Tearsheet

Brinker International (EAT)


Market Price (11/24/2025): $135.24 | Market Cap: $6.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Brinker International (EAT)


Market Price (11/24/2025): $135.24
Market Cap: $6.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 7.8%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
 
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), and Supply Chain Digitization.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 7.8%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), and Supply Chain Digitization.
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EAT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points highlighting why Brinker International (EAT) stock moved by -14.4% between July 31, 2025, and November 24, 2025: **1. Disappointing Fiscal 2026 Sales Guidance.** Despite reporting strong first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings and revenue that surpassed analyst expectations, Brinker International's reiterated full fiscal year 2026 sales guidance of $5.6 billion to $5.7 billion fell below Wall Street's consensus estimate of $5.72 billion. This outlook, suggesting slower revenue growth than anticipated, likely contributed to investor disappointment and a decline in the stock price. **2. Continued Underperformance of Maggiano's Brand.** While Chili's, Brinker's flagship brand, consistently delivered strong comparable sales and traffic growth, the company's other major brand, Maggiano's Little Italy, continued to experience declines in comparable restaurant sales and guest traffic. This sustained weakness in a significant segment weighed on the company's overall performance and investor sentiment. **3. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Adjustments.** Following the company's fiscal 2026 guidance, some financial analysts adjusted their outlook and price targets for Brinker International. For instance, Barclays lowered its price target for the stock from $145.00 to $135.00, reflecting concerns over the company's future growth trajectory. Such adjustments from analysts can influence market perception and contribute to stock depreciation. **4. Moderation in Chili's Sales Growth Expectations.** Although Chili's continued its impressive performance with double-digit comparable sales growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, management indicated that this growth was expected to normalize to a mid-single-digit range for the remainder of the fiscal year. While still positive, this anticipated moderation after an extended period of strong gains may have led investors to temper their future growth expectations for the brand. **5. Broader Industry Headwinds and Margin Pressures.** Despite operational improvements and strong gross margins, Brinker International, along with the broader casual dining sector, continued to face challenges such as rising labor costs and evolving consumer preferences. These persistent industry-wide headwinds and potential margin compression concerns likely contributed to investor caution and the stock's downward movement.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EAT Return36%-35%-13%35%206%2%225%
Peers Return-11%17%-15%10%-24%-14%-37%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%12%104%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EAT Win Rate67%42%42%58%83%30% 
Peers Win Rate48%53%38%50%42%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EAT Max Drawdown-82%-41%-40%-9%-12%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-72%-10%-26%-16%-35%-32% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BJRI, CBRL, BLMN, DIN, BDL. See EAT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/21/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEATS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-71.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven253.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven816 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-83.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven500.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven167 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven65.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven279 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-88.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven789.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1389 days1480 days

Compare to BJRI, CBRL, BLMN, DIN, BDL


In The Past

Brinker International's stock fell -71.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -71.7% loss requires a 253.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Brinker International (EAT)

Better Bets than Brinker International (EAT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EAT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.6%-3.6%-7.8%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.5%4.5%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-4.7%-4.7%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.2%-5.2%-7.7%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%
EAT_11302021_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11302021EATBrinker InternationalDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-12.3%-3.3%-36.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.6%-3.6%-7.8%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.5%4.5%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-4.7%-4.7%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.2%-5.2%-7.7%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%
EAT_11302021_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11302021EATBrinker InternationalDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-12.3%-3.3%-36.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Brinker International

Financials

EATBJRICBRLBLMNDINBDLMedian
NameBrinker .BJ's Res.Cracker .Bloomin .Dine Bra.Flanigan. 
Mkt Price134.9635.9827.096.3528.4129.9929.20
Mkt Cap6.00.80.60.50.40.10.6
Rev LTM5,5941,3883,4843,9538662022,436
Op Inc LTM60747751351378105
FCF LTM470496010088274
FCF 3Y Avg264187511186-180
CFO LTM7371242192771149171
CFO 3Y Avg48410621333911614164

