Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE)
Market Price (6/28/2026): $187.0 | Market Cap: $12.4 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE)
Market Price (6/28/2026): $187.0Market Cap: $12.4 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3%, FCF Yield is 5.3% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.2 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. | Key risksCOKE key risks include [1] its foundational dependence on its partnership with The Coca-Cola Company, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.3%, FCF Yield is 5.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Themes include Functional Foods & Beverages, Show more. |
| Key risksCOKE key risks include [1] its foundational dependence on its partnership with The Coca-Cola Company, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Adjusted Net Income Declined in Fiscal Q1 2026.
Coca-Cola Consolidated reported a 12.3% decrease in adjusted net income, falling to $119.5 million in fiscal Q1 2026 (ended April 3, 2026) from $136.3 million in fiscal Q1 2025. This reduction in profitability likely contributed to negative investor sentiment. The company's fiscal year ends on December 31, with Q1 ending in early April.
2. Significant One-Off Expenses Impacted Fiscal Q1 2026 Statutory Profit.
The company's reported statutory profit for fiscal Q1 2026 was negatively affected by approximately $143 million in unusually large one-off expenses. These non-recurring charges presented a less favorable overall earnings picture to the market.
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Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Adjusted Net Income Declined in Fiscal Q1 2026.
Coca-Cola Consolidated reported a 12.3% decrease in adjusted net income, falling to $119.5 million in fiscal Q1 2026 (ended April 3, 2026) from $136.3 million in fiscal Q1 2025. This reduction in profitability likely contributed to negative investor sentiment. The company's fiscal year ends on December 31, with Q1 ending in early April.
2. Significant One-Off Expenses Impacted Fiscal Q1 2026 Statutory Profit.
The company's reported statutory profit for fiscal Q1 2026 was negatively affected by approximately $143 million in unusually large one-off expenses. These non-recurring charges presented a less favorable overall earnings picture to the market.
3. Gross Margin Erosion Due to Increased Input Costs.
Coca-Cola Consolidated experienced a 70 basis point decrease in its adjusted gross margin to 39.1% in fiscal Q1 2026. This decline was primarily driven by an approximate $35 million increase in aluminum costs compared to fiscal Q1 2025, stemming from broader macroeconomic factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply constraints, and elevated import tariffs, which outpaced the company's pricing adjustments.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.0% change in COKE stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 202.14 | 188.03 | -7.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,228 | 7,495 | 3.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.9% | 7.7% | -2.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.2 | 21.6 | -17.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 74 | 67 | 11.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COKE | -7.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 6.6% | -7.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | -5.4% | 35.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.7% change in COKE stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 30.1% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 162.47 | 188.03 | 15.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,070 | 7,495 | 6.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.7% | 7.7% | -10.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.0 | 21.6 | -5.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 87 | 67 | 30.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.7% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COKE | 15.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.3% | -8.1% |
| Sector (XLP) | 8.2% | 29.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 65.2% change in COKE stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 31.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 113.83 | 188.03 | 65.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,888 | 7,495 | 8.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.3% | 7.7% | -6.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.4 | 21.6 | 24.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 87 | 67 | 31.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 65.2% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COKE | 65.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 25.1% | -3.0% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.1% | 32.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 194.1% change in COKE stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/27/2026 was primarily driven by a 64.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 63.93 | 188.03 | 194.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,368 | 7,495 | 17.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.2 | 21.6 | 64.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 94 | 67 | 40.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 194.1% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COKE | 194.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 16.2% |
| Sector (XLP) | 26.5% | 33.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| COKE Return | 133% | -17% | 83% | 39% | 23% | 17% | 606% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 14% | 26% | 15% | 19% | 6% | 118% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| COKE Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 39% | 56% | 61% | 53% | 56% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| COKE Max Drawdown | -15% | -36% | -16% | -17% | -27% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -25% | -21% | -19% | -20% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: KO, COCO, BUDA, SUJA, PEP. See COKE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/26/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | COKE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 219 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -19.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -16.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.6% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 955 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Coca-Cola Consolidated's stock fell -24.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 32.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | COKE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 219 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -30.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 955 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Coca-Cola Consolidated's stock fell -24.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 32.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE)
Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. (COKE) is a major manufacturer, marketer, and distributor of nonalcoholic beverages, primarily focusing on products from The Coca-Cola Company across the United States. Beyond its core Coca-Cola offerings, the company also plays a significant role in distributing beverages for other well-known brands such as Dr Pepper and Monster Energy, expanding its market reach and product portfolio.
