Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -1.8%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 65%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.0%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.1 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 18%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include AI in Financial Services, Crypto & Blockchain, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Algorithmic Trading, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.6%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 65%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.1 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 18%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include AI in Financial Services, Crypto & Blockchain, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Algorithmic Trading, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -1.8%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x
7 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CME Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Continued Strong Average Daily Volume (ADV) Growth: CME Group reported robust average daily volumes across various asset classes throughout the period. This included its second-highest August ADV of 28.1 million contracts with record cryptocurrency product volumes, second-highest Q3 and September ADV of 25.3 million and 26.1 million contracts respectively, also highlighting record quarterly cryptocurrency ADV. Furthermore, October saw a record ADV of 26.3 million contracts, an 8% year-over-year increase driven by strong performance in metals and cryptocurrency, which led to a 1.0% stock gain on the news release. November also marked the second-highest monthly ADV at 33.1 million contracts, a 10% year-over-year increase, including a record in cryptocurrency ADV.

2. Solid Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Performance: On October 22, 2025, CME Group announced its third-quarter earnings for 2025, reporting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.68, which slightly surpassed the forecast of $2.64. While revenue of $1.5 billion missed the expected $1.53 billion, management emphasized record open interest in key asset classes and strong growth in cryptocurrency and market data revenues as positive factors.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CME Return-6%29%-23%31%15%16%65%
Peers Return10%41%-12%23%21%19%141%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%114%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CME Win Rate58%42%42%67%50%67% 
Peers Win Rate58%64%36%64%53%67% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CME Max Drawdown-30%-2%-25%0%-7%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-4%-28%-11%-4%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ICE, NDAQ, CBOE. See CME Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/11/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCMES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven869 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven599 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-16.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven20.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven70 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-78.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven354.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven3288 days1480 days

Compare to SCHW, ICE, NDAQ, CBOE, MKTX


In The Past

CME's stock fell -32.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/21/2022. A -32.4% loss requires a 48.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About CME (CME)

Interactive Breakdown

CME Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than CME (CME)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CME. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
14.4%14.4%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.6%-7.6%-11.0%
CME_10312022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312022CMECMEDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
11.9%29.4%-2.1%
CME_10312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312020CMECMEDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
37.1%51.0%-0.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
14.4%14.4%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.6%-7.6%-11.0%
CME_10312022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312022CMECMEDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
11.9%29.4%-2.1%
CME_10312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312020CMECMEDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
37.1%51.0%-0.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for CME

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CMEICENDAQCBOEMedian
NameCME Intercon.Nasdaq Cboe Glo. 
Mkt Price271.15163.1093.85251.10207.10
Mkt Cap97.593.553.826.373.6
Rev LTM6,39712,5548,1684,5327,283
Op Inc LTM4,1574,7932,3221,3163,240
FCF LTM4,0844,0782,098-1133,088
FCF 3Y Avg3,6743,5261,7281,0902,627
CFO LTM4,1614,8762,335-423,248
CFO 3Y Avg3,7564,1511,9201,1502,838

Growth & Margins

CMEICENDAQCBOEMedian
NameCME Intercon.Nasdaq Cboe Glo. 
Rev Chg LTM5.8%16.3%16.4%19.0%16.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.9%10.0%10.5%7.9%9.5%
Rev Chg Q-3.0%12.6%2.9%20.5%7.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.7%3.0%0.7%4.6%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM65.0%38.2%28.4%29.0%33.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg63.1%38.8%28.1%28.1%33.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%0.7%1.4%0.2%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM65.0%38.8%28.6%-0.9%33.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg63.3%37.8%27.2%30.1%34.0%
FCF/Rev LTM63.8%32.5%25.7%-2.5%29.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg61.9%32.1%24.5%28.7%30.4%

Valuation

CMEICENDAQCBOEMedian
NameCME Intercon.Nasdaq Cboe Glo. 
Mkt Cap97.593.553.826.373.6
P/S15.27.76.25.76.9
P/EBIT19.419.921.419.419.7
P/E25.832.131.228.529.9
P/CFO23.419.821.7-607.020.8
Total Yield6.5%4.2%4.4%4.5%4.5%
Dividend Yield2.6%1.1%1.2%1.0%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.5%4.3%4.8%5.3%4.6%
D/E0.00.20.20.10.1
Net D/E0.00.20.10.00.1

Returns

CMEICENDAQCBOEMedian
NameCME Intercon.Nasdaq Cboe Glo. 
1M Rtn-2.8%7.3%7.2%-2.9%2.2%
3M Rtn3.3%-7.4%-1.5%6.5%0.9%
6M Rtn0.6%-8.4%9.0%11.6%4.8%
12M Rtn20.3%4.3%16.8%25.4%18.6%
3Y Rtn71.3%61.2%51.4%107.5%66.3%
1M Excs Rtn-3.6%6.5%6.4%-3.7%1.4%
3M Excs Rtn-1.4%-11.1%-4.6%2.7%-3.0%
6M Excs Rtn-13.6%-22.6%-5.2%-2.5%-9.4%
12M Excs Rtn5.1%-8.3%5.2%12.0%5.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-1.8%-14.6%-28.9%28.0%-8.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Interest rates1,5581,3271,1221,0081,278
Equity indexes1,0361,016752804584
Energy703586616699684
Market data and information services664611577545518
Agricultural commodities508445458462452
Other327266348441403
Metals225197199248239
Foreign exchange190188159163159
BrokerTec fixed income152165172  
Electronic Broking Services (EBS) foreign exchange133154164  
Interest rate swap8365636567
Optimization 060  
Cash markets business   447483
Total5,5795,0194,6904,8844,868


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,948,926
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-8.5%
Average Daily Volume2,105,335
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.35
Basic Shares Quantity359,686,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/22/2025-0.3%-0.8%1.4%
7/23/20250.7%-0.0%-0.0%
4/23/2025-1.5%2.6%6.1%
2/12/20253.0%3.7%8.0%
10/23/20240.4%0.4%0.8%
7/24/2024-0.1%-0.1%6.1%
4/24/2024-1.9%-3.3%-2.4%
2/14/20243.7%3.6%6.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive10815
# Negative151710
Median Positive3.2%3.2%5.5%
Median Negative-1.5%-1.3%-3.3%
Max Positive5.9%4.8%9.6%
Max Negative-6.2%-3.8%-18.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251024202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021