Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Market Price (10/28/2025): $41.1 | Market Cap: $55.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
Market Price (10/28/2025): $41.1Market Cap: $55.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -54% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.8x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 2.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -54% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.8x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 28x |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
CMG Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CMG Return | 66% | 26% | -21% | 65% | 32% | -32% | 146% |
| Peers Return | 17% | 17% | -1% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 77% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CMG Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 22% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 53% | 43% | 58% | 52% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CMG Max Drawdown | -44% | -6% | -31% | -2% | -3% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -7% | -25% | -6% | -13% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, SBUX, YUM, QSR, TXRH. See CMG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/27/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CMG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 316 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 100.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -49.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 183 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -74.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 293.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 572 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MCD, SBUX, YUM, QSR, TXRH
In The Past
Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock fell -38.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/23/2021. A -38.1% loss requires a 61.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CMG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -17.6% | -17.6% | -22.1% |
| 09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.2% | -14.2% | -14.2% |
| 09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -9.0% |
| 09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -6.1% |
| 09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 13.2% | 13.2% | -11.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -17.6% | -17.6% | -22.1% |
| 09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.2% | -14.2% | -14.2% |
| 09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.0% | -9.0% | -9.0% |
| 09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -6.1% |
| 09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 13.2% | 13.2% | -11.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Chipotle Mexican Grill
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 115.10 |
| Mkt Cap | 47.6 |
| Rev LTM | 10,342 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,394 |
| FCF LTM | 1,500 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,367 |
| CFO LTM | 1,963 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,801 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 22.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 47.6 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | 20.2 |
| P/E | 27.1 |
| P/CFO | 21.0 |
| Total Yield | 5.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -22.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -53.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/23/2025 | -13.3% | -17.1% | -18.7% |
| 4/23/2025 | 1.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% |
| 2/4/2025 | -2.6% | -4.8% | -12.8% |
| 10/29/2024 | -7.9% | -7.1% | 2.6% |
| 7/24/2024 | -1.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% |
| 4/24/2024 | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% |
| 2/6/2024 | 7.2% | 4.5% | 8.1% |
| 10/26/2023 | 4.5% | 12.7% | 22.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.9% | -6.7% | -10.4% |
| Max Positive | 14.7% | 17.7% | 30.9% |
| Max Negative | -13.3% | -17.1% | -18.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2052025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 10272021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Boatwright Scott | Chief Executive Officer | 6062025 | Sell | 52.48 | 19,000 | 997,133 | 17,386,384 | Form |
| 1 | McConnell Jamie | Chief Accountg & Admin Officer | 5152025 | Sell | 52.42 | 3,087 | 161,829 | 1,471,193 | Form |
| 2 | Gutierrez Mauricio | 3072025 | Buy | 53.00 | 9,400 | 498,200 | 1,664,200 | Form | |
| 3 | Garner Curtis E | Chief Customer & Techlgy Ofcr | 2112025 | Sell | 57.31 | 15,750 | 902,563 | 22,622,188 | Form |
| 4 | Garner Curtis E | Chief Customer & Techlgy Ofcr | 1102025 | Sell | 58.24 | 15,750 | 917,261 | 23,907,843 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |