CVS Health (CVS)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $81.25 | Market Cap: $104.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Services
CVS Health (CVS)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $81.25Market Cap: $104.0 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 15% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.0 Bil Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 19 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -51% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58% Key risksCVS key risks include [1] elevated Medicare costs pressuring its Health Care Benefits segment, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 3.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 8.6%, FCF Yield is 15% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.0 Bil |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 19 Bil, FCF LTM is 16 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Telehealth Platforms, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -51% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58% |
| Key risksCVS key risks include [1] elevated Medicare costs pressuring its Health Care Benefits segment, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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CVS Health (CVS) stock has lost about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Market Uncertainty Following Strategic Split Announcement.
The most significant event contributing to the stock's decline was the announcement on November 4, 2026, of CVS Health's plan to separate into two independent publicly traded companies: CVS Health (focusing on healthcare solutions including Aetna and Caremark) and CVS Pharmacy (encompassing retail pharmacies and MinuteClinic operations). Despite reporting stronger-than-expected Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings, with an Adjusted EPS of $2.09 against a $1.65 consensus, and raising its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $8.20 from a previous range of $7.90 to $8.10, the stock experienced a sharp drop of approximately 12.53% on November 4, 2026. This reaction, which resulted in a loss of over $14 billion in valuation, was primarily driven by market uncertainty surrounding the details of the split and concerns about potential pharmacy benefit headwinds in fiscal 2027.
2. Persistent Negative Market Reaction to Strong Earnings.
Even prior to the strategic split announcement, CVS Health's stock demonstrated a pattern of negative market reactions despite strong financial performance. Following its Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings report on August 5, 2026, the stock fell 5.1%. This decline occurred despite the company beating analyst estimates with an Adjusted EPS of $2.58, significantly exceeding the $1.87 consensus, and reporting revenues of $106.1 billion, above the $100.03 billion estimate. This indicates an underlying investor skepticism or concerns that were not fully alleviated by positive earnings and guidance.
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CVS Health (CVS) stock has lost about 20% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Market Uncertainty Following Strategic Split Announcement.
The most significant event contributing to the stock's decline was the announcement on November 4, 2026, of CVS Health's plan to separate into two independent publicly traded companies: CVS Health (focusing on healthcare solutions including Aetna and Caremark) and CVS Pharmacy (encompassing retail pharmacies and MinuteClinic operations). Despite reporting stronger-than-expected Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings, with an Adjusted EPS of $2.09 against a $1.65 consensus, and raising its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $8.20 from a previous range of $7.90 to $8.10, the stock experienced a sharp drop of approximately 12.53% on November 4, 2026. This reaction, which resulted in a loss of over $14 billion in valuation, was primarily driven by market uncertainty surrounding the details of the split and concerns about potential pharmacy benefit headwinds in fiscal 2027.
2. Persistent Negative Market Reaction to Strong Earnings.
Even prior to the strategic split announcement, CVS Health's stock demonstrated a pattern of negative market reactions despite strong financial performance. Following its Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings report on August 5, 2026, the stock fell 5.1%. This decline occurred despite the company beating analyst estimates with an Adjusted EPS of $2.58, significantly exceeding the $1.87 consensus, and reporting revenues of $106.1 billion, above the $100.03 billion estimate. This indicates an underlying investor skepticism or concerns that were not fully alleviated by positive earnings and guidance.
3. Growing Regulatory Scrutiny on Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs).
Throughout the specified period, the healthcare industry, and particularly the Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) sector, faced increasing regulatory pressure. This is a significant external factor for CVS Health, given that its Caremark segment is a major PBM. States like Arkansas and Tennessee have enacted laws prohibiting PBM ownership of pharmacies, and similar federal legislation has been introduced. This heightened scrutiny creates an environment of uncertainty and potential operational and financial headwinds for CVS Health's integrated business model.
4. Substantial Insider Selling Activity.
A notable internal factor contributing to negative sentiment was the significant insider selling activity. Over the six months leading up to October 31, 2026, insiders at CVS Health sold a total of $323.70 million worth of stock, with no insider buying reported during the same period. This substantial net selling by company executives, including large individual transactions, can signal a lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects and exert downward pressure on the stock price.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.6% change in CVS stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -79.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 103.69 | 81.33 | -21.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 407,905 | 420,614 | 3.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.7% | 2.6% | 265.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 45.0 | 9.4 | -79.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,273 | 1,282 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CVS | -21.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.9% | -24.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.8% | -9.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.0% change in CVS stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -84.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 82.19 | 81.33 | -1.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 402,067 | 420,614 | 4.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.4% | 2.6% | 496.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 59.0 | 9.4 | -84.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,270 | 1,282 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CVS | -1.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.3% | -9.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 27.2% | 10.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.3% change in CVS stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 2104.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 75.82 | 81.33 | 7.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 394,084 | 420,614 | 6.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.1% | 2.6% | 2104.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 205.2 | 9.4 | -95.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,269 | 1,282 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CVS | 7.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.4% | -2.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 29.8% | 18.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.0% change in CVS stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 200.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 61.63 | 81.33 | 32.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 339,204 | 420,614 | 24.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.9% | 2.6% | 200.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.7 | 9.4 | -64.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,283 | 1,282 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CVS | 32.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 10.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | 55.5% | 27.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CVS Return | 55% | -8% | -13% | -41% | 84% | 6% | 44% |
| Peers Return | 24% | 15% | -2% | 0% | -2% | 27% | 75% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CVS Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 33% | 33% | 67% | 55% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 58% | 45% | 55% | 58% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CVS Max Drawdown | -11% | -20% | -28% | -44% | -15% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -18% | -18% | -28% | -35% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: UNH, CI, ELV, HUM, WMT. See CVS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CVS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 855 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -14.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 239 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 711 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.0% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1638 days | 6 days |
In The Past
CVS Health's stock fell -8.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 9.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | CVS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.7% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 855 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 239 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 711 days | 105 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.1% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 301 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 799 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
CVS Health's stock fell -8.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 9.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About CVS Health (CVS)
CVS Health is a leading diversified healthcare company in the United States, providing a wide array of health services. Its business is primarily structured around three core segments: health insurance, pharmacy benefit management, and retail pharmacy with integrated clinics. This comprehensive approach allows CVS Health to address various healthcare needs for a broad spectrum of customers and markets.
