Tearsheet

Cummins (CMI)


Market Price (11/3/2025): $437.68 | Market Cap: $60.3 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Cummins (CMI)


Market Price (11/3/2025): $437.68
Market Cap: $60.3 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.8%, Dist 3Y High is -0.8%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.7%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.8%, Dist 3Y High is -0.8%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.7%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

CMI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Cummins (CMI) stock moved by 19.7% for the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 3, 2025: 1. Exceeding Q2 2025 Earnings Expectations. Cummins reported strong second-quarter 2025 results on August 5, 2025, significantly surpassing Wall Street expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company announced diluted EPS of $6.43, beating analyst estimates of $4.99 to $5.21, and revenues of $8.6 billion, which also exceeded forecasts. This performance was largely driven by record profitability in its Power Systems and Distribution segments.

2. Consecutive Quarterly Dividend Increases. Cummins demonstrated its commitment to shareholder returns by increasing its quarterly common stock cash dividend twice within this period. On July 15, 2025, the dividend was raised from $1.82 to $2.00 per share, marking its 16th consecutive year of dividend growth. This was further reinforced on October 14, 2025, with the declaration of another $2.00 per share quarterly dividend, payable in December, underscoring strong financial performance and a consistent strategy of progressive shareholder remuneration for 20 consecutive years.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CMI Return31%-2%14%2%49%28%183%
Peers Return23%22%-2%29%15%12%143%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CMI Win Rate67%58%50%42%67%80% 
Peers Win Rate60%65%38%58%58%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CMI Max Drawdown-42%-7%-14%-14%-4%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-7%-28%-8%-5%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CAT, GWW, XYL, IR, FTV. See CMI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/31/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCMIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven634 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven74 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-34.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven53.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven582 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-75.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven315.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days1480 days

Compare to CAT, GWW, XYL, IR, FTV


In The Past

Cummins's stock fell -32.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -32.6% loss requires a 48.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Cummins (CMI)

Better Bets than Cummins (CMI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CMI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
0.0%0.0%0.0%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.8%-5.8%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.0%0.0%0.0%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
0.0%0.0%0.0%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.8%-5.8%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cummins

Financials

CMICATGWWXYLIRFTVMedian
NameCummins Caterpil.W.W. Gra.Xylem Ingersol.Fortive  
Mkt Price437.68577.26979.00150.8576.3350.34294.26
Mkt Cap60.3271.146.836.730.216.741.8
Rev LTM33,72063,13917,7508,8947,4587,24413,322
Op Inc LTM3,75511,5102,4941,2321,4771,2551,986
FCF LTM1,6527,7401,2329251,2501,0881,241
FCF 3Y Avg1,3188,3491,5107531,2001,2411,280
CFO LTM2,84411,3732,0481,2731,3831,2201,715
CFO 3Y Avg2,47811,5172,0411,0531,3281,3541,697

Growth & Margins

CMICATGWWXYLIRFTVMedian
NameCummins Caterpil.W.W. Gra.Xylem Ingersol.Fortive  
Rev Chg LTM-1.3%-4.9%4.8%5.6%4.2%27.9%4.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.6%5.8%6.3%18.9%9.4%9.4%9.4%
Rev Chg Q-1.7%-0.7%6.1%7.8%5.1%2.3%3.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.5%-0.2%1.5%1.9%1.3%0.3%0.8%
Op Mgn LTM11.1%18.2%14.1%13.9%19.8%17.3%15.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.1%18.8%14.9%12.1%19.1%18.0%16.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%-0.9%-1.2%0.6%-0.1%-0.2%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM8.4%18.0%11.5%14.3%18.5%16.8%15.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.4%17.8%12.0%13.0%18.7%21.9%15.4%
FCF/Rev LTM4.9%12.3%6.9%10.4%16.8%15.0%11.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.9%12.9%8.9%9.2%16.9%20.1%11.1%

Valuation

CMICATGWWXYLIRFTVMedian
NameCummins Caterpil.W.W. Gra.Xylem Ingersol.Fortive  
Mkt Cap60.3271.146.836.730.216.741.8
P/S1.84.32.64.14.12.33.3
P/EBIT13.822.218.630.125.713.520.4
P/E20.528.727.038.755.527.628.2
P/CFO21.223.822.828.821.913.722.4
Total Yield6.5%4.5%4.2%3.6%1.9%4.2%4.2%
Dividend Yield1.7%1.0%0.5%1.0%0.1%0.6%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.3%5.4%3.5%2.5%3.7%5.5%3.6%
D/E0.10.20.10.10.20.20.1
Net D/E0.10.10.00.00.10.20.1

Returns

CMICATGWWXYLIRFTVMedian
NameCummins Caterpil.W.W. Gra.Xylem Ingersol.Fortive  
1M Rtn1.1%16.3%2.3%0.7%-9.1%-0.1%0.9%
3M Rtn23.6%35.0%5.2%6.4%1.8%8.3%7.3%
6M Rtn47.5%79.5%-7.9%22.1%-0.5%-2.5%10.8%
12M Rtn36.0%54.4%-10.7%27.8%-18.7%-7.5%10.1%
3Y Rtn102.3%177.1%69.8%45.9%49.1%6.6%59.4%
1M Excs Rtn-0.7%16.2%0.8%-0.6%-11.2%-0.7%-0.7%
3M Excs Rtn13.6%25.4%-3.7%-3.0%-10.9%-1.3%-2.2%
6M Excs Rtn27.3%59.2%-28.2%1.8%-20.8%-22.8%-9.5%
12M Excs Rtn17.6%33.9%-27.4%0.3%-38.7%-28.8%-13.6%
3Y Excs Rtn20.2%129.9%11.5%-20.8%-21.0%-72.3%-4.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Components13,4099,7367,6656,0245,253
Engine11,68410,9459,9548,0227,570
Distribution10,2498,9297,7727,1368,040
Power Systems5,6735,0334,4153,6312,670
Accelera3541981167238
Intersegment sales-7,304-6,767-5,901-5,074 
Total34,06528,07424,02119,81123,571


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,455,349
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302025-11.9%
Average Daily Volume799,066
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.82
Basic Shares Quantity137,800,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023212202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211102202110-Q 10/3/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Quintos Karen H 8202025Sell404.69104,0472,640,072Form
1Bush Jennifer MaryVP & Pres. - Power Systems8122025Sell388.13520201,8265,872,426Form
2Stone John H 5162025Buy332.081,000332,080810,607Form
3RUMSEY JENNIFERChair and CEO1292025Sell348.841188516,525Form
4Di Leo Allen Bruno V 11132024Sell358.554,9451,773,0431,605,636Form