CrowdStrike (CRWD)
Market Price (5/11/2026): $526.11 | Market Cap: $132.9 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
CrowdStrike (CRWD)
Market Price (5/11/2026): $526.11Market Cap: $132.9 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Show more. | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -293 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.1% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 28x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 83x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% Key risksCRWD key risks include [1] its high stock valuation, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -293 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.1% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 28x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 83x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0% |
| Key risksCRWD key risks include [1] its high stock valuation, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong Q4 Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Performance and Upbeat Fiscal Year 2027 Outlook.
CrowdStrike reported non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.12 for Q4 FY26, exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $1.10. Quarterly revenue rose 23.8% year-over-year to $1.31 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.30 billion. The company's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) grew 24% year-over-year to $5.25 billion as of January 31, 2026, driven by a record $330.7 million in net new ARR for the quarter. CrowdStrike also delivered a record free cash flow of $376.4 million. Furthermore, the company provided strong guidance for fiscal year 2027, projecting total revenue between $5.868 billion and $5.928 billion, reflecting 22%-23% growth, and non-GAAP EPS in the range of $4.78-$4.90.
2. Accelerated Adoption of the Falcon Flex Subscription Model.
The robust adoption of CrowdStrike's Falcon Flex Subscription Model significantly contributed to its growth. In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) from Falcon Flex customers reached $1.69 billion, marking a substantial increase of over 120% year-over-year. This model allows customers greater flexibility in module selection and commitment, streamlining procurement and driving customer expansion.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 19.6% change in CRWD stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 441.40 | 527.77 | 19.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,565 | 4,812 | 5.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 24.3 | 27.7 | 14.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 251 | 253 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 19.6% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRWD | 19.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 29.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.1% | 37.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.8% change in CRWD stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 543.01 | 527.77 | -2.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,341 | 4,812 | 10.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 31.3 | 27.7 | -11.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 250 | 253 | -1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRWD | -2.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 37.5% |
| Sector (XLK) | 17.1% | 46.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.1% change in CRWD stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 428.87 | 527.77 | 23.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,954 | 4,812 | 21.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 26.8 | 27.7 | 3.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 247 | 253 | -2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 23.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRWD | 23.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 39.7% |
| Sector (XLK) | 68.1% | 48.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 339.6% change in CRWD stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026 was primarily driven by a 120.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5102026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 120.05 | 527.77 | 339.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,241 | 4,812 | 114.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 12.6 | 27.7 | 120.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 235 | 253 | -6.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 339.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/10/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CRWD | 339.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 52.6% |
| Sector (XLK) | 137.6% | 58.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CRWD Return | -3% | -49% | 142% | 34% | 37% | 8% | 139% |
| Peers Return | 66% | -44% | 75% | 12% | -1% | 1% | 81% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 95% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CRWD Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 83% | 67% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 69% | 33% | 63% | 57% | 53% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CRWD Max Drawdown | -18% | -51% | -10% | -15% | -10% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -48% | -10% | -17% | -18% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PANW, MSFT, S, ZS, FTNT. See CRWD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CRWD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.9% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -50.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 100.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 140 days |
In The Past
CrowdStrike's stock fell -31.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 45.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | CRWD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.9% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -30.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -50.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 100.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 140 days |
In The Past
CrowdStrike's stock fell -31.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 45.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About CrowdStrike (CRWD)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for CrowdStrike:
- Salesforce.com for cybersecurity
- A modern, enterprise-focused Symantec
AI Analysis | Feedback
- CrowdStrike Falcon Platform: A comprehensive, cloud-delivered security platform that provides protection across endpoints, cloud workloads, identity, and data.
- Threat Intelligence: Services offering insights into current and emerging cyber threats and adversaries.
- Managed Security Services: Outsourced services providing expert monitoring, management, and response to security incidents.
- IT Operations Management: Tools and services designed to streamline and optimize the management of IT infrastructure and operations.
- Threat Hunting: Proactive services dedicated to searching for and detecting advanced, hidden threats within an organization's environment.
- Zero Trust Identity Protection: Services implementing security principles to verify every user and device attempting to access resources, regardless of their location.
- Log Management: Services for collecting, storing, and analyzing security and operational log data to enhance visibility and aid in threat detection.
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CrowdStrike (CRWD) Major Customers
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. operates primarily on a business-to-business (B2B) model, providing its cloud-delivered cybersecurity solutions and services to a diverse range of companies and organizations worldwide.