Through its Health Care Benefits segment, CVS Health offers traditional and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services to employer groups, individuals, college students, governmental units, and other health plans. The Pharmacy Services segment provides extensive pharmacy benefit management solutions, including plan design, formulary management, and specialty pharmacy services, primarily serving employers, insurance companies, unions, and government-sponsored plans. This segment also operates various specialized pharmacies for mail-order, compounding, and infusion services.
Finally, CVS Health's Retail/LTC segment operates a vast network of CVS Pharmacy retail locations where it sells prescription and over-the-counter drugs, consumer health and beauty products, and offers convenient healthcare services through its MinuteClinic walk-in medical clinics. This segment also distributes prescription drugs and provides related pharmacy consulting and services to long-term care facilities, further extending its reach to serve individual consumers and care institutions alike.
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A company combining the retail presence of Walgreens, the health insurance of UnitedHealthcare, and pharmacy benefit management like Express Scripts.
A healthcare giant like UnitedHealth Group, but with a massive retail pharmacy and clinic footprint akin to Walgreens.
It's like Walgreens and UnitedHealthcare merged, then added a major pharmacy benefit management arm.
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- Health Insurance Products: CVS Health offers various traditional and consumer-directed health insurance plans and related services.
- Pharmacy Benefit Management (PBM) Solutions: CVS Health provides pharmacy benefit management services, including formulary management, mail order, and specialty pharmacy services, to employers and health plans.
- Retail Pharmacy Sales: CVS Health sells prescription and over-the-counter drugs, as well as general consumer health and beauty products, through its retail stores.
- Specialty Pharmacy and Infusion Services: CVS Health provides specialized pharmacy services for complex medical conditions, including mail-order, compounding, and infusion services.
- MinuteClinic Walk-in Medical Services: CVS Health offers accessible healthcare services for minor illnesses and injuries through its MinuteClinic walk-in clinics.
- Long-Term Care (LTC) Pharmacy Services: CVS Health provides prescription drug distribution and related pharmacy consulting services to long-term care facilities.
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CVS Health serves a diverse customer base, primarily reaching individuals through various channels, including direct sales and through intermediary organizations. Based on the provided description, its major customer categories are:
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Individual Consumers: This includes people who directly purchase prescription drugs, over-the-counter medications, consumer health and beauty products at CVS retail locations and online. It also encompasses individuals seeking health care services through MinuteClinic walk-in medical clinics, as well as college students, part-time and hourly workers, and expatriates who may directly enroll in health insurance products.
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Employer Groups and Organizations: This category includes employers, labor groups, unions, government employee groups, and other sponsors of health benefit plans. These entities purchase health insurance products, pharmacy benefit management (PBM) solutions, and related services from CVS Health to provide to their employees, members, or constituents.
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Health Plans, Insurers, and Care Facilities: This category encompasses insurance companies, health plans, governmental units, government-sponsored plans, prescription drug plans, and Medicaid managed care plans. These organizations contract with CVS Health for services such as formulary management, retail pharmacy network management, mail order pharmacy, specialty pharmacy, infusion, and clinical services. Additionally, care facilities and other care settings purchase prescription drugs and related pharmacy consulting services from CVS Health's Retail/LTC segment.
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- Cencora (COR)
- Cardinal Health (CAH)
- McKesson Corporation (MCK)
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Key Risks to CVS Health (CVS)
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Regulatory and Reimbursement Pressures: CVS Health operates in a heavily regulated healthcare environment, making it vulnerable to changes in government policies, laws, and regulations, particularly concerning reimbursement rates for its government-sponsored programs like Medicare and Medicaid. Weakness in Medicare Advantage rates, specifically a proposed low increase for 2027, could undermine over one-third of CVS Health's revenue and hinder growth in this critical segment. Pharmacy reimbursement pressures further contribute to this risk.
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Intense Competition and Market Saturation: The company faces significant and increasing competition across all its segments from traditional pharmacy chains, other health insurers, pharmacy benefit managers, online retailers (including tech giants entering healthcare), and new healthcare providers. This competitive landscape necessitates continuous innovation and adaptation to maintain market share and relevance, potentially leading to pricing pressures and reduced profitability.
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Rising Medical Costs and Profit Margin Erosion: CVS Health is exposed to the risk of rising medical costs, particularly within its Health Care Benefits segment. Higher-than-expected medical expenses can significantly impact the company's already thin single-digit profit margins and lead to substantial financial consequences, especially in the absence of robust sales growth. Challenges such as unforeseen heightened utilization in Medicare Advantage further exacerbate these pressures.