The company's product line is diverse, encompassing both sparkling and still beverages. Sparkling beverages include various carbonated soft drinks, while its still beverage segment features a wide array of non-carbonated options like bottled water, energy drinks, ready-to-drink coffee and tea, enhanced waters, juices, and sports drinks. Additionally, Coca-Cola Consolidated supplies post-mix fountain syrups, which are used by restaurants and other establishments to dispense beverages to consumers.
Coca-Cola Consolidated serves a broad range of customers through multiple sales channels. Its products are sold directly to major retail outlets including grocery, mass merchandise, club, convenience, and drug stores. The company also supplies the foodservice sector, reaching restaurants, schools, amusement parks, and recreational facilities, and operates through vending machine outlets. Furthermore, it acts as a supplier to other Coca-Cola bottlers.
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It's like the regional PepsiCo, but exclusively for bottling and distributing Coca-Cola and other non-alcoholic beverages across a large portion of the US.
Think of it as the dedicated UPS or FedEx for Coca-Cola products, but one that also manufactures the drinks before delivering them to stores and restaurants throughout much of the U.S.
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- Sparkling Beverages: This category includes carbonated beverages, featuring products from The Coca-Cola Company and other distributed brands like Dr Pepper.
- Still Beverages: Comprises a variety of non-carbonated drinks such as bottled water, ready-to-drink coffee and tea, enhanced water, juices, sports drinks, and energy products including Monster Energy.
- Post-Mix Fountain Syrups: These are concentrated syrups designed to be dispensed through equipment, mixing with water to create finished beverages for fountain retailers.
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Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE) primarily sells its products to other companies rather than directly to individuals. Based on the provided description, its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Retail Channels: This category encompasses a wide range of businesses that resell Coca-Cola Consolidated's products directly to consumers. These include grocery stores, mass merchandise stores, club stores, convenience stores, and drug stores.
- Foodservice and On-Premise Channels: This category covers establishments where beverages are typically consumed on-site or purchased for immediate consumption. These customers include restaurants, schools, amusement parks, recreational facilities, and vending machine outlets. It also includes "fountain retailers" who dispense post-mix products.
- Other Coca-Cola Bottlers: Coca-Cola Consolidated also sells its products to other Coca-Cola bottlers within the broader Coca-Cola system.
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- The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
- Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)
- Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST)
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J. Frank Harrison, III, Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer
J. Frank Harrison, III officially began his career with Coca-Cola Consolidated in 1977, though his family's roots in the Coca-Cola system date back to 1902. He served in various operational and leadership roles before becoming Chairman & CEO in 1996, making him the fourth-generation family leader of the company. Mr. Harrison co-founded With Open Eyes, a non-profit ministry, in 2008. He holds a Bachelor of Science Degree in Business Administration from the University of North Carolina and an MBA from Duke University. He is the controlling stockholder of Coca-Cola Consolidated via Class B Common Stock structures.
Matthew J. Blickley, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer
Matthew J. Blickley will assume the role of Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective April 1, 2025, and will continue to serve as Chief Accounting Officer. He joined Coca-Cola Consolidated in 2014 and has held various financial roles of increasing responsibility, including Corporate Controller and Senior Vice President, Financial Planning. Before joining the company, Mr. Blickley worked at Family Dollar Stores, Inc. from January 2011 to November 2014, in senior financial positions such as Divisional Vice President, Financial Planning & Analysis and Director, Financial Reporting. He began his career as an Audit Associate at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP in 2004, advancing to Audit Manager. Mr. Blickley is a certified public accountant and holds a Bachelor's degree from Virginia Tech and an MBA from UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School.
