.62.911.7
P/E12.823.1-10.625.215.810.314.3
P/CFO7.714.42.214.87.93.17.8
Total Yield7.8%6.9%0.1%4.8%8.4%18.5%7.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.6%9.6%0.8%2.1%8.8%2.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.4%4.5%9.4%3.0%5.0%18.9%6.2%
D/E0.30.23.60.10.84.60.6
Net D/E0.30.23.50.10.84.10.5

Returns

EATDRIBLMNTXRHCAKEDINMedian
NameBrinker .Darden R.Bloomin .Texas Ro.Cheeseca.Dine Bra. 
1M Rtn38.6%1.0%4.9%0.4%-0.8%38.5%2.9%
3M Rtn-9.1%-14.0%1.2%-1.1%-21.7%48.3%-5.1%
6M Rtn-18.0%-16.9%-14.2%-14.6%-19.6%37.9%-15.7%
12M Rtn9.6%9.2%-42.6%-14.5%-4.3%15.0%2.5%
3Y Rtn303.7%39.3%-62.4%77.2%53.6%-41.3%46.4%
1M Excs Rtn37.2%-0.5%7.5%1.2%-1.6%39.6%4.4%
3M Excs Rtn-13.7%-19.5%-3.8%-6.6%-25.5%45.4%-10.1%
6M Excs Rtn-32.0%-30.9%-28.2%-28.6%-33.6%23.9%-29.7%
12M Excs Rtn-2.1%-4.2%-55.2%-28.4%-19.1%-4.7%-11.9%
3Y Excs Rtn261.3%-31.6%-131.2%6.0%-21.5%-113.3%-26.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Chili's3,9193,6463,3803,0602,732
Maggiano's496487424278347
Corporate000  
Total4,4154,1333,8043,3383,078


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Chili's329222241312167
Maggiano's585441613
Corporate-157-132-122  
Other   -119-117
Total23014416019963


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Chili's2,1582,0802,1171,9121,967
Maggiano's259244224223228
Corporate176163144  
Other   140160
Total2,5932,4872,4842,2752,356


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,833,767
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202510.9%
Average Daily Volume1,851,462
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.15
Basic Shares Quantity44,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares13.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-7.5%-15.8%22.1%
8/13/20251.6%-0.7%2.6%
4/29/2025-14.8%-19.9%2.7%
1/29/202516.3%21.6%0.6%
10/30/20247.5%13.2%34.7%
8/14/2024-10.7%-5.3%-1.6%
4/30/20247.9%15.8%38.0%
1/31/20245.2%9.5%13.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121214
# Negative10108
Median Positive6.3%8.3%12.7%
Median Negative-7.4%-8.8%-11.2%
Max Positive29.8%25.1%47.2%
Max Negative-14.8%-19.9%-22.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/24/2025
6302025815202510-K 6/25/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/26/2025
12312024129202510-Q 12/25/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/25/2024
6302024821202410-K 6/26/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/27/2024
12312023131202410-Q 12/27/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/27/2023
6302023823202310-K 6/28/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/29/2023
12312022201202310-Q 12/28/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/28/2022
6302022826202210-K 6/29/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/30/2022
12312021202202210-Q 12/29/2021