Duke Energy (DUK)
Market Price (12/2/2025): $120.715 | Market Cap: $93.9 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Electric Utilities
Duke Energy (DUK)
Market Price (12/2/2025): $120.715Market Cap: $93.9 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Electric Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -5.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 17% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -5.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DUK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Duke Energy's stock movement during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 2, 2025:
1. Reduced Rate Hike Approval in South Carolina. Duke Energy Carolinas proposed a significantly reduced rate hike, with the approved annual revenue increase of $74.2 million being about half of the initially sought $150.5 million. While this benefits customers, a smaller-than-expected revenue increase could be viewed negatively by investors as it impacts future earnings potential.
2. Expanded Capital Plan and Future Financing Needs. Duke Energy unveiled an expanded five-year capital plan ranging from $95 billion to $105 billion, an increase from its current $87 billion plan. The company anticipates financing 30% to 50% of this expansion through new equity or similar mechanisms, which could lead to concerns about potential shareholder dilution or increased debt.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DUK Return | 5% | 19% | 2% | -2% | 16% | 16% | 68% |
| Peers Return | 1% | 18% | 2% | 1% | 31% | 24% | 99% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DUK Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 90% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 48% | 64% | 53% | 62% | 66% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DUK Max Drawdown | -29% | -6% | -16% | -14% | -6% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -8% | -12% | -19% | -7% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEE, CEG, AEP, EXC, EIX. See DUK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/1/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DUK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 692 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 413 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 288 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 969 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NEE, CEG, AEP, EXC, EIX
In The Past
Duke Energy's stock fell -24.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2022. A -24.9% loss requires a 33.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DUK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -3.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.9% | 8.9% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Duke Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 102.58 |
| Mkt Cap | 79.2 |
| Rev LTM | 24,579 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,264 |
| FCF LTM | -822 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -2,027 |
| CFO LTM | 6,647 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,586 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -3.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -8.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 79.2 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/EBIT | 10.5 |
| P/E | 17.9 |
| P/CFO | 8.4 |
| Total Yield | 8.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -4.5% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 30.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -35.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/7/2025 | -0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 8/5/2025 | -0.1% | 1.1% | -1.3% |
| 5/6/2025 | -0.3% | -8.0% | -5.0% |
| 2/13/2025 | -1.2% | 2.3% | 7.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | 1.9% | -0.4% | 1.7% |
| 8/6/2024 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 4.4% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.6% |
| 2/8/2024 | -1.0% | 0.8% | 4.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 0.7% | 1.4% | 4.4% |
| Median Negative | -0.6% | -1.5% | -2.2% |
| Max Positive | 3.2% | 4.6% | 8.5% |
| Max Negative | -2.5% | -8.0% | -11.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
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