ConocoPhillips (COP)
Market Price (11/19/2025): $89.62 | Market Cap: $111.6 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Market Price (11/19/2025): $89.62Market Cap: $111.6 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.3%, FCF Yield is 6.3% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.1 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, US Oilfield Technologies, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.3%, FCF Yield is 6.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, US Oilfield Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
COP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the -4.3% movement in ConocoPhillips (COP) stock from approximately July 31, 2025, to November 19, 2025:
1. ConocoPhillips announced a significant global workforce reduction. On September 3, 2025, ConocoPhillips revealed plans to cut 20% to 25% of its global workforce, impacting between 2,600 and 3,250 employees and contractors. This restructuring was aimed at boosting margins and reducing costs following the company's $17 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil in 2024 and rising controllable production costs. This news directly led to a 4.3% drop in ConocoPhillips' shares on September 3rd or 4th.
2. The company reported a year-over-year decline in third-quarter 2025 earnings. On November 6, 2025, ConocoPhillips announced third-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.7 billion, or $1.38 per share, a decrease compared to $2.1 billion, or $1.76 per share, in the third quarter of 2024. Although adjusted earnings of $1.61 per share surpassed analyst forecasts, the overall reported net income and earnings per share represented a decline from the previous year, which could have negatively impacted investor sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| COP Return | -36% | 87% | 74% | 2% | -12% | -6% | 75% |
| Peers Return | -29% | 50% | 64% | -15% | -2% | -8% | 34% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| COP Win Rate | 42% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 33% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 38% | 56% | 58% | 46% | 42% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| COP Max Drawdown | -65% | -1% | 0% | -20% | -16% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -67% | -17% | -1% | -28% | -16% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EOG, OKE, EPM, INDO, COP. See COP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/18/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | COP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -65.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 193.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 558 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 868 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1690 days | 1480 days |
Compare to EOG, OKE, EPM, INDO, COP
In The Past
ConocoPhillips's stock fell -33.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -33.5% loss requires a 50.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to COP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 21.2% | 21.2% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.1% | -1.1% | -5.7% |
| 10102025 | SLB | SLB | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.9% | 12.9% | 0.0% |
| 02292020 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.1% | 12.0% | -53.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 21.2% | 21.2% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.1% | -1.1% | -5.7% |
| 10102025 | SLB | SLB | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.9% | 12.9% | 0.0% |
| 02292020 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.1% | 12.0% | -53.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ConocoPhillips
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 79.56 |
| Mkt Cap | 51.5 |
| Rev LTM | 27,072 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,723 |
| FCF LTM | 3,406 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,965 |
| CFO LTM | 7,930 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,127 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 35.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 35.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 51.5 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 7.9 |
| P/E | 12.9 |
| P/CFO | 5.7 |
| Total Yield | 12.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -21.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -17.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -32.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -86.3% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -2.3% | 1.6% | |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.5% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.3% | 5.5% | 0.3% |
| 2/6/2025 | -0.3% | -1.8% | -8.8% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.4% | 10.3% | 5.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | -2.5% | -3.8% | 3.6% |
| 5/2/2024 | -1.7% | -1.0% | -5.6% |
| 2/8/2024 | 1.4% | -2.0% | 1.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 15 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 1.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -2.2% | -6.4% |
| Max Positive | 6.4% | 14.9% | 48.6% |
| Max Negative | -5.8% | -5.9% | -15.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
