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ConocoPhillips (COP)

Market Price (11/5/2025): $87.95 | Market Cap: $110.6 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

ConocoPhillips (COP)

Market Price (11/5/2025): $87.95
Market Cap: $110.6 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.3%, FCF Yield is 6.3%		 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97%		 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.6%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.9 Bil		  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%		  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.3%, FCF Yield is 6.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.9 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.6%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

COPS&P 500
REVENUE GROWTH 
Rev LTM ($ Bil)57.8
Rev Chg Q2.8%6.6%
Rev Chg LTM2.4%5.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.6%5.3%
PROFITABILITYGOOD
Op Inc LTM ($ Bil)12.7
CFO LTM ($ Bil)19.8
Net Inc LTM ($ Bil)9.2
Op Mgn LTM22.0%18.8%
CFO/Rev LTM34.3%20.3%
Net Inc Mgn15.9%12.8%
VALUATIONLOW
P/S1.93.2
P/CFO5.615.3
P/FCF16.020.3
P/E12.023.7
STABILITYGOOD
Debt/Equity0.210.21
Cash/Assets0.040.07

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

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COP Stock

   
   
   
   
   
   
   
Factor Drivers of Stock Movement
The 2.0% change in COP stock from 5/6/2025 to 11/4/2025 was primarily driven by a 6.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

506202511042025Change
Stock Price ($)86.1887.912.01%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)54745.0057798.005.58%
Net Income Margin (%)16.89%15.89%-5.90%
P/E Multiple11.2612.046.92%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1207.631257.51-4.13%
Cumulative Contribution1.83%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown
The -16.6% change in COP stock from 11/4/2024 to 11/4/2025 was primarily driven by a -11.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).

1104202411042025Change
Stock Price ($)105.4687.91-16.64%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)55238.0057798.004.63%
Net Income Margin (%)18.01%15.89%-11.74%
P/E Multiple12.3112.04-2.26%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1161.321257.51-8.28%
Cumulative Contribution-17.21%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown
The -26.6% change in COP stock from 11/5/2022 to 11/4/2025 was primarily driven by a -33.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).

1105202211042025Change
Stock Price ($)119.7187.91-26.56%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)75056.0057798.00-22.99%
Net Income Margin (%)24.06%15.89%-33.95%
P/E Multiple8.3912.0443.42%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1265.891257.510.66%
Cumulative Contribution-26.57%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown
Why The Stock Moved

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

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Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
COP Return-36%87%74%2%-12%-9%72%
Peers Return-32%53%55%-9%9%-13%39%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
COP Win Rate42%67%58%58%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate40%60%60%48%47%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
COP Max Drawdown-65%-1%0%-20%-16%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-69%-14%-3%-25%-13%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EOG, OKE, EPM, INDO, COP. See COP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCOPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven91 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-65.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven193.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven558 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-36.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven868 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven172.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1690 days1480 days

Compare to EOG, OKE, EPM, INDO, COP


In The Past

ConocoPhillips's stock fell -33.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -33.5% loss requires a 50.4% gain to breakeven.

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About ConocoPhillips (COP)

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

  • Imagine the part of ExxonMobil that *only* explores for and extracts oil and natural gas – that's essentially ConocoPhillips.
  • They are a pure-play global oil and natural gas producer, similar to the part of Chevron or BP that finds and extracts oil, but without any refineries or gas stations.

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

  • Crude Oil: A naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product extracted from the Earth, primarily used as a fuel source and raw material for various products.
  • Natural Gas: A naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture, consisting primarily of methane, extracted and used as a major fuel source.
  • Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): Hydrocarbon components that are separated from natural gas in liquid form, including ethane, propane, butane, and natural gasoline, which have various industrial and fuel uses.

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

ConocoPhillips (COP), as a major upstream oil and gas exploration and production company, sells primarily to other companies (business-to-business or B2B) rather than directly to individual consumers. Its major customers are typically other energy companies that purchase, transport, process, or market crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs).

