Tearsheet

ConocoPhillips (COP)


Market Price (6/21/2026): $108.41 | Market Cap: $132.7 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

ConocoPhillips (COP)


Market Price (6/21/2026): $108.41
Market Cap: $132.7 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.9 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 15 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, US Oilfield Technologies, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57%

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.6%

Key risks
COP key risks include [1] integration challenges from the acquisition of Marathon Oil.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.6%, Dividend Yield is 3.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 18 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.9 Bil
2 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 15 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, US Oilfield Technologies, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.6%
7 Key risks
COP key risks include [1] integration challenges from the acquisition of Marathon Oil.

COP in ETFs

Weight = COP's share of each fund

SPY0.21%
VOO0.21%
IVV0.21%
VTI0.19%
ITOT0.18%
IWB0.19%
RSP0.17%
VTV0.53%
+32 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 6/18/2026

ConocoPhillips (COP) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Significant Decline in Global Oil Prices: Crude oil benchmarks, including Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), experienced a sharp decline in June 2026, with Brent crude dropping to $78.24 per barrel and WTI to $76 per barrel, reaching their lowest prices since March. This downturn was primarily triggered by a U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing prior geopolitical supply concerns that had driven Brent crude to a four-year high of $126 per barrel in late April 2026. ConocoPhillips' earnings are highly sensitive to these fluctuations in realized commodity prices, directly impacting its stock valuation.

2. Reduced Production Guidance and Increased Capital Expenditures: ConocoPhillips announced revised full-year 2026 production guidance on April 30, 2026, lowering it to a range of 2.29-2.325 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED) from its earlier forecast of 2.33-2.36 MMBOED. This reduction included approximately 20,000 boed due to the exclusion of Qatar volumes affected by the Iran conflict and an additional 15,000 boed impact from higher royalty rates at its Surmont oil sands project in Canada. Concurrently, the company increased its annual capital expenditures guidance for 2026 by $250 million, to between $12.0 billion and $12.5 billion. These updates, provided during the reporting of fiscal Q1 2026 results, contributed to investor apprehension despite the company beating analyst estimates for adjusted earnings per share and revenue.

Show more
Updated on 6/18/2026

ConocoPhillips (COP) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Significant Decline in Global Oil Prices: Crude oil benchmarks, including Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), experienced a sharp decline in June 2026, with Brent crude dropping to $78.24 per barrel and WTI to $76 per barrel, reaching their lowest prices since March. This downturn was primarily triggered by a U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing prior geopolitical supply concerns that had driven Brent crude to a four-year high of $126 per barrel in late April 2026. ConocoPhillips' earnings are highly sensitive to these fluctuations in realized commodity prices, directly impacting its stock valuation.

2. Reduced Production Guidance and Increased Capital Expenditures: ConocoPhillips announced revised full-year 2026 production guidance on April 30, 2026, lowering it to a range of 2.29-2.325 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED) from its earlier forecast of 2.33-2.36 MMBOED. This reduction included approximately 20,000 boed due to the exclusion of Qatar volumes affected by the Iran conflict and an additional 15,000 boed impact from higher royalty rates at its Surmont oil sands project in Canada. Concurrently, the company increased its annual capital expenditures guidance for 2026 by $250 million, to between $12.0 billion and $12.5 billion. These updates, provided during the reporting of fiscal Q1 2026 results, contributed to investor apprehension despite the company beating analyst estimates for adjusted earnings per share and revenue.

3. Substantial Insider Selling Activity: The period saw significant insider selling of ConocoPhillips stock, totaling approximately $91.2 million in shares sold over the last three months, with no corresponding buying activity. Notably, the Chairman and CEO, Ryan Michael Lance, executed sales exceeding $125 million in the last six months, including a transaction of $15 million worth of shares on March 31, 2026. This considerable volume of insider selling, well exceeding the USD 5 million threshold, can signal a lack of confidence among company executives regarding future stock performance.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -4.3% change in COP stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -7.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)22820266202026Change
Stock Price ($)112.62107.74-4.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)58,94458,188-1.3%
Net Income Margin (%)13.6%12.6%-7.1%
P/E Multiple17.418.03.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,2321,2240.7%
Cumulative Contribution-4.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2026 to 6/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
COP-4.3% 
Market (SPY)9.2%-51.7%
Sector (XLE)-3.2%88.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 23.3% change in COP stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 46.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)113020256202026Change
Stock Price ($)87.36107.7423.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)59,78858,188-2.7%
Net Income Margin (%)14.8%12.6%-15.0%
P/E Multiple12.318.046.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,2451,2241.7%
Cumulative Contribution23.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

11/30/2025 to 6/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
COP23.3% 
Market (SPY)9.9%-29.9%
Sector (XLE)20.7%89.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 30.4% change in COP stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 63.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)53120256202026Change
Stock Price ($)82.61107.7430.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)57,41458,1881.3%
Net Income Margin (%)16.6%12.6%-24.3%
P/E Multiple11.018.063.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,2731,2244.0%
Cumulative Contribution30.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2025 to 6/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
COP30.4% 
Market (SPY)28.1%-12.1%
Sector (XLE)36.1%89.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 19.8% change in COP stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 159.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)53120236202026Change
Stock Price ($)89.96107.7419.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)75,54358,188-23.0%
Net Income Margin (%)21.0%12.6%-40.0%
P/E Multiple6.918.0159.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1,2201,224-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution19.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2023 to 6/20/2026
ReturnCorrelation
COP19.8% 
Market (SPY)85.7%28.4%
Sector (XLE)54.8%89.6%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
COP Return87%74%2%-12%-2%21%244%
Peers Return91%75%-10%-5%3%23%263%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%8%98%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
COP Win Rate67%58%58%33%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate73%62%47%48%63%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
COP Max Drawdown-19%-33%-24%-27%-22%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-22%-27%-23%-24%-24%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: XOM, CVX, OXY, EOG, DVN. See COP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventCOPS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-17.0%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven20.5%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven139 days79 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-16.0%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven19.0%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven118 days31 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-61.7%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven161.4%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven352 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-27.1%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven37.2%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven1017 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-34.3%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven52.2%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven293 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-58.1%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven138.4%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven900 days15 days

Compare to XOM, CVX, OXY, EOG, DVN

In The Past

ConocoPhillips's stock fell -17.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventCOPS&P 500
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-61.7%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven161.4%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven352 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-27.1%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven37.2%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven1017 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-34.3%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven52.2%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven293 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-58.1%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven138.4%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven900 days15 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-59.0%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven144.0%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven731 days1085 days

Compare to XOM, CVX, OXY, EOG, DVN

In The Past

ConocoPhillips's stock fell -17.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About ConocoPhillips (COP)

ConocoPhillips (COP) is a global independent energy company primarily focused on the exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of a diverse range of hydrocarbon resources. Its core activities involve discovering new reserves and extracting crude oil, natural gas, and their derivatives from various geological formations across the world.

The company's main products include crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs). ConocoPhillips utilizes diverse production methods, operating in both conventional assets and unconventional plays such as shale gas, heavy oil, and oil sands. Its extensive portfolio spans North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia, encompassing significant unconventional resources in North America and oil sands assets in Canada, along with various LNG developments.

ConocoPhillips's energy commodities are sold into global markets. Its primary customers are typically large-scale energy buyers such as refineries, utility companies, industrial consumers, and other energy distributors who rely on these resources for fuel, electricity generation, and a multitude of industrial processes worldwide.

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  • The Rio Tinto of crude oil and natural gas.
  • Like BHP Billiton, but focused solely on extracting oil and natural gas.

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  • Crude Oil: A naturally occurring flammable liquid consisting of hydrocarbons, primarily used as a fuel and for the production of petrochemicals.
  • Bitumen: A thick, sticky, black mixture of hydrocarbons, often a byproduct of petroleum distillation or found in natural deposits like oil sands.
  • Natural Gas: A fossil fuel composed primarily of methane, used as a significant energy source for heating, electricity generation, and industrial processes.
  • Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Natural gas that has been cooled to a liquid state, making it easier to transport and store.
  • Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): Hydrocarbons, such as ethane, propane, butane, and pentane, that are separated from natural gas and used as fuels or petrochemical feedstocks.

AI Analysis | Feedback

ConocoPhillips (COP) primarily sells its products to other companies rather than individual consumers. Due to the nature of its business as a global explorer and producer of crude oil, natural gas, and related products, ConocoPhillips sells commodities that are traded on global markets or via numerous contracts with a wide array of industrial and energy sector buyers. As such, specific "major customer companies" are generally not publicly disclosed due to competitive and commercial confidentiality.

However, the following categories represent the primary types of companies that purchase ConocoPhillips's products:

  • Refineries and Petrochemical Companies: These companies purchase crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) as feedstocks for processing into refined products like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and various petrochemicals. Examples of companies in this category include integrated oil majors (e.g., ExxonMobil, Shell) and independent refiners (e.g., Valero, Marathon Petroleum).
  • Natural Gas and LNG Buyers (Utilities, Power Generators, Industrial Users): These customers purchase natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for a variety of purposes. This includes natural gas distribution utilities, power generation companies that use natural gas as fuel for electricity production, and various industrial users that consume natural gas as fuel or feedstock in their manufacturing processes.
  • Commodity Traders and Other Energy Companies: Large trading houses and other energy companies often purchase crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs for further distribution, blending, or resale on the global commodity markets.

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Ryan M. Lance, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Ryan M. Lance has served as chairman and chief executive officer of ConocoPhillips since May 2012. He is a petroleum engineer with over four decades of experience in the oil and natural gas industry. His career includes senior management and technical positions with ConocoPhillips, Phillips Petroleum, and various divisions of ARCO. His executive assignments at ConocoPhillips have included responsibility for international exploration and production, regional oversight for Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and North America, and leadership in technology, major projects, downstream strategy, integration, and specialty functions. He began his career with ARCO Alaska in 1984.

Andy O'Brien, Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President, Strategy & Commercial

Andy O'Brien will become Chief Financial Officer of ConocoPhillips, effective June 1, 2025. He will also retain responsibility for Strategy, Commercial and Sustainability. O'Brien has over 25 years of experience in the oil and gas industry, having started his career with predecessor company Conoco in 1997 as a financial analyst. He has held various leadership roles in finance, planning, global operations, treasury, corporate planning and development, and investor relations across the U.K., Canada, Alaska, Indonesia, and Houston. He previously served as Senior Vice President, Strategy, Commercial, Sustainability and Technology.

Timothy A. Leach, Director

Timothy A. Leach is a director at ConocoPhillips and brings over 40 years of experience in the oil and natural gas industry. Prior to joining ConocoPhillips, he served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Concho Resources Inc. from its formation in February 2006 until its acquisition by ConocoPhillips in January 2021. During his tenure at Concho, he also served as president from 2009 to 2017. Earlier in his career, Mr. Leach led other Permian Basin-focused energy companies, including privately-held predecessors to Concho, and held executive roles at Parker & Parsley.

Nicholas Olds, Executive Vice President, Lower 48

Nicholas Olds serves as Executive Vice President, Lower 48, at ConocoPhillips.