Due to the sensitive nature of cybersecurity and common industry practices, CrowdStrike does not publicly disclose the specific names of its individual major customers. Furthermore, the company has consistently stated in its SEC filings that no single customer accounted for 10% or more of its total revenue in recent fiscal years, indicating a broad and diversified customer base rather than reliance on a few named major clients.
However, CrowdStrike's customer base spans various industries and organizational sizes. Its key customer categories, representing the types of organizations that utilize its Falcon platform and modules, include:
- Large Enterprises: Global corporations and multinational organizations across various sectors, requiring comprehensive protection for extensive and complex IT environments, including endpoints, cloud workloads, identity, and data.
- Small and Medium-sized Businesses (SMBs): Businesses that need enterprise-grade cybersecurity capabilities to defend against sophisticated threats, often without the extensive in-house security teams of larger corporations.
- Government Agencies: Federal, state, and local government entities that leverage CrowdStrike's solutions for advanced threat detection, prevention, and response to protect critical infrastructure and sensitive data.
- Financial Services: Banks, investment firms, and other financial institutions that face high volumes of cyberattacks and operate under strict regulatory compliance requirements.
- Healthcare Organizations: Hospitals, clinics, pharmaceutical companies, and other healthcare providers safeguarding patient data (PHI) and critical operational systems from breaches and ransomware.
- Technology Companies: Software providers, cloud service providers, and other firms within the technology sector that require robust security to protect their intellectual property, customer data, and SaaS platforms.
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- Amazon (AMZN)
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```htmlGeorge Kurtz, CEO and Founder
George Kurtz is the co-founder and CEO of CrowdStrike. An internationally recognized security expert, author, entrepreneur, and speaker, he has over 30 years of experience in the security space. Prior to co-founding CrowdStrike, Mr. Kurtz founded and served as CEO of Foundstone, a worldwide security products and services company that was acquired by McAfee in October 2004. He subsequently held roles at McAfee, a $2.5 billion security company, including Worldwide Chief Technology Officer, General Manager, and EVP of Enterprise.
Burt Podbere, Chief Financial Officer
Burt Podbere serves as the Chief Financial Officer at CrowdStrike, having joined in 2015. He has been instrumental in guiding the company's financial strategy through significant growth, including successfully leading its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in 2019. Mr. Podbere has a distinguished track record of guiding businesses through critical financial milestones, including multiple successful acquisitions and public offerings. Before joining CrowdStrike, he served as CFO at OpenDNS (acquired by Cisco) and Amobee (acquired by Singtel). He also held a CFO position at Net Optics, Inc.
Michael Sentonas, President
Michael Sentonas is the President of CrowdStrike, overseeing product and go-to-market functions. He previously served as the Chief Technology Officer (CTO) and Vice President of Technology Strategy at CrowdStrike. With over 20 years of experience in cybersecurity, Mr. Sentonas held multiple executive roles at McAfee (formerly Intel Security), including Chief Technology Officer – Security Connected and Chief Technology and Strategy Officer for Asia Pacific, prior to joining CrowdStrike in 2016.
Daniel Bernard, Chief Business Officer
Daniel Bernard was appointed Chief Business Officer at CrowdStrike in January 2023. In this role, he is responsible for driving revenue from the company's global channel and accelerating momentum in its partner ecosystem and SMB go-to-market strategy. Mr. Bernard previously served as Chief Marketing Officer at SentinelOne, bringing extensive experience with high-growth, disruptive cloud, and SaaS businesses to CrowdStrike.
Raj Rajamani, Chief Product Officer, DICE
Raj Rajamani joined CrowdStrike as Chief Product Officer, DICE (Data, Identity, Cloud, Endpoint) in January 2023. He is responsible for product strategy, management, and delivery across CrowdStrike's core platform offerings, including XDR, EDR, cloud security, identity threat protection, and data protection. Prior to CrowdStrike, Mr. Rajamani was the Chief Product Officer at SentinelOne and has held key product and technology leadership roles at McAfee, Marketo, and Cylance.