David M. Katz, President and Chief Operating Officer
David M. Katz currently serves as President and Chief Operating Officer of Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. He joined the company in 2013 as Assistant to the Chairman and CEO, and has since held positions in manufacturing, engineering, quality assurance, operations planning, human resources, culture, and stewardship. Mr. Katz previously served as Chief Financial Officer from January 2018 until transitioning to his current role on December 31, 2018. Prior to joining Coca-Cola Consolidated, he worked with Coca-Cola Enterprises, Inc. from 1993 to 2010 in various roles and was Senior Vice-President, Midwest Region at Coca-Cola Refreshments from 2011 to 2013. He holds Bachelor's and Master's degrees in Industrial Engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology.
E. Beauregarde Fisher III, Chief Legal and Administrative Officer and Corporate Secretary
E. Beauregarde Fisher III is the Chief Legal and Administrative Officer and Corporate Secretary for Coca-Cola Consolidated. He joined the company in February 2017, having previously served as outside corporate counsel for the company from 2011 to 2017. Before joining Coca-Cola Consolidated, he was a Partner with the law firm of Moore & Van Allen, PLLC from 1998 to 2017, where he was involved in the firm's management committee and chaired its business law practice group. His legal practice focused on mergers and acquisitions, corporate governance, private equity, venture capital, and general corporate matters. Mr. Fisher holds an MBA from UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School, a B.S. in Political Science from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and a Doctor of Law (JD) from the University of North Carolina School of Law.
Joshua L. Dorminy, Executive Vice President, Assistant to the Chairman and CEO
Joshua L. Dorminy is the Executive Vice President, Assistant to the Chairman and CEO at Coca-Cola Consolidated, a position he assumed after previously serving as Senior Vice President. He joined the company in 2016. Prior to his time at Coca-Cola Consolidated, Mr. Dorminy was the Broker and Managing Member of a commercial real estate brokerage firm. He also served as the Executive Director of Timothy Barnabas, a non-profit organization dedicated to training and encouraging pastors and their spouses globally. Mr. Dorminy is actively involved in the strategic direction and planning of Coca-Cola Consolidated's Culture & Stewardship, t-factor, Rapid Response, and charitable giving programs.
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Dependence on The Coca-Cola Company: Coca-Cola Consolidated's business model is fundamentally reliant on its partnership with The Coca-Cola Company (TCCC). Approximately 85% of COKE's bottle and can volume comes from TCCC brands. The Coca-Cola Company controls concentrate pricing, key manufacturing, and distribution rights, and major system governance. Any material changes in marketing funding programs, performance requirements, or COKE's inability to meet these requirements could adversely affect its business, financial condition, and results of operations or profitability.
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Health Trends and Sugar Regulation: The company faces significant long-term headwinds due to evolving health trends and increasing sugar regulation. Global consumption is shifting towards healthier beverages, and governments are becoming more aggressive about sugar regulation, with sugar taxes already introduced in dozens of countries. Further regulations, such as front-of-pack warning labels and restrictions on advertising and portion sizes, could raise prices, reduce affordability, and ultimately weigh on sales volumes for sugary sodas, which are core to COKE's product offerings.
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High Financial Leverage: Coca-Cola Consolidated's financial health is subject to risks associated with its financial leverage. A recent $2.4 billion share repurchase significantly increased the company's pro forma leverage to 2.6x, exceeding S&P Global's preferred 2x threshold, which led to a negative outlook revision in November 2025. This increased debt load is identified as a critical near-term risk for investors to monitor.
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Here are the addressable market sizes for Coca-Cola Consolidated's main products and services in the United States:
- Overall Non-Alcoholic Beverages Market: The U.S. non-alcoholic beverages market size was estimated at approximately USD 298.4 billion in 2024.
- Carbonated Soft Drinks: The market size for carbonated soft drinks in the U.S. is estimated to be between USD 100.46 billion and USD 108.6 billion in 2024.
- Bottled Water: The U.S. bottled water market size was valued at USD 51.2 billion in 2024.