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- Increased legislative and regulatory scrutiny of Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) could significantly impact the profitability and operating model of CVS Health's Pharmacy Services segment (CVS Caremark).
- The expansion of online prescription fulfillment services, particularly from major entrants like Amazon Pharmacy, poses a direct competitive threat to CVS Health's retail pharmacy and mail-order businesses by offering alternative, convenient, and potentially lower-cost prescription access.
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CVS Health Corporation operates in several large addressable markets within the United States.
Health Care Benefits
The U.S. health and medical insurance market, in which CVS Health's Health Care Benefits segment (Aetna) operates, is substantial. This market was valued at approximately USD 1.65 trillion in 2026 and is projected to grow to USD 2.15 trillion by 2031. Another estimate placed the market at USD 613.0 billion in 2024, expanding to USD 1161.7 billion by 2032. A further report valued the market at USD 469.8 billion in 2025.
Pharmacy Services
CVS Health's Pharmacy Services segment (CVS Caremark) participates in the U.S. pharmacy benefit management (PBM) market. This market was estimated at USD 519.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach approximately USD 921.52 billion by 2035. Other reports indicate the PBM market size was calculated at USD 459.65 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach around USD 1,041.11 billion by 2034. Additionally, the U.S. specialty pharmacy market, a key component of pharmacy services, saw an estimated $265 billion in dispensed pharmaceuticals in 2024.
Retail/LTC
In its Retail/LTC segment, CVS Health operates in several U.S. markets:
- Retail Pharmacy: The U.S. retail pharmacy market is estimated to reach US$ 670.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to US$ 901.4 billion by 2032. Another source noted the market size as USD 670.5 billion in 2025. More broadly, the U.S. pharmacy market was valued at USD 643.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 905.8 billion by 2033.
- MinuteClinic (Retail Clinics/Walk-in Clinics): The U.S. retail clinics market was valued at USD 2.44 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow from USD 2.71 billion in 2025 to USD 6.29 billion by 2033. Another estimate for the walk-in clinic market size in 2025 is $7.45 billion, with a projection to reach approximately $20 billion by 2033.
- Long-Term Care (LTC) Pharmacy Services: The U.S. long-term care pharmacy services market is estimated to be valued at USD 22.8 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 38.7 billion by 2032.
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- Expansion of Health Services and Care Delivery: CVS Health anticipates significant revenue growth from its Health Services segment, particularly through the expansion and integration of acquired assets like Oak Street Health and Signify Health. The company plans to add 50 to 60 new Oak Street Health centers in 2024, and the new CVS Healthspire brand aims to simplify access to multi-payor capabilities, driving better outcomes and increased member value.
- Growth in Medicare Advantage Membership and Margin Recovery: The Medicare Advantage business, operated under its Aetna arm, is integral to CVS Health's strategy. Despite some challenges with elevated medical costs in 2024, CVS Health expects to add at least 800,000 new Medicare Advantage members in 2024 and anticipates Medicare Advantage margin recovery starting in 2025. This recovery is a key driver for strong earnings growth and a favorable long-term outlook.
- New Pharmacy Reimbursement Models: CVS Health is implementing new pharmacy reimbursement models, including CVS CostVantage for its retail pharmacies and CVS Caremark TrueCost for Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) clients. These models, with CostVantage launching for commercial payors in 2025, are designed to create a more transparent, sustainable, and value-aligned approach to pharmacy reimbursement, reflecting the true net cost of prescription drugs.
- Optimization of Pharmacy and Consumer Wellness Segment: The Pharmacy and Consumer Wellness segment is expected to continue contributing to revenue growth through increased prescription volume, a favorable pharmacy drug mix, and the strategic integration of its retail pharmacies as a "front door" to the broader healthcare enterprise. The retail arm demonstrated strong revenue growth in 2023 and Q4 2024.
- Leveraging Technology and Integrated Platform for Enhanced Engagement: CVS Health is developing a fully integrated, AI-native platform, branded as "Engagement as a Service," to connect its various healthcare entities (Aetna, CVS Caremark, CVS Pharmacy, and Health Care Delivery). This initiative aims to transform consumer experiences, enhance engagement, lower healthcare costs, and unlock personalized products and services, ultimately driving greater lifetime member value.
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Share Repurchases
- CVS Health repurchased approximately $3.0 billion of common stock during the nine months ended September 30, 2024, and approximately $2.0 billion during the nine months ended September 30, 2023, under its 2021 Repurchase Program.
- As of February 10, 2026, the company completed repurchases of approximately $8.5 billion under the buyback announced on December 9, 2021.
- The Board of Directors authorized a $10.0 billion share repurchase program on November 17, 2022, with the full $10.0 billion remaining as of September 30, 2024.
Share Issuance
- CVS Health's shares outstanding for 2025 were 1.271 billion, a 0.71% increase from 2024.
- In November 2024, a one-time promotional equity award was granted to the CEO, consisting of stock options to acquire one million shares and stock-settled SARs with respect to 492,537 shares, with a grant price of $71.82 per share.
Outbound Investments
- CVS Health acquired Oak Street Health for $10.6 billion in February 2023.
- CVS Health acquired Signify Health for $8 billion in September 2022.
- In April 2024, CVS Health acquired Hella Health, a platform offering Medicare health insurance plans.
