Tearsheet

Cummins (CMI)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $512.1 | Market Cap: $70.7 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Cummins (CMI)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $512.1
Market Cap: $70.7 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.6%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CMI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the 28.7% stock movement for Cummins (CMI) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:

1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Adjusted Earnings and Revenue Beat: Cummins reported third-quarter 2025 revenues of $8.3 billion, surpassing analyst estimates, despite a slight year-over-year decline. The company also delivered adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.59, which significantly beat Street expectations, indicating robust operational performance.

2. Robust Growth in Power Systems Driven by Data Center Demand: The Power Systems segment demonstrated strong performance, with sales increasing by 18%. This growth was primarily fueled by heightened demand for power generation equipment, particularly for data centers, a market segment identified as a significant growth driver for the company.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CMI Return31%-2%14%2%49%49%231%
Peers Return23%22%-2%29%15%13%146%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CMI Win Rate67%58%50%42%67%80% 
Peers Win Rate60%65%38%58%58%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CMI Max Drawdown-42%-7%-14%-14%-4%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-7%-28%-8%-5%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CAT, GWW, XYL, IR, FTV. See CMI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCMIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven634 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven74 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-34.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven53.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven582 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-75.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven315.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days1480 days

Compare to CAT, GWW, XYL, IR, FTV


In The Past

Cummins's stock fell -32.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -32.6% loss requires a 48.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Cummins (CMI)

Better Bets than Cummins (CMI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CMI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cummins

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CMICATGWWXYLIRFTVMedian
NameCummins Caterpil.W.W. Gra.Xylem Ingersol.Fortive  
Mkt Price510.74599.15968.91140.8779.9953.38325.81
Mkt Cap70.5281.446.334.331.717.740.3
Rev LTM33,58163,13917,7508,8947,4587,24413,322
Op Inc LTM3,75411,5102,4941,2321,4771,2551,986
FCF LTM2,2787,7401,2329251,2501,0881,241
FCF 3Y Avg1,5948,3491,5107531,2001,2411,375
CFO LTM3,50911,3732,0481,2731,3831,2201,715
CFO 3Y Avg2,78611,5172,0411,0531,3281,3541,697

Growth & Margins

CMICATGWWXYLIRFTVMedian
NameCummins Caterpil.W.W. Gra.Xylem Ingersol.Fortive  
Rev Chg LTM-1.8%-4.9%4.8%5.6%4.2%27.9%4.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.4%5.8%6.3%18.9%9.4%9.4%9.4%
Rev Chg Q-1.6%-0.7%6.1%7.8%5.1%2.3%3.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.4%-0.2%1.5%1.9%1.3%0.3%0.8%
Op Mgn LTM11.2%18.2%14.1%13.9%19.8%17.3%15.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.4%18.8%14.9%12.1%19.1%18.0%16.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%-0.9%-1.2%0.6%-0.1%-0.2%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM10.4%18.0%11.5%14.3%18.5%16.8%15.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.3%17.8%12.0%13.0%18.7%21.9%15.4%
FCF/Rev LTM6.8%12.3%6.9%10.4%16.8%15.0%11.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.8%12.9%8.9%9.2%16.9%20.1%11.1%

Valuation

CMICATGWWXYLIRFTVMedian
NameCummins Caterpil.W.W. Gra.Xylem Ingersol.Fortive  
Mkt Cap70.5281.446.334.331.717.740.3
P/S1.72.92.64.04.42.22.7
P/EBIT14.014.918.129.427.813.116.5
P/E21.819.326.337.960.026.926.6
P/CFO16.616.022.228.223.713.319.4
Total Yield6.3%6.7%4.3%3.7%1.8%4.3%4.3%
Dividend Yield1.8%1.5%0.5%1.1%0.1%0.6%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.8%5.4%3.5%2.5%3.7%5.5%3.8%
D/E0.10.20.10.10.10.20.1
Net D/E0.10.20.00.00.10.20.1

Returns

CMICATGWWXYLIRFTVMedian
NameCummins Caterpil.W.W. Gra.Xylem Ingersol.Fortive  
1M Rtn19.6%9.4%1.6%-5.6%3.6%6.2%4.9%
3M Rtn27.9%43.0%-5.5%-0.5%1.0%12.5%6.7%
6M Rtn59.6%72.8%-10.3%11.8%-2.2%-2.7%4.8%
12M Rtn37.7%52.2%-18.0%11.8%-23.0%-11.2%0.3%
3Y Rtn123.6%171.1%69.8%30.3%50.5%5.0%60.1%
1M Excs Rtn18.4%8.2%0.3%-6.9%2.3%4.9%3.6%
3M Excs Rtn22.5%36.2%-8.0%-5.3%-7.0%6.0%0.3%
6M Excs Rtn44.1%57.4%-25.8%-3.6%-17.7%-18.1%-10.7%
12M Excs Rtn24.7%37.7%-31.5%-1.2%-37.2%-24.8%-13.0%
3Y Excs Rtn49.3%94.9%-4.8%-40.4%-21.4%-65.7%-13.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Components13,4099,7367,6654,6505,253
Engine11,68410,9459,9545,9257,570
Distribution10,2498,9297,7727,1108,040
Power Systems5,6735,0334,4152,0552,670
Accelera3541981167138
Intersegment sales-7,304-6,767-5,901  
Total34,06528,07424,02119,81123,571


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,442,412
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-10.8%
Average Daily Volume1,003,313
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.44
Basic Shares Quantity138,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023212202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-K 12/31/2021