Carvana (CVNA)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $397.5 | Market Cap: $55.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
Carvana (CVNA)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $397.5Market Cap: $55.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 32x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 79x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 83x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 52% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0% | ||
| Short seller reportHindenburg Research report on 1/2/2025. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 32x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 79x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 83x |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 52% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.0% |
| Short seller reportHindenburg Research report on 1/2/2025. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CVNA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Carvana (CVNA) stock movement of 7.2% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
**1. Carvana's Q3 2025 Revenue Surpassed Expectations and Record Unit Sales:** Carvana reported record-breaking revenue of $5.65 billion for the third quarter of 2025, significantly exceeding analyst estimates of approximately $5.18 billion. This top-line growth was accompanied by all-time quarterly records in retail unit sales, with 155,941 vehicles sold, representing a 44% increase year-over-year.
**2. Demonstrated Profitability and Strong Operational Metrics:** Despite an earnings per share (EPS) miss compared to estimates, Carvana showcased robust underlying profitability. The company achieved a GAAP net income of $263 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $637 million, with an 11.3% margin. Management highlighted "industry-leading growth and profitability" and reaching a $20 billion annual revenue run rate.
**3. Optimistic Outlook for Q4 2025:** Carvana provided a positive forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting retail unit sales to exceed 150,000. Furthermore, the company anticipated its full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be at or above the high end of its previously communicated range of $2.0 billion to $2.2 billion.
**4. Multiple Analyst Upgrades and Raised Price Targets:** Throughout November and early December 2025, several prominent financial institutions upgraded Carvana's stock or reiterated "Buy" ratings with increased price targets. Notably, UBS upgraded CVNA to a "Strong-Buy" with a $450 price target on December 1, 2025. Other firms like Wedbush raised its price target to $400, and Barclays initiated coverage with an "overweight" rating and a $390 price target, contributing to positive market sentiment.
**5. Market Perception of Undervaluation Following Previous Sell-Offs:** The stock experienced a "notable 7.2% jump" as the market perceived that prior sell-offs were exaggerated, creating a buying opportunity. This positive shift in investor confidence was driven by a combination of strong Q3 results, robust operational performance, and a wave of bullish analyst coverage, indicating a favorable outlook for Carvana's continued growth and market share expansion in the used car sector.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CVNA Return | 160% | -3% | -98% | 1017% | 284% | 96% | 333% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 48% | -11% | 29% | 16% | 2% | 163% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CVNA Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 17% | 67% | 75% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 43% | 50% | 62% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CVNA Max Drawdown | -68% | -15% | -98% | -7% | -23% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -4% | -30% | -5% | -11% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ORLY, AZO, AN, LAD, KMX. See CVNA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CVNA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -99.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 9848.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 947 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -73.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 275.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -57.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 130 days | 120 days |
Compare to ORLY, AZO, AN, LAD, KMX
In The Past
Carvana's stock fell -99.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/10/2021. A -99.0% loss requires a 9848.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CVNA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Carvana
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 270.07 |
| Mkt Cap | 31.9 |
| Rev LTM | 22,653 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,633 |
| FCF LTM | 616 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 468 |
| CFO LTM | 937 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 760 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 31.9 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 13.1 |
| P/E | 24.0 |
| P/CFO | 30.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 64.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -10.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7192023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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