Kelly Rose, Senior Vice President, Legal, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary

Kelly Rose holds the position of Senior Vice President, Legal, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary at ConocoPhillips.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to ConocoPhillips (COP) are:
  1. Commodity Price Volatility: As an independent exploration and production (E&P) company, ConocoPhillips' revenues, operating results, and future growth are highly dependent on the prices received for crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. These prices can fluctuate significantly due to global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and economic conditions, directly impacting profitability and cash flow.
  2. Environmental and Regulatory Risks (including Climate Policy): The oil and gas industry faces increasing scrutiny and stricter environmental regulations due to concerns over climate change and environmental degradation. ConocoPhillips is exposed to risks such as potential carbon taxes, fees, emissions trading schemes, and greenhouse gas reduction mandates that could significantly increase product costs and reduce demand for its products. Failure to adapt or comply with these evolving regulations can lead to substantial financial penalties and reputational damage.
  3. Operational Risks and Capital Intensity: ConocoPhillips' business involves complex and often hazardous operations, including exploration, production, and transportation of hydrocarbons. This inherently carries operational risks such as accidents, equipment failures, and natural disasters, which can lead to disruptions, environmental damage, and significant financial losses. Furthermore, the industry is capital-intensive, requiring substantial investments in exploration, production, and infrastructure, with risks of project inflation and an inability to find or replace commercial quantities of hydrocarbons.

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The accelerating global energy transition, driven by the rapid adoption of electric vehicles and the increasing deployment of renewable energy sources for power generation, poses a clear emerging threat. This systemic shift aims to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, directly impacting long-term demand for crude oil, natural gas, and related products that constitute ConocoPhillips' core business.

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ConocoPhillips (COP) operates within significant addressable markets for its main products and services, including crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs).

Crude Oil

  • The global crude oil market size was estimated at 101.40 million barrels per day (MB/d) in 2025. This is projected to reach approximately 110.90 MB/d by 2035, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.90% from 2026 to 2035.
  • In monetary terms, the global crude oil market size is estimated to grow from $3,050.95 billion in 2025 to $3,188.67 billion in 2026, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.5%.
  • Global oil demand is expected to be 103.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and is projected to reach 104.5 mb/d in 2026.
  • Global oil supply is anticipated to increase to 106.1 mb/d in 2025 and is expected to rise to 108.5 mb/d in 2026.

Bitumen

  • The global bitumen market was valued at USD 73.35 billion in 2024. It is projected to grow from USD 75.60 billion in 2025 to USD 98.62 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.9% during the forecast period. Other estimates place the global bitumen market at approximately USD 60.02 billion in 2026 and USD 112.01 billion by 2026.
  • In terms of volume, the global bitumen market is expected to grow from 133.95 million tons in 2025 to 140.9 million tons in 2026.
  • North America's bitumen market size was approximately USD 34.48 million in 2025. The United States alone consumes over 28 million tons of bitumen annually.

Natural Gas

  • The global natural gas market was valued at $1,478.66 billion in 2025 and is projected to increase to $1,591.93 billion in 2026, growing at a CAGR of 7.7%.
  • Global natural gas consumption reached 2,902 billion cubic meters (bcm) for the initial ten months of 2025. Global natural gas production for the same period was 3,506 bcm.
  • U.S. marketed natural gas production achieved a record 118.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025. Natural gas demand in North America is forecast to remain broadly flat in 2026.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

  • The global LNG market size is projected to grow from USD 117.8 billion in 2025 to USD 228.83 billion by 2032. Another source indicates the global LNG market size was valued at USD 171.69 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 227.28 billion by 2032.
  • Global LNG production capacity is estimated at 553.16 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) in 2026, up from 511 MTPA in 2025.
  • Global LNG demand is forecast to rise to about 441 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2026. The global supply of LNG is expected to rise to 475 million tonnes in 2026.
  • The United States was the largest global LNG exporter in 2025, selling 111 million metric tonnes. North America is expected to drive the vast majority of the 40 bcm increase in global LNG supply in 2026. The U.S. market share in the global LNG market is projected to increase from around 25% in 2025 to approximately 33% by the end of the decade.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

  • The global natural gas liquids (NGLs) market size was estimated at USD 16.3 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 17.2 billion in 2026. Other estimates for the global NGL market size include USD 26.98 billion in 2026 and USD 15.92 billion in 2025, growing to USD 24.24 billion by 2033.
  • The U.S. NGL processing industry revenue reached $99.5 billion in 2025. North America held the largest volume share of the natural gas liquids market in 2025, at 37.10%.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for ConocoPhillips (COP) over the next 2-3 years:

