Dollar General (DG)
Market Price (11/20/2025): $100.3 | Market Cap: $22.1 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Dollar General (DG)
Market Price (11/20/2025): $100.3Market Cap: $22.1 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%, FCF Yield is 8.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 72% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.2 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%, FCF Yield is 8.4% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 72% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
DG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why Dollar General's (DG) stock moved by -4.4% between July 31, 2025, and November 20, 2025:
1. The market exhibited a "better to travel than arrive" reaction to Dollar General's Q2 2025 earnings report. Despite the company surpassing both EPS and revenue forecasts and raising its annual guidance on August 28, 2025, the stock experienced a slight dip in pre-market trading, suggesting that positive expectations may have already been priced in or that investors had even higher underlying expectations.
2. Several analyst downgrades and price target reductions contributed to a weakening sentiment. Throughout the period, professional analysts adjusted their outlooks negatively. Notably, Gordon Haskett lowered its price objective on Dollar General from $130.00 to $115.00 on September 26, 2025. Additionally, Loop Capital cut its target price to $100.00 and maintained a "hold" rating on November 11, 2025, and Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from "hold" to "strong sell" prior to November 17, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DG Return | 36% | 13% | 6% | -44% | -43% | 35% | -31% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 13% | -8% | 29% | 12% | 19% | 125% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DG Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 58% | 33% | 25% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 65% | 48% | 70% | 50% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DG Max Drawdown | -13% | -15% | -20% | -58% | -45% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -20% | -25% | -10% | -28% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WMT, DLTR, FIVE, OLLI, COST. See DG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 155.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -18.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 120 days |
Compare to WMT, DLTR, FIVE, OLLI, COST
In The Past
Dollar General's stock fell -60.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/28/2022. A -60.9% loss requires a 155.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.5% | -12.5% | -12.5% |
| 10032025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -15.1% | -15.1% | -15.1% |
| 09262025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.0% | 1.0% | -3.6% |
| 09262025 | GIS | General Mills | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -7.1% |
| 09122025 | SMPL | Simply Good Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -28.6% | -28.6% | -29.8% |
| 08312024 | DG | Dollar General | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.3% | 34.6% | -16.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.5% | -12.5% | -12.5% |
| 10032025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -15.1% | -15.1% | -15.1% |
| 09262025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.0% | 1.0% | -3.6% |
| 09262025 | GIS | General Mills | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.7% | -3.7% | -7.1% |
| 09122025 | SMPL | Simply Good Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -28.6% | -28.6% | -29.8% |
| 08312024 | DG | Dollar General | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.3% | 34.6% | -16.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Dollar General
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 110.15 |
| Mkt Cap | 21.3 |
| Rev LTM | 26,714 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,621 |
| FCF LTM | 1,770 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,109 |
| CFO LTM | 3,041 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,665 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 21.3 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 24.6 |
| P/E | 32.2 |
| P/CFO | 17.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 33.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 36.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 19.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -27.8% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/28/2025 | 0.5% | -2.5% | -8.2% |
| 6/3/2025 | 15.8% | 16.6% | 18.8% |
| 3/13/2025 | 6.8% | 10.0% | 17.2% |
| 12/5/2024 | 0.1% | 0.4% | -4.6% |
| 8/29/2024 | -32.1% | -35.1% | -29.5% |
| 5/30/2024 | -8.1% | -3.5% | -5.1% |
| 3/14/2024 | -5.1% | -1.3% | -6.2% |
| 12/7/2023 | -1.2% | -2.7% | 0.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 16 | 14 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 3.6% | 6.8% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -4.0% | -6.7% |
| Max Positive | 15.8% | 16.6% | 26.3% |
| Max Negative | -32.1% | -35.1% | -32.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 8282025 | 10-Q 8/1/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6032025 | 10-Q 5/2/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3212025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12052024 | 10-Q 11/1/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 8/2/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 5/3/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3252024 | 10-K 2/2/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12072023 | 10-Q 11/3/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 8/4/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 5/5/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3242023 | 10-K 2/3/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12012022 | 10-Q 10/28/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8252022 | 10-Q 7/29/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5262022 | 10-Q 4/29/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3182022 | 10-K 1/28/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12022021 | 10-Q 10/29/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | TAYLOR EMILY C | EVP & Chief Merchandising Ofc | 6182025 | Sell | 113.00 | 1,969 | 222,501 | 5,261,721 | Form |
| 1 | REARDON KATHLEEN A | EVP & Chief People Officer | 6162025 | Sell | 111.57 | 2,850 | 317,966 | 4,646,319 | Form |
| 2 | TAYLOR EMILY C | EVP & Chief Merchandising Ofc | 4082025 | Sell | 94.72 | 809 | 76,627 | 4,596,878 | Form |
| 3 | CALBERT MICHAEL M | 1032025 | Sell | 75.27 | 248 | 18,667 | 131,873 | Form | |
| 4 | TAYLOR EMILY C | EVP & Chief Merchandising Ofc | 12162024 | Sell | 77.44 | 4,740 | 367,061 | 1,206,114 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |