Tearsheet

Cummins (CMI)


Market Price (11/17/2025): $462.61 | Market Cap: $63.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Cummins (CMI)


Market Price (11/17/2025): $462.61
Market Cap: $63.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.5%, Dist 3Y High is -4.5%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.6%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 3.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.3 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.5%, Dist 3Y High is -4.5%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.6%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

CMI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Cummins (CMI) stock moved by 26.5% during the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 7, 2025: **1. Strong Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat.** Cummins reported robust second-quarter results on August 5, 2025, surpassing analyst estimates for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company delivered an EPS of $6.43 against an estimated $4.99, and revenue reached $8.64 billion, exceeding the $8.45 billion estimate. This strong performance was primarily driven by record profitability within its Power Systems and Distribution segments.

**2. Positive Third Quarter 2025 Revenue Performance and Segment Growth.** Despite a mixed third-quarter earnings report on November 6, 2025, where EPS missed expectations, Cummins' revenue of $8.32 billion exceeded forecasts. The Power Systems and Distribution segments continued to exhibit strong growth, largely fueled by increasing demand for backup power solutions, particularly for data centers. This segment strength and effective cost management helped the stock rise even with the earnings per share miss.

**3. Multiple Analyst Upgrades and Raised Price Targets.** During the period from August to October 2025, several prominent financial analysts upgraded their ratings for Cummins' stock and increased their price targets. These positive adjustments from firms like Wolfe Research, Melius Research, Citigroup, Truist Securities, JP Morgan, and Barclays signaled growing market confidence in Cummins' future performance and outlook.

**4. Increased Quarterly Dividend Payouts.** Cummins demonstrated its commitment to shareholder returns by increasing its quarterly common stock cash dividend. An increase was announced with the second-quarter results on August 5, 2025, and another dividend was declared on October 14, 2025, marking the 16th consecutive year of dividend increases for the company.

**5. Strategic Collaboration in Hybrid Powertrain Development.** In September 2025, Cummins announced a significant collaboration with Komatsu to develop hybrid powertrains for heavy mining equipment. This strategic partnership highlights Cummins' dedication to innovation and decarbonization efforts, potentially opening new market opportunities and strengthening its position in sustainable power solutions.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CMI Return31%-2%14%2%49%35%199%
Peers Return23%22%-2%29%15%8%135%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CMI Win Rate67%58%50%42%67%80% 
Peers Win Rate60%65%38%58%58%54% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CMI Max Drawdown-42%-7%-14%-14%-4%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-7%-28%-8%-5%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CAT, GWW, XYL, IR, FTV. See CMI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/14/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCMIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven634 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-42.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven74.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven74 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-34.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven53.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven582 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-75.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven315.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days1480 days

Compare to CAT, GWW, XYL, IR, FTV


In The Past

Cummins's stock fell -32.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -32.6% loss requires a 48.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Cummins (CMI)

Better Bets than Cummins (CMI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CMI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.3%-10.3%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.2%-10.2%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-3.4%-3.4%-4.8%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.1%-7.1%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-4.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.3%-10.3%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.2%-10.2%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-3.4%-3.4%-4.8%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.1%-7.1%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-4.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cummins

Financials

CMICATGWWXYLIRFTVMedian
NameCummins Caterpil.W.W. Gra.Xylem Ingersol.Fortive  
Mkt Price462.61554.03926.21142.7375.4751.59302.67
Mkt Cap63.8260.244.334.729.917.139.5
Rev LTM33,58163,13917,7508,8947,4587,24413,322
Op Inc LTM3,75411,5102,4941,2321,4771,2551,986
FCF LTM2,2787,7401,2329251,2501,0881,241
FCF 3Y Avg1,5948,3491,5107531,2001,2411,375
CFO LTM3,50911,3732,0481,2731,3831,2201,715
CFO 3Y Avg2,78611,5172,0411,0531,3281,3541,697

