Carvana (CVNA)
Market Price (10/15/2025): $346.7 | Market Cap: $46.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
Carvana (CVNA)
Market Price (10/15/2025): $346.7Market Cap: $46.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 65x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 83x | |
Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% |
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% |
Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 65x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 83x |
Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
CVNA Stock
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
CVNA Return | 160% | -3% | -98% | 1017% | 284% | 70% | 258% |
Peers Return | 31% | 48% | -11% | 29% | 16% | 6% | 172% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
CVNA Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 17% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Peers Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 43% | 50% | 62% | 53% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
CVNA Max Drawdown | -68% | -15% | -98% | -7% | -23% | -20% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -4% | -30% | -5% | -11% | -16% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ORLY, AZO, LAD, KMX, AN. See CVNA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/14/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | CVNA | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -99.0% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 9848.9% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 947 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -73.3% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 275.1% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -57.9% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 137.3% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 130 days | 120 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Carvana's stock fell -99.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/10/2021. A -99.0% loss requires a 9848.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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About Carvana (CVNA)
Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars in the United States. The company's platform allows customers to research and identify a vehicle; inspect it using company's 360-degree vehicle imaging technology; obtain financing and warranty coverage; purchase the vehicle; and schedule delivery or pick-up from their desktop or mobile devices. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past trade ideas related to CVNA and Automotive Retail.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -15.3% | -15.3% | -15.3% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.1% | -5.1% | -7.6% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.1% | -0.1% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -5.9% | -5.9% | -11.7% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -15.3% | -15.3% | -15.3% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.1% | -5.1% | -7.6% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.1% | -0.1% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -5.9% | -5.9% | -11.7% |
See Trefis Trade Ideas for more.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Carvana
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 266.33 |
Mkt Cap | 27.6 |
Rev LTM | 22,635 |
Op Inc LTM | 1,524 |
FCF LTM | 650 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 385 |
CFO LTM | 966 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 759 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
Rev Chg Q | 6.6% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
Op Mgn LTM | 6.9% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 4.5% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 3.2% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 27.6 |
P/S | 1.6 |
P/EBIT | 12.3 |
P/E | 19.8 |
P/CFO | 19.5 |
Total Yield | 5.7% |
Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
D/E | 0.6 |
Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -5.3% |
3M Rtn | 3.5% |
6M Rtn | 11.1% |
12M Rtn | 28.6% |
3Y Rtn | 95.5% |
1M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
3M Excs Rtn | -2.9% |
6M Excs Rtn | -13.2% |
12M Excs Rtn | 16.3% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 19.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
7/30/2025 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 13.1% |
5/7/2025 | 10.2% | 17.9% | 31.8% |
2/19/2025 | -12.1% | -17.5% | -34.2% |
10/30/2024 | 19.3% | 15.3% | 25.6% |
7/31/2024 | 10.0% | -3.4% | 12.6% |
2/22/2024 | 32.1% | 44.9% | 64.0% |
11/2/2023 | 7.9% | 1.7% | 33.9% |
7/19/2023 | 40.2% | 10.8% | -4.4% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 15 | 13 | 14 |
# Negative | 8 | 10 | 9 |
Median Positive | 19.3% | 11.0% | 26.4% |
Median Negative | -9.8% | -5.5% | -12.5% |
Max Positive | 40.2% | 66.1% | 108.3% |
Max Negative | -39.0% | -30.4% | -50.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 7192023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 11042021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | GARCIA ERNEST C. III | Chief Executive Officer | 9292025 | Sell | 361.22 | 250 | 90,305 | 143,111,752 | Form |
1 | GARCIA ERNEST C. III | Chief Executive Officer | 9292025 | Sell | 368.65 | 250 | 92,162 | 147,419,448 | Form |
2 | GARCIA ERNEST C. III | Chief Executive Officer | 9292025 | Sell | 356.32 | 100 | 35,632 | 143,005,469 | Form |
3 | GARCIA ERNEST C. III | Chief Executive Officer | 9252025 | Sell | 369.30 | 50 | 18,465 | 150,079,827 | Form |
4 | GARCIA ERNEST C. III | Chief Executive Officer | 9252025 | Sell | 392.46 | 282 | 110,674 | 159,655,868 | Form |
External Quote Links
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CNBC | Etrade |
MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
FinViz |