Capital Expenditures
- CVS Health's capital expenditures for fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025 averaged $2.778 billion, with a peak of $3.031 billion in December 2023.
- The company plans a substantial $20 billion investment over the next decade, beginning in June 2025, to enhance technology and interoperability in healthcare delivery.
- A multi-year plan to close approximately 900 stores aims to refocus assets into HealthHUBs that offer expanded clinical services.
Peer Outperformance in Health Care Services
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVS | CVS Health | 6.5% | 9.4x | 6.7% | 28.1% | 2.5% | — |
| DGX | Quest Diagnostics | 8.5% | 24.8x | 45.3% | 101.4% | 99.6% | +97pp |
| DVA | DaVita | 6.0% | 13.5x | 60.8% | 146.7% | 78.1% | +76pp |
| LH | Labcorp | 6.6% | 29.3x | 46.4% | 78.3% | 36.0% | +33pp |
| CRVL | CorVel | 10.4% | 37.8x | 13.8% | 29.7% | 35.9% | +33pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 7.6% | 56.6% | 93.6% | CAH 498% · MCK 396% · COR 181% |
| Health Care Services ← | 20 | 33.8% | 28.8% | 6.1% | HIMS 189% · RDNT 125% · DGX 100% |
| Health Care Facilities | 25 | 13.9% | 27.4% | -1.4% | THC 280% · NHC 210% · EHC 186% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 47.9% | 1.6% | -2.2% | OSCR 95% · HQY 52% · ELV 10% |
| Health Care Equipment | 50 | 11.0% | 17.8% | -17.6% | UFPT 355% · GKOS 286% · PLSE 127% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 61 | -12.9% | 10.6% | -37.3% | LQDA 977% · XERS 571% · KNSA 500% |
| Health Care Supplies | 11 | 23.9% | 17.0% | -40.1% | LNTH 248% · HAE 66% · MMSI 29% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 108 | -8.1% | -18.9% | -74.5% | AXGN 255% · NTRA 214% · MEDP 181% |
| Biotechnology | 364 | -25.8% | -36.1% | -82.0% | ELVN 1073% · TRVI 995% · DNTH 956% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -21.4% | -50.4% | -82.8% | VEEV -3% · DOCS -51% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 346.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 98.9 |
| Rev LTM | 350,975 |
| Op Inc LTM | 19,492 |
| FCF LTM | 11,311 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,427 |
| CFO LTM | 14,492 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,566 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 10.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 98.9 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 11.8 |
| P/EBIT | 13.5 |
| P/E | 20.2 |
| P/CFO | 12.9 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 10.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 24.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 2.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 9.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -81.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Services | 190,425 | 173,605 | 186,843 | 169,576 | 153,892 |
| Health Care Benefits | 143,354 | 130,665 | 105,646 | 91,350 | 82,119 |
| Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness | 139,367 | 124,500 | 116,763 | 108,596 | 101,620 |
| Corporate/Other | 484 | 451 | 451 | 530 | 721 |
| Intersegment Eliminations | -71,563 | -56,412 | -51,927 | -47,585 | -46,241 |
| Total | 402,067 | 372,809 | 357,776 | 322,467 | 292,111 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Services | 7,151 | 7,243 | 7,312 | 6,781 | 6,492 |
| Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness | 6,040 | 5,774 | 5,963 | 6,531 | 7,260 |
| Health Care Benefits | 2,939 | 307 | 5,577 | 6,338 | 5,110 |
| Office real estate optimization charges | -10 | -30 | -46 | -117 | 0 |
| Net realized capital losses | -44 | 117 | -497 | -320 | 176 |
| Health Care Delivery clinic closure charge | -83 | ||||
| Acquisition-related integration costs | -117 | -243 | -487 | -132 | |
| Loss on Accountable Care assets | -288 | -2,533 | 0 | ||
| Opioid litigation charge | -320 | -100 | |||
| Legacy litigation charges | -1,220 | ||||
| Corporate/Other | -1,687 | -1,348 | -1,318 | -1,613 | -1,635 |
| Amortization of intangible assets | -1,976 | -2,025 | -1,905 | -1,785 | -2,233 |
| Goodwill impairment | -5,725 | -431 | |||
| Restructuring charges | -1,179 | -507 | 0 | ||
| Loss on assets held for sale | -349 | ||||
| Gain on divestiture of subsidiary | 475 | 0 | |||
| Omnicare litigation charge | -5,803 | 0 | |||
| Acquisition purchase price adjustment outside of measurement period | 61 | ||||
| Intersegment Eliminations | 0 | ||||
| Store impairments | -1,358 | ||||
| Total | 4,660 | 8,516 | 13,743 | 7,954 | 13,310 |
| $ Mil | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pharmacy Services Segment | 42,302 | 38,343 | 36,057 | 35,704 | 32,254 |
| Retail Pharmacy | 30,979 | 30,191 | 29,183 | 28,323 | 28,927 |
| Corporate | 2,530 | 4,420 | 1,408 | 1,121 | 1,439 |
| Intersegment | -1,559 | ||||
| Eliminations | -1,428 | -736 | -605 | -451 | |
| Total | 74,252 | 71,526 | 65,912 | 64,543 | 62,169 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $81.33 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 104.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/17/1984 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -25.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $90.06 | $87.75 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -9.7% | -7.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.0% | 33.9% |
| Downside Capture | 9.41 | -2.65 |
| Upside Capture | -96.71 | 4.12 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -27.7% | -0.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.58 | -0.31 | -0.21 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| Up Beta | -1.77 | -1.57 | -0.77 | -0.23 | -0.03 | 0.41 |
