Tearsheet

Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP)


Market Price (11/7/2025): $69.0 | Market Cap: $62.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation

Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP)


Market Price (11/7/2025): $69.0
Market Cap: $62.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Rail Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.0%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79%
 
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 37%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 5.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.4 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.0%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 37%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 5.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.4 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 25%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

CP Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CP Return37%5%5%7%-8%-4%42%
Peers Return19%18%-10%-2%51%-6%76%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CP Win Rate75%42%33%58%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate55%42%32%48%45%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CP Max Drawdown-29%-6%-7%-6%-9%-7% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-5%-19%-27%-10%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNP, CSX, NSC, CNI, SWVL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/6/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-21.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven27.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven185 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-33.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven121 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-70.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven232.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1256 days1480 days

Compare to UNP, CSX, NSC, CNI, SWVL


In The Past

Canadian Pacific Kansas City's stock fell -21.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/24/2021. A -21.8% loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP)

Better Bets than Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.2%-9.2%-9.2%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-1.6%-1.6%-8.2%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-8.4%-8.4%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.2%0.2%-0.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.2%-9.2%-9.2%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-1.6%-1.6%-8.2%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-8.4%-8.4%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.2%0.2%-0.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Canadian Pacific Kansas City

Financials

CPUNPCSXNSCCNISWVLMedian
NameCanadian.Union Pa.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Swvl  
Mkt Price68.90217.9935.16280.7594.542.9981.72
Mkt Cap62.7129.165.563.058.8-63.0
Rev LTM15,02924,54614,12312,23017,1981814,576
Op Inc LTM5,5569,9704,8284,7556,482-55,192
FCF LTM2,3936,0131,5522,0993,444-2,393
FCF 3Y Avg2,2225,4342,5241,4933,558-2,524
CFO LTM5,4899,7274,6154,2496,817-5,489
CFO 3Y Avg4,9709,0275,0863,7766,919-5,086

Growth & Margins

CPUNPCSXNSCCNISWVLMedian
NameCanadian.Union Pa.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Swvl  
Rev Chg LTM4.0%1.1%-3.8%0.5%0.2%22.5%0.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg22.2%0.2%-1.0%-0.3%1.8%-0.2%
Rev Chg Q3.2%2.5%-0.9%1.7%1.3%123.4%2.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.8%0.6%-0.2%0.4%0.3%290.5%0.5%
Op Mgn LTM37.0%40.6%34.2%38.9%37.7%-28.5%37.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg35.7%39.3%36.5%38.6%38.4%-38.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.6%0.3%-0.7%-3.2%0.4%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM36.5%39.6%32.7%34.7%39.6%-36.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg36.9%37.1%35.0%30.9%40.5%-36.9%
FCF/Rev LTM15.9%24.5%11.0%17.2%20.0%-17.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.6%22.3%17.3%12.2%20.8%-17.3%

Valuation

CPUNPCSXNSCCNISWVLMedian
NameCanadian.Union Pa.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Swvl  
Mkt Cap62.7129.165.563.058.8-63.0
P/S4.25.34.65.23.4-4.6
P/EBIT10.012.514.213.68.4-12.5
P/E14.718.322.621.312.7-18.3
P/CFO11.413.314.214.88.6-13.3
Total Yield8.0%8.0%5.5%4.7%11.6%-8.0%
Dividend Yield1.2%2.5%1.1%0.0%3.7%-1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.1%3.9%3.9%2.6%5.3%-3.9%
D/E0.40.30.30.30.4-0.3
Net D/E0.40.20.30.20.4-0.3

Returns

CPUNPCSXNSCCNISWVLMedian
NameCanadian.Union Pa.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Swvl  
1M Rtn-11.4%-6.0%-2.3%-5.1%-2.5%-3.5%-4.3%
3M Rtn-8.4%-1.5%0.1%0.1%3.2%-23.7%-0.7%
6M Rtn-6.2%1.8%22.4%25.9%-5.3%-4.5%-1.4%
12M Rtn-11.5%-10.2%-3.2%3.0%-13.5%-17.9%-10.9%
3Y Rtn-8.4%19.2%22.5%27.0%-15.9%-75.4%5.4%
1M Excs Rtn-10.8%-5.8%-1.7%-4.9%-1.4%-6.1%-5.3%
3M Excs Rtn-13.1%-6.5%-5.5%-4.9%-2.1%-29.1%-6.0%
6M Excs Rtn-24.8%-16.9%3.7%7.3%-23.9%-23.1%-20.0%
12M Excs Rtn-28.7%-20.6%-10.6%-2.4%-27.7%-31.2%-24.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-79.4%-55.4%-48.0%-43.4%-88.6%-152.7%-67.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Rail transportation12,5558,8147,9957,7107,792
Total12,5558,8147,9957,7107,792


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,377,702
Short Interest: % Change Since 93020257.7%
Average Daily Volume2,741,072
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.97
Basic Shares Quantity910,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.8%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-0.8%-3.9% 
7/30/2025-2.9%1.0%0.7%
4/30/20250.4%1.9%12.7%
1/29/20251.2%-1.0%-1.2%
10/23/2024-0.4%-0.8%-4.6%
7/30/20242.1%-5.5%0.5%
4/24/2024-6.6%-10.6%-8.5%
1/30/20241.3%6.1%7.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161513
# Negative8911
Median Positive1.3%2.8%7.1%
Median Negative-1.0%-3.6%-3.7%
Max Positive5.1%7.1%13.4%
Max Negative-6.6%-10.6%-8.5%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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