Cummins (CMI)
Market Price (11/3/2025): $437.68 | Market Cap: $60.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Cummins (CMI)
Market Price (11/3/2025): $437.68Market Cap: $60.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
          Investment Highlights
          
            Why It Matters
            
              Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
              1. Generates cash flow
              The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
              2. Riding a trend
              Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
            
          
        
        
        | Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.8%, Dist 3Y High is -0.8% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.7% | 
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 2.8 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | 
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5% | 
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 2.8 Bil | 
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | 
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.8%, Dist 3Y High is -0.8% | 
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.7% | 
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
CMI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Cummins (CMI) stock moved by 19.7% for the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 3, 2025:
1. Exceeding Q2 2025 Earnings Expectations.
Cummins reported strong second-quarter 2025 results on August 5, 2025, significantly surpassing Wall Street expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company announced diluted EPS of $6.43, beating analyst estimates of $4.99 to $5.21, and revenues of $8.6 billion, which also exceeded forecasts. This performance was largely driven by record profitability in its Power Systems and Distribution segments.
2. Consecutive Quarterly Dividend Increases.
Cummins demonstrated its commitment to shareholder returns by increasing its quarterly common stock cash dividend twice within this period. On July 15, 2025, the dividend was raised from $1.82 to $2.00 per share, marking its 16th consecutive year of dividend growth. This was further reinforced on October 14, 2025, with the declaration of another $2.00 per share quarterly dividend, payable in December, underscoring strong financial performance and a consistent strategy of progressive shareholder remuneration for 20 consecutive years.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CMI Return | 31% | -2% | 14% | 2% | 49% | 28% | 183% | 
| Peers Return | 23% | 22% | -2% | 29% | 15% | 12% | 143% | 
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% | 
Monthly Win Rates [3]  | |||||||
| CMI Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 65% | 38% | 58% | 58% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4]  | |||||||
| CMI Max Drawdown | -42% | -7% | -14% | -14% | -4% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -7% | -28% | -8% | -5% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CAT, GWW, XYL, IR, FTV. See CMI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/31/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CMI | S&P 500 | 
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.6% | -25.4% | 
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.5% | 34.1% | 
| Time to Breakeven | 634 days | 464 days | 
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.7% | -33.9% | 
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.5% | 51.3% | 
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 148 days | 
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -34.8% | -19.8% | 
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.4% | 24.7% | 
| Time to Breakeven | 582 days | 120 days | 
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.9% | -56.8% | 
| % Gain to Breakeven | 315.5% | 131.3% | 
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 1480 days | 
Compare to CAT, GWW, XYL, IR, FTV
In The Past
Cummins's stock fell -32.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -32.6% loss requires a 48.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Cummins Earnings Notes | |||
| How Low Can Cummins Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Cummins vs AT&T: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Cummins vs United Rentals: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Cummins vs GATX: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Day 8 of Gains Streak for Cummins Stock with 14% Return (vs. 18% YTD) [8/13/2025] | Notification | ||
| null | |||
| Day 7 of Gains Streak for Cummins Stock with 12% Return (vs. 16% YTD) [8/12/2025] | Notification | ||
| Better Bet Than CMI Stock: Pay Less Than Cummins To Get More From OKE, CCL | |||
| Better Bet Than CMI Stock: Pay Less Than Cummins To Get More From GTLS, HURN | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 30th, 2025 | ||
| Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 4th, 2025 | ||
| Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | September 19th, 2025 | ||
| CMI Stock Up 14% after 8-Day Win Streak | August 14th, 2025 | ||
| CMI Stock Up 12% after 7-Day Win Streak | August 13th, 2025 | 
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CMI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.8% | -5.8% | -10.5% | 
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.8% | 
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.8% | -5.8% | -10.5% | 
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.8% | 
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cummins
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 294.26 | 
| Mkt Cap | 41.8 | 
| Rev LTM | 13,322 | 
| Op Inc LTM | 1,986 | 
| FCF LTM | 1,241 | 
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,280 | 
| CFO LTM | 1,715 | 
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,697 | 
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% | 
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.4% | 
| Rev Chg Q | 3.7% | 
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% | 
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.7% | 
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.5% | 
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% | 
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.6% | 
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.4% | 
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.3% | 
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.1% | 
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 41.8 | 
| P/S | 3.3 | 
| P/EBIT | 20.4 | 
| P/E | 28.2 | 
| P/CFO | 22.4 | 
| Total Yield | 4.2% | 
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% | 
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% | 
| D/E | 0.1 | 
| Net D/E | 0.1 | 
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.9% | 
| 3M Rtn | 7.3% | 
| 6M Rtn | 10.8% | 
| 12M Rtn | 10.1% | 
| 3Y Rtn | 59.4% | 
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.7% | 
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.2% | 
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.5% | 
| 12M Excs Rtn | -13.6% | 
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -4.6% | 
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Components | 13,409 | 9,736 | 7,665 | 6,024 | 5,253 | 
| Engine | 11,684 | 10,945 | 9,954 | 8,022 | 7,570 | 
| Distribution | 10,249 | 8,929 | 7,772 | 7,136 | 8,040 | 
| Power Systems | 5,673 | 5,033 | 4,415 | 3,631 | 2,670 | 
| Accelera | 354 | 198 | 116 | 72 | 38 | 
| Intersegment sales | -7,304 | -6,767 | -5,901 | -5,074 | |
| Total | 34,065 | 28,074 | 24,021 | 19,811 | 23,571 | 
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing | 
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 | 
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 | 
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 | 
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 | 
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 | 
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 | 
| 12312023 | 2122024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 | 
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 | 
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 | 
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 | 
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 | 
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 | 
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 | 
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 | 
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 | 
| 9302021 | 11022021 | 10-Q 10/3/2021 | 
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Quintos Karen H | 8202025 | Sell | 404.69 | 10 | 4,047 | 2,640,072 | Form | |
| 1 | Bush Jennifer Mary | VP & Pres. - Power Systems | 8122025 | Sell | 388.13 | 520 | 201,826 | 5,872,426 | Form | 
| 2 | Stone John H | 5162025 | Buy | 332.08 | 1,000 | 332,080 | 810,607 | Form | |
| 3 | RUMSEY JENNIFER | Chair and CEO | 1292025 | Sell | 348.84 | 1 | 188 | 516,525 | Form | 
| 4 | Di Leo Allen Bruno V | 11132024 | Sell | 358.55 | 4,945 | 1,773,043 | 1,605,636 | Form | 
External Quote Links
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