Based on their operational structure and financial reporting, ConocoPhillips' customers fall into several categories. While specific contractual customer names are generally not publicly disclosed, below are the major customer categories and illustrative examples of public companies that operate within these sectors and frequently purchase commodities from producers like ConocoPhillips:

  • Refiners: Companies that purchase crude oil to refine it into various petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other petrochemical feedstocks.
    • Valero Energy (VLO)
    • Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
    • Phillips 66 (PSX) (Note: Phillips 66 was spun off from ConocoPhillips in 2012, and while distinct, operates in the refining and marketing sector.)
    • ExxonMobil (XOM)
    • Chevron (CVX)
  • Natural Gas Utilities, Power Generators, and Industrial Users: Entities that purchase natural gas for distribution to residential and commercial customers, for electricity generation in power plants, or as a direct fuel/feedstock for industrial processes.
    • Kinder Morgan (KMI) (primarily a midstream company, but also sells natural gas)
    • Duke Energy (DUK)
    • Southern Company (SO)
    • Sempra Energy (SRE)
  • Petrochemical Companies: Companies that utilize natural gas liquids (NGLs) such as ethane, propane, and butane as feedstocks for producing plastics, chemicals, and other derivatives.
    • Dow Inc. (DOW)
    • LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB)
    • ExxonMobil (XOM) (also has significant petrochemical operations)
  • Commodity Traders and Marketers: Specialized firms or divisions of larger energy companies that purchase crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs for resale, logistics management, and risk hedging in the global commodity markets. Examples include trading arms of major integrated energy companies like BP (BP) or Shell (SHEL), among others.

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

  • Schlumberger (SLB)
  • Halliburton (HAL)
  • Baker Hughes (BKR)
  • National Oilwell Varco (NOV)

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here is the management team for ConocoPhillips:

Ryan Lance, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Ryan Lance is a petroleum engineer with four decades of experience in the oil and natural gas industry. He began his career with ARCO Alaska in 1984 and has held various senior management and technical positions with ARCO, Phillips Petroleum, and ConocoPhillips. He was appointed Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of ConocoPhillips in May 2012.

Andy O'Brien, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Strategy and Commercial

Andy O'Brien assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Strategy and Commercial, effective June 1, 2025. He has over 27 years of experience with ConocoPhillips, previously serving as Senior Vice President of Strategy, Commercial, Sustainability & Technology and Senior Vice President of Global Operations. His extensive background includes managerial roles in finance, planning, treasury, and corporate planning and development across various international locations, including the U.K., Canada, Alaska, Indonesia, and Houston. He is a chartered management accountant and holds a BA in Business Studies from the University of Plymouth. O'Brien has also served as a Director at Aris Water Solutions and the OIL Casualty Investment Corporation.

Heather Hrap, Senior Vice President, Human Resources and Real Estate and Facilities Services

Heather Hrap serves as the Senior Vice President of Human Resources and Real Estate and Facilities Services for ConocoPhillips.

Kirk Johnson, Executive Vice President, Global Operations and Technical Functions

Kirk Johnson is the Executive Vice President, Global Operations and Technical Functions, leading the team responsible for the company's global operations and technical functions.

Nick Olds, Executive Vice President, Lower 48 and Global HSE

Nick Olds holds the position of Executive Vice President, Lower 48 and Global HSE, overseeing the company's Lower 48 and global health, safety, and environmental operations.

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The rapid acceleration of electric vehicle (EV) adoption globally, coupled with the increasing shift towards renewable energy sources (solar, wind) for power generation and advancements in battery storage technology, poses a clear emerging threat by progressively eroding the long-term demand for crude oil and natural gas, ConocoPhillips' core products. This trend could lead to lower future commodity prices, reduced drilling opportunities, and the potential for stranded assets as the world transitions away from fossil fuels.

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

ConocoPhillips (COP) is primarily engaged in the exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) on a global scale.

  • Crude Oil: The global crude oil market size was valued at approximately USD 2.6 trillion in 2023, with projections to reach USD 3.0 trillion by 2033. Another estimate places the global crude oil market at USD 739.88 billion in 2023, expected to grow to USD 853.5 billion by 2032. Yet another report indicates a global crude oil market size of USD 2904.87 billion in 2021, expected to reach USD 3415.7 billion by the end of 2025 and USD 4722.66 billion by 2033. The global physical oil market exceeded USD 2 trillion in 2022.
  • Natural Gas: The global natural gas market size was valued at USD 1127.09 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to USD 2142.88 billion by 2032. Another report states the natural gas market size was valued at USD 300.4 trillion in 2021 and is projected to reach USD 424.7 trillion by 2031.
  • Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): The global natural gas liquids market size is anticipated to be worth USD 185316.83 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 282596.26 million by 2033. Other estimations show the global natural gas liquids market size at USD 15.4 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 21.59 billion by 2030, and USD 16.3 billion in 2025, estimated to reach USD 29.4 billion by the end of 2035.
  • Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): The global liquefied natural gas market size was valued at USD 122.60 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 226.97 billion by 2030.

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for ConocoPhillips (COP) over the next 2-3 years:

  1. Increased Production Volumes from Strategic Acquisitions and Organic Growth: ConocoPhillips anticipates revenue growth through higher production volumes, significantly bolstered by the full integration of Marathon Oil, which closed in late 2024. This acquisition has already positively impacted Q1 2025 results and is expected to add over 2.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) net resources. Furthermore, the company projects continued underlying growth in its Lower 48 operations, particularly in the Permian Basin, with expectations to sustain modest growth of 4-5% annually for the next decade. Major projects like the Willow Project in Alaska are also slated to contribute to production increases, with peak production reaching 180,000 barrels per day once fully operational, although its full capacity impact is expected by 2029, a ramp-up will contribute before then. Overall, ConocoPhillips expects to achieve low single-digit production growth in 2025.
  2. Expansion in the Global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Market: ConocoPhillips is strategically expanding its presence in the global LNG market, a key driver for future revenue. The company holds a 25% stake in Qatar's North Field East 4 (NFE4) and North Field South 3 (NFS3) projects, both of which are scheduled to commence production in 2025. Additionally, the Saguaro LNG project is currently in the pre-Final Investment Decision (pre-FID) stage. These projects are expected to significantly strengthen ConocoPhillips' position by expanding production capacity and are projected to double the company's LNG production from existing projects by 2028. ConocoPhillips also partnered with Sempra for the Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 development, which is anticipated to begin operations in 2027.
  3. Realization of Synergies and Operational Efficiencies from Marathon Oil Acquisition: The integration of Marathon Oil is not only increasing resource base but also generating substantial synergies and operational efficiencies. ConocoPhillips initially aimed for $500 million in annual synergies from the acquisition, a target that has since been increased to $1 billion by the end of 2025, with an additional $1 billion in cost and margin enhancements anticipated by the end of 2026. These efficiencies, including optimized drilling and fracturing programs, allow the company to achieve desired production outcomes with reduced capital expenditure and operating costs, thereby supporting higher revenue per unit of investment and enhancing overall profitability.
  4. Strategic Asset Development and Portfolio Optimization: ConocoPhillips' disciplined capital allocation strategy focuses on developing a high-quality portfolio with deep inventory, which is expected to drive sustained revenue growth. The company is investing in longer-cycle projects in Alaska and LNG, alongside high-return short-cycle U.S. oil and gas assets. This approach, including continuous investment in its key Lower 48 segment, aims to improve operational efficiency and maximize the value of its existing assets, ensuring a steady ramp-up in production and free cash flow generation for decades to come.

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

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Interactive Breakdown

ConocoPhillips Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than ConocoPhillips (COP)