| Down Beta | -0.12 | -0.94 | -1.11 | -0.17 | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| Up Capture | -21% | -6% | -15% | 28% | 16% | 6% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 13 | 22 | 56 | 125 | 399 |
| Down Capture | -113% | 21% | 68% | 7% | 0% | 22% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 30 | 41 | 69 | 125 | 351 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CVS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVS | 7.4% | 33.9% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 29.2% | 16.9% | 1.33 | 18.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.41 | -2.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.6% | 28.7% | 0.11 | -6.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 37.7% | 21.2% | 1.40 | 0.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.0% | 14.2% | 0.55 | 8.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.8% | 43.3% | -0.42 | -5.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CVS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVS | 1.6% | 31.0% | 0.08 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.6% | 15.4% | 0.36 | 37.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 22.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | -4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 4.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 21.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.9% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 8.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CVS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVS | 2.4% | 29.8% | 0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 12.2% | 16.8% | 0.60 | 48.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 37.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.5% | 0.59 | -3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 11.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 32.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.3% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 6.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/6/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2026 | -12.5% | ||
| 8/5/2026 | -5.1% | -10.5% | -6.9% |
| 5/6/2026 | 7.6% | 17.9% | 17.5% |
| 2/10/2026 | -0.1% | 3.2% | -0.1% |
| 10/29/2025 | -1.9% | -5.0% | -2.8% |
| 7/31/2025 | -0.3% | 2.0% | 15.8% |
| 5/1/2025 | 4.1% | 0.1% | -4.0% |
| 2/12/2025 | 14.9% | 20.7% | 19.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 3.2% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -5.0% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 20.7% | 19.9% |
| Max Negative | -16.8% | -17.7% | -17.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2026 | -12.5% | ||
| 8/5/2026 | -5.1% | -10.5% | -6.9% |
| 5/6/2026 | 7.6% | 17.9% | 17.5% |
| 2/10/2026 | -0.1% | 3.2% | -0.1% |
| 10/29/2025 | -1.9% | -5.0% | -2.8% |
| 7/31/2025 | -0.3% | 2.0% | 15.8% |
| 5/1/2025 | 4.1% | 0.1% | -4.0% |
| 2/12/2025 | 14.9% | 20.7% | 19.5% |
| 11/6/2024 | 11.3% | -2.4% | 2.7% |
| 8/7/2024 | -3.2% | -4.3% | -0.5% |
| 5/1/2024 | -16.8% | -17.7% | -17.2% |
| 2/7/2024 | 3.1% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| 11/1/2023 | -0.4% | 1.8% | -1.5% |
| 8/2/2023 | 3.3% | 0.1% | -9.6% |
| 5/3/2023 | -3.7% | -3.8% | -5.3% |
| 2/8/2023 | 3.5% | 3.0% | -10.4% |
| 11/2/2022 | 2.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| 8/3/2022 | 6.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% |
| 5/4/2022 | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| 2/9/2022 | -5.4% | -7.1% | -6.1% |
| 11/3/2021 | 5.7% | 1.8% | -1.3% |
| 8/4/2021 | -2.9% | -0.9% | 2.0% |
| 5/4/2021 | 4.4% | 10.5% | 10.7% |
| 2/16/2021 | -5.0% | -5.0% | 1.2% |
| 11/6/2020 | 5.8% | 13.0% | 19.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 3.2% | 5.2% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -5.0% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 20.7% | 19.9% |
| Max Negative | -16.8% | -17.7% | -17.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/07/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/08/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/10/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/07/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/08/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/09/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/16/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/18/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/5/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Cash flow from operations | Reported | 15.50 Bil | 15.50 Bil | 34.8% | Raised | Guidance: 11.50 Bil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted income attributable to CVS Health | Reported | 10.57 Bil | 10.57 Bil | |||||
| 2026 Total revenues | Reported | 420.00 Bil | 420.00 Bil | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 414.00 Bil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Net income attributable to CVS Health (GAAP measure) | Reported | 9.00 Bil | 9.00 Bil | |||||