  1. Expansion of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Operations: ConocoPhillips is actively expanding its global LNG portfolio, which is expected to be a significant driver of future revenue. This includes long-term sales and purchase agreements for LNG from projects such as Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 (expected to start up in 2027) and Phase 2 in Texas, as well as the Rio Grande LNG project. The company aims to grow its controlled portfolio supply to between 10 and 15 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). The North Field East (NFE) project in Qatar is also expected to begin contributing to revenue in 2026.
  2. Increased Production Volumes from Key Projects: Growth in hydrocarbon production, particularly from its advantaged Lower 48 assets and the Willow project in Alaska, is anticipated to contribute to revenue. ConocoPhillips reported 2.5% underlying production growth in 2025 and has provided 2026 production guidance of 2.33 to 2.36 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED). The Willow development in Alaska is specifically highlighted as a key project that will support future production growth.
  3. Cost Reductions and Capital Efficiency Improvements: While not a direct revenue driver, the company's focus on driving significant reductions in capital expenditures and operating costs will enhance profitability and free cash flow, which can then be reinvested for growth or returned to shareholders. ConocoPhillips targets a $1 billion reduction in capital and costs in 2026, contributing to an expected $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029, including $1 billion annually from 2026 through 2028. This improved capital efficiency positions the company to maintain resilience across commodity cycles.
  4. Synergies from the Marathon Oil Acquisition: The integration of Marathon Oil Corporation is expected to deliver substantial cost synergies, with a target of $2 billion by 2026. These synergies, coupled with drilling and completion efficiency gains in the Lower 48, will contribute to a more efficient operating model and support improved financial performance, indirectly bolstering net revenue and profitability.

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Share Repurchases

  • ConocoPhillips increased its current share redemption package to up to $20 billion in November 2024.
  • The company repurchased $5.46 billion in common stock in 2024 and $5.40 billion in 2023.
  • In 2025, ConocoPhillips distributed $5.0 billion through share repurchases.

Outbound Investments

  • ConocoPhillips acquired Marathon Oil for $22.5 billion in 2024.
  • The company is on track to meet a $5 billion disposition target by year-end 2026, having executed over $3.0 billion in dispositions in 2025.
  • A significant disposition included the sale of Anadarko Basin assets for $1.3 billion in October 2025.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures were $12.12 billion in 2024 and $11.25 billion in 2023.
  • Expected capital expenditures for 2025 are between $12.3 billion and $12.6 billion, with preliminary guidance for 2026 at approximately $12 billion.
  • Primary focus areas for capital expenditures include projects such as the Willow Project in Alaska, with an updated capital guidance of $8.5 billion to $9.0 billion, and various LNG developments.

Better Bets vs. ConocoPhillips (COP)

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

COPXOMCVXOXYEOGDVNMedian
NameConocoPh.Exxon Mo.Chevron Occident.EOG Reso.Devon En. 
Mkt Price107.74137.81173.6351.82129.9842.12118.86
Mkt Cap131.9579.1343.851.369.125.9100.5
Rev LTM58,188326,008185,88720,02023,49816,54340,843
Op Inc LTM10,51129,43915,5993,1727,6483,1169,080
FCF LTM5,85318,79213,7813,3663,9662,4234,910
FCF 3Y Avg7,60226,36115,2334,7374,6891,5056,170
CFO LTM17,97647,72231,2649,66510,7216,42414,348
CFO 3Y Avg19,59251,57532,11610,89711,0796,61115,336

