Chegg (CHGG)
Market Price (11/13/2025): $1.18 | Market Cap: $126.2 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Education Services
Chegg (CHGG)
Market Price (11/13/2025): $1.18Market Cap: $126.2 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Education Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -143%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -175% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -117 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -23% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 25% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -26%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Learning Platforms, Digital Learning Resources, and AI-Powered Education. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -215% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 116% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Education. Themes include Online Learning Platforms, Digital Learning Resources, and AI-Powered Education. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -143%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -175% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -117 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -23% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -26%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -36% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -215% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 116% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
CHGG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between July 31, 2025, and November 13, 2025, Chegg's stock experienced a decline of 7.6% due to several significant factors:
1. Continued decline in Q2 2025 revenue and subscribers: Chegg reported a substantial 36% year-over-year decrease in total revenue and a 40% drop in subscribers for the second quarter of 2025. This downturn was largely attributed to reduced organic traffic stemming from Google's AI Overviews, which altered search algorithms. The announcement of these results on August 5, 2025, led to a significant 7.91% decline in the stock price.
2. FTC settlement over cancellation practices: In September 2025, Chegg agreed to a $7.5 million settlement with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) concerning allegations about its difficult subscription cancellation process. This negative news event contributed to a drop in the stock price.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CHGG Return | 138% | -66% | -18% | -55% | -86% | -25% | -97% |
| Peers Return | -3% | 34% | 6% | 40% | 12% | -6% | 103% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CHGG Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 17% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 43% | 47% | 52% | 55% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CHGG Max Drawdown | -27% | -72% | -46% | -70% | -87% | -71% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -18% | -28% | -13% | -27% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LRN, COCO, MATW, GDEN, EDTK. See CHGG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CHGG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1413.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 216 days | 120 days |
Compare to LRN, COCO, MATW, GDEN, EDTK
In The Past
Chegg's stock fell -93.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -93.4% loss requires a 1413.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CHGG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -4.2% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.5% | 1.5% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.5% | -1.5% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.4% | -1.4% | -2.5% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.6% | 17.6% | -6.2% |
| 01312023 | CHGG | Chegg | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -50.2% | -52.6% | -63.9% |
| 05312022 | CHGG | Chegg | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 44.5% | -53.9% | -53.9% |
| 11302021 | CHGG | Chegg | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -30.1% | 7.1% | -40.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -4.2% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.5% | 1.5% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.5% | -1.5% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.4% | -1.4% | -2.5% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.6% | 17.6% | -6.2% |
| 01312023 | CHGG | Chegg | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -50.2% | -52.6% | -63.9% |
| 05312022 | CHGG | Chegg | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 44.5% | -53.9% | -53.9% |
| 11302021 | CHGG | Chegg | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -30.1% | 7.1% | -40.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Chegg
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 26.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| Rev LTM | 643 |
| Op Inc LTM | 40 |
| FCF LTM | 53 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 67 |
| CFO LTM | 77 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 102 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -11.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.8 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 21.1 |
| P/E | 9.0 |
| P/CFO | 8.2 |
| Total Yield | 2.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 3.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -78.2% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/27/2025 | -13.2% | -34.6% | |
| 8/5/2025 | -14.0% | -14.0% | 29.5% |
| 5/12/2025 | 7.5% | 29.9% | 126.1% |
| 2/24/2025 | -31.4% | -33.3% | -60.2% |
| 11/12/2024 | -10.7% | -5.1% | 26.6% |
| 8/5/2024 | -22.2% | -30.0% | -29.0% |
| 4/29/2024 | -27.9% | -28.0% | -48.8% |
| 2/5/2024 | -6.1% | -5.1% | -14.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 15 | 16 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 8.3% | 11.6% | 28.0% |
| Median Negative | -15.1% | -17.9% | -21.0% |
| Max Positive | 32.3% | 39.7% | 126.1% |
| Max Negative | -48.8% | -51.0% | -60.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8082025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4292024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10302023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5012023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11012021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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