Tearsheet

Dollar General (DG)


Market Price (11/20/2025): $100.3 | Market Cap: $22.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Dollar General (DG)


Market Price (11/20/2025): $100.3
Market Cap: $22.1 Bil
Sector: Consumer Staples
Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%, FCF Yield is 8.4%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 72%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.2 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 35%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%, FCF Yield is 8.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.2 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 35%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 72%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

DG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points highlighting why Dollar General's (DG) stock moved by -4.4% between July 31, 2025, and November 20, 2025:

1. The market exhibited a "better to travel than arrive" reaction to Dollar General's Q2 2025 earnings report. Despite the company surpassing both EPS and revenue forecasts and raising its annual guidance on August 28, 2025, the stock experienced a slight dip in pre-market trading, suggesting that positive expectations may have already been priced in or that investors had even higher underlying expectations.

2. Several analyst downgrades and price target reductions contributed to a weakening sentiment. Throughout the period, professional analysts adjusted their outlooks negatively. Notably, Gordon Haskett lowered its price objective on Dollar General from $130.00 to $115.00 on September 26, 2025. Additionally, Loop Capital cut its target price to $100.00 and maintained a "hold" rating on November 11, 2025, and Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from "hold" to "strong sell" prior to November 17, 2025.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DG Return36%13%6%-44%-43%35%-31%
Peers Return27%13%-8%29%12%19%125%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DG Win Rate58%50%58%33%25%60% 
Peers Win Rate58%65%48%70%50%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DG Max Drawdown-13%-15%-20%-58%-45%-9% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-20%-25%-10%-28%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WMT, DLTR, FIVE, OLLI, COST. See DG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventDGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-60.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven155.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-18.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven21 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven162 days120 days

Compare to WMT, DLTR, FIVE, OLLI, COST


In The Past

Dollar General's stock fell -60.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/28/2022. A -60.9% loss requires a 155.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Dollar General (DG)

Better Bets than Dollar General (DG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CLX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.5%-12.5%-12.5%
IPAR_10032025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10032025IPARInterparfumsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-15.1%-15.1%-15.1%
TAP_9262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09262025TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.0%1.0%-3.6%
GIS_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025GISGeneral MillsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-7.1%
SMPL_9122025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09122025SMPLSimply Good FoodsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-28.6%-28.6%-29.8%
DG_8312024_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG08312024DGDollar GeneralDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.3%34.6%-16.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CLX_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025CLXCloroxDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.5%-12.5%-12.5%
IPAR_10032025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10032025IPARInterparfumsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-15.1%-15.1%-15.1%
TAP_9262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09262025TAPMolson Coors BeverageDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.0%1.0%-3.6%
GIS_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025GISGeneral MillsDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.7%-3.7%-7.1%
SMPL_9122025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09122025SMPLSimply Good FoodsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-28.6%-28.6%-29.8%
DG_8312024_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG08312024DGDollar GeneralDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.3%34.6%-16.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Dollar General

Financials

DGWMTDLTRFIVEOLLICOSTMedian
NameDollar G.Walmart Dollar T.Five Bel.Ollie's .Costco W. 
Mkt Price99.65100.6199.95148.35119.68890.60110.15
Mkt Cap21.9802.720.78.27.3395.421.3
Rev LTM41,652693,15311,7774,2322,441275,23526,714
Op Inc LTM1,79028,9881,45334926510,3831,621
FCF LTM1,85013,7531,6903451447,8371,770
FCF 3Y Avg1,21114,9861,0081811257,0701,109
CFO LTM3,15838,4382,92355925313,3353,041
CFO 3Y Avg2,74636,7072,58347523411,9142,665

Growth & Margins

DGWMTDLTRFIVEOLLICOSTMedian
NameDollar G.Walmart Dollar T.Five Bel.Ollie's .Costco W. 
Rev Chg LTM5.0%4.2%13.6%13.9%10.1%8.2%9.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.7%5.7%-20.9%13.3%11.9%6.6%6.2%
Rev Chg Q5.1%4.8%12.3%23.7%17.5%8.1%10.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.3%1.2%4.5%4.9%4.3%2.4%3.4%
Op Mgn LTM4.3%4.2%12.3%8.3%10.9%3.8%6.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.9%4.0%12.7%9.6%10.7%3.6%7.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%-0.1%-0.4%-0.1%0.2%0.0%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM7.6%5.5%24.8%13.2%10.4%4.8%9.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg6.8%5.5%21.4%12.7%10.7%4.6%8.8%
FCF/Rev LTM4.4%2.0%14.3%8.2%5.9%2.8%5.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.0%2.3%8.5%4.7%5.8%2.7%3.8%

