Dropbox (DBX)
Market Price (10/19/2025): $29.09 | Market Cap: $7.9 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Dropbox (DBX)
Market Price (10/19/2025): $29.09Market Cap: $7.9 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.4% |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% | ||
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 11% |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 23% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35% |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41% |
Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.4% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
DBX Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
DBX Return | 24% | 11% | -9% | 32% | 2% | -3% | 63% |
Peers Return | 23% | 23% | -14% | 24% | 21% | 7% | 108% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
DBX Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 67% | |
Peers Win Rate | 35% | 38% | 18% | 42% | 40% | 44% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
DBX Max Drawdown | -12% | -2% | -22% | -15% | -30% | -18% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -3% | -21% | -5% | -3% | -11% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, BOX, BIYA, BLIV. See DBX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | DBX | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -41.5% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 71.0% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 315 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -30.1% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 43.1% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -60.1% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 150.7% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Dropbox's stock fell -41.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/9/2021. A -41.5% loss requires a 71.0% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Title | Topic | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
DASHBOARDS | |||
Dropbox Earnings Notes | |||
Dropbox Stock Lost 5.5%, Buy Or Wait? | Return | ||
Dropbox vs Merck: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
Dropbox vs First Solar: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
How Does Dropbox Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
Better Bet Than DBX Stock: Pay Less Than Dropbox To Get More From MRK, D | |||
Better Bet Than DBX Stock: Pay Less Than Dropbox To Get More From FSLR, GEN | |||
Better Bet Than DBX Stock: Pay Less Than Dropbox To Get More From ACIW | |||
DBX Dip Buy Analysis | |||
Dropbox Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 1.9% in 2024 and 7.0% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
ARTICLES | |||
Dropbox Stock At $30: What’s Next? | February 21st, 2025 | ||
How Dropbox Stock Might React To Upcoming Earnings | February 19th, 2025 | ||
Is This Beaten Down Tech Theme Worth A Look? | August 10th, 2022 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DBX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ADBE | Adobe | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.5% | -5.5% | -6.7% |
09302025 | CRM | Salesforce | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -0.6% |
09302025 | MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.1% | 9.1% | -1.8% |
09262025 | POWI | Power Integrations | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | -13.4% |
09262025 | ROP | Roper Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.2% | 1.2% | -0.3% |
04302024 | DBX | Dropbox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.5% | 23.3% | -10.4% |
02282023 | DBX | Dropbox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 36.7% | 16.9% | -7.0% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ADBE | Adobe | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.5% | -5.5% | -6.7% |
09302025 | CRM | Salesforce | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -0.6% |
09302025 | MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.1% | 9.1% | -1.8% |
09262025 | POWI | Power Integrations | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | -13.4% |
09262025 | ROP | Roper Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.2% | 1.2% | -0.3% |
04302024 | DBX | Dropbox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.5% | 23.3% | -10.4% |
02282023 | DBX | Dropbox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 36.7% | 16.9% | -7.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Dropbox
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 30.87 |
Mkt Cap | 1,137.0 |
Rev LTM | 186,966 |
Op Inc LTM | 38,380 |
FCF LTM | 7,187 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 11,250 |
CFO LTM | 61,020 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 48,911 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
Rev Chg Q | 11.1% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
Op Mgn LTM | 16.9% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 32.8% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 32.3% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 22.4% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.3% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 1,137.0 |
P/S | 3.8 |
P/EBIT | 24.3 |
P/E | 23.6 |
P/CFO | 16.4 |
Total Yield | 4.5% |
Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
D/E | 0.1 |
Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -5.8% |
3M Rtn | 4.1% |
6M Rtn | 15.1% |
12M Rtn | 11.3% |
3Y Rtn | 62.2% |
1M Excs Rtn | -6.3% |
3M Excs Rtn | -2.6% |
6M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
12M Excs Rtn | -2.4% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -19.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
8/7/2025 | 2.7% | 5.8% | 15.8% |
5/8/2025 | -0.8% | -0.8% | -0.7% |
2/20/2025 | -16.2% | -18.6% | -16.9% |
10/30/2024 | 1.4% | 3.3% | 8.4% |
8/8/2024 | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% |
5/9/2024 | -0.0% | 3.5% | -7.8% |
2/15/2024 | -22.9% | -26.2% | -26.3% |
11/2/2023 | -1.6% | -0.7% | 7.1% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 9 | 10 | 13 |
# Negative | 13 | 12 | 9 |
Median Positive | 3.3% | 4.2% | 7.4% |
Median Negative | -2.4% | -6.9% | -11.8% |
Max Positive | 20.0% | 10.7% | 22.0% |
Max Negative | -22.9% | -26.2% | -26.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 11052021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Peacock Karen | 9102025 | Sell | 30.00 | 2,000 | 60,000 | 698,850 | Form | |
1 | Yoon William T | Chief Legal Officer | 9102025 | Sell | 30.16 | 11,430 | 344,753 | 6,746,116 | Form |
2 | Dasdan Ali | Chief Technology Officer | 9102025 | Sell | 30.00 | 12,812 | 384,360 | 16,531,800 | Form |
3 | Alkarmi Ashraf | General Manager, Core | 9102025 | Sell | 30.00 | 10,000 | 300,000 | 13,779,990 | Form |
4 | Parasnis Abhay | 9092025 | Sell | 29.50 | 1,782 | 52,569 | 1,142,830 | Form |
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