| 2026 GAAP diluted EPS | Reported | 6.98 | 6.98 | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 6.94 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 8.2 | 8.2 | 2.5% | Raised | Guidance: 8 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Weighted average diluted shares outstanding | Reported | 1.29 Bil | ||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Cash Flow from Operations | Reported | 11.50 Bil | 21.1% | Raised | Guidance: 9.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 414.00 Bil | 2.2% | Raised | Guidance: 405.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 GAAP Diluted EPS | Reported | 6.84 | 6.94 | 7.04 | 9.5% | Raised | Guidance: 6.34 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 7.9 | 8 | 8.1 | 8.1% | Raised | Guidance: 7.4 for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Cash flow from operations | Reported | 9.50 Bil | 5.6% | Raised | Guidance: 9.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Total revenues | Reported | 405.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Diluted earnings per share | Reported | 6.24 | 6.34 | 6.44 | 5.0% | Raised | Guidance: 6.04 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 7.3 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 4.2% | Raised | Guidance: 7.1 for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/10/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Cash Flow from Operations | Reported | 9.00 Bil | -10.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 10.00 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 GAAP Diluted EPS | Reported | 5.94 | 6.04 | 6.14 | Affirmed | Actual: -0.29 for 2025 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 7 | 7.1 | 7.2 | Affirmed | Actual: 6.6 for 2025 | ||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/29/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbins, Larry | Held by Glenview Investment Funds | Sell | 5212026 | 93.45 | 370,462 | 34,619,007 | 450,868,782 | Form | |
| 2 | Robbins, Larry | Held by Glenview Investment Funds | Sell | 5212026 | 93.82 | 1,018,000 | 95,510,822 | 487,429,908 | Form | |
| 3 | Robbins, Larry | Held by Glenview Investment Funds | Sell | 5212026 | 94.45 | 1,983,538 | 187,341,308 | 586,830,421 | Form | |
| 4 | Mandadi, Tilak | EVP, Chief Exp & Tech Officer | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 89.58 | 69,551 | 6,230,379 | 907,714 | Form |
| 5 | Nelson, Steven H | EVP and President, Aetna | Trust | Buy | 1262026 | 53.70 | 24 | 1,289 | 1,289 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbins, Larry | Held by Glenview Investment Funds | Sell | 5212026 | 93.45 | 370,462 | 34,619,007 | 450,868,782 | Form | |
| 2 | Robbins, Larry | Held by Glenview Investment Funds | Sell | 5212026 | 93.82 | 1,018,000 | 95,510,822 | 487,429,908 | Form | |
| 3 | Robbins, Larry | Held by Glenview Investment Funds | Sell | 5212026 | 94.45 | 1,983,538 | 187,341,308 | 586,830,421 | Form | |
| 4 | Mandadi, Tilak | EVP, Chief Exp & Tech Officer | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 89.58 | 69,551 | 6,230,379 | 907,714 | Form |
| 5 | Nelson, Steven H | EVP and President, Aetna | Trust | Buy | 1262026 | 53.70 | 24 | 1,289 | 1,289 | Form |
| 6 | Capozzi, Heidi B | EVP and Chief People Officer | Trust | Buy | 10142025 | 56.85 | 35 | 1,990 | 4,832 | Form |
| 7 | Capozzi, Heidi B | EVP and Chief People Officer | Trust | Buy | 10142025 | 62.24 | 10 | 622 | 3,112 | Form |
| 8 | Capozzi, Heidi B | EVP and Chief People Officer | Trust | Buy | 10142025 | 56.47 | 35 | 1,976 | 2,259 | Form |
| 9 | Finucane, Anne A | Trust | Sell | 8292025 | 71.02 | 7,500 | 532,650 | 1,573,519 | Form | |
| 10 | Sansone, Guy P | Direct | Buy | 6092025 | 63.70 | 1,570 | 100,009 | 764,869 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 6, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $588.7 Mil | 15.9% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings LTD/ Can | $194.8 Mil | 10.0% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Solel Partners LP | $35.5 Mil | 7.6% | 19 | TRIM -16.8% | 13F |
| Kiltearn Partners LLP | $26.2 Mil | 7.1% | 25 | TRIM -17.4% | 13F |
| Colrain Capital LLC | $10.7 Mil | 4.1% | 26 | ADD +21.6% | 13F |
| Patient Capital Management, LLC | $97.5 Mil | 3.6% | 38 | ADD +10.2% | 13F |
| Permit Capital, LLC | $9.0 Mil | 3.1% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Atle Fund Management AB | $9.3 Mil | 3.0% | 39 | TRIM -77.7% | 13F |
| Hamlin Capital Management, LLC | $118.0 Mil | 2.8% | 30 | TRIM -19.0% | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $75.3 Mil | 2.4% | 44 | ADD +28.4% | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $9.7 Mil | 2.3% | 42 | TRIM -23.8% | 13F |
| SRB Corp | $36.3 Mil | 2.2% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| MFF Capital Investments Ltd | $25.9 Mil | 1.7% | 19 | ADD +17.2% | 13F |
| Legacy CG, LLC | $5.7 Mil | 1.6% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Park West Asset Management LLC | $12.7 Mil | 1.1% | 48 | ADD +20.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $75.3 Mil | 2.4% | 44 | ADD +28.4% | 13F |
| Colrain Capital LLC | $10.7 Mil | 4.1% | 26 | ADD +21.6% | 13F |
| Park West Asset Management LLC | $12.7 Mil | 1.1% | 48 | ADD +20.1% | 13F |
| MFF Capital Investments Ltd | $25.9 Mil | 1.7% | 19 | ADD +17.2% | 13F |
| Patient Capital Management, LLC | $97.5 Mil | 3.6% | 38 | ADD +10.2% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sachem Head Capital Management LP | $205.1 Mil | 4.8% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $48.6 Mil | 0.5% | 31 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| 8 Knots Management, LLC | $40.9 Mil | 4.7% | 12 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Iron Triangle Partners LP | $34.3 Mil | 3.9% | 27 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Benson Investment Management Company, Inc. | $5.9 Mil | 2.1% | 50 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Atle Fund Management AB | $9.3 Mil | 3.0% | 39 | TRIM -77.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $9.7 Mil | 2.3% | 42 | TRIM -23.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Hamlin Capital Management, LLC | $118.0 Mil | 2.8% | 30 | TRIM -19.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Kiltearn Partners LLP | $26.2 Mil | 7.1% | 25 | TRIM -17.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Solel Partners LP | $35.5 Mil | 7.6% | 19 | TRIM -16.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenview Capital Management, LLC | $588.7 Mil | 15.9% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings LTD/ Can | $194.8 Mil | 10.0% | 29 | Hold | 13F |