- Ready-to-Drink (RTD) Coffee: The U.S. ready-to-drink coffee market size was estimated at USD 7.93 billion in 2025.
- Ready-to-Drink (RTD) Tea: The U.S. ready-to-drink tea market size is estimated at USD 13.14 billion in 2025.
- Energy Drinks: The U.S. energy drinks market size was estimated at USD 25.01 billion in 2024.
- Juice: The U.S. juice market size was estimated at USD 24.97 billion in 2025.
- Sports Drinks: The U.S. sports drinks market was valued at USD 12.61 billion in 2025.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE)
Over the next 2-3 years, Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE) is expected to drive future revenue growth through the following key areas:
- Strategic Pricing Actions: The company has demonstrated its ability to implement annual pricing actions that contribute significantly to net sales growth. This approach is a primary factor in increasing revenue.
- Strong Volume Performance: Consistent growth in sales volume, as evidenced by a 4.6% rise in volume during the fourth quarter of 2025, is a crucial driver. Sustained consumer demand and effective distribution will continue to fuel this volume expansion.
- Growth in Sparkling and Still Beverage Categories: Focused growth within its core product categories, particularly sparkling and still beverages, is expected to continue. The fourth quarter of 2025 saw net sales increases of 6.4% for sparkling beverages and 10.0% for still beverages, indicating ongoing strength and opportunity in these segments.
- Investment in Front-Line Employees: Management's plans to further invest in front-line employees are anticipated to support operational strength. While an indirect driver, improved operational efficiency and enhanced market execution resulting from these investments can positively impact revenue generation.
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Share Repurchases
- In November 2025, Coca-Cola Consolidated repurchased all 18.8 million outstanding shares held by The Coca-Cola Company for approximately $2.4 billion, funded by cash on hand and a $1.2 billion term loan.
- The company's Board of Directors approved a $1.0 billion share repurchase program in August 2024.
- Following the November 2025 transaction, the initial $1.0 billion repurchase program was reduced to $400 million, with approximately $136.3 million remaining authorized for future repurchases.
Share Issuance
- In May 2025, Coca-Cola Consolidated stockholders approved a 10-for-1 stock split for its Common Stock and Class B Common Stock, which took effect around May 27, 2025.
- Shares outstanding for Coca-Cola Consolidated have declined, with 0.094 billion shares in 2025, down 6.71% from 2024, and 0.101 billion shares in 2024, a 3.3% decline from 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- Coca-Cola Consolidated's capital expenditures for fiscal year 2024 peaked at $371 million.
- Capital expenditures averaged $261.9 million annually for the fiscal years ending December 2020 to 2024.
- The company's capital expenditures were $282.3 million in 2023, $298.6 million in 2022, and $155.7 million in 2021.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 78.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 102.9 |
| Rev LTM | 28,389 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,560 |
| FCF LTM | 4,752 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,886 |
| CFO LTM | 7,020 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,052 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 11.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 102.9 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.3 |
| P/EBIT | 17.8 |
| P/E | 24.0 |
| P/CFO | 19.5 |
| Total Yield | 6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 32.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 9.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -37.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonalcoholic Beverages | 7,184 | 6,839 | 6,563 | 6,081 | 5,433 |
| All Other | 326 | 343 | 371 | 399 | 367 |
| Eliminations | -282 | -283 | -280 | -280 | -237 |
| Total | 7,228 | 6,900 | 6,654 | 6,201 | 5,563 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonalcoholic Beverages | 925 | 907 | 841 | 639 | 457 |
| All Other | 25 | 13 | -7 | 2 | -18 |
| Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 951 | 920 | 834 | 641 | 439 |
| $ Mil | 2017 | 2016 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Other | 106 | 76 | 45 |
| Eliminations | -6 | -33 | -11 |
| Nonalcoholic Beverages | 2,349 | 1,808 | 1,399 |
| Total | 2,449 | 1,851 | 1,433 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $188.03 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 12.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $183.57 | $164.65 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 2.4% | 14.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 49.5% | 35.3% |
| Downside Capture | -82.15 | -36.03 |
| Upside Capture | -28.33 | 35.78 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -12.6% | -4.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.48 | 0.28 | 0.40 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.42 |
| Up Beta | 0.39 | 1.22 | 0.89 | 0.81 | 0.60 | 0.41 |
| Down Beta | -3.94 | -3.74 | 0.23 | -0.35 | -0.60 | 0.48 |
| Up Capture | -116% | -20% | -10% | 11% | 40% | 26% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 34 | 70 | 146 | 402 |
