Tearsheet

ConocoPhillips (COP)


Market Price (11/19/2025): $89.62 | Market Cap: $111.6 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

ConocoPhillips (COP)


Market Price (11/19/2025): $89.62
Market Cap: $111.6 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.3%, FCF Yield is 6.3%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.1 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, US Oilfield Technologies, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 3.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.3%, FCF Yield is 6.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.1 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 33%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, US Oilfield Technologies, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

COP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the -4.3% movement in ConocoPhillips (COP) stock from approximately July 31, 2025, to November 19, 2025:

1. ConocoPhillips announced a significant global workforce reduction. On September 3, 2025, ConocoPhillips revealed plans to cut 20% to 25% of its global workforce, impacting between 2,600 and 3,250 employees and contractors. This restructuring was aimed at boosting margins and reducing costs following the company's $17 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil in 2024 and rising controllable production costs. This news directly led to a 4.3% drop in ConocoPhillips' shares on September 3rd or 4th.

2. The company reported a year-over-year decline in third-quarter 2025 earnings. On November 6, 2025, ConocoPhillips announced third-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.7 billion, or $1.38 per share, a decrease compared to $2.1 billion, or $1.76 per share, in the third quarter of 2024. Although adjusted earnings of $1.61 per share surpassed analyst forecasts, the overall reported net income and earnings per share represented a decline from the previous year, which could have negatively impacted investor sentiment.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
COP Return-36%87%74%2%-12%-6%75%
Peers Return-29%50%64%-15%-2%-8%34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%105%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
COP Win Rate42%67%58%58%33%50% 
Peers Win Rate38%56%58%46%42%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
COP Max Drawdown-65%-1%0%-20%-16%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-67%-17%-1%-28%-16%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EOG, OKE, EPM, INDO, COP. See COP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/18/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCOPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven91 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-65.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven193.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven558 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-36.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven868 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven172.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1690 days1480 days

Compare to EOG, OKE, EPM, INDO, COP


In The Past

ConocoPhillips's stock fell -33.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -33.5% loss requires a 50.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About ConocoPhillips (COP)

Better Bets than ConocoPhillips (COP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to COP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
21.2%21.2%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.1%-1.1%-5.7%
SLB_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025SLBSLBDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.9%12.9%0.0%
COP_2292020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02292020COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-19.1%12.0%-53.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
21.2%21.2%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.1%-1.1%-5.7%
SLB_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025SLBSLBDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.9%12.9%0.0%
COP_2292020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02292020COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-19.1%12.0%-53.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for ConocoPhillips

Financials

COPEOGOKEEPMINDOMedian
NameConocoPh.EOG Reso.ONEOK Evolutio.Indonesi. 
Mkt Price89.68109.5769.434.06-79.56
Mkt Cap111.759.343.80.1-51.5
Rev LTM59,78822,57931,56486-27,072
Op Inc LTM12,5497,5395,9074-6,723
FCF LTM7,0883,8912,92011-3,406
FCF 3Y Avg8,9105,1672,7639-3,965
CFO LTM19,93510,1955,66433-7,930
CFO 3Y Avg20,72011,4534,80136-8,127

Growth & Margins

COPEOGOKEEPMINDOMedian
NameConocoPh.EOG Reso.ONEOK Evolutio.Indonesi. 
Rev Chg LTM8.2%-5.0%58.4%-0.0%-4.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-6.6%-7.6%16.4%-5.1%--5.8%
Rev Chg Q15.3%-2.3%71.9%-0.6%-7.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.4%-0.6%12.9%-0.1%-1.7%
Op Mgn LTM21.0%33.4%18.7%4.9%-19.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg24.1%36.4%21.2%16.4%-22.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%-0.8%-0.9%-1.2%--0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM33.3%45.2%17.9%38.5%-35.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg35.6%49.0%21.5%35.0%-35.3%
FCF/Rev LTM11.9%17.2%9.3%13.3%-12.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg15.3%22.1%12.7%4.5%-14.0%

Valuation

COPEOGOKEEPMINDOMedian
NameConocoPh.EOG Reso.ONEOK Evolutio.Indonesi. 
Mkt Cap111.759.343.80.1-51.5
P/S1.92.61.41.6-1.7
P/EBIT7.68.16.928.1-7.9
P/E12.610.713.192.5-12.9
P/CFO5.65.87.74.1-5.7
Total Yield11.4%12.9%7.6%13.1%-12.1%
Dividend Yield3.5%3.6%0.0%12.0%-3.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.9%7.6%6.9%2.3%-6.9%
D/E0.20.10.80.3-0.2
Net D/E0.20.10.70.3-0.2

Returns

COPEOGOKEEPMINDOMedian
NameConocoPh.EOG Reso.ONEOK Evolutio.Indonesi. 
1M Rtn4.7%3.2%3.6%-10.4%-3.4%
3M Rtn-3.5%-5.7%-4.1%-14.3%--4.9%
6M Rtn1.7%-0.9%-14.7%-2.5%--1.7%
12M Rtn-18.4%-17.0%-35.0%-24.7%--21.6%
3Y Rtn-22.5%-12.2%26.1%-32.9%--17.3%
1M Excs Rtn5.7%4.7%4.6%-8.2%-4.7%
3M Excs Rtn-8.1%-10.0%-7.8%-18.5%--9.0%
6M Excs Rtn-9.6%-12.3%-26.1%-13.9%--13.1%
12M Excs Rtn-29.1%-27.4%-43.5%-35.1%--32.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-91.0%-81.5%-40.0%-99.8%--86.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment56,14178,49445,82818,78432,567
Total56,14178,49445,82818,78432,567


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity15,646,486
Short Interest: % Change Since 1015202520.0%
Average Daily Volume6,363,444
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.46
Basic Shares Quantity1,245,253,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/2025-2.3%1.6% 
8/7/2025-0.5%3.8%0.7%
5/8/20251.3%5.5%0.3%
2/6/2025-0.3%-1.8%-8.8%
10/31/20246.4%10.3%5.9%
8/1/2024-2.5%-3.8%3.6%
5/2/2024-1.7%-1.0%-5.6%
2/8/20241.4%-2.0%1.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91315
# Negative15119
Median Positive1.4%4.6%5.9%
Median Negative-1.6%-2.2%-6.4%
Max Positive6.4%14.9%48.6%
Max Negative-5.8%-5.9%-15.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023215202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0JOHNSON KIRK L.Executive Vice President6172025Buy94.245,300499,4721,369,024Form
1Murti Arjun N 12202024Buy95.872,500239,6752,061,203Form
2WALKER R A 12182024Buy97.8010,4001,017,1613,716,548Form