CME (CME)
Market Price (12/12/2025): $272.5 | Market Cap: $98.0 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Financial Exchanges & Data
CME (CME)
Market Price (12/12/2025): $272.5Market Cap: $98.0 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Financial Exchanges & Data
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.6% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -1.8% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 65% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.0% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.1 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Crypto & Blockchain, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Algorithmic Trading, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, Dividend Yield is 2.6% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 65% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 64%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.1 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Crypto & Blockchain, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Algorithmic Trading, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -1.8% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 23x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -3.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CME Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Continued Strong Average Daily Volume (ADV) Growth: CME Group reported robust average daily volumes across various asset classes throughout the period. This included its second-highest August ADV of 28.1 million contracts with record cryptocurrency product volumes, second-highest Q3 and September ADV of 25.3 million and 26.1 million contracts respectively, also highlighting record quarterly cryptocurrency ADV. Furthermore, October saw a record ADV of 26.3 million contracts, an 8% year-over-year increase driven by strong performance in metals and cryptocurrency, which led to a 1.0% stock gain on the news release. November also marked the second-highest monthly ADV at 33.1 million contracts, a 10% year-over-year increase, including a record in cryptocurrency ADV.
2. Solid Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Performance: On October 22, 2025, CME Group announced its third-quarter earnings for 2025, reporting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.68, which slightly surpassed the forecast of $2.64. While revenue of $1.5 billion missed the expected $1.53 billion, management emphasized record open interest in key asset classes and strong growth in cryptocurrency and market data revenues as positive factors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CME Return | -6% | 29% | -23% | 31% | 15% | 16% | 65% |
| Peers Return | 10% | 41% | -12% | 23% | 21% | 19% | 141% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CME Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 42% | 67% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 64% | 36% | 64% | 53% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CME Max Drawdown | -30% | -2% | -25% | 0% | -7% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -4% | -28% | -11% | -4% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ICE, NDAQ, CBOE. See CME Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/11/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CME | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 869 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -16.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 354.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3288 days | 1480 days |
Compare to SCHW, ICE, NDAQ, CBOE, MKTX
In The Past
CME's stock fell -32.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/21/2022. A -32.4% loss requires a 48.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| CME Earnings Notes | |||
| NDAQ Looks Smarter Buy Than CME Stock | Actionable | ||
| Day 9 of Gains Streak for CME Stock with 7.9% Return (vs. 25% YTD) [11/16/2025]TREFISDASH | Notification | ||
| Day 8 of Gains Streak for CME Stock with 7.3% Return (vs. 24% YTD) [11/13/2025]TREFISDASH | Notification | ||
| How Low Can CME Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Better Bet Than CME Stock: Pay Less Than CME To Get More From HLNE, FOUR | |||
| CME Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| CME YTD Stock Return Of 11% Outperforms MKTX by 19% and Underperforms ICE by -2.3% | Return | ||
| CME Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 15.4% in 2024 and 5.3% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| CME (CME) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Pay Less, Gain More: NDAQ Tops CME Stock | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| Why NDAQ Could Outperform CME Stock | November 17th, 2025 | ||
| CME Stock Surges 7.9%, With A 9-Day Winning Spree | November 17th, 2025 | ||
| 8-Day Rally Sends CME Stock Up 7.3% | November 14th, 2025 | ||
| Pay Less, Gain More: NDAQ Tops CME Stock | November 4th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CME. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 14.4% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.6% | -7.6% | -11.0% |
| 10312022 | CME | CME | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 29.4% | -2.1% |
| 10312020 | CME | CME | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 37.1% | 51.0% | -0.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 14.4% | 14.4% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.6% | -7.6% | -11.0% |
| 10312022 | CME | CME | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.9% | 29.4% | -2.1% |
| 10312020 | CME | CME | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 37.1% | 51.0% | -0.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CME
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 207.10 |
| Mkt Cap | 73.6 |
| Rev LTM | 7,283 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,240 |
| FCF LTM | 3,088 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,627 |
| CFO LTM | 3,248 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,838 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 33.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 33.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 34.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 29.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 73.6 |
| P/S | 6.9 |
| P/EBIT | 19.7 |
| P/E | 29.9 |
| P/CFO | 20.8 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 66.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -9.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -8.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest rates | 1,558 | 1,327 | 1,122 | 1,008 | 1,278 |
| Equity indexes | 1,036 | 1,016 | 752 | 804 | 584 |
| Energy | 703 | 586 | 616 | 699 | 684 |
| Market data and information services | 664 | 611 | 577 | 545 | 518 |
| Agricultural commodities | 508 | 445 | 458 | 462 | 452 |
| Other | 327 | 266 | 348 | 441 | 403 |
| Metals | 225 | 197 | 199 | 248 | 239 |
| Foreign exchange | 190 | 188 | 159 | 163 | 159 |
| BrokerTec fixed income | 152 | 165 | 172 | ||
| Electronic Broking Services (EBS) foreign exchange | 133 | 154 | 164 | ||
| Interest rate swap | 83 | 65 | 63 | 65 | 67 |
| Optimization | 0 | 60 | |||
| Cash markets business | 447 | 483 | |||
| Total | 5,579 | 5,019 | 4,690 | 4,884 | 4,868 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2025 | -0.3% | -0.8% | 1.4% |
| 7/23/2025 | 0.7% | -0.0% | -0.0% |
| 4/23/2025 | -1.5% | 2.6% | 6.1% |
| 2/12/2025 | 3.0% | 3.7% | 8.0% |
| 10/23/2024 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| 7/24/2024 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 6.1% |
| 4/24/2024 | -1.9% | -3.3% | -2.4% |
| 2/14/2024 | 3.7% | 3.6% | 6.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 8 | 15 |
| # Negative | 15 | 17 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 3.2% | 5.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.5% | -1.3% | -3.3% |
| Max Positive | 5.9% | 4.8% | 9.6% |
| Max Negative | -6.2% | -3.8% | -18.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10242025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