| Down Capture | 240% | 122% | 73% | -3% | 1% | 48% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 20 | 29 | 54 | 104 | 349 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with COKE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COKE | 76.3% | 35.3% | 1.66 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.8% | 13.1% | 0.31 | 30.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.4% | 1.26 | -4.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.8% | 27.7% | 0.70 | 4.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.8% | 18.6% | 0.92 | -3.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 16.1% | 13.6% | 0.85 | 18.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.2% | 42.5% | -1.25 | -5.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with COKE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COKE | 37.6% | 37.5% | 0.94 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.0% | 13.4% | 0.30 | 39.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 29.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 19.5% | 0.28 | 2.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.9% | 0.08 | 30.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.9% | 54.0% | 0.39 | 10.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with COKE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COKE | 30.5% | 37.1% | 0.83 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.4% | 14.8% | 0.37 | 40.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 34.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.1% | 0.60 | 1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 7.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 35.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 54.7% | 66.4% | 0.95 | 8.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/9/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | -15.6% | -21.6% | -14.5% |
| 2/18/2026 | 3.8% | 17.5% | 23.6% |
| 10/29/2025 | 3.5% | 5.3% | 26.7% |
| 7/24/2025 | 6.5% | 0.2% | 6.9% |
| 4/30/2025 | -12.0% | -12.0% | -15.4% |
| 2/20/2025 | -4.1% | -2.9% | -9.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | -6.3% | -0.7% | 8.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | 8.3% | 9.4% | 15.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 7.4% | 9.4% | 16.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.2% | -3.0% | -12.2% |
| Max Positive | 17.9% | 21.4% | 49.3% |
| Max Negative | -23.5% | -21.6% | -17.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | -15.6% | -21.6% | -14.5% |
| 2/18/2026 | 3.8% | 17.5% | 23.6% |
| 10/29/2025 | 3.5% | 5.3% | 26.7% |
| 7/24/2025 | 6.5% | 0.2% | 6.9% |
| 4/30/2025 | -12.0% | -12.0% | -15.4% |
| 2/20/2025 | -4.1% | -2.9% | -9.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | -6.3% | -0.7% | 8.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | 8.3% | 9.4% | 15.7% |
| 5/6/2024 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 16.4% |
| 2/21/2024 | -3.3% | -1.0% | 5.1% |
| 11/1/2023 | 0.4% | 5.1% | 13.4% |
| 8/2/2023 | 13.4% | 11.5% | 12.0% |
| 5/3/2023 | 11.3% | 6.6% | 17.1% |
| 2/22/2023 | 9.8% | 6.2% | -1.0% |
| 11/1/2022 | -3.9% | 0.0% | 5.1% |
| 8/2/2022 | -1.0% | -3.0% | -7.5% |
| 5/3/2022 | 10.3% | 11.8% | 34.0% |
| 2/22/2022 | -23.5% | -17.1% | -17.1% |
| 11/9/2021 | 12.4% | 21.4% | 26.3% |
| 8/10/2021 | 1.5% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| 5/11/2021 | 6.2% | 14.7% | 49.3% |
| 2/26/2021 | 0.1% | 5.9% | 17.9% |
| 11/3/2020 | 0.1% | 10.2% | 12.7% |
| 8/4/2020 | 17.9% | 18.8% | 23.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 7.4% | 9.4% | 16.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.2% | -3.0% | -12.2% |
| Max Positive | 17.9% | 21.4% | 49.3% |
| Max Negative | -23.5% | -21.6% | -17.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/11/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/25/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/05/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 300.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 300.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 300.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 300.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
COKE Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The analysis yields a highly attractive probability-adjusted skew of 3.51x. This is driven by the combination of a 'RESILIENT' competitive moat and a tangible, underappreciated Alpha Driver in margin expansion. The primary risk (EPR costs) is identifiable and event-driven, but the high probability assigned to the bull case reflects the company's strong operational momentum and dominant market position, making the risk-reward profile compelling.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowCOKE is a dominant beverage bottler in a mature, slow-growth market. The investment thesis hinges on capital efficiency (margin expansion) and pricing power, which are the core focal points for a Mature Cash Cow archetype, not rapid top-line growth.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is that Coca-Cola Consolidated has a significant and underappreciated runway to expand operating margins, creating substantial EPS growth even with modest revenue growth. The company's current operating margin of ~13% lags its closest integrated peer, Keurig Dr Pepper, by approximately 1670 basis points, representing a clear target for operational efficiency gains.