Growth & Margins

CMICATGWWXYLIRFTVMedian
NameCummins Caterpil.W.W. Gra.Xylem Ingersol.Fortive  
Rev Chg LTM-1.8%-4.9%4.8%5.6%4.2%27.9%4.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg9.4%5.8%6.3%18.9%9.4%9.4%9.4%
Rev Chg Q-1.6%-0.7%6.1%7.8%5.1%2.3%3.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.4%-0.2%1.5%1.9%1.3%0.3%0.8%
Op Mgn LTM11.2%18.2%14.1%13.9%19.8%17.3%15.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.4%18.8%14.9%12.1%19.1%18.0%16.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%-0.9%-1.2%0.6%-0.1%-0.2%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM10.4%18.0%11.5%14.3%18.5%16.8%15.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.3%17.8%12.0%13.0%18.7%21.9%15.4%
FCF/Rev LTM6.8%12.3%6.9%10.4%16.8%15.0%11.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.8%12.9%8.9%9.2%16.9%20.1%11.1%

Valuation

CMICATGWWXYLIRFTVMedian
NameCummins Caterpil.W.W. Gra.Xylem Ingersol.Fortive  
Mkt Cap63.8260.244.334.729.917.139.5
P/S1.94.12.53.94.02.43.2
P/EBIT15.321.317.628.525.413.819.5
P/E23.927.625.636.754.828.328.0
P/CFO18.222.921.627.321.614.021.6
Total Yield5.8%4.7%4.4%3.8%1.9%4.1%4.3%
Dividend Yield1.6%1.0%0.5%1.1%0.1%0.6%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.8%5.4%3.5%2.5%3.7%5.5%3.8%
D/E0.10.20.10.10.20.20.1
Net D/E0.10.10.00.00.10.20.1

Returns

CMICATGWWXYLIRFTVMedian
NameCummins Caterpil.W.W. Gra.Xylem Ingersol.Fortive  
1M Rtn12.3%5.1%-2.8%-2.2%-2.2%6.0%1.5%
3M Rtn16.4%36.3%-4.3%1.6%-3.6%7.3%4.4%
6M Rtn39.8%57.7%-15.5%12.1%-10.1%-7.8%2.2%
12M Rtn30.5%46.4%-20.7%18.6%-26.2%-9.6%4.5%
3Y Rtn99.2%153.0%60.2%33.5%40.7%2.7%50.5%
1M Excs Rtn7.9%0.8%-4.3%-3.0%-2.0%4.4%-0.6%
3M Excs Rtn11.3%30.2%-9.5%-2.8%-8.7%3.8%0.5%
6M Excs Rtn26.8%44.7%-28.5%-0.9%-23.1%-20.8%-10.8%
12M Excs Rtn20.4%30.6%-35.2%3.2%-40.0%-22.4%-9.6%
3Y Excs Rtn29.8%78.9%-17.7%-39.3%-33.2%-73.6%-25.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Components13,4099,7367,6654,6505,253
Engine11,68410,9459,9545,9257,570
Distribution10,2498,9297,7727,1108,040
Power Systems5,6735,0334,4152,0552,670
Accelera3541981167138
Intersegment sales-7,304-6,767-5,901  
Total34,06528,07424,02119,81123,571


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,617,268
Short Interest: % Change Since 1015202511.1%
Average Daily Volume941,153
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.72
Basic Shares Quantity138,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/20255.4%9.2% 
8/5/20253.2%7.4%9.0%
5/5/20250.8%2.3%8.8%
2/4/20254.4%7.4%0.2%
11/5/20248.9%10.1%16.8%
8/1/20244.9%0.1%6.6%
5/2/2024-1.3%1.8%-0.2%
2/6/20244.3%6.5%14.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141617
# Negative1087
Median Positive3.5%3.6%7.0%
Median Negative-1.4%-2.4%-11.9%
Max Positive8.9%10.1%16.8%
Max Negative-7.5%-9.0%-16.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023212202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022214202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Quintos Karen H 8202025Sell404.69104,0472,640,072Form
1Bush Jennifer MaryVP & Pres. - Power Systems8122025Sell388.13520201,8265,872,426Form
2Stone John H 5162025Buy332.081,000332,080810,607Form
3RUMSEY JENNIFERChair and CEO1292025Sell348.841188516,525Form
4Di Leo Allen Bruno V 11132024Sell358.554,9451,773,0431,605,636Form