Tearsheet

Dollar Tree (DLTR)


Market Price (11/15/2025): $104.6 | Market Cap: $21.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Dollar Tree (DLTR)


Market Price (11/15/2025): $104.6
Market Cap: $21.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -21%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 2.9 Bil
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18%
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 7.8%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 43%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Affordability & Value Retail. Themes include Discount Retail, and Value-Oriented Consumer Goods.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 2.9 Bil
2 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 7.8%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 43%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Affordability & Value Retail. Themes include Discount Retail, and Value-Oriented Consumer Goods.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -21%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

DLTR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -7.7% stock movement for Dollar Tree (DLTR) between July 31, 2025, and November 15, 2025:

1. Goldman Sachs Downgrade: On November 13, 2025, Goldman Sachs downgraded Dollar Tree's stock from "Buy" to "Sell" and significantly lowered its price target from $133 to $103, citing concerns about the retailer's appeal to its core lower-income demographic and its current valuation. This analyst action immediately led to a drop in shares.

2. Weak Q3 Earnings Forecast: Despite reporting stronger-than-expected second-quarter 2025 sales and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) on September 3, 2025, investor sentiment soured due to management's forecast for weak third-quarter earnings. The projected adjusted EPS for Q3 was expected to be similar to the previous year, falling significantly below analyst expectations and causing an 8.4% tumble in the stock on the day of the announcement.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DLTR Return15%30%1%0%-47%38%10%
Peers Return34%81%-5%6%10%34%257%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%109%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DLTR Win Rate42%67%50%58%25%60% 
Peers Win Rate60%60%48%55%53%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DLTR Max Drawdown-30%-22%-10%-27%-57%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-42%-12%-36%-27%-24%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ROST, DG, DDS, CTRN, WMT. See DLTR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/14/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventDLTRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-40.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-30.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven43.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven71 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven369 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-53.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven113.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven504 days1480 days

Compare to ROST, DG, DDS, CTRN, WMT


In The Past

Dollar Tree's stock fell -40.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -40.5% loss requires a 68.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Dollar Tree (DLTR)

Better Bets than Dollar Tree (DLTR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DLTR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CLX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.3%-7.3%-7.3%
IPAR_10032025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10032025IPARInterparfumsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.4%-7.4%-7.9%
TAP_9262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09262025TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.6%4.6%-3.6%
GIS_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025GISGeneral MillsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.3%-4.3%-7.1%
SMPL_9122025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09122025SMPLSimply Good FoodsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-27.9%-27.9%-29.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CLX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.3%-7.3%-7.3%
IPAR_10032025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10032025IPARInterparfumsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.4%-7.4%-7.9%
TAP_9262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09262025TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.6%4.6%-3.6%
GIS_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025GISGeneral MillsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.3%-4.3%-7.1%
SMPL_9122025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09122025SMPLSimply Good FoodsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-27.9%-27.9%-29.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Dollar Tree

Financials

DLTRROSTDGDDSCTRNWMTMedian
NameDollar T.Ross Sto.Dollar G.Dillard'sCiti Tre.Walmart  
Mkt Price104.75160.58104.30634.8940.07102.48104.53
Mkt Cap21.751.923.09.90.3817.622.3
Rev LTM11,77721,49841,6526,586783693,15316,637
Op Inc LTM1,4532,5801,790716-1328,9881,621
FCF LTM1,6901,6791,850771-913,7531,684
FCF 3Y Avg1,0081,7971,211749-414,9861,109
CFO LTM2,9232,4743,158858338,4382,699
CFO 3Y Avg2,5832,5652,746862836,7072,574

