Tearsheet

Caterpillar (CAT)


Market Price (11/11/2025): $570.94 | Market Cap: $268.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Caterpillar (CAT)


Market Price (11/11/2025): $570.94
Market Cap: $268.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.7 Bil
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.7%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Sustainable Infrastructure, Hydrogen Economy, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Industrial Robotics, Autonomous Trucks, Waste Management Solutions, Hydrogen Infrastructure, Fuel Cell Technology, and 1 more themes.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.7 Bil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Sustainable Infrastructure, Hydrogen Economy, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Industrial Robotics, Autonomous Trucks, Waste Management Solutions, Hydrogen Infrastructure, Fuel Cell Technology, and 1 more themes.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.7%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

CAT Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CAT Return27%16%19%26%25%60%338%
Peers Return27%16%4%18%19%18%152%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CAT Win Rate75%58%50%50%67%60% 
Peers Win Rate63%57%43%52%53%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CAT Max Drawdown-37%-0%-20%-13%-6%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-42%-8%-27%-12%-13%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DE, ALSN, TEX, ASTE, CAT. See CAT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/10/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCATS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven101 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven170 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-34.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven52.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven748 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-74.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven292.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven639 days1480 days

Compare to DE, ALSN, TEX, ASTE, CAT


In The Past

Caterpillar's stock fell -33.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/17/2021. A -33.6% loss requires a 50.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Caterpillar (CAT)

Better Bets than Caterpillar (CAT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CAT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.8%-10.8%-10.8%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-17.5%-17.5%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-1.2%-1.2% 
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.6%-7.6%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%-0.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.8%-10.8%-10.8%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-17.5%-17.5%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-1.2%-1.2% 
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.6%-7.6%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%-0.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Caterpillar

Financials

CATDEALSNTEXASTEMedian
NameCaterpil.Deere Allison .Terex Astec In. 
Mkt Price570.85474.3982.7845.5646.0082.78
Mkt Cap268.1128.47.03.01.17.0
Rev LTM63,13943,3973,0695,3441,3695,344
Op Inc LTM11,5108,66394439178944
FCF LTM7,7404,10162827945628
FCF 3Y Avg8,3493,986647266-7647
CFO LTM11,3738,55680441262804
CFO 3Y Avg11,5178,52280139220801

Growth & Margins

CATDEALSNTEXASTEMedian
NameCaterpil.Deere Allison .Terex Astec In. 
Rev Chg LTM-4.9%-20.9%-4.2%4.6%6.7%-4.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.8%-0.6%4.6%8.9%5.0%5.0%
Rev Chg Q-0.7%-8.3%-15.9%14.4%20.1%-0.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.2%-2.4%-4.1%3.4%4.5%-0.2%
Op Mgn LTM18.2%20.0%30.8%7.3%5.7%18.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg18.8%22.3%30.4%10.4%3.9%18.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.9%-1.2%-0.5%0.1%-0.3%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM18.0%19.7%26.2%7.7%4.5%18.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.8%16.5%26.0%7.5%1.5%16.5%
FCF/Rev LTM12.3%9.4%20.5%5.2%3.3%9.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg12.9%7.8%21.0%5.1%-0.5%7.8%

Valuation

CATDEALSNTEXASTEMedian
NameCaterpil.Deere Allison .Terex Astec In. 
Mkt Cap268.1128.47.03.01.17.0
P/S4.23.02.30.60.82.3
P/EBIT22.013.37.37.812.812.8
P/E28.424.79.919.222.022.0
P/CFO23.615.08.67.317.015.0
Total Yield4.5%5.4%10.4%6.8%5.7%5.7%
Dividend Yield1.0%1.3%0.3%1.5%1.1%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.4%3.4%9.6%7.4%-0.6%5.4%
D/E0.20.50.30.90.30.3
Net D/E0.10.40.20.70.30.3

Returns

CATDEALSNTEXASTEMedian
NameCaterpil.Deere Allison .Terex Astec In. 
1M Rtn16.5%6.3%4.2%-9.4%4.3%4.3%
3M Rtn40.1%-6.1%-6.2%-5.7%8.9%-5.7%
6M Rtn67.7%-3.6%-19.7%2.8%11.5%2.8%
12M Rtn47.3%22.1%-29.9%-17.0%23.6%22.1%
3Y Rtn154.1%21.8%101.3%4.8%7.9%21.8%
1M Excs Rtn12.3%2.0%-0.1%-13.7%-0.0%-0.0%
3M Excs Rtn32.7%-11.9%-15.3%-15.7%-1.9%-11.9%
6M Excs Rtn50.8%-20.6%-36.6%-14.1%-5.4%-14.1%
12M Excs Rtn23.8%3.3%-44.1%-36.1%7.6%3.3%
3Y Excs Rtn90.3%-58.1%22.6%-63.7%-70.4%-58.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Energy & Transportation28,00123,75220,28714,66418,485
Construction Industries27,41825,26922,10616,87622,556
Resource Industries13,58312,3149,8107,4469,813
Financial Products Segment3,7853,2533,0733,0443,434
All Other Segment449450511113127
Corporate Items and Eliminations-6,176-5,611-4,816-395-615
Total67,06059,42750,97141,74853,800


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Financial Products Segment35,685    
Liabilities included in segment assets11,781    
Energy & Transportation10,555    
Property, plant and equipment - net and other assets6,548    
Cash and cash equivalents6,106    
Resource Industries5,742    
Construction Industries5,384    
Goodwill and intangible assets4,452    
Deferred income taxes2,668    
All Other Segment1,890    
Other-166    
Inventory methodology differences-3,169    
Total87,476    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,822,768
Short Interest: % Change Since 93020256.9%
Average Daily Volume3,260,322
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.40
Basic Shares Quantity469,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.7%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/202511.6%4.4% 
8/5/20250.1%-5.8%-4.3%
4/30/20250.6%4.4%14.4%
1/30/2025-4.6%-8.7%-12.5%
10/30/2024-2.1%-1.1%4.2%
8/6/20243.0%6.1%6.3%
4/25/2024-7.0%-8.9%-3.5%
2/5/20242.0%0.7%5.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91214
# Negative151210
Median Positive3.0%4.0%5.7%
Median Negative-3.0%-4.2%-4.3%
Max Positive11.6%8.9%19.7%
Max Negative-7.0%-8.9%-12.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023216202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211103202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More