Diageo (DEO)
Market Price (10/20/2025): $97.65 | Market Cap: $60.9 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Distillers & Vintners
Diageo (DEO)
Market Price (10/20/2025): $97.65Market Cap: $60.9 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Distillers & Vintners
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -122% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.3 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.9% |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -122% |
Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -1.3 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -7.9% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
DEO Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
DEO Return | -3% | 42% | -17% | -16% | -10% | -20% | -32% |
Peers Return | 217% | 24% | -2% | 31% | -10% | 30% | 492% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
DEO Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 25% | 50% | 33% | 22% | |
Peers Win Rate | 53% | 43% | 30% | 45% | 32% | 53% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
DEO Max Drawdown | -39% | -3% | -25% | -20% | -17% | -25% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -19% | -29% | -10% | -23% | -16% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BUD, CELH, COKE, SAM, EPSM. See DEO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | DEO | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -37.4% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 59.9% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -39.9% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 66.4% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 381 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -12.7% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 14.5% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -55.5% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 125.0% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 1061 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Diageo's stock fell -37.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -37.4% loss requires a 59.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Title | Topic | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
DASHBOARDS | |||
How Low Can Diageo Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
DEO Dip Buy Analysis | |||
Diageo (DEO) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
Diageo (DEO) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
Diageo (DEO) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
Diageo (DEO) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
Diageo (DEO) worth $79 Bil (down $-11 Bil), still more valuable than Synopsys | Notification | ||
Diageo (DEO) worth $79 Bil (down $-11 Bil), still more valuable than Synopsys | Notification | ||
Diageo (DEO) worth $79 Bil (down $-11 Bil), still more valuable than Synopsys | Notification | ||
Diageo (DEO) Stock Has 57% Chance Of Rise In The Next One Month | |||
ARTICLES | |||
DEO Stock vs. BUD Stock | January 22nd, 2025 | ||
Should You Pick Diageo Stock At $130? | September 23rd, 2024 | ||
How Does The Current Fall In Diageo Stock Compare With That During The 2008 Recession? | June 21st, 2024 | ||
Does Diageo Stock Have More Room For Growth? | March 20th, 2023 | ||
Up 16% In A Month, Will Diageo Stock See Higher Levels? | December 6th, 2022 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DEO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.0% | -0.0% | -6.0% |
09302025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.6% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
07312025 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -15.9% | -15.9% | -21.1% |
06302025 | SJM | JM Smucker | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
05312025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.5% | -12.5% | -22.4% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.0% | -0.0% | -6.0% |
09302025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.6% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
07312025 | STZ | Constellation Brands | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -15.9% | -15.9% | -21.1% |
06302025 | SJM | JM Smucker | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
05312025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.5% | -12.5% | -22.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Diageo
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 81.25 |
Mkt Cap | 16.7 |
Rev LTM | 6,948 |
Op Inc LTM | 183 |
FCF LTM | 222 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 185 |
CFO LTM | 286 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 240 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
Rev Chg Q | 3.3% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
Op Mgn LTM | 10.4% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 14.0% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 10.8% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 16.7 |
P/S | 2.1 |
P/EBIT | 13.6 |
P/E | 20.6 |
P/CFO | 13.6 |
Total Yield | 4.8% |
Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
D/E | 0.1 |
Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 3.6% |
3M Rtn | 16.3% |
6M Rtn | -5.1% |
12M Rtn | -4.4% |
3Y Rtn | 43.5% |
1M Excs Rtn | 3.6% |
3M Excs Rtn | 9.3% |
6M Excs Rtn | -31.3% |
12M Excs Rtn | -18.1% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -44.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
North America | 8,109 | 8,106 | 7,209 | 5,690 | |
Europe | 4,303 | 4,238 | 3,540 | 3,160 | |
Asia Pacific | 3,841 | 3,837 | 3,443 | 2,794 | |
Supply Chain and Procurement (SC&P) | 3,687 | 2,672 | 2,127 | 1,653 | |
Latin America and Caribbean | 2,159 | 2,027 | 1,448 | 1,118 | |
Africa | 2,039 | 2,238 | 1,954 | 1,657 | |
Corporate and other | 104 | 70 | 28 | 47 | |
Eliminate inter- segment sales | -3,687 | -2,672 | -2,127 | -1,653 | |
Premium drinks | 16,904 | ||||
Total | 20,555 | 20,516 | 17,623 | 14,465 | 16,904 |
$ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
North America | 3,104 | 3,267 | 3,096 | ||
Europe | 1,300 | 1,161 | 858 | ||
Latin America and Caribbean | 783 | 712 | 419 | ||
Asia Pacific | 523 | 655 | 841 | ||
Africa | 234 | 419 | 237 | ||
Eliminate inter- segment sales | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Supply Chain and Procurement (SC&P) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Corporate and other | -397 | -317 | -288 | ||
Total | 5,547 | 5,897 | 5,164 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8142025 | 20-F 6/30/2025 |
6302024 | 8012024 | Annual 6/30/2024 |
6302023 | 8032023 | 20-F 6/30/2023 |
12312022 | 1272023 | 6-K 12/31/2022 |
12312021 | 1272022 | 6-K 12/31/2021 |
12312020 | 1282021 | 6-K 12/31/2020 |
12312019 | 1302020 | 6-K 12/31/2019 |
12312018 | 2052019 | 6-K 12/31/2018 |
12312017 | 1252018 | 6-K 12/31/2017 |
12312016 | 2022017 | 6-K 12/31/2016 |
12312013 | 2062014 | 6-K 12/31/2013 |
12312012 | 2222013 | 6-K 12/31/2012 |
6302012 | 9052012 | 20-F 6/30/2012 |
12312011 | 4162012 | 6-K 12/31/2011 |
6302011 | 9132011 | 20-F 6/30/2011 |
12312010 | 4212011 | 6-K 12/31/2010 |
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