| Hamlin Capital Management, LLC | $118.0 Mil | 2.8% | 30 | TRIM -19.0% | 13F |
| Patient Capital Management, LLC | $97.5 Mil | 3.6% | 38 | ADD +10.2% | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $75.3 Mil | 2.4% | 44 | ADD +28.4% | 13F |
| SRB Corp | $36.3 Mil | 2.2% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Solel Partners LP | $35.5 Mil | 7.6% | 19 | TRIM -16.8% | 13F |
| Kiltearn Partners LLP | $26.2 Mil | 7.1% | 25 | TRIM -17.4% | 13F |
| MFF Capital Investments Ltd | $25.9 Mil | 1.7% | 19 | ADD +17.2% | 13F |
| Park West Asset Management LLC | $12.7 Mil | 1.1% | 48 | ADD +20.1% | 13F |
| Colrain Capital LLC | $10.7 Mil | 4.1% | 26 | ADD +21.6% | 13F |
| Sector Gamma AS | $9.7 Mil | 2.3% | 42 | TRIM -23.8% | 13F |
| Atle Fund Management AB | $9.3 Mil | 3.0% | 39 | TRIM -77.7% | 13F |
| Permit Capital, LLC | $9.0 Mil | 3.1% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Legacy CG, LLC | $5.7 Mil | 1.6% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
CVS Trade Sentinel
Neutral / Watch
CONVICTION RATIONALE
While 2026 operational execution is strong, with an improved insurance margin and a raised earnings forecast, this is overshadowed by a major strategic pivot. The plan to split the company and a guided 2027 earnings trough for the Health Services segment create significant uncertainty, warranting a neutral stance until the future path is clearer.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hybrid (Recurring Service & Transactional Product)A composite of (Number of Members x Premiums/Fees) for the benefits business, plus (Volume of Claims x Price/Fee) for the PBM, plus (Retail Volume x Price) for the pharmacy and consumer segment. Profitability is driven by spreads achieved through scale and negotiation: the medical loss ratio in insurance, the net cost of drugs in the PBM, and gross margins on retail products.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The strategic separation announced Nov. 4, 2026, aims to create two more agile, focused businesses from a position of operational strength.
- Company announced intention to separate into two independent companies by H1 2028.
- Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to at least $8.20.
- Operating margin expanded to 3.6% from 2.7% over the last twelve months.
- Management provided a preliminary 2027 adjusted EPS floor of at least $8.65.
PRIMARY RISK
The complex separation introduces dis-synergy risks, while management has guided that 2027 will be a 'trough earnings' year for the Health Services segment, a major profit driver.
- Management stated 2027 will reflect 'trough earnings' for the Health Services segment.
- The PBM business is 'trending to a retention rate that's slightly lower than our historical performance'.
- The stock reacted -13.0% to the separation announcement and forward outlook.
- PBM business practices face numerous investigations from the DOJ, FTC, and state Attorneys General.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Medical Benefit Ratio (MBR) | 91.3% for the three months ended September 30, 2026 - Turning around | The successful execution of the company's margin recovery plan in the Health Care Benefits segment led to a year-over-year improvement, driven by better performance in the Government business. Management has expressed confidence in its progress toward target margins. |
| Same-Store Prescription Volume Growth (Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness) | 3.9% year-over-year growth for the three months ended September 30, 2026 - Decelerating | While same-store prescription volume continues to grow, the pace has moderated significantly from the higher single-digit rates seen in late 2025 and early 2026. This indicates a slowdown in organic growth momentum within the retail pharmacy business. |
| Total Medical Membership | 26.1 million (as of September 30, 2026) | Indicates the scale of the Health Care Benefits segment's insurance and administrative services operations. |
| Pharmacy Claims Processed (30-day equivalent) | 481.7 million (for the three months ended September 30, 2026) | Measures the volume of prescription claims managed by the Health Services (PBM) segment, a primary driver of its revenue and profitability. |
| Prescriptions Filled (30-day equivalent) | 470.0 million (for the three months ended September 30, 2026) | Measures the prescription volume dispensed by the Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness segment, a key driver of its pharmacy revenue. |
Strategic Value Unlock vs. Near-Term Disruption
BULL VIEW
The split is a decisive move to create two nimbler companies, evidenced by strong 2026 execution and a raised EPS outlook of at least $8.20.
CORE TENSION
Can the long-term value from two focused companies outweigh the near-term uncertainty from a guided 2027 earnings trough and significant separation risk?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The market's sharp -13.0% reaction suggests near-term risks and strategic uncertainty are currently outweighing the potential long-term benefits of the separation.