Valuation

DGWMTDLTRFIVEOLLICOSTMedian
NameDollar G.Walmart Dollar T.Five Bel.Ollie's .Costco W. 
Mkt Cap21.9802.720.78.27.3395.421.3
P/S0.51.21.81.93.01.41.6
P/EBIT12.325.813.423.427.736.024.6
P/E18.437.6-7.129.934.448.832.2
P/CFO6.920.97.114.629.029.717.8
Total Yield6.6%3.5%-14.1%3.3%2.9%2.3%3.1%
Dividend Yield1.2%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.5%2.8%4.5%2.2%2.4%2.1%2.6%
D/E0.80.10.40.20.10.00.2
Net D/E0.70.10.30.20.0-0.00.1

Returns

DGWMTDLTRFIVEOLLICOSTMedian
NameDollar G.Walmart Dollar T.Five Bel.Ollie's .Costco W. 
1M Rtn-6.4%-6.0%0.9%-5.0%-0.9%-4.7%-4.9%
3M Rtn-12.7%-1.9%-11.8%6.5%-11.3%-10.3%-10.8%
6M Rtn-0.0%4.6%12.4%36.0%2.9%-12.9%3.7%
12M Rtn33.6%17.3%54.1%75.4%33.9%-3.8%33.7%
3Y Rtn-59.0%108.8%-38.8%-4.2%113.9%77.2%36.5%
1M Excs Rtn-4.2%-3.9%2.4%-1.6%-0.0%-3.5%-2.5%
3M Excs Rtn-15.1%-1.6%-15.5%0.4%-15.0%-12.3%-13.7%
6M Excs Rtn-13.7%-9.1%-1.2%22.3%-10.8%-26.5%-9.9%
12M Excs Rtn21.6%7.4%42.5%57.3%17.0%-14.4%19.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-125.0%58.8%-107.1%-69.8%47.6%14.2%-27.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Consumables31,34330,15526,25925,90721,636
Seasonal4,0844,1834,1824,0843,259
Home products2,1642,3322,3222,2101,612
Apparel1,1011,1741,4571,5471,247
Total38,69237,84534,22033,74727,754


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,272,144
Short Interest: % Change Since 1015202517.2%
Average Daily Volume2,341,817
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.96
Basic Shares Quantity220,090,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/28/20250.5%-2.5%-8.2%
6/3/202515.8%16.6%18.8%
3/13/20256.8%10.0%17.2%
12/5/20240.1%0.4%-4.6%
8/29/2024-32.1%-35.1%-29.5%
5/30/2024-8.1%-3.5%-5.1%
3/14/2024-5.1%-1.3%-6.2%
12/7/2023-1.2%-2.7%0.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive81012
# Negative161412
Median Positive3.3%3.6%6.8%
Median Negative-4.2%-4.0%-6.7%
Max Positive15.8%16.6%26.3%
Max Negative-32.1%-35.1%-32.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025828202510-Q 8/1/2025
4302025603202510-Q 5/2/2025
1312025321202510-K 1/31/2025
103120241205202410-Q 11/1/2024
7312024829202410-Q 8/2/2024
4302024530202410-Q 5/3/2024
1312024325202410-K 2/2/2024
103120231207202310-Q 11/3/2023
7312023831202310-Q 8/4/2023
4302023601202310-Q 5/5/2023
1312023324202310-K 2/3/2023
103120221201202210-Q 10/28/2022
7312022825202210-Q 7/29/2022
4302022526202210-Q 4/29/2022
1312022318202210-K 1/28/2022
103120211202202110-Q 10/29/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0TAYLOR EMILY CEVP & Chief Merchandising Ofc6182025Sell113.001,969222,5015,261,721Form
1REARDON KATHLEEN AEVP & Chief People Officer6162025Sell111.572,850317,9664,646,319Form
2TAYLOR EMILY CEVP & Chief Merchandising Ofc4082025Sell94.7280976,6274,596,878Form
3CALBERT MICHAEL M 1032025Sell75.2724818,667131,873Form
4TAYLOR EMILY CEVP & Chief Merchandising Ofc12162024Sell77.444,740367,0611,206,114Form