Growth & Margins

EATBJRICBRLBLMNDINBDLMedian
NameBrinker .BJ's Res.Cracker .Bloomin .Dine Bra.Flanigan. 
Rev Chg LTM23.2%3.9%0.4%7.7%6.5%8.8%7.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg13.2%4.2%2.2%-2.9%-2.1%10.0%3.2%
Rev Chg Q18.5%1.4%-2.9%2.1%10.8%6.2%4.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.9%0.3%-0.8%0.5%2.5%1.5%1.0%
Op Mgn LTM10.9%3.4%2.2%3.4%15.8%4.0%3.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg7.6%2.4%2.7%5.6%19.8%4.2%4.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.6%0.1%-0.0%-0.5%-2.0%0.3%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM13.2%8.9%6.3%7.0%13.1%4.2%8.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.8%7.8%6.1%8.5%13.9%7.5%8.1%
FCF/Rev LTM8.4%3.5%1.7%2.5%10.1%1.2%3.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.2%1.3%2.2%2.8%10.3%-0.8%2.5%

Valuation

EATBJRICBRLBLMNDINBDLMedian
NameBrinker .BJ's Res.Cracker .Bloomin .Dine Bra.Flanigan. 
Mkt Cap6.00.80.60.50.40.10.6
P/S1.10.60.20.10.50.30.4
P/EBIT10.525.710.48.13.36.69.2
P/E13.625.513.0-9.411.912.913.0
P/CFO8.26.42.81.93.66.55.0
Total Yield7.4%3.9%11.5%0.2%16.1%7.8%7.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%3.8%10.9%7.7%0.0%1.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.4%2.4%4.9%9.4%18.9%-2.0%6.1%
D/E0.30.62.04.14.00.91.4
Net D/E0.30.61.93.93.60.51.2

Returns

EATBJRICBRLBLMNDINBDLMedian
NameBrinker .BJ's Res.Cracker .Bloomin .Dine Bra.Flanigan. 
1M Rtn6.0%9.1%-25.3%-20.4%2.5%-5.8%-1.7%
3M Rtn-10.3%2.5%-49.9%-13.8%29.7%-3.3%-6.8%
6M Rtn-12.7%-15.2%-51.7%-14.0%28.0%15.5%-13.3%
12M Rtn7.4%1.8%-42.9%-48.2%-6.8%22.8%-2.5%
3Y Rtn290.1%12.8%-73.6%-67.7%-54.2%11.6%-21.3%
1M Excs Rtn8.8%12.1%-24.3%-15.0%3.7%-1.2%1.2%
3M Excs Rtn-13.7%4.4%-52.3%-13.7%28.9%-4.2%-8.9%
6M Excs Rtn-26.5%-29.0%-65.5%-27.8%14.2%1.8%-27.1%
12M Excs Rtn-1.1%-6.4%-53.0%-57.2%-16.3%12.9%-11.3%
3Y Excs Rtn233.0%-56.5%-140.3%-135.8%-120.8%-54.3%-88.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Chili's3,9193,6463,3803,0602,732
Maggiano's496487424278347
Corporate000  
Total4,4154,1333,8043,3383,078


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Chili's329222241312167
Maggiano's585441613
Corporate-157-132-122  
Other   -119-117
Total23014416019963


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Chili's2,1582,0802,1171,9121,967
Maggiano's259244224223228
Corporate176163144  
Other   140160
Total2,5932,4872,4842,2752,356


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,258,277
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025-10.4%
Average Daily Volume1,811,955
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.90
Basic Shares Quantity44,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares11.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-7.5%-15.8% 
8/13/20251.6%-0.7%2.6%
4/29/2025-14.8%-19.9%2.7%
1/29/202516.3%21.6%0.6%
10/30/20247.5%13.2%34.7%
8/14/2024-10.7%-5.3%-1.6%
4/30/20247.9%15.8%38.0%
1/31/20245.2%9.5%13.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121213
# Negative10109
Median Positive6.3%8.3%11.6%
Median Negative-7.4%-8.8%-11.2%
Max Positive29.8%25.1%47.2%
Max Negative-14.8%-19.9%-22.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/24/2025
6302025815202510-K 6/25/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/26/2025
12312024129202510-Q 12/25/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/25/2024
6302024821202410-K 6/26/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/27/2024
12312023131202410-Q 12/27/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/27/2023
6302023823202310-K 6/28/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/29/2023
12312022201202310-Q 12/28/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/28/2022
6302022826202210-K 6/29/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/30/2022
12312021202202210-Q 12/29/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Ranade Prashant 9082025Sell159.6451181,5761,670,952Form
1Hochman KevinPres. & CEO8282025Sell157.8244,0006,944,08033,594,670Form
2Felix George SSVP, Chief Marketing Officer8272025Sell159.1911,7691,873,5073,756,247Form
3Ranade Prashant 8272025Sell154.061,882289,9411,652,910Form
4DePinto Joseph Michael 6092025Sell170.3610,0001,703,60016,916,237Form