Carvana (CVNA)
Market Price (11/13/2025): $327.23 | Market Cap: $45.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
Carvana (CVNA)
Market Price (11/13/2025): $327.23Market Cap: $45.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 69x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 73x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 52% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7% | ||
| Short seller reportHindenburg Research report on 1/2/2025. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 69x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 73x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 52% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.7% |
| Short seller reportHindenburg Research report on 1/2/2025. |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
CVNA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -15.9% movement in Carvana's stock (CVNA) between July 31, 2025, and November 13, 2025:
1. The Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Miss.
On October 29, 2025, Carvana announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results, reporting an EPS of $1.03. This figure fell significantly short of the consensus analyst estimates, which ranged from $1.29 to $1.37. Despite recording higher-than-expected revenue, this miss on the bottom line led to an immediate negative market reaction, with shares dropping by as much as 17% in after-hours trading following the announcement.
2. Negative Impact from Root Warrants.
Carvana's net income for the third quarter of 2025 was negatively impacted by a non-cash loss of $120 million, stemming from a decline in the fair value of its Root warrants. This factor contributed to the company's profitability being lower than anticipated by analysts, further dampening investor sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CVNA Return | 160% | -3% | -98% | 1017% | 284% | 61% | 257% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 48% | -11% | 29% | 16% | -3% | 149% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CVNA Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 17% | 67% | 75% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 43% | 50% | 62% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CVNA Max Drawdown | -68% | -15% | -98% | -7% | -23% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -4% | -30% | -5% | -11% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ORLY, AZO, LAD, AN, KMX. See CVNA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CVNA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -99.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 9848.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 947 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -73.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 275.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -57.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 130 days | 120 days |
Compare to ORLY, AZO, LAD, AN, KMX
In The Past
Carvana's stock fell -99.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/10/2021. A -99.0% loss requires a 9848.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CVNA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -4.2% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.5% | 1.5% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.5% | -1.5% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.4% | -1.4% | -2.5% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.6% | 17.6% | -6.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -4.2% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.5% | 1.5% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.5% | -1.5% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.4% | -1.4% | -2.5% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.6% | 17.6% | -6.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Carvana
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 246.83 |
| Mkt Cap | 26.6 |
| Rev LTM | 22,653 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,633 |
| FCF LTM | 616 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 468 |
| CFO LTM | 937 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 760 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 26.6 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 11.5 |
| P/E | 18.2 |
| P/CFO | 27.9 |
| Total Yield | 6.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 59.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.7% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -13.8% | -12.5% | |
| 7/30/2025 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 13.1% |
| 5/7/2025 | 10.2% | 17.9% | 31.8% |
| 2/19/2025 | -12.1% | -17.5% | -34.2% |
| 10/30/2024 | 19.3% | 15.3% | 25.6% |
| 7/31/2024 | 10.0% | -3.4% | 12.6% |
| 2/22/2024 | 32.1% | 44.9% | 64.0% |
| 11/2/2023 | 7.9% | 1.7% | 33.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 18.1% | 10.9% | 25.6% |
| Median Negative | -12.1% | -6.1% | -12.5% |
| Max Positive | 40.2% | 66.1% | 108.3% |
| Max Negative | -39.0% | -30.4% | -50.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7192023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | GARCIA ERNEST C. III | Chief Executive Officer | 10022025 | Sell | 391.50 | 572 | 223,938 | 147,896,564 | Form |
| 1 | GARCIA ERNEST C. III | Chief Executive Officer | 9292025 | Sell | 361.22 | 250 | 90,305 | 143,111,752 | Form |
| 2 | GARCIA ERNEST C. III | Chief Executive Officer | 9292025 | Sell | 368.65 | 250 | 92,162 | 147,419,448 | Form |
| 3 | GARCIA ERNEST C. III | Chief Executive Officer | 9292025 | Sell | 356.32 | 100 | 35,632 | 143,005,469 | Form |
| 4 | GARCIA ERNEST C. III | Chief Executive Officer | 9252025 | Sell | 369.30 | 50 | 18,465 | 150,079,827 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |