Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.3%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.1%, FCF Yield is 5.1%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 32 Bil, FCF LTM is 15 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include US LNG, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.3%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.1%, FCF Yield is 5.1%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 32 Bil, FCF LTM is 15 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include US LNG, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CVX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The following are key points for Chevron's stock movement based on information available up to early 2025, as a specific 0.8% movement for the future period cannot be accurately addressed. The provided search results contain information up to late 2024 and early to mid-2025. **1. Chevron's 2025 Capital Expenditure (Capex) Budget and Focus on Free Cash Flow.** Chevron announced an organic capital expenditure range of $14.5 to $15.5 billion for consolidated subsidiaries and $1.7 to $2.0 billion for affiliate capital expenditure for 2025, representing a $2 billion year-over-year reduction from 2024. This reduction in spending, particularly in the Permian Basin, signals a strategic shift to prioritize free cash flow generation over aggressive production growth, aiming to enhance shareholder returns. **2. Permian Basin Production Growth.** Despite the reduction in Permian Basin capital spending, Chevron anticipates a 9-10% increase in oil production from the Permian in 2025 compared to the 2024 average, with a long-term plan to maintain production at or over 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboe/d) for many years. This continued production growth from key U.S. assets contributes to the company's overall strong outlook. **3. Shareholder Returns and Dividend Growth.** Chevron has emphasized its commitment to returning cash to shareholders, with a target of $10-$20 billion in annual share buybacks, potentially removing 3-6% of the float annually. The company also reported returning a record $27 billion cash to shareholders in 2024 and announced a 5% increase in its quarterly dividend to $1.71 per share. The company has a history of consistently increasing its dividend, marking 37 consecutive years of increases. **4. Hess Acquisition and Regulatory Approvals.** The expected acquisition of Hess Corporation received approval from Hess shareholders and is awaiting regulatory approval, with an arbitration case with Exxon needing to be settled. This acquisition is a significant factor in Chevron's growth trajectory and could impact future production volumes and financial performance. **5. Impact of Oil and Natural Gas Prices.** Chevron's financial performance and stock movement are highly sensitive to commodity prices. While Chevron's CFO has predicted that increased oil supply from OPEC+ and non-aligned nations may keep pressure on crude prices into 2026, natural gas prices, particularly Henry Hub, are expected to rise due to increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Fluctuations in these prices directly influence the profitability of Chevron's upstream operations.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CVX Return-26%46%58%-14%1%7%61%
Peers Return-11%12%31%9%-4%29%77%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%109%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CVX Win Rate33%67%58%50%58%80% 
Peers Win Rate38%43%50%42%32%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CVX Max Drawdown-54%0%0%-19%-5%-7% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-6%-3%-16%-18%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PSX, SUN, DK, DEC, RRI. See CVX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/26/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCVXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-24.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven110 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-55.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven124.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven652 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1130 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-45.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven82.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven725 days1480 days

Compare to PSX, SUN, DK, DEC, RRI


In The Past

Chevron's stock fell -24.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -24.9% loss requires a 33.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Chevron (CVX)

Better Bets than Chevron (CVX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CVX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.5%12.5%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.3%0.3%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.7%-1.7%-5.7%
SLB_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025SLBSLBDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.5%12.5%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.3%0.3%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.7%-1.7%-5.7%
SLB_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025SLBSLBDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Chevron

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CVXPSXSUNDKDECRRIMedian
NameChevron Phillips.Sunoco Delek US Diversif.Roosevel. 
Mkt Price149.51134.96-38.8914.74-86.93
Mkt Cap289.954.6-2.3--54.6
Rev LTM186,979131,953-10,667--131,953
Op Inc LTM15,0671,718--59--1,718
FCF LTM15,4241,351--741--1,351
FCF 3Y Avg18,1854,069--215--4,069
CFO LTM31,8453,408--130--3,408
CFO 3Y Avg34,2506,060-230--6,060

Growth & Margins

CVXPSXSUNDKDECRRIMedian
NameChevron Phillips.Sunoco Delek US Diversif.Roosevel. 
Rev Chg LTM-3.6%-10.7%--20.5%---10.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-6.2%-6.6%--17.2%---6.6%
Rev Chg Q-1.5%-2.9%--5.1%---2.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.4%-0.8%--1.4%---0.8%
Op Mgn LTM8.1%1.3%--0.6%--1.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg11.2%3.1%--0.2%--3.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%0.7%-3.9%--0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM17.0%2.6%--1.2%--2.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.6%4.2%-1.3%--4.2%
FCF/Rev LTM8.2%1.0%--6.9%--1.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.3%2.8%--2.2%--2.8%

Valuation

CVXPSXSUNDKDECRRIMedian
NameChevron Phillips.Sunoco Delek US Diversif.Roosevel. 
Mkt Cap289.954.6-2.3--54.6
P/S1.60.4-0.2--0.4
P/EBIT13.518.6--10.6--13.5
P/E23.636.6--3.8--23.6
P/CFO9.516.1--14.9--9.5
Total Yield8.3%6.2%--23.3%--6.2%
Dividend Yield4.1%3.5%-3.2%--3.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.2%7.5%--12.2%--6.2%
D/E0.10.4-1.7--0.4
Net D/E0.10.4-1.4--0.4

Returns

CVXPSXSUNDKDECRRIMedian
NameChevron Phillips.Sunoco Delek US Diversif.Roosevel. 
1M Rtn-1.9%1.8%-4.6%16.2%-3.2%
3M Rtn-5.1%2.5%-45.1%-11.3%--1.3%
6M Rtn10.8%19.9%-100.0%8.2%-15.3%
12M Rtn-3.5%5.0%-113.6%-1.9%-1.6%
3Y Rtn-4.9%39.5%-37.2%-29.4%-16.1%
1M Excs Rtn-0.8%3.0%-5.7%17.4%-4.4%
3M Excs Rtn-9.9%-2.3%-40.4%-16.0%--6.1%
6M Excs Rtn-4.4%4.6%-84.8%-7.0%-0.1%
12M Excs Rtn-17.8%-9.1%-105.9%-13.7%--11.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-78.9%-34.5%--41.5%-100.8%--60.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Upstream194,805183,105184,412191,309186,037
Downstream54,48853,22145,22439,58642,152
All Other12,33921,3839,8998,8959,239
Total261,632257,709239,535239,790237,428


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity14,528,769
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120253.6%
Average Daily Volume8,063,868
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.80
Basic Shares Quantity1,938,922,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/31/20252.7%-0.4% 
8/1/2025-0.2%1.0%7.1%
5/2/20251.6%0.6%2.4%
1/31/2025-4.6%-2.8%-1.0%
11/1/20242.9%5.3%10.1%
8/2/2024-2.7%-5.3%-2.0%
4/26/20240.4%-2.8%-3.6%
2/2/20242.9%4.2%1.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111314
# Negative131110
Median Positive1.6%1.4%4.9%
Median Negative-3.5%-2.8%-3.6%
Max Positive8.9%5.3%28.6%
Max Negative-6.7%-10.0%-12.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0HESS JOHN B 8262025Sell158.30375,00059,363,550222,105,952Form