Growth & Margins

COPXOMCVXOXYEOGDVNMedian
NameConocoPh.Exxon Mo.Chevron Occident.EOG Reso.Devon En. 
Rev Chg LTM1.3%-4.1%-3.7%-7.9%0.5%-1.5%-2.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-7.2%-5.8%-6.9%-15.7%-5.7%-3.8%-6.4%
Rev Chg Q-4.6%2.6%3.2%-8.3%15.7%-14.5%-1.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.3%0.6%0.8%-2.3%4.1%-3.8%-0.3%
Op Inc Chg LTM-22.5%-25.6%-9.6%-37.5%-8.1%-28.7%-24.0%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-21.9%-23.8%-26.2%-25.3%-15.3%-25.0%-24.4%
Op Mgn LTM18.1%9.0%8.4%15.8%32.5%18.8%17.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg22.6%10.9%10.0%19.0%35.2%24.9%20.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.2%-1.4%-0.6%-1.7%0.4%-3.6%-1.3%
CFO/Rev LTM30.9%14.6%16.8%48.3%45.6%38.8%34.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg34.4%15.5%16.8%51.3%47.3%41.1%37.8%
FCF/Rev LTM10.1%5.8%7.4%16.8%16.9%14.6%12.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.4%7.9%8.0%22.2%20.0%9.7%11.5%

Valuation

COPXOMCVXOXYEOGDVNMedian
NameConocoPh.Exxon Mo.Chevron Occident.EOG Reso.Devon En. 
Mkt Cap131.9579.1343.851.369.125.9100.5
P/S2.31.81.82.62.91.62.1
P/Op Inc12.519.722.016.29.08.314.4
P/EBIT10.315.517.715.59.57.512.9
P/E18.022.931.210.812.611.415.3
P/CFO7.312.111.05.36.44.06.9
Total Yield8.6%7.3%7.1%9.2%11.1%11.1%8.9%
Dividend Yield3.1%3.0%3.9%0.0%3.1%2.4%3.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.2%5.0%4.8%8.8%6.4%4.6%5.1%
D/E0.20.10.10.30.10.30.2
Net D/E0.10.10.10.20.10.30.1

Returns

COPXOMCVXOXYEOGDVNMedian
NameConocoPh.Exxon Mo.Chevron Occident.EOG Reso.Devon En. 
1M Rtn-10.6%-11.3%-9.1%-11.5%-7.1%-10.0%-10.3%
3M Rtn-14.5%-13.1%-13.1%-14.2%-5.6%-12.8%-13.1%
6M Rtn19.0%19.7%19.8%32.0%29.7%19.0%19.7%
12M Rtn17.6%24.0%21.0%15.9%7.4%26.0%19.3%
3Y Rtn14.7%46.7%27.2%-4.9%30.3%-4.7%20.9%
1M Excs Rtn-15.9%-17.2%-14.0%-16.2%-11.9%-16.6%-16.1%
3M Excs Rtn-27.4%-25.8%-26.5%-26.2%-19.2%-26.6%-26.4%
6M Excs Rtn10.2%11.5%10.3%24.1%19.6%11.2%11.4%
12M Excs Rtn-8.8%-0.6%-3.8%-10.3%-17.4%-0.9%-6.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-56.7%-28.6%-47.4%-78.7%-43.5%-77.8%-52.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment58,94454,74556,14178,49445,828
Total58,94454,74556,14178,49445,828


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20012000199919981997
Exploration and Production1,6994,7481,7049841,316
Refining, Marketing, and Transportation438534   
Gas Gathering, Processing, Marketing101103   
Chemicals-128119293297371
Gas Gathering, Processing, and Marketing  247163161
Refining, Marketing and Transportation  220361190
Total2,1105,5042,4641,8052,038


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20122010200920082007
Lower 48 and Latin America28,895    
Asia Pacific and Middle East23,721    
Canada22,308    
Europe15,562    
Alaska10,950    
Discontinued operations7,467    
Corporate and Other6,82312,1662,1482,666 
Other International1,418    
Chemicals 2,7322,4512,2172,225
E&P 98,693100,95395,874 
Emerging Businesses 9641,0699241,230
LUKOIL Investment* 1,129   
Midstream 2,5062,0541,4552,016
R&M 38,12437,04734,27437,869
LUKOIL Investment  6,8665,45511,164
Exploration and Production    120,141
Total117,144156,314152,588142,865174,645


