Chubb (CB)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $326.12 | Market Cap: $128.0 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Chubb (CB)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $326.12Market Cap: $128.0 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Property & Casualty Insurance
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.3%, FCF Yield is 10% Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -20% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.9 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, AI in Financial Services, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.6%, Dist 3Y High is -4.6% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -6.2% | Key risksCB key risks include [1] significant losses from increasingly severe and frequent natural disasters and [2] vulnerabilities to cybersecurity breaches and AI-related disruptions, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.3%, FCF Yield is 10% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 18% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, AI in Financial Services, Aging Population & Chronic Disease, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.6%, Dist 3Y High is -4.6% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -6.2% |
| Key risksCB key risks include [1] significant losses from increasingly severe and frequent natural disasters and [2] vulnerabilities to cybersecurity breaches and AI-related disruptions, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Exceptional Q4 2025 Earnings Beat.
Chubb reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 on February 4, 2026, with core operating earnings per share (EPS) of $7.52. This significantly exceeded analysts' consensus estimates of $6.69 by 12.41%. The company also achieved a record low Property & Casualty (P&C) combined ratio of 81.2%, demonstrating strong underwriting profitability.
2. Strong Q1 2026 Performance Driven by Underwriting and Reduced Catastrophe Losses.
The positive momentum continued into the first quarter of 2026, with Chubb announcing impressive results on April 21, 2026. Core operating income surged by over 80% year-over-year to $2.69 billion, while consolidated net premiums written increased by 10.7% to $14.01 billion. P&C underwriting income rose to $1.8 billion with an improved combined ratio of 84.0%, a substantial reduction from 95.7% in Q1 2025. Furthermore, pre-tax net catastrophe losses were significantly lower at $500 million, compared to $1.64 billion in the prior-year quarter.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.8% change in CB stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 311.20 | 326.12 | 4.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 58,900 | 60,060 | 2.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.4% | 17.2% | 4.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.8 | 12.4 | -2.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 397 | 393 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.8% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CB | 4.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.2% | -3.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | -6.1% | 25.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.3% change in CB stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 280.53 | 326.12 | 16.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 57,660 | 60,060 | 4.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.0% | 17.2% | 7.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.2 | 12.4 | 1.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 400 | 393 | 1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.3% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CB | 16.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | -6.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | -4.2% | 28.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.4% change in CB stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 298.11 | 326.12 | 9.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 56,119 | 60,060 | 7.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.5% | 17.2% | 3.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.9 | 12.4 | -4.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 403 | 393 | 2.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CB | 9.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 24.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 4.3% | 44.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 75.1% change in CB stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 40.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 186.23 | 326.12 | 75.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 42,975 | 60,060 | 39.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.2% | 17.2% | 40.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.7 | 12.4 | -15.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 415 | 393 | 5.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 75.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CB | 75.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.8% | 19.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 67.0% | 44.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CB Return | 28% | 16% | 4% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 134% |
| Peers Return | 38% | 7% | 7% | 28% | 17% | -3% | 132% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 89% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CB Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 58% | 67% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 55% | 58% | 67% | 60% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CB Max Drawdown | -6% | -8% | -15% | -0% | -7% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -3% | -13% | -16% | -1% | -8% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TRV, AIG, HIG, PRU, CINF. See CB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 205 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 322 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -23.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 227 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 756 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to TRV, AIG, HIG, PRU, CINF
In The Past
Chubb's stock fell -20.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/26/2023. A -20.0% loss requires a 25.0% gain to breakeven.
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About Chubb (CB)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies to describe Chubb:
- The 'Amazon' for almost every kind of insurance – from your car and home to global corporate risks and life coverage.
- The 'JPMorgan Chase' of the insurance world – a global financial giant offering a vast array of protection services for individuals, businesses, and even other insurers.
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- Commercial Property & Casualty Insurance: Provides businesses with coverage for property damage, liability, workers' compensation, cyber risks, and various specialty areas.
