Deere (DE)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $483.46 | Market Cap: $130.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Deere (DE)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $483.46Market Cap: $130.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 8.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.1 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, Automation & Robotics, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Machine Vision, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 8.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, Automation & Robotics, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Machine Vision, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -14%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -59% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Deere (symbol: DE) experienced several movements during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025. Key points influencing the stock's activity include:
1. Negative Reaction to Q4 2025 Earnings Report: Despite exceeding revenue and earnings per share forecasts for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, Deere's stock experienced significant declines, including a 4.97% drop in pre-market trading on November 26, 2025, and a 5.7% decline on November 27, 2025. This negative reaction was primarily driven by investor apprehension regarding the company's cautious fiscal year 2026 outlook, which anticipated a decline in large agricultural equipment sales and a further deterioration in net income compared to fiscal 2025.
2. Impact of Tariffs and Increased Production Costs: Deere's Q4 2025 net income decreased by 14% year-over-year, partly attributed to higher production costs and the ongoing impact of tariffs. The company also projected that fiscal year 2026 net income would be affected by approximately $1.2 billion in pre-tax tariff impacts. These factors contributed to margin pressures across segments, particularly in Small Agriculture & Turf.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DE Return | 58% | 29% | 27% | -5% | 8% | 15% | 202% |
| Peers Return | 15% | 10% | -1% | 19% | 17% | 21% | 110% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DE Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 50% | 25% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 45% | 33% | 47% | 45% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DE Max Drawdown | -36% | -1% | -15% | -19% | -13% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -7% | -24% | -8% | -11% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CAT, ALSN, TEX, ASTE, AEBI. See DE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -23.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 351 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 281.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 711 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CAT, ALSN, TEX, ASTE, AEBI
In The Past
Deere's stock fell -34.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2022. A -34.1% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Deere
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 70.37 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.6 |
| Rev LTM | 4,206 |
| Op Inc LTM | 668 |
| FCF LTM | 454 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 647 |
| CFO LTM | 608 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 801 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.6 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/EBIT | 13.4 |
| P/E | 21.6 |
| P/CFO | 16.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 16.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -7.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -56.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 8282025 | 10-Q 7/27/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5292025 | 10-Q 4/27/2025 |
| 1312025 | 2272025 | 10-Q 1/26/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12122024 | 10-K 10/27/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 7/28/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 4/28/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2292024 | 10-Q 1/28/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12152023 | 10-K 10/29/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/30/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 2232023 | 10-Q 1/29/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12152022 | 10-K 10/30/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5262022 | 10-Q 5/1/2022 |
| 1312022 | 2242022 | 10-Q 1/30/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12162021 | 10-K 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