 COPBetter Performance than COP
MetricValueIndustry (Oil & Gas Exploration & Produc)
Rev Chg LTM2.4%CNQ (3.2%), FANG (51.8%), EQT (64.8%), EXE (169.1%), TPL (10.7%)
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.6%CNQ (-0.5%), FANG (18.3%), EQT (-2.8%), TPL (7.8%), DVN (0.3%)
Op Mgn LTM22.0%CNQ (24.5%), EOG (34.2%), FANG (37.8%), EQT (37.0%), TPL (75.9%)
CFO/Rev LTM34.3%EOG (47.0%), FANG (54.1%), OXY (44.7%), EQT (60.3%), EXE (36.9%)
FCF/Rev LTM12.0%CNQ (18.2%), EOG (19.9%), OXY (17.6%), EQT (31.6%), EXE (12.9%)
Total Yield11.7%CNQ (19.7%), EOG (13.7%), FANG (12.5%), DVN (17.3%), PR (18.4%)
 COPBetter Performance than COP
MetricValueAll Other Sectors
Rev Chg LTM2.4%NVDA (71.6%), AAPL (6.0%), MSFT (15.6%), GOOGL (13.4%), AMZN (10.9%)
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.6%NVDA (92.0%), AAPL (1.8%), MSFT (13.2%), GOOGL (11.0%), AMZN (11.3%)
Op Mgn LTM22.0%NVDA (58.1%), AAPL (31.9%), MSFT (46.3%), GOOGL (32.2%), AVGO (39.0%)
CFO/Rev LTM34.3%NVDA (46.6%), MSFT (50.0%), GOOGL (39.3%), AVGO (42.4%), META (56.8%)
FCF/Rev LTM12.0%NVDA (43.6%), AAPL (23.5%), MSFT (26.6%), GOOGL (19.1%), AVGO (41.6%)
Total Yield11.7%BABA (38.4%), TM (2051.5%), T (12.7%), VZ (18.8%), TD (15.1%)
 Best Bets In Energy Sector
 COPTPL AM WES INSW CTRA DTM EOG WHD WMB CHRD
What You Pay           
P/E12.045.517.411.210.212.527.810.017.129.119.3
P/EBIT7.437.39.88.48.79.315.67.611.514.98.7
What You Get           
Rev Chg Q2.8%8.8%8.7%4.1%-24.0%54.6%26.6%-11.2%-10.0%10.2%-6.4%
Rev Chg LTM2.4%10.7%8.7%7.1%-22.0%17.1%20.4%-5.4%-3.8%9.0%19.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.6%7.8%9.0%5.7%37.6%0.7%9.6%-5.1%22.9%0.8%34.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.3%47.2%46.6%35.4%33.0%27.6%25.8%24.3%23.5%22.5%22.8%

[1] Choosing top 10 best bets from each sector quarterly is an alpha producing strategy vs sector benchmark
[2] Historical annualized return of 5.4%, alpha of -0.1%, and sharpe of 0.25

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopicDate
0DASHBOARDS  
1How Low Can ConocoPhillips Stock Really Go?Return 
2ConocoPhillips vs Cheniere Energy: Which Is A Better Investment?Counter-Intuitive Comparisons 
3ConocoPhillips vs Diamondback Energy: Which Is A Better Investment?Counter-Intuitive Comparisons 
4How Does ConocoPhillips Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?Peer Comparison 
5Better Bet Than COP Stock: Pay Less Than ConocoPhillips To Get More From UNH, HCA   
6Better Bet Than COP Stock: Pay Less Than ConocoPhillips To Get More From OKE, FANG   
7Better Bet Than COP Stock: Pay Less Than ConocoPhillips To Get More From FANG, PR   
8Why ConocoPhillips Stock Moved: COP Stock Has Gained 43% Since 2021 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Revenues  
9Better Bet Than COP Stock: Pay Less Than ConocoPhillips To Get More From CRGY, FANG, PR, STR Actionable 
10COP Dip Buy Analysis  
11ARTICLES  
12Better Bet Than ConocoPhillips Stock: Pay Less To Get More From FANG, PR August 7th, 2025
13Better Bet Than ConocoPhillips Stock: Pay Less To Get More From FANG, PR July 25th, 2025
14How Will ConocoPhillips’ Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? May 6th, 2025
15What’s Happening With ConocoPhillips’ Stock? December 17th, 2024
16Down 6% YTD, Will ConocoPhillips Stock Gain Following Q2 Results? July 31st, 2024
Title
0DASHBOARDS
1Better Bet Than ConocoPhillips Stock: Pay Less To Get More From FANG, PR
2Better Bet Than ConocoPhillips Stock: Pay Less To Get More From FANG, PR
3How Will ConocoPhillips’ Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
4What’s Happening With ConocoPhillips’ Stock?
5Down 6% YTD, Will ConocoPhillips Stock Gain Following Q2 Results?
6ARTICLES
7How Low Can ConocoPhillips Stock Really Go?
8ConocoPhillips vs Cheniere Energy: Which Is A Better Investment?
9ConocoPhillips vs Diamondback Energy: Which Is A Better Investment?
10How Does ConocoPhillips Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?
11Better Bet Than COP Stock: Pay Less Than ConocoPhillips To Get More From UNH, HCA 
12Better Bet Than COP Stock: Pay Less Than ConocoPhillips To Get More From OKE, FANG 
13Better Bet Than COP Stock: Pay Less Than ConocoPhillips To Get More From FANG, PR 
14Why ConocoPhillips Stock Moved: COP Stock Has Gained 43% Since 2021 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Revenues
15Better Bet Than COP Stock: Pay Less Than ConocoPhillips To Get More From CRGY, FANG, PR, STR 
16COP Dip Buy Analysis