- Personal Property & Casualty Insurance: Offers homeowners, automobile, valuable articles, and personal liability coverage for individuals and families.
- Agricultural Insurance: Protects farmers and ranchers with crop insurance and coverage for farm property and commercial agriculture.
- Group Accident & Health Insurance: Delivers accident and health coverage for employees of commercial businesses both domestically and internationally.
- Reinsurance: Provides insurance to other insurance companies, covering traditional and specialty property and casualty risks globally.
- Life Insurance: Offers a range of protection and savings products including whole life, term life, medical, health, and personal accident coverage.
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Chubb serves a diverse base of customers, including both businesses and individuals across various segments. Given the nature of its business, it sells to a wide array of customers rather than a few identifiable primary companies. Its major customers can be broadly categorized as:
- Commercial Businesses and Organizations: This includes large, middle market, and small commercial businesses, corporations, and commercial agriculture entities worldwide. They purchase a range of commercial property, casualty, workers' compensation, financial lines, marine, cyber risk, environmental, and group accident and health insurance.
- Other Insurance and Reinsurance Companies: Through its Global Reinsurance segment (Chubb Tempest Re), Chubb provides traditional and specialty reinsurance products to other property and casualty companies globally.
- Individuals and Families: This category encompasses affluent and high net worth individuals and families seeking specialized homeowners, automobile, valuable articles, personal liability, and travel insurance. It also includes farmers and ranchers for their property, and individuals for various life insurance products (e.g., whole life, term life, medical, health, personal accident, credit life).
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Evan G. Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Greenberg has a career spanning over 50 years in the insurance industry. He was elected President and Chief Executive Officer of ACE Limited (Chubb's predecessor) in May 2004 and Chairman of the Board of Directors in May 2007. Under his leadership, Chubb has grown to become one of the largest insurance companies globally. Prior to joining ACE in 2001 as Vice Chairman, Mr. Greenberg spent 25 years at American International Group (AIG), where he served as President and Chief Operating Officer from 1997 to 2000. He also held senior management positions, including President and Chief Executive Officer of AIU, AIG's foreign general insurance organization, and Chief Executive Officer of AIG Far East, based in Japan. He oversaw the acquisition of The Chubb Corporation by ACE Limited in 2016, a $28.3 billion transaction that solidified Chubb's global leadership position.
Peter C. Enns, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Enns has over three decades of finance and investment banking experience. He joined Chubb as CFO in 2021, succeeding Philip Bancroft. Prior to Chubb, he held various senior roles at Goldman Sachs for over 20 years, including Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs Canada from 2014 to 2017, Head of the Asia Financial Institutions Group from 2010 to 2014, and Partner of the U.S. Financial Institutions Group from 2006 to 2010. More recently, he was Global Co-Head of Investment Banking Coverage at HSBC.
John W. Keogh, President and Chief Operating Officer; Chairman, North America Insurance
Joseph F. Wayland, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary
Seshadri Iyer, Executive Vice President, Chubb Group, Operations, Technology and Digital Transformation
Mr. Iyer was appointed to this role effective April 6, 2026, overseeing global operations and technology functions. He joined Chubb from Boston Consulting Group, where he spent nearly 20 years, most recently as North America chair for BCG X, the firm's tech design and build unit.
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Chubb Limited (CB) faces several key risks inherent to its global insurance and reinsurance operations. One of the most significant risks is **the volatility of catastrophe events and climate change**. As a prominent insurer and reinsurer, Chubb is highly exposed to natural disasters and other large-scale events, which can lead to substantial volatility in financial results. The unpredictability of such events is an integral part of its underwriting process, and while the company adjusts its strategies, unforeseen losses can significantly impact profitability. Another key risk is related to **market risks, particularly interest rate volatility**, which can affect its investment portfolio performance and capital resources. Chubb's substantial investment income provides a buffer, but fluctuations in interest rates can adversely impact both investment income and overall operating results. Finally, **regulatory and legal risks** pose a significant challenge due to Chubb's extensive global presence. Operating in 54 countries subjects the company to a complex array of regulatory environments, leading to potential compliance risks and legal challenges. Changes in tax and other regulations can also increase Chubb's liabilities.AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat for Chubb is the rapid advancement and proliferation of Insurtech companies. These companies leverage cutting-edge technologies, including artificial intelligence, machine learning, big data analytics, and the Internet of Things (IoT), to develop more personalized, efficient, and often direct-to-consumer insurance products across various segments, such as personal lines, small commercial, and life insurance. By offering streamlined digital processes, potentially lower overhead, and enhanced customer experiences that bypass traditional broker channels, Insurtech firms pose a significant challenge to Chubb's long-standing business model and distribution strategy, potentially eroding market share and impacting pricing power in segments susceptible to technological disruption and commoditization.
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Chubb Limited operates across several significant insurance and reinsurance markets globally. Here are the addressable market sizes for its main products and services:
- North America Commercial Property & Casualty (P&C) Insurance: The North America commercial property insurance market size was valued at approximately USD 112.62 billion in 2024. More broadly, the North America property and casualty insurance market, which includes both commercial and personal lines, was valued at USD 853.13 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 885.55 billion in 2026.
- North America Personal Property & Casualty (P&C) Insurance: This segment is part of the larger North America property and casualty insurance market, which had a value of USD 853.13 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 885.55 billion in 2026. Individuals constituted the leading end-user segment in the overall property and casualty insurance market in 2023.
- North America Agricultural Insurance: The addressable market for agricultural insurance in North America was estimated at USD 46.53 billion in 2024. North America represents the largest market globally for agricultural insurance, holding approximately 45% of the worldwide share in 2024.
- Overseas General Insurance: The global property and casualty (P&C) insurance market, which encompasses general insurance outside of North America, was valued at USD 1,920.56 billion in 2025. Global P&C insurance premiums amounted to approximately €2,424 billion (around USD 2.6 trillion) in 2024, with North America accounting for more than half of these volumes.
- Global Reinsurance: The global reinsurance market size was valued at USD 711.75 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to approximately USD 2,000.08 billion by 2034. North America contributed over 44% of the revenue share in this market in 2024.
- Life Insurance: The global life insurance market size was estimated at USD 7.55 trillion in 2024 and is projected to increase to approximately USD 18.03 trillion by 2034.
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Chubb Limited (CB) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a combination of strong premium growth, increasing net investment income, and strategic initiatives focused on digital transformation and product development.
- Growth in Net Premiums across P&C and Life Insurance: Chubb anticipates continued robust growth in its net premiums, encompassing both its Property & Casualty (P&C) and life insurance divisions. This growth is significantly bolstered by expansion in international markets, with Latin America and Asia specifically identified as key contributors.
- Rising Net Investment Income: The company projects a sustained increase in its adjusted net investment income. This is expected as Chubb continues to reinvest its cash flows at higher interest rates, enhancing returns from its fixed income and private investment portfolios.
- Digital Transformation and New Product Development: Chubb's strategic investments in digital transformation projects are aimed at improving its combined ratio and overall operational efficiency, which supports competitive pricing and business acquisition. Additionally, the launch of new products and services, particularly within emerging markets and through digital distribution channels, is expected to attract new customers and drive revenue.
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Share Repurchases
- Chubb's Board of Directors authorized a new $5 billion share repurchase program, effective July 1, 2023, with no expiration date. A similar $5 billion share repurchase program was authorized effective July 1, 2025, also with no expiration date.
- The company repurchased $3.4 billion in shares in 2025 at an average price of $282.57 per share.
- Chubb's annual share buybacks totaled $3.694 billion in 2025, $1.801 billion in 2024, and $2.411 billion in 2023.
Share Issuance
- The number of outstanding shares decreased from approximately 452 million in 2019 to 400.7 million in 2024, and further to 391.101 million by the end of 2025, indicating a reduction in shares rather than significant issuances.