Growth & Margins

DLTRROSTDGDDSCTRNWMTMedian
NameDollar T.Ross Sto.Dollar G.Dillard'sCiti Tre.Walmart  
Rev Chg LTM13.6%1.9%5.0%-2.4%3.3%4.2%3.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-20.9%5.2%5.7%-1.7%-2.9%5.7%1.8%
Rev Chg Q12.3%4.6%5.1%1.4%8.0%4.8%4.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.5%1.1%1.3%0.3%1.8%1.2%1.2%
Op Mgn LTM12.3%12.0%4.3%10.9%-1.7%4.2%7.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.7%11.5%5.9%12.5%-2.3%4.0%8.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%-0.2%0.1%-0.1%2.2%-0.1%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM24.8%11.5%7.6%13.0%0.4%5.5%9.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg21.4%12.5%6.8%12.7%1.0%5.5%9.7%
FCF/Rev LTM14.3%7.8%4.4%11.7%-1.2%2.0%6.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg8.5%8.8%3.0%11.1%-0.6%2.3%5.7%

Valuation

DLTRROSTDGDDSCTRNWMTMedian
NameDollar T.Ross Sto.Dollar G.Dillard'sCiti Tre.Walmart  
Mkt Cap21.751.923.09.90.3817.622.3
P/S1.82.40.61.50.41.21.3
P/EBIT14.118.712.813.3-183.126.313.7
P/E-7.425.119.317.2-19.338.318.3
P/CFO7.421.07.311.6106.121.316.3
Total Yield-13.5%5.0%6.3%10.0%-5.2%3.5%4.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.0%1.1%4.2%0.0%0.9%0.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.5%4.3%4.5%12.3%-1.7%2.8%4.4%
D/E0.30.10.70.10.70.10.2
Net D/E0.30.00.7-0.10.50.10.2

Returns

DLTRROSTDGDDSCTRNWMTMedian
NameDollar T.Ross Sto.Dollar G.Dillard'sCiti Tre.Walmart  
1M Rtn9.1%2.3%-1.9%5.7%9.8%-6.0%4.0%
3M Rtn-7.7%9.6%-7.0%23.2%25.3%2.5%6.0%
6M Rtn21.1%5.6%12.7%51.3%52.9%4.6%16.9%
12M Rtn59.5%14.1%38.8%55.5%135.7%22.5%47.2%
3Y Rtn-38.0%69.7%-57.0%95.3%81.8%116.7%75.8%
1M Excs Rtn9.8%1.9%-1.2%4.9%9.4%-5.3%3.4%
3M Excs Rtn-10.9%5.8%-11.0%16.9%20.0%-2.7%1.6%
6M Excs Rtn8.1%-7.4%-0.3%38.3%39.9%-8.5%3.9%
12M Excs Rtn55.7%3.2%29.9%62.8%100.8%9.2%42.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-112.0%2.1%-134.0%59.2%33.6%49.4%17.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Dollar Tree16,77015,40613,92213,26512,508
Other revenue116111 
Corporate, support and Other00   
Family Dollar  12,38812,24311,103
Total16,78115,41226,32125,50923,611


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Dollar Tree2,2792,5361,6071,5981,670
Corporate, support and Other-504-436-339-366-333
Family Dollar  543656-75
Total1,7742,0991,8111,8881,262


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity17,703,432
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025-7.7%
Average Daily Volume3,699,869
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.78
Basic Shares Quantity207,300,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.5%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
9/3/2025-8.4%-13.5%-18.9%
6/4/2025-8.4%-3.7%7.8%
3/26/20253.1%12.2%21.0%
12/4/20241.9%0.4%1.2%
9/4/2024-22.2%-19.9%-14.9%
6/5/2024-4.9%-8.9%-11.3%
3/13/2024-14.2%-14.4%-13.0%
11/29/20234.4%10.1%22.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101010
# Negative141414
Median Positive3.7%8.4%12.5%
Median Negative-9.3%-13.0%-14.5%
Max Positive21.9%19.1%22.6%
Max Negative-22.2%-21.1%-26.5%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025903202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025604202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025326202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241204202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024904202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024605202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024320202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231129202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023824202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023525202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023310202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221122202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022825202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022526202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022315202210-K 1/29/2022
103120211123202110-Q 10/30/2021

Insider Activity

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