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to COP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		1.1%1.1%-1.4%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		23.7%23.7%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		-2.9%-2.9%-3.7%
SLB_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025SLBSLBDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		16.7%16.7%0.0%
COP_2292020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02292020COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		-19.1%12.0%-53.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		4.4%4.4%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		1.1%1.1%-1.4%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		23.7%23.7%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		-2.9%-2.9%-3.7%
SLB_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025SLBSLBDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		16.7%16.7%0.0%
COP_2292020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02292020COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		-19.1%12.0%-53.2%

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Peer Comparisons for ConocoPhillips

Financials

COPEOGOKEEPMINDOMedian
NameConocoPh.EOG Reso.ONEOK Evolutio.Indonesi. 
Mkt Price87.91105.2664.314.382.7964.31
Mkt Cap110.557.240.60.1-48.9
Rev LTM57,79822,71231,56486-27,138
Op Inc LTM12,7027,7625,9074-6,834
FCF LTM6,9234,5292,92011-3,724
FCF 3Y Avg9,9875,8742,7639-4,318
CFO LTM19,82010,6725,66433-8,168
CFO 3Y Avg21,67412,0074,80136-8,404

Growth & Margins

COPEOGOKEEPMINDOMedian
NameConocoPh.EOG Reso.ONEOK Evolutio.Indonesi. 
Rev Chg LTM2.4%-5.4%58.4%-0.0%-1.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.6%-5.1%16.4%-5.1%--4.4%
Rev Chg Q2.8%-11.2%71.9%-0.6%-1.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.7%-2.9%12.9%-0.1%-0.3%
Op Mgn LTM22.0%34.2%18.7%4.9%-20.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg25.5%38.1%21.2%16.4%-23.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.6%-1.4%-0.9%-1.2%--1.3%
CFO/Rev LTM34.3%47.0%17.9%38.5%-36.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg35.9%50.0%21.5%35.0%-35.4%
FCF/Rev LTM12.0%19.9%9.3%13.3%-12.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.3%24.3%12.7%4.5%-14.5%

Valuation

COPEOGOKEEPMINDOMedian
NameConocoPh.EOG Reso.ONEOK Evolutio.Indonesi. 
Mkt Cap110.557.240.60.1-48.9
P/S1.92.51.31.7-1.8
P/EBIT7.47.66.430.4-7.5
P/E12.010.012.199.8-12.1
P/CFO5.65.47.24.4-5.5
Total Yield11.7%13.7%8.2%12.1%-11.9%
Dividend Yield3.4%3.7%0.0%11.1%-3.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.0%8.7%6.9%2.3%-7.4%
D/E0.20.10.80.3-0.2
Net D/E0.2-0.00.80.2-0.2

Returns

COPEOGOKEEPMINDOMedian
NameConocoPh.EOG Reso.ONEOK Evolutio.Indonesi. 
1M Rtn-6.6%-4.1%-10.4%-10.8%-8.2%-8.2%
3M Rtn-4.9%-9.8%-13.7%-6.2%-6.1%-6.2%
6M Rtn2.0%-1.4%-16.6%11.9%19.7%2.0%
12M Rtn-16.6%-11.4%-29.2%-7.8%-34.7%-16.6%
3Y Rtn-26.6%-16.3%23.9%-31.4%-60.1%-26.6%
1M Excs Rtn-7.8%-4.2%-10.7%-9.4%-7.8%-7.8%
3M Excs Rtn-11.5%-15.6%-19.9%-13.9%-13.7%-13.9%
6M Excs Rtn-18.8%-22.2%-37.4%-8.9%-1.0%-18.8%
12M Excs Rtn-35.8%-29.4%-48.1%-25.4%-51.8%-35.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-97.2%-84.6%-45.5%-101.7%-130.7%-97.2%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