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$107.74 
Market Cap ($ Bil)131.9 
First Trading Date12/31/1981 
Distance from 52W High-18.9% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$118.68$103.84
DMA Trendupdown
Distance from DMA-9.2%3.8%
 3M1YR
Volatility33.8%29.7%
Downside Capture-114.05-61.40
Upside Capture-111.26-25.43
Correlation (SPY)-51.2%-11.7%
COP Betas & Captures as of 5/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-1.72-2.10-1.25-0.75-0.230.57
Up Beta-2.15-2.44-1.65-1.20-0.640.64
Down Beta-2.04-1.96-0.700.110.531.08
Up Capture-146%-109%-72%-30%-5%7%
Bmk +ve Days13283667141432
Stock +ve Days7193467131383
Down Capture-138%-314%-195%-202%-110%45%
Bmk -ve Days7132757109318
Stock -ve Days13222957119368

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with COP
COP16.6%29.6%0.52-
Sector ETF (XLE)25.3%20.9%0.9889.4%
Equity (SPY)26.5%12.4%1.61-12.4%
Gold (GLD)24.2%27.5%0.77-7.9%
Commodities (DBC)19.8%18.8%0.8357.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)11.0%13.7%0.520.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-40.0%42.5%-1.088.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with COP
COP16.9%32.8%0.53-
Sector ETF (XLE)18.5%26.1%0.6491.3%
Equity (SPY)13.5%17.1%0.6233.8%
Gold (GLD)17.1%18.3%0.768.4%
Commodities (DBC)7.5%19.4%0.2960.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.9%18.9%0.0023.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)11.0%54.2%0.4011.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with COP
COP12.4%37.7%0.42-
Sector ETF (XLE)8.9%29.6%0.3490.8%
Equity (SPY)15.3%18.0%0.7349.6%
Gold (GLD)12.3%16.1%0.633.0%
Commodities (DBC)5.9%18.0%0.2659.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.3%20.7%0.2238.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)60.0%66.8%1.0012.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date5292026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity22.3 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 5152026-20.2%
Average Daily Volume6.6 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity1,224.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.8%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/3/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/30/2026-1.9%-7.3%-10.5%
2/5/2026-2.4%3.4%9.7%
11/6/2025-2.3%1.6%6.9%
8/7/2025-0.5%3.0%0.7%
5/8/20251.3%5.5%0.3%
2/6/2025-0.3%-1.8%-8.8%
10/31/20246.4%10.3%5.9%
8/1/2024-2.5%-3.8%3.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91416
# Negative15108
Median Positive1.4%4.0%7.0%
Median Negative-1.7%-2.9%-6.4%
Max Positive6.4%14.9%48.6%
Max Negative-5.8%-7.3%-10.5%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/30/2026-1.9%-7.3%-10.5%
2/5/2026-2.4%3.4%9.7%
11/6/2025-2.3%1.6%6.9%
8/7/2025-0.5%3.0%0.7%
5/8/20251.3%5.5%0.3%
2/6/2025-0.3%-1.8%-8.8%
10/31/20246.4%10.3%5.9%
8/1/2024-2.5%-3.8%3.6%
5/2/2024-1.7%-1.0%-5.6%
2/8/20241.4%-2.0%1.3%
11/2/20234.6%-1.9%-0.7%
8/3/2023-0.5%0.7%3.4%
5/4/20231.3%4.6%7.1%
2/2/2023-5.4%-5.9%-7.3%
11/3/20225.8%-1.0%-3.1%
8/4/2022-1.6%5.1%18.3%
5/5/2022-1.0%-4.6%14.2%
2/3/2022-1.5%0.8%9.3%
11/2/2021-2.1%1.8%-7.2%
8/3/20212.3%0.1%0.3%
5/4/2021-0.3%8.1%12.7%
2/2/20210.6%14.9%33.0%
10/29/20201.3%5.5%48.6%
7/30/2020-5.8%-4.8%-4.5%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91416
# Negative15108
Median Positive1.4%4.0%7.0%
Median Negative-1.7%-2.9%-6.4%
Max Positive6.4%14.9%48.6%
Max Negative-5.8%-7.3%-10.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202502/17/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/18/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/15/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/16/202310-K
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q
06/30/202208/04/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202502/17/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/07/202510-Q
03/31/202505/08/202510-Q
12/31/202402/18/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/15/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/16/202310-K
09/30/202211/03/202210-Q
06/30/202208/04/202210-Q
03/31/202205/05/202210-Q
12/31/202102/17/202210-K
09/30/202111/04/202110-Q
06/30/202108/05/202110-Q
03/31/202105/06/202110-Q
12/31/202002/16/202110-K
09/30/202011/03/202010-Q
06/30/202008/04/202010-Q
03/31/202005/05/202010-Q
12/31/201902/18/202010-K
09/30/201910/31/201910-Q
06/30/201908/01/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 5/31/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Production2.19 Mil2.20 Mil2.21 Mil-5.2% Lower NewGuidance: 2.32 Mil for Q1 2026
2026 Production2.29 Mil2.31 Mil2.33 Mil-1.5% LoweredGuidance: 2.35 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital Expenditures12.00 Bil12.25 Bil12.50 Bil2.1% RaisedGuidance: 12.00 Bil for 2026

