Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -5.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 17%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.0%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 38%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 17%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -5.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92%
6 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

DUK Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining Duke Energy's stock movement during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 2, 2025: 1. Reduced Rate Hike Approval in South Carolina. Duke Energy Carolinas proposed a significantly reduced rate hike, with the approved annual revenue increase of $74.2 million being about half of the initially sought $150.5 million. While this benefits customers, a smaller-than-expected revenue increase could be viewed negatively by investors as it impacts future earnings potential.

2. Expanded Capital Plan and Future Financing Needs. Duke Energy unveiled an expanded five-year capital plan ranging from $95 billion to $105 billion, an increase from its current $87 billion plan. The company anticipates financing 30% to 50% of this expansion through new equity or similar mechanisms, which could lead to concerns about potential shareholder dilution or increased debt.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DUK Return5%19%2%-2%16%16%68%
Peers Return1%18%2%1%31%24%99%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DUK Win Rate58%67%58%58%58%90% 
Peers Win Rate42%48%64%53%62%66% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DUK Max Drawdown-29%-6%-16%-14%-6%-2% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-8%-12%-19%-7%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEE, CEG, AEP, EXC, EIX. See DUK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/1/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventDUKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-24.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven692 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven59.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven413 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-20.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven26.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven288 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-42.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven969 days1480 days

Compare to NEE, CEG, AEP, EXC, EIX


In The Past

Duke Energy's stock fell -24.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2022. A -24.9% loss requires a 33.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Duke Energy (DUK)

Better Bets than Duke Energy (DUK)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DUK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.4%2.4%0.0%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.1%7.1%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-3.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.4%2.4%0.0%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.1%7.1%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-3.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Duke Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

DUKNEECEGAEPEXCEIXMedian
NameDuke Ene.NextEra .Constell.American.Exelon Edison I. 
Mkt Price120.7584.65359.05120.5145.6958.13102.58
Mkt Cap93.9174.8112.464.546.222.479.2
Rev LTM31,65926,29824,84121,25724,31718,08824,579
Op Inc LTM8,5837,4043,0175,3005,0605,2275,264
FCF LTM-9213,073-276-1,736-1,595-722-822
FCF 3Y Avg-2,1222,421-4,768-1,932-2,186-1,201-2,027
CFO LTM12,04911,9672,4166,8586,4365,3986,647
CFO 3Y Avg10,53911,847-2,2525,8345,3374,5825,586

Growth & Margins

DUKNEECEGAEPEXCEIXMedian
NameDuke Ene.NextEra .Constell.American.Exelon Edison I. 
Rev Chg LTM4.8%0.2%3.6%8.4%6.1%4.4%4.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.2%11.4%3.7%4.2%8.9%3.1%4.7%
Rev Chg Q4.8%5.3%0.3%10.9%9.0%10.6%7.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.2%1.5%0.1%2.9%2.3%3.1%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM27.1%28.2%12.1%24.9%20.8%28.9%26.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg25.1%31.5%11.1%21.6%19.0%20.5%21.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%-1.4%-1.7%0.1%0.8%2.1%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM38.1%45.5%9.7%32.3%26.5%29.8%31.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg34.6%44.6%-8.9%29.0%23.3%26.3%27.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.9%11.7%-1.1%-8.2%-6.6%-4.0%-3.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-7.1%9.3%-19.0%-9.7%-9.9%-7.0%-8.4%

Valuation

DUKNEECEGAEPEXCEIXMedian
NameDuke Ene.NextEra .Constell.American.Exelon Edison I. 
Mkt Cap93.9174.8112.464.546.222.479.2
P/S3.05.94.12.81.91.22.9
P/EBIT10.420.724.710.68.63.810.5
P/E19.324.037.616.416.16.717.9
P/CFO8.013.042.68.87.13.98.4
Total Yield6.0%7.1%3.1%9.4%9.7%20.9%8.3%
Dividend Yield0.8%2.9%0.5%3.3%3.5%5.9%3.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-2.9%1.3%-9.5%-4.3%-5.5%-4.7%-4.5%
D/E0.90.60.10.81.11.90.9
Net D/E0.90.60.00.81.11.80.8

Returns

DUKNEECEGAEPEXCEIXMedian
NameDuke Ene.NextEra .Constell.American.Exelon Edison I. 
1M Rtn-2.0%4.7%-4.7%1.0%-0.1%5.0%0.5%
3M Rtn-0.6%18.3%16.7%9.4%5.5%5.2%7.5%
6M Rtn4.8%22.4%14.8%18.7%6.2%8.2%11.5%
12M Rtn6.9%11.0%40.7%24.9%19.7%-29.9%15.3%
3Y Rtn36.6%8.4%299.8%42.0%23.3%2.6%30.0%
1M Excs Rtn-0.9%5.4%-9.3%0.6%-1.2%6.1%-0.1%
3M Excs Rtn-6.0%12.8%11.3%3.9%0.1%-0.3%2.0%
6M Excs Rtn-10.9%7.3%2.3%3.1%-9.1%-7.5%-2.6%
12M Excs Rtn-5.0%0.1%31.3%13.3%7.2%-43.5%3.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-31.0%-59.8%212.1%-26.0%-40.6%-62.7%-35.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity15,716,609
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202515.5%
Average Daily Volume3,842,952
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.09
Basic Shares Quantity778,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/7/2025-0.6%0.1% 
8/5/2025-0.1%1.1%-1.3%
5/6/2025-0.3%-8.0%-5.0%
2/13/2025-1.2%2.3%7.0%
11/7/20241.9%-0.4%1.7%
8/6/20240.5%0.7%4.4%
5/7/20240.1%0.0%1.6%
2/8/2024-1.0%0.8%4.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131413
# Negative111011
Median Positive0.7%1.4%4.4%
Median Negative-0.6%-1.5%-2.2%
Max Positive3.2%4.6%8.5%
Max Negative-2.5%-8.0%-11.6%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Glenn Robert AlexanderEVP & Chief Legal Officer11202025Sell123.808,2001,015,1601,407,235Form
1Renjel Louis E.EVP&CEO DEF&MW&ChiefCorpAffOff11192025Sell125.65800100,5202,554,716Form