$ Mil | FY: 12/312025Q22025Q12024Q42024Q32024Q22024Q12023Q42023Q32023Q22023Q12022Q42022Q3
Period End6/30/20253/31/202512/31/20249/30/20246/30/20243/31/202412/31/20239/30/20236/30/20233/31/202312/31/20229/30/2022
Filing Date8/7/20255/8/20252/18/202510/31/20248/1/20245/2/20242/15/202411/2/20238/3/20235/4/20232/16/202311/3/2022
Key Financials Quarterly            
Total Revenue14,00416,51714,23613,04113,62013,84814,72914,25012,35114,81118,55821,013
Ebitda6,2067,5725,9085,8946,3006,3236,7966,5065,6536,8287,6849,707
Operating Income2,6064,2182,9672,9113,4623,4434,0883,8203,0394,0794,7977,011
Net Income1,9712,8492,3062,0592,3292,5513,0072,7982,2322,9203,2494,527
EPS1.562.231.901.771.992.162.532.331.842.382.613.56
Key Financials TTM            
Total Revenue TTM57,79857,41454,74555,23856,44755,17856,14159,97066,73375,54378,49475,056
Ebitda TTM25,58025,67424,42525,31325,92525,27825,78326,67129,87233,95637,12735,881
Operating Income TTM12,70213,55812,78313,90414,81314,39015,02615,73518,92623,00425,46225,180
Net Income TTM9,1859,5439,2459,94610,68510,58810,95711,19912,92815,84118,68018,058
Growth Rates Quarterly            
Total Revenue Growth2.8%19.3%-3.3%-8.5%10.3%-6.5%-20.6%-32.2%-41.6%-16.6%22.7%85.5%
EBITDA Growth-1.5%19.8%-13.1%-9.4%11.4%-7.4%-11.6%-33.0%-41.9%-31.7%19.4%75.4%
Operating Income Growth-24.7%22.5%-27.4%-23.8%13.9%-15.6%-14.8%-45.5%-57.3%-37.6%6.2%100.9%
Net Income Growth-15.4%11.7%-23.3%-26.4%4.3%-12.6%-7.4%-38.2%-56.6%-49.3%23.7%90.3%
Margins Quarterly            
EBITDA Margin44.3%45.8%41.5%45.2%46.3%45.7%46.1%45.7%45.8%46.1%41.4%46.2%
Operating Income Margin18.6%25.5%20.8%22.3%25.4%24.9%27.8%26.8%24.6%27.5%25.8%33.4%
Net Income Margin14.1%17.2%16.2%15.8%17.1%18.4%20.4%19.6%18.1%19.7%17.5%21.5%
Cash & Debt            
Total Cash5,3407,2356,1146,7926,0176,0616,6069,4466,8158,6099,24310,422
Total Debt23,52923,78424,32418,30418,35218,41718,93719,06316,44416,58316,64316,961
Net Debt / (Cash)18,18916,54918,21011,51212,33512,35612,3319,6179,6297,9747,4006,539
Cash Flows Quarterly            
FCF from Operations3,4856,1154,4575,7634,9194,9855,2635,4453,8545,4036,5928,740
Cash Flows TTM            
FCF from Operations TTM19,82021,25420,12420,93020,61219,54719,96521,29424,58928,64928,31427,590
Returns to Shareholders Quarterly            
Dividends9849988979109159241,4081,3371,3501,4882,3901,484
Share Repurchases1,2251,5521,9621,1761,0171,3861,0951,2621,2981,7972,7462,799
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Quarterly            
ROIC37.4%65.0%50.6%64.4%71.5%74.7%93.5%108.4%83.8%131.0%160.9%261.0%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) TTM            
ROIC TTM46.9%54.6%47.5%80.3%81.1%79.4%82.0%106.2%123.4%183.6%227.7%254.4%

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment56,14178,49445,82818,78432,567
Total56,14178,49445,82818,78432,567


Price Behavior

COP Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2025

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.980.650.690.720.940.76
Up Beta0.791.091.050.901.020.75
Down Beta1.551.431.421.311.351.11
Up Capture6%-38%0%25%32%17%
Bmk +ve Days14273774145425
Stock +ve Days12223465131375
Down Capture115%58%49%58%75%89%
Bmk -ve Days9172853106327
Stock -ve Days11223162120377

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity13,042,310
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302025-2.3%
Average Daily Volume5,465,532
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.39
Basic Shares Quantity1,257,512,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.0%

Returns Analyses

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211104202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
0JOHNSON KIRK L.Executive Vice President6172025Buy94.245,300499,4721,369,024Form
1Murti Arjun N 12202024Buy95.872,500239,6752,061,203Form
2WALKER R A 12182024Buy97.8010,4001,017,1613,716,548Form

Industry Resources

External Quote Links


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