- There is a potential +1670bps operating margin expansion runway if COKE could approach the profitability of its peer KDP's U.S. Refreshment Beverages segment (29.8% adj. operating margin).
- The company has demonstrated operational leverage, with income from operations growing 10.3% in 2024, significantly outpacing the 3.7% increase in net sales.
- Q3 2025 results showed a strong inflection with physical case volume growing +3.3%, a sharp reversal from a -6.6% decline in Q1 2025, proving the company can drive volume and price simultaneously.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant near-term risk is the implementation of new Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) laws across multiple states in which COKE operates. These regulations shift the financial burden of recycling directly onto producers, creating a new, unavoidable operating expense that directly threatens the margin expansion thesis.
- Multiple states have enacted EPR laws with key implementation deadlines and fee payments beginning in 2026.
- For example, Colorado required producers to pay dues starting January 1, 2026, and Maine requires registration by May 2026.
- The risk is categorized as high likelihood and high impact, with historical precedent from other industries suggesting a potential 10-15% stock drop if guidance is negatively impacted.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Physical Case Volume Growth | > 1.5% | Must remain positive to prove that revenue growth is healthy and not solely reliant on price increases, which may not be sustainable. Staying above 1.5% confirms strong consumer demand. |
| Operating Margin (YoY Change) | > +50 bps | This is the core of the Alpha Driver thesis. The company must demonstrate consistent progress in expanding margins to justify a higher valuation multiple. |
| 2026 Guidance for SG&A Expenses | Clarity on EPR Cost Impact | The market needs to quantify the impact of the 'Anti-Alpha' risk. The Q4 earnings call on Feb 18, 2026, is the key catalyst to watch for management's initial estimate of these new regulatory costs. |
The Sustainable Growth Engine: Price vs. Volume
BULL VIEW
Bulls see a successful operational turnaround, with accelerating volume growth (+3.3% Q3) outperforming peers (PEP -4%), proving the franchise's health and justifying strong pricing power.
CORE TENSION
Can COKE sustain revenue growth via volume recovery and margin expansion, or is it overly reliant on potentially unsustainable price hikes amid growing consumer and regulatory pressures?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The Q3 2025 report showing a balanced 6.9% sales growth from both volume (+3.3%) and price/mix (+3.6%) shows the bull case is currently executing, but upcoming EPR law costs represent a tangible threat.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see growth as fragile, dependent on price increases that may not stick if consumer financial strain worsens, alongside new state-level regulatory costs (EPR laws) compressing margins.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 18, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & 2026 Guidance Watch: Revenue growth composition (price/mix vs. volume) and any specific financial provision for new state-level EPR (packaging tax) laws in 2026 guidance. |
H1 2026 (Ongoing) | Macro Data on Consumer Health Watch: Monthly US consumer credit delinquency rates and weekly jobless claims. A sustained uptick signals consumer weakness. |
Next 6 Months | Teamsters Contract Negotiations Update Watch: Press releases from the Teamsters Union regarding contract negotiations, particularly around wage and healthcare cost demands. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-19 | Post-Earnings Momentum Details: Continued upward drift following the positive Q2 earnings report in late July as investors digested the company's stabilizing performance. | Rose significantly by 2.95% $115.23 -> $118.63 |
2025-09-08 | General Market Recovery Details: Stock participated in a broader market rally after a period of weakness in late August and early September. | Modest 1.40% gain $120.37 -> $122.06 |