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The key risks to CrowdStrike's business are:1. Operational and Reputational Damage from Service Disruptions
CrowdStrike faces significant risk from service interruptions or software vulnerabilities, which can lead to widespread operational and reputational damage. A notable instance occurred on July 19, 2024, when a routine update to its Falcon software caused a global IT outage, affecting millions of Windows devices and leading to substantial disruption and financial losses for businesses worldwide. This incident highlighted vulnerabilities in interconnected digital systems, exposed clients to security weaknesses during downtime, and increased regulatory scrutiny on cybersecurity providers and third-party IT risk management. Such events can result in regulatory non-compliance risks, potential legal and financial repercussions, and a loss of customer trust.2. Intense Competition in the Cybersecurity Market
CrowdStrike operates in a highly dynamic and competitive cybersecurity landscape, facing significant competition from both established technology giants (such as Microsoft, Palo Alto Networks, and Cisco) and specialized security firms. The market is characterized by rapid innovation and evolving threat landscapes, demanding continuous adaptation. This intense competition can exert pressure on CrowdStrike's pricing, market share, and profitability, particularly if the company is unable to continually enhance its offerings and attract and retain customers.3. High Valuation and Macroeconomic Sensitivity
CrowdStrike's stock currently trades at a premium valuation, which exposes it to significant downside risk if growth expectations are not met or if broader macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. The company makes substantial investments in research and development and aggressively expands its sales force to capture market share, which can put pressure on near-term margins. A high valuation makes the company's stock particularly sensitive to any perceived slowdown in its impressive growth trajectory or negative shifts in market sentiment due to economic uncertainties, potentially leading to delayed purchasing decisions and elongated sales cycles.AI Analysis | Feedback
The aggressive expansion and integration of comprehensive security solutions by major technology platforms, most notably Microsoft, leveraging their existing operating system, cloud infrastructure, and identity management dominance to offer deeply integrated and potentially cost-effective alternatives to standalone cybersecurity vendors like CrowdStrike.
AI Analysis | Feedback
CrowdStrike (CRWD) operates within the global cybersecurity market, offering cloud-delivered protection across endpoints, cloud workloads, identity, and data, along with various security services.
The company has estimated its total addressable market (TAM) to be approximately $149 billion in 2026. This market is projected to expand significantly, reaching an estimated $325 billion by 2030.
These market size estimates encompass CrowdStrike's various offerings, including data protection, threat intelligence, identity protection, cloud security, observability, managed services, IT operations, and endpoint security.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for CrowdStrike (CRWD) over the next 2-3 years:- Expansion of the Falcon Platform and Module Adoption: CrowdStrike's strategy centers on enhancing and expanding its cloud-native Falcon platform to encompass a broader range of cybersecurity needs, including cloud security, identity protection, and data protection. The company aims to drive revenue growth by increasing the adoption of multiple modules within its existing customer base, encouraging platform consolidation and replacing legacy security tools. As of April 30, 2025, 48% of customers utilized six or more modules, an increase from the previous year, demonstrating a trend towards deeper platform adoption.
- AI-driven Innovation and Solutions: Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are core to CrowdStrike's innovation strategy, enhancing threat detection, response, and proactive threat hunting capabilities. The company views the "AI revolution" as a generational growth opportunity, leveraging AI within its entire platform and introducing AI-powered features like Charlotte AI to automate security operations. This focus on AI is expected to drive elevated demand for the Falcon platform and accelerate business growth.
- Growth of the Falcon Flex Subscription Model: The Falcon Flex subscription model is a significant driver of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth. This model allows customers to commit upfront and then dynamically adjust spending and adopt new modules without extensive procurement friction. This flexibility has led to deeper platform usage, larger deals, and a substantial increase in ARR from Flex accounts, which grew over 120% year-over-year in fiscal year 2026.
- Geographical Expansion: CrowdStrike is actively pursuing geographical expansion, particularly targeting international markets in regions such as Europe, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific. This strategy aims to broaden the company's global footprint, reach underserved customers, and capitalize on the increasing demand for advanced cybersecurity solutions worldwide.
- Strategic Acquisitions and New Product/Service Launches: CrowdStrike utilizes strategic acquisitions to integrate advanced security capabilities and expand its offerings. Recent acquisitions, such as SGNL.ai (identity security) and Seraphic Security (browser runtime security), are examples of how the company is broadening its service portfolio. The launch of new products and services, like Falcon ID for stronger multi-factor authentication, also contributes to revenue growth by expanding the platform's capabilities and addressing evolving threat landscapes.
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Share Repurchases
- CrowdStrike's board of directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $1 billion of its common stock on June 3, 2025.
- Between November 1, 2025, and March 2, 2026, the company repurchased 143,801 shares for $50.6 million under this program.
- As of March 3, 2026, $949.4 million remained available for future repurchases under the authorization.
Share Issuance
- CrowdStrike had a net common equity issued/repurchased of $104 million for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2025.