Outbound Investments
- In October 2021, Chubb agreed to acquire Cigna's personal accident, supplemental health, and life insurance business in seven Asia-Pacific markets for $5.75 billion in cash, with the transaction completed in 2022.
- Chubb acquired Healthy Paws, a pet insurance provider, for approximately $300 million in cash in 2024.
- In March 2025, Chubb announced agreements to acquire Liberty Mutual's Property & Casualty insurance operations in Thailand and Vietnam.
Capital Expenditures
- Chubb annually invests $1.1-$1.2 billion in technological advancements, focusing on modernization and improving processing capabilities.
- These technology investments are expected to remain in the $1.1-$1.2 billion range annually, supporting core operations and developing new capabilities in analytics and customer-facing systems.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With Chubb Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | 10/17/2025 | |
| CB Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| Chubb Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 25.1% in 2024 and 15.7% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | 03/07/2025 | |
| Chubb (CB) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 02/17/2025 | |
| Chubb (CB) Net Income Comparison | 02/15/2025 | |
| Chubb vs. S&P500 Correlation | 10/03/2024 | |
| Chubb Price Volatility | 09/24/2024 | |
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | 06/19/2024 | |
| Chubb vs. Large Cap Stocks: Which Is A Better Investment? | 01/29/2024 | |
| CB YTD Stock Return Of -3.6% Outperforms TRV by 7.0% and Underperforms PGR by -12% | 09/28/2023 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 12/29/2025 | |
| Large Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 12/18/2025 |
Trade Ideas
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | HBAN | Huntington Bancshares | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | NP | Neptune Insurance | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03202026 | MKTX | MarketAxess | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.7% |
| 03202026 | RYAN | Ryan Specialty | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -2.7% | -2.7% | -8.5% |
| 06302025 | CB | Chubb | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.3% | 13.6% | -8.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 149.46 |
| Mkt Cap | 39.0 |
| Rev LTM | 38,506 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 6,012 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 6,130 |
| CFO LTM | 6,096 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,222 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 39.0 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/Op Inc | - |
| P/EBIT | 8.4 |
| P/E | 10.2 |
| P/CFO | 7.3 |
| Total Yield | 11.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 14.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 70.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -7.4% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $326.12 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 128.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -4.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $328.94 | $297.56 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -0.9% | 9.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 19.2% | 17.5% |
| Downside Capture | -0.24 | -0.06 |
| Upside Capture | 2.17 | 10.62 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -1.8% | -0.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.00 | -0.17 | -0.17 | -0.17 | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| Up Beta | -0.08 | 0.12 | 0.07 | -0.26 | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Down Beta | -0.40 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| Up Capture | -17% | -15% | -26% | -3% | 11% | 8% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 23 | 32 | 69 | 132 | 401 |
| Down Capture | 38% | -49% | -41% | -56% | 9% | 18% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 19 | 31 | 57 | 120 | 350 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB | 16.2% | 17.6% | 0.70 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 8.9% | 14.7% | 0.36 | 30.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 34.0% | 12.6% | 2.05 | -1.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.9% | 27.2% | 1.29 | -4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.4% | 18.0% | 1.97 | -10.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.3% | 0.74 | 32.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.6% | 42.1% | -0.32 | -7.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB | 16.8% | 20.4% | 0.69 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.6% | 18.7% | 0.40 | 59.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 38.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 17.8% | 0.97 | 0.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.5% | 19.1% | 0.62 | 10.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 38.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.3% | 0.34 | 7.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB | 12.5% | 23.7% | 0.50 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.7% | 22.2% | 0.53 | 69.2% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/21/2026 | -1.2% | ||