BEAR VIEW
The split signals the prior integrated strategy failed, creating execution risk and a guided 2027 earnings trough for the large Health Services segment.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
1/25/2027 | Peer Medical Cost Read-Through Watch: Peer commentary on medical cost trends and MBR outlooks, which could negatively reset expectations for CVS's upcoming report. |
1/26/2027 | Elevance Health Earnings Watch: Peer Elevance Health (ELV) scheduled to report earnings. |
2/3/2027 | Cigna Earnings Watch: Peer Cigna (CI) scheduled to report earnings. |
2/8/2027 | Disappointing 2027 Guidance Watch: Formal 2027 guidance, particularly segment-level details for Health Services and the MBR outlook for Health Care Benefits. |
2/8/2027 | Q4 Earnings and Guidance Watch: Company to report Q4 2026 earnings and provide formal 2027 guidance. |
No set date | Adverse FTC Settlement Order Watch: The final FTC order, which could contain stricter terms or penalties than anticipated, impacting PBM operations and profitability. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-04 | Announced Plan to Separate Details: The company announced its intent to separate into two publicly traded companies, raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $8.20, and reported a -13.0% stock reaction. | -12.5% $91.41 -> $79.96 |
2026-11-04 | Proposed FTC Settlement Details: The company and the FTC announced a proposed settlement agreement that would resolve all outstanding investigations related to the company's PBM and affiliated pharmacy businesses. | -12.5% $91.41 -> $79.96 |
2026-10-20 | MinuteClinic Expansion Details: The company opened three new MinuteClinic retail medical clinics in Massachusetts, including the first location in Boston, to expand access to healthcare services. | +0.8% $92.02 -> $92.79 |
2026-08-17 | Board Changes Announced Details: The company announced the appointment of Teresa Heitsenrether to the Board and the departure of Larry Robbins after two years. | -2.3% $96.47 -> $94.23 |
2026-08-05 | Negative Q2 Earnings Reaction Details: The stock reacted negatively to the second quarter earnings report, declining 8.0% over the two-day period around the announcement. | -7.9% $103.68 -> $95.54 |
2026-05-07 | Positive Q1 Earnings Reaction Details: The market reacted positively to the company's first quarter earnings report, with the stock gaining 4.0% over the two-day period around the announcement. | +4.2% $85.71 -> $89.35 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: CVS trades at roughly 26% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (2.7x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
UNH - UnitedHealth Group
Integrated Model LeaderUNH demonstrates a more profitable integrated model, with a 5.3% operating margin versus 3.6% for CVS, and is not undergoing a disruptive strategic separation.
WMT - Walmart
Retail Pharmacy CompetitorAs a key competitor in retail pharmacy, Walmart's scale and focus on price may offer a more defensive position against pressures on pharmacy reimbursement.
An integrated healthcare giant deconstructing itself to unlock value, separating its high-growth health solutions arm from its stable, cash-generating retail pharmacy empire.
CVS is leveraging its massive scale across insurance, PBM, and retail to manage healthcare costs. After a period of integration and performance recovery, particularly in its Aetna insurance arm, management has announced a plan to split the company. This move aims to create two more focused entities: one centered on high-growth healthcare solutions (benefits, PBM, care delivery) and another on the resilient, cash-flow-heavy retail and community pharmacy business. The success of this strategic pivot will depend on executing the complex separation while navigating significant regulatory pressures in its core markets.
Sustained margin improvement in the Health Care Benefits segment, a strong PBM selling season for 2028, and a smooth, on-schedule execution of the company separation.
Significant adverse changes to Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates, major PBM client losses, or material dissynergies and execution costs arising from the planned separation.
Minor changes in front-store product assortment, individual store closures or openings, or collaborations on wellness initiatives.
Repricing Catalyst
The November 4, 2026 announcement of the plan to separate into two independent, publicly traded companies, expected to be completed in the first half of 2028.
Health Care Benefits
$145.8B TTM (35% of Total)What It Is
Offers a broad range of traditional, voluntary, and consumer-directed health insurance products and related services, including medical, pharmacy, dental, and behavioral health plans, as well as Medicare Advantage, Medicare Supplement, and Medicaid plans. Customers include employer groups, government-sponsored plans, and individuals.
Who Pays & How
Employers, government agencies (like CMS), and individuals write checks for premiums to provide or obtain access to a broad network of healthcare providers and to manage medical costs.
Competition
Health Services
$200.5B TTM (48% of Total)What It Is
Provides a full range of Pharmacy Benefit Management (PBM) solutions (CVS Caremark), including plan design, formulary management, and claims processing. It also delivers health care services through medical clinics (Oak Street Health), in-home health evaluations (Signify Health), and virtually. Clients are primarily employers, insurance companies, unions, and government employee groups.
Who Pays & How
Health plan sponsors (employers, insurers, government entities) pay for PBM services to control prescription drug costs through negotiated discounts with manufacturers and pharmacies. The segment also generates revenue from the sale and management of prescription drugs.
Competition
Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness
$139.7B TTM (34% of Total)What It Is
Dispenses prescriptions and sells a wide assortment of health/wellness products and general merchandise through approximately 9,000 retail locations (CVS Pharmacy) and online. Pharmacy revenues constitute the majority of the segment's sales.
Who Pays & How
Third-party payors (PBMs, managed care organizations, government programs) pay for the majority of prescription revenues. Consumers pay directly for front-store merchandise and for prescription co-pays.
Competition
Corporate/Other
$528M TTM (0% of Total)What It Is
Consists of management and administrative expenses to support overall operations, as well as legacy products for which the company no longer solicits new customers, such as large case pensions and long-term care insurance.
Who Pays & How
This segment primarily reflects corporate overhead and is not a primary revenue-generating operation.
Competition
CVS Health — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Health Care Resources |
| U.S. National Library of Medicine |
| ClinicalTrials.gov |
| Modern Healthcare |
| Healthcare Dive |
| Fierce Healthcare |
| Health Affairs |
| Health Data Management |
| FDA Tracker |
| Health Care Services Resources |
| HealthLeaders Media |
| Medical Economics |
| Physicians Practice |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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