- The company reported a net common equity issued/repurchased of $85 million for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2024.
- In the fiscal year ending January 31, 2023, the net common equity issued/repurchased was $68 million.
Outbound Investments
- CrowdStrike completed the acquisition of SecureCircle in November 2021, expanding its Zero Trust security capabilities to data.
- Around November 2024, CrowdStrike announced its intent to acquire Adaptive Shield for approximately $300 million, aimed at enhancing identity-based protection across the cloud ecosystem.
- In February 2026, CrowdStrike acquired identity-security startup SGNL for $740 million.
Capital Expenditures
- CrowdStrike's capital expenditures amounted to -$370.9 million for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026.
- For the trailing twelve months ended October 2025, capital expenditures were -$356.05 million.
- Management anticipates capital expenditures to be 7%-8% of revenue in fiscal 2027, with a primary focus on scaling its cloud architecture for high-speed data processing and real-time analytics.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ADSK | Autodesk | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BSY | Bentley Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | BL | BlackLine | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.2% | 3.2% | -3.0% |
| 11302022 | CRWD | CrowdStrike | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 36.1% | 101.4% | -19.5% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 180.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 108.8 |
| Rev LTM | 5,961 |
| Op Inc LTM | 639 |
| FCF LTM | 1,838 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,572 |
| CFO LTM | 2,208 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,891 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 19.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 23.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 20.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 10.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 38.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 27.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 108.8 |
| P/S | 10.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 0.8 |
| P/E | 6.1 |
| P/CFO | 33.4 |
| Total Yield | 0.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 36.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 28.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 53.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 18.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 21.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -29.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $527.77 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 133.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/12/2019 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $425.68 | $457.99 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 24.0% | 15.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 55.3% | 42.6% |
| Downside Capture | -0.08 | 0.82 |
| Upside Capture | 120.78 | 143.29 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 22.3% | 38.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.62 | 0.64 | 1.14 | 1.29 | 1.34 | 1.58 |
| Up Beta | 0.06 | -0.18 | 0.29 | 0.78 | 1.09 | 1.41 |
| Down Beta | -8.84 | 0.55 | 1.39 | 1.56 | 1.02 | 1.48 |
| Up Capture | 157% | 153% | 130% | 112% | 157% | 953% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 29 | 38 | 67 | 133 | 413 |
| Down Capture | 215% | 50% | 150% | 152% | 148% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 14 | 26 | 58 | 118 | 339 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CRWD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWD | 22.7% | 42.9% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 63.9% | 20.8% | 2.27 | 49.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.0% | 12.5% | 1.83 | 40.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.8% | 27.0% | 1.22 | -2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.6% | 18.0% | 2.21 | 7.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.5% | 0.66 | -0.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.4% | 42.1% | -0.34 | 35.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CRWD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWD | 20.4% | 50.4% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 21.2% | 24.8% | 0.76 | 58.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 53.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.8% | 19.1% | 0.59 | 11.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 28.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 27.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CRWD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWD | 24.5% | 55.9% | 0.80 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLK) | 25.0% | 24.4% | 0.92 | 52.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 45.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.69 | 8.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 15.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.8% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 25.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 25.1% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/3/2026 | 4.2% | 11.5% | 0.5% |
| 12/2/2025 | 1.5% | 0.3% | -11.6% |
| 8/27/2025 | 4.6% | -2.4% | 13.9% |
| 6/3/2025 | -5.8% | -4.3% | 3.4% |
| 3/4/2025 | -6.3% | -15.5% | -4.8% |
| 11/26/2024 | -4.6% | -0.0% | -2.6% |
| 8/28/2024 | 2.8% | -2.9% | 8.2% |
| 6/4/2024 | 12.0% | 25.9% | 27.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 12 | 16 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 6.2% | 11.1% | 10.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -5.0% | -9.9% |
| Max Positive | 13.6% | 25.9% | 41.3% |
| Max Negative | -14.7% | -17.5% | -24.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 03/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/10/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 11/27/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/07/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/29/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 11/30/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 08/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 3/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2027 Annual recurring revenue | 5.50 Bil | 5.50 Bil | 5.50 Bil | ||||
| Q1 2027 Revenue | 1.36 Bil | 1.36 Bil | 1.36 Bil | 5.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.29 Bil for Q4 2026 | |
| Q1 2027 Operating Income | 308.00 Mil | 309.20 Mil | 310.40 Mil | -2.6% | Lower New | Guidance: 317.40 Mil for Q4 2026 | |
| Q1 2027 Net Income | 275.20 Mil | 276.15 Mil | 277.10 Mil | -2.9% | Lower New | Guidance: 284.35 Mil for Q4 2026 | |
| Q1 2027 EPS | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.07 | -3.2% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.1 for Q4 2026 | |
| 2027 Annual recurring revenue | 6.47 Bil | 6.49 Bil | 6.52 Bil | ||||
| 2027 Revenue | 5.87 Bil | 5.90 Bil | 5.93 Bil | 22.8% | Higher New | Actual: 4.80 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Operating Income | 1.42 Bil | 1.44 Bil | 1.46 Bil | 38.9% | Higher New | Actual: 1.04 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Net Income | 1.24 Bil | 1.26 Bil | 1.27 Bil | 32.0% | Higher New | Actual: 951.80 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2027 EPS | 4.78 | 4.84 | 4.9 | 30.4% | Higher New | Actual: 3.71 for 2026 | |
| 2027 Net new ARR growth | 20.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 20.0% for 2027 | |||
Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 12/2/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Revenue | 1.29 Bil | 1.29 Bil | 1.30 Bil | 6.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.21 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Non-GAAP income from operations | 315.40 Mil | 317.40 Mil | 319.40 Mil | 22.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 259.00 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Net Income | 282.10 Mil | 284.35 Mil | 286.60 Mil | 18.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 240.45 Mil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 EPS | 1.09 | 1.1 | 1.11 | 17.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.94 for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 4.80 Bil | 4.80 Bil | 4.81 Bil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 4.78 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP income from operations | 1.04 Bil | 1.04 Bil | 1.04 Bil | 1.8% | Raised | Guidance: 1.02 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Income | 949.60 Mil | 951.80 Mil | 954.00 Mil | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 938.20 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 EPS | 3.7 | 3.71 | 3.72 | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 3.66 for 2026 | |
| 2027 Net new ARR growth | 20.0% | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurtz, George | PRESIDENT AND CEO | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 466.93 | 2,500 | 1,167,335 | 1,021,194,554 | Form |
| 2 | Kurtz, George | PRESIDENT AND CEO | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 475.72 | 2,500 | 1,189,289 | 1,041,590,192 | Form |
| 3 | Podbere, Burt W | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 457.22 | 1,933 | 883,799 | 82,740,635 | Form |
| 4 | Kurtz, George | PRESIDENT AND CEO | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 468.56 | 2,882 | 1,350,402 | 1,027,102,720 | Form |
| 5 | Kurtz, George | PRESIDENT AND CEO | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 462.30 | 6,569 | 3,036,834 | 1,014,699,050 | Form |
CRWD Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
CrowdStrike earns a 'MARKET WEIGHT' rating. The company exhibits exceptional operational momentum, highlighted by a significant re-acceleration in Net New ARR. This justifies its premium valuation. However, the investment is balanced by a formidable and structural competitive threat from Microsoft's platform consolidation strategy, which creates a low/negative risk-reward skew at the current valuation. The thesis is a hold, pending clearer evidence of who is winning the war for the enterprise CIO.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
High-Beta CompounderCrowdStrike fits the 'High-Beta Compounder' archetype due to its high revenue growth (24% ARR growth), focus on a large and expanding TAM, and a premium valuation (P/S Ratio of 26.5) that is highly sensitive to growth durability and competitive positioning.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver of upside is CrowdStrike's demonstrated ability to expand beyond its core endpoint security market by cross-selling additional high-margin modules like Cloud Security, Identity Protection, and Next-Gen SIEM onto its unified Falcon platform. This strategy is proving successful, as these non-endpoint modules now represent over $1.9 billion in ARR and are growing faster than the core business, effectively increasing the company's total addressable market and wallet share within its existing enterprise customer base.
- New modules (Cloud Security, Identity, Next-Gen SIEM) collectively represent over $1.9 billion in ARR.
- Net New ARR accelerated to 47% YoY growth in Q4 FY26, indicating a significant pickup in new business and expansion momentum.
- Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate (NRR) is strong and accelerating, reaching 115% in Q4 FY26.
- The Falcon Flex subscription model, a key driver of module adoption, saw ARR grow over 120% YoY to $1.69 billion.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk is the structural threat from Microsoft, which is aggressively bundling its 'good-enough' security products into its broader E5 enterprise licenses. Microsoft is leveraging its dominant position on the desktop and in the enterprise to create a consolidated security platform via the Defender portal, pressuring customers to simplify their security stack and reduce costs. This poses a direct threat to CrowdStrike's position, particularly within the 'Consolidating CIO' segment which prioritizes efficiency and vendor reduction over best-in-class point solutions.