2025-11-20 | Reached 52-Week High Details: Following strong Q3 earnings and the removal of the KO stock overhang, the stock price reached new all-time highs, prompting some profit-taking. | Slight -1.15% pullback $163.11 -> $161.24 |
2025-07-24 | Q2 2025 Earnings Release Details: Announced a 3% increase in net sales versus the prior year's second quarter, with gross profit growing by 4%. The positive results signaled stabilization after a weaker Q1. | Stock Surged +6.49% $111.16 -> $118.37 |
2025-10-29 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported strong 6.9% sales growth, driven by a significant rebound in physical case volume (+3.3%), beating competitor trends and signaling a successful operational turnaround. | Rose significantly by 3.53% $127.76 -> $132.27 |
2025-11-11 | Major Shareholder Divestiture Details: The Coca-Cola Company (KO) announced the sale of its entire stake in Coca-Cola Consolidated. The large transaction was seen as removing an overhang, driving the stock higher. | Stock Surged +4.68% $145.24 -> $152.03 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Volatility is moderate and compressing, not explosive. The Neutral sentiment, resulting from a stalemate between strong execution and forward risks, combined with medium visibility, warrants a standard allocation. Not a 'fat pitch' but a solid compounder.
Diversification Alternatives
MNST
INDUSTRYAvoids the 'legacy CSD decline' risk of COKE by dominating the high-growth energy drink category. Possesses a debt-free balance sheet and superior profit margins.
KDP
INDUSTRYOffers a more diversified portfolio across coffee and various beverage categories, reducing reliance on carbonated soft drinks. Actively expanding into high-growth energy drinks.
Coca-Cola Consolidated is the largest US bottler, operating a high-volume distribution business with pricing power derived from The Coca-Cola Company's brands, while navigating input cost volatility (aluminum) and high customer concentration.
Filter all news through the lens of operating leverage: how do volume, price, and input costs translate to gross margin and operating income?
Volume growth exceeding 1-2% annually; gross margin expansion driven by price increases that outpace input cost inflation (especially aluminum); successful contract renewals with major retailers.
Sustained decline in 'Sparkling' beverage volumes; sharp, unhedged increases in aluminum or freight costs; loss of shelf space or unfavorable contract terms with Walmart or Kroger.
Quarterly fluctuations in sales to a single customer (concentration is known); minor brand launches or discontinuations by The Coca-Cola Company (impact is diluted across the portfolio); commentary on international Coca-Cola markets (COKE is US-only).
Repricing Catalyst
Sustained ability to pass through pricing to consumers, which, combined with moderating inflation in aluminum and freight, could drive operating margin expansion. The company's Q4 2025 results showed a 10.7% increase in income from operations, demonstrating this leverage.
Sparkling Beverages
$4.3B TTM (59% of Total) · 39.7% MarginWhat It Is
Carbonated soft drinks, including brands like Coca-Cola, Diet Coke, Sprite, and Dr Pepper.
Who Pays & How
Major retailers like Walmart and Kroger are the largest customers, collectively accounting for 29% of 2025 net sales. They pay to stock these high-demand brands that drive significant consumer foot traffic. The exclusive distribution rights in 14 states and D.C. create a lock-in for retailers wanting to carry these specific products in those territories.
Competition
Still Beverages
$2.4B TTM (33% of Total) · 39.7% MarginWhat It Is
Non-carbonated beverages, including brands like Monster, Dasani, Powerade, BODYARMOR, Vitaminwater, Topo Chico and Core Power.
Who Pays & How
Major retailers like Walmart and Kroger. They pay to offer a broad portfolio of non-carbonated beverages that cater to consumer trends in energy, hydration, and health & wellness. The strength of brands like Monster and Powerade ensures retailer demand.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages Resources |
| Beverage Daily |
| BevNET |
| Beverage Industry |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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