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Production2.30 Mil2.32 Mil2.34 Mil  Higher New
2026 Capital Expenditures 12.00 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 12.00 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted Operating Costs 10.20 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 10.20 Bil for 2026
2026 Production2.33 Mil2.35 Mil2.36 Mil  Higher New
2026 Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization11.70 Bil11.80 Bil11.90 Bil  Higher New
2026 Adjusted Corporate and Other Segment Net Loss 900.00 Mil   Higher New

Insider Activity

Updated 6/16/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Mulligan, Sharmila DirectSell6102026119.001,974  Form
2Lance, Ryan MichaelChairman and CEOLance Family TrustSell3312026132.71113,22115,025,38946,447,975Form
3Rose, Kelly BrunettiSVP & General CounselDirectSell3252026130.037,7001,001,2123,287,615Form
4Olds, Nicholas GExecutive Vice PresidentDirectSell3232026127.066,994888,651685,483Form
5Lance, Ryan MichaelChairman and CEODirectSell3232026127.26506,80064,493,594869,798Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Mulligan, Sharmila DirectSell6102026119.001,974  Form
2Lance, Ryan MichaelChairman and CEOLance Family TrustSell3312026132.71113,22115,025,38946,447,975Form
3Rose, Kelly BrunettiSVP & General CounselDirectSell3252026130.037,7001,001,2123,287,615Form
4Olds, Nicholas GExecutive Vice PresidentDirectSell3232026127.066,994888,651685,483Form
5Lance, Ryan MichaelChairman and CEODirectSell3232026127.26506,80064,493,594869,798Form
6Hrap, Heather GSenior Vice PresidentDirectSell3162026119.682,654317,631677,748Form
7Lundquist, Andrew DSenior Vice PresidentDirectSell3162026119.6834,5004,128,9602,090,690Form
8Olds, Nicholas GExecutive Vice PresidentDirectSell3162026119.3614,5221,733,3761,478,777Form
9Olds, Nicholas GExecutive Vice PresidentDirectSell3122026116.3612,1501,413,8353,131,499Form
10Leach, Timothy A DirectSell3092026118.7940,0004,751,68448,848,618Form
11Lance, Ryan MichaelChairman and CEODirectSell1223202592.50500,70846,315,49030,152,410Form
12McRaven, William H DirectBuy1110202586.685,768500,000500,000Form
13Johnson, Kirk LExecutive Vice PresidentDirectBuy617202594.245,300499,4721,369,024Form
Core Cache Last Updated: 6/20/2026