- Microsoft is mandating all Sentinel (SIEM) customers to access the service via the unified Microsoft Defender portal by July 2026, forcing a single-pane-of-glass experience.
- Microsoft's security revenue already exceeds $20 billion, giving it massive scale and distribution advantages.
- The 'Consolidating CIO' is a key customer profile where Microsoft is listed as the dominant player due to its ability to bundle solutions.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Net New ARR Growth (YoY) | > 25% | This is the primary leading indicator of business momentum. A sustained rate above 25% justifies a premium valuation. A drop below this level would signal that competition or market saturation is causing a material deceleration. |
| Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate (NRR) | > 115% | Measures the success of the 'land-and-expand' model. A stable or rising NRR above 115% confirms the platform's stickiness and cross-selling effectiveness. A decline would be an early warning of increased churn or reduced expansion within the customer base. |
| Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) Growth | > 30% | RPO represents future contracted revenue. Its growth rate should ideally track with new business momentum. The current divergence (38.5% RPO growth vs 47% Net New ARR growth) needs to be monitored closely as a potential leading indicator of a future revenue slowdown. |
Platform vs. Best-in-Class: The Microsoft Consolidation War
BULL VIEW
Net New ARR re-accelerating to 47% and a rising 115% NRR proves customers prioritize security efficacy, paying a premium and adopting more modules on the Falcon platform.
CORE TENSION
Can CrowdStrike's superior technology and performance outrun Microsoft's massive distribution and 'good-enough' security bundle, which is aggressively pushed on enterprise CIOs seeking vendor consolidation?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The 47% YoY acceleration in Net New ARR in Q4 FY26 is the primary evidence that CrowdStrike's sales momentum is currently winning against the competitive threat.
BEAR VIEW
Microsoft's forced Sentinel migration to its Defender portal by July 2026 will cause material churn and pricing pressure as enterprises choose the integrated, cost-effective E5 bundle.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
June 3, 2026 | Q1 FY27 Earnings Call Watch: Net New ARR growth vs. Q4's +47% and RPO growth vs. Q4's +38.5%. Any narrowing of this gap or deceleration below 30% in Net New ARR would be negative. |
July 2026 | Microsoft Sentinel Migration Deadline Watch: Qualitative commentary on Microsoft's subsequent earnings call citing 'vendor consolidation' wins, specifically mentioning security or Sentinel, and displacing competitors. |
August 1-6, 2026 | Black Hat USA 2026 Conference Watch: Palo Alto Networks' announcements regarding 'agentic AI' capabilities for its XSIAM platform. A significant technology leap could challenge CRWD's innovation narrative. |
Early September 2026 | Q2 FY27 Earnings Call Watch: Full-year FY27 ARR growth guidance. The key is whether they raise from the initial 23-24% range provided in March 2026. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Dec 3, 2025 | Q3 FY26 Earnings Details: Announced strong results including an increase in Dollar-Based Net Retention Rate to 114%. The stock saw a notable pullback the following day, suggesting high expectations were already priced in. | Fell notably by -2.1% $524.17 -> $513.12 |
Jan 6, 2026 | Executive Rule 10b5-1 Trading Plan Adoption Details: CEO George Kurtz and CFO Burt Podbere adopted pre-arranged trading plans. This provided context for subsequent insider sales, mitigating investor concerns about their motivations. | Flat (0.4%) $456.55 -> $458.32 |
Mar 5, 2026 | Q4 FY26 Earnings and FY27 Guidance Details: Reported record Net New ARR growth of 47% YoY to $331M and Ending ARR of $5.25B. Despite a beat, stock reaction was muted, divergent from narrative of after-hours weakness. | Flat (0.7%) $426.16 -> $428.99 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (3.7x S&P) with Spiking near-term fear. Although sentiment is Bullish, the premium valuation and explosive vol caps position size to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
ZS
INDUSTRYUnlike CRWD's direct endpoint war with Microsoft, Zscaler leads in Zero Trust network security (SASE), a different vector on cybersecurity growth with a more insulated competitive position.
PANW
INDUSTRYFor investors concerned CRWD may lose the platform war, PANW is a more diversified way to bet on the winner. It has a broader portfolio and a more advanced platform consolidation strategy.
Repricing Catalyst
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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