| 2/3/2026 | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.1% |
| 10/21/2025 | 2.7% | 2.3% | 9.2% |
| 7/22/2025 | -3.1% | -3.7% | 0.3% |
| 4/22/2025 | -2.0% | -1.9% | 0.0% |
| 1/28/2025 | 1.3% | -0.0% | 3.5% |
| 10/29/2024 | -1.2% | -3.5% | 1.1% |
| 7/23/2024 | -1.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 15 | 19 |
| # Negative | 14 | 9 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.5% | -1.9% | -3.5% |
| Max Positive | 5.3% | 9.6% | 23.6% |
| Max Negative | -6.2% | -5.4% | -8.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 EPS Growth | 10.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Tangible Book Value Growth | 10.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.0% for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 EPS Growth | 10.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Tangible Book Value Growth | 10.0% | ||||||
CB Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Chubb earns a high conviction 'ACCUMULATE' rating. It is a best-in-class operator demonstrating superior underwriting discipline in its core business while successfully integrating a new, high-growth engine in Asia. The competitive moat is widening, and the company benefits from sector tailwinds. The valuation is fair, providing a favorable risk/reward skew for a high-quality compounder.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Quality Compounder / StalwartChubb fits the Type B archetype due to its elite brand, strong competitive moat in specialized insurance lines, consistent profitability evidenced by a low P&C combined ratio, and a focus on capital efficiency and shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is that Chubb is a superior compounder, simultaneously firing on three cylinders: 1) Best-in-class underwriting in its core P&C business is generating high-margin profits. 2) Rising interest rates are creating a tailwind for its net investment income. 3) The 2022 acquisition of Cigna's Asia assets has created a new, high-growth, and diversified earnings stream from life and health insurance that is re-accelerating overall growth.
- P&C combined ratio was an exceptionally strong 84.0% in Q1 2026, indicating elite underwriting profitability.
- Adjusted net investment income grew over 10% YoY in Q1 2026, demonstrating the earnings power from higher interest rates.
- Life Insurance net premiums written surged by 33.1% YoY in Q1 2026, confirming the Asia acquisition is a powerful new growth engine.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk is a structural and rapid softening of the P&C pricing cycle, particularly in the commercial property market. Undisciplined competition is driving down rates to levels Chubb's management deems 'inadequate' and 'dumb,' forcing the company to defensively shrink its exposure in these lines to protect underwriting margins, which could cap near-term revenue growth in the core P&C segment.
- CEO Evan Greenberg stated in the Q1 2026 earnings call that the property market is 'softening at a rapid pace.'
- The company is actively 'non-renewing a substantial percentage' of its shared and layered property business due to price declines of 25-40% in some cases.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| P&C Combined Ratio | Sustained below 90% | This is the primary indicator of underwriting discipline and core profitability. A sustained low ratio confirms the company's moat and pricing power are intact. |
| Life Insurance Net Premiums Written Growth | >20% YoY | This measures the success of the strategic pivot to Asia. Continued high growth is essential to the thesis that Chubb has a new, diversifying growth engine. |
| Tangible Book Value Per Share Growth YoY | >10% | This is the ultimate measure of shareholder value creation, capturing underwriting profit, investment returns, and capital management. Strong growth validates the entire business model. |
Discipline vs. Deterioration: Can New Growth Outrun P&C Pricing Pressure?
BULL VIEW
Bulls bet the high-growth Asia Life (+33.1%) and disciplined underwriting (84.0% combined ratio) will drive superior, double-digit EPS growth regardless of softness in one segment.
CORE TENSION
The core debate is whether Chubb's underwriting discipline and new Asia life growth engine can offset the rapid price softening in its core P&C property market.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CEO's Q1 2026 commentary confirms the bear case is active ('property market softening at a rapid pace'), but Q1 results (84.0% P&C combined ratio) prove the bull case is still winning.
BEAR VIEW
Bears hedge against a revenue miss, as management is forced to shed significant property business due to irrational pricing (declines of 25-40%) from undisciplined competitors.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late July 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Growth delta between P&C property premiums vs. other lines. Watch if ex-cat combined ratio holds below the 84.0% Q1 baseline despite pricing pressure. |
Late October 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Life Insurance Net Premiums Written Growth YoY. Needs to remain above the >20% threshold to validate the diversification thesis is working. |
Early July 2026 | Industry Pricing Surveys Release (Marsh) Watch: The report's specific rate change percentage for North American Commercial Property lines. A continued double-digit negative print validates the CEO's concerns. |
Late July 2026 | Q2 10-Q Filing Release Watch: Note on 'Provision for Prior Period Development' in casualty lines. A material increase signals that past reserves were inadequate. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Oct 16, 2025 | Sector-Wide De-Risking Details: With no company-specific news, the sharp drop likely reflected broader market or sector-specific concerns, possibly related to interest rate fears or pre-earnings positioning. | Fell notably by 3.6% $276.61 -> $266.59 |
Oct 22, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: The company reported a substantial EPS surprise of +23.39%, demonstrating strong profitability and operational execution that drove the positive stock reaction. | Rose significantly by 2.3% $274.83 -> $281.21 |
Dec 11, 2025 | Positive Market Sentiment Details: Stock broke out on high volume with no specific news, suggesting a positive shift in investor sentiment and positioning ahead of year-end and Q4 earnings. | Rose significantly by 3.2% $294.72 -> $304.11 |
Jan 31, 2026 | Legal Allegation Filed Details: The Archdiocese of New York filed a motion accusing Chubb of fraud in a large insurance dispute. The market largely ignored the headline risk on the next trading day. | Flat (0.6%) $308.64 -> $310.33 |
Feb 3, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported a record low P&C combined ratio of 81.2% and a significant 13.94% EPS beat, which drove the stock to new highs on strong underwriting performance. | Surged +5.1% $312.45 -> $328.48 |
Apr 21, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Release Details: Reported Core Operating EPS of $6.82, beating estimates. P&C combined ratio was strong at 84.0% and Life Insurance premiums surged +33.1%. Stock pulled back on cautious CEO commentary. | Slight -1.2% pullback $329.29 -> $325.43 |
Position Sizing
NORMAL
Diversification Alternatives
Chubb is a global underwriting and investment compounder leveraging a diversified insurance portfolio to generate profits from both disciplined risk-taking (underwriting income) and returns on its massive invested asset base (investment income), with Asian life insurance serving as a third, growing earnings stream.
Filter all news through the dual lenses of underwriting discipline and investment income growth, which together drive earnings.
P&C combined ratio remaining below 90%; net investment income growth >5% YoY; sustained double-digit premium growth in international consumer and life insurance lines; accretive bolt-on acquisitions.
Sustained commercial P&C pricing deterioration leading to combined ratios above 95%; significant catastrophe losses exceeding the ~$3B annual budget; a sharp decline in interest rates impacting investment portfolio yield; major reserve charges indicating past underwriting was inadequate.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in premium growth in any single sub-segment; modest catastrophe losses within quarterly budget; minor shifts in the competitive landscape without a material impact on pricing power.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the dual-engine earnings growth from both record underwriting profitability (P&C combined ratio of 84.0% in Q1 2026) and rising net investment income ($1.8B in Q1 2026, up >10% YoY), which management projects will lead to double-digit EPS growth in 2026.
Property & Casualty (P&C) Insurance
$47.6B TTM (87% of Total) · 16% MarginWhat It Is
Commercial and personal P&C insurance, including specialty lines like director's and officer's (D&O) liability, cyber, and high-net-worth personal lines.
Who Pays & How
Multinational corporations and high-net-worth individuals pay premiums to transfer complex risks. They choose Chubb for its specialized underwriting expertise, superior claims service, and financial strength to pay large claims, creating significant lock-in.
Competition
Life Insurance
$7.3B TTM (13% of Total) · 17% MarginWhat It Is
Personal accident, supplemental health, and life insurance, primarily in Asia.
Who Pays & How
Individuals in Asia pay premiums for life and health coverage. Growth is driven by the strategic acquisition of Cigna's Asia-Pacific business in July 2022, which significantly expanded Chubb's presence and distribution in a high-growth region.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
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| FinViz |
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