Tearsheet

Caterpillar (CAT)


Market Price (12/9/2025): $596.64 | Market Cap: $279.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Caterpillar (CAT)


Market Price (12/9/2025): $596.64
Market Cap: $279.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.6 Bil
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.1%, Dist 3Y High is -1.1%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Sustainable Infrastructure, Hydrogen Economy, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.6 Bil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Sustainable Infrastructure, Hydrogen Economy, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.1%, Dist 3Y High is -1.1%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CAT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period for Caterpillar (CAT) stock analysis, from August 31, 2025, to December 9, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, I cannot provide key points explaining a stock movement for this period.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CAT Return27%16%19%26%25%67%358%
Peers Return22%19%7%22%8%23%150%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CAT Win Rate75%58%50%50%67%60% 
Peers Win Rate62%62%43%48%53%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CAT Max Drawdown-37%-0%-20%-13%-6%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-44%-3%-23%-11%-11%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DE, PCAR, CMI, TEX, OSK. See CAT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/8/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCATS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven101 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven170 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-34.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven52.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven748 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-74.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven292.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven639 days1480 days

Compare to DE, ALSN, TEX, ASTE, CAT


In The Past

Caterpillar's stock fell -33.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/17/2021. A -33.6% loss requires a 50.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Caterpillar (CAT)

Better Bets than Caterpillar (CAT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CAT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.7%10.7%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.1%-1.1%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.2%8.2%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.7%10.7%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.1%-1.1%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.2%8.2%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Caterpillar

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CATDEPCARCMITEXOSKMedian
NameCaterpil.Deere PACCAR Cummins Terex Oshkosh  
Mkt Price596.50466.35109.72507.7049.32128.82297.59
Mkt Cap279.5126.257.770.13.28.363.9
Rev LTM64,67143,39729,53233,5815,34410,33231,556
Op Inc LTM11,4158,6633,3653,7543919573,560
FCF LTM7,5604,1013,1942,2782797552,736
FCF 3Y Avg8,6163,9863,0051,5942663162,299
CFO LTM11,5418,5564,7173,5094129744,113
CFO 3Y Avg11,9368,5224,4502,7863925993,618

Growth & Margins

CATDEPCARCMITEXOSKMedian
NameCaterpil.Deere PACCAR Cummins Terex Oshkosh  
Rev Chg LTM-1.5%-20.9%-15.2%-1.8%4.6%-2.5%-2.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.9%-0.6%3.8%9.4%8.9%9.9%6.9%
Rev Chg Q9.5%-8.3%-19.0%-1.6%14.4%-1.9%-1.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.4%-2.4%-5.0%-0.4%3.4%-0.5%-0.5%
Op Mgn LTM17.7%20.0%11.4%11.2%7.3%9.3%11.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg18.9%22.3%14.4%10.4%10.4%9.2%12.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%-1.2%-1.0%0.0%0.1%-0.0%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM17.8%19.7%16.0%10.4%7.7%9.4%13.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg18.2%16.5%13.7%8.3%7.5%6.0%11.0%
FCF/Rev LTM11.7%9.4%10.8%6.8%5.2%7.3%8.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.1%7.8%9.2%4.8%5.1%3.1%6.4%

Valuation

CATDEPCARCMITEXOSKMedian
NameCaterpil.Deere PACCAR Cummins Terex Oshkosh  
Mkt Cap279.5126.257.770.13.28.363.9
P/S4.33.21.81.70.60.81.7
P/EBIT18.314.315.414.08.88.514.1
P/E30.126.419.221.821.612.521.7
P/CFO24.216.111.016.68.28.513.5
Total Yield4.3%5.0%9.6%6.3%6.0%9.6%6.2%
Dividend Yield1.0%1.2%4.4%1.8%1.4%1.5%1.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.9%3.4%6.1%3.8%7.4%4.1%4.5%
D/E0.20.50.30.10.80.10.2
Net D/E0.20.40.10.10.60.10.1

Returns

CATDEPCARCMITEXOSKMedian
NameCaterpil.Deere PACCAR Cummins Terex Oshkosh  
1M Rtn5.9%-0.3%11.6%7.7%7.2%6.5%6.9%
3M Rtn41.5%-2.8%12.1%28.3%-6.0%-7.0%4.6%
6M Rtn67.7%-10.0%17.0%57.4%4.3%17.3%17.1%
12M Rtn53.3%6.5%-1.3%36.4%-5.4%23.0%14.7%
3Y Rtn176.2%11.8%84.5%129.0%17.8%56.3%70.4%
1M Excs Rtn2.8%-3.8%10.1%8.3%4.8%1.1%3.8%
3M Excs Rtn38.0%-6.7%7.8%24.0%-8.4%-10.0%0.5%
6M Excs Rtn53.7%-24.0%3.0%43.4%-9.7%3.3%3.1%
12M Excs Rtn39.1%-8.8%-15.9%24.4%-22.5%3.1%-2.9%
3Y Excs Rtn98.4%-57.9%8.4%50.8%-54.7%-19.9%-5.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Financial Products Segment35,68534,26934,86034,27835,813
Liabilities included in segment assets11,78112,51910,7778,4668,541
Energy & Transportation10,5559,4559,2538,5828,548
Property, plant and equipment - net and other assets6,5484,2344,0562,8332,529
Cash and cash equivalents6,1066,0428,4288,8227,299
Resource Industries5,7425,7755,9626,0356,505
Construction Industries5,3845,1684,5474,2594,601
Goodwill and intangible assets4,4524,2484,8594,8474,435
Deferred income taxes2,6682,0981,7351,4131,294
All Other Segment1,8901,8281,6781,7171,728
Other-166-630-706-392-414
Inventory methodology differences-3,169-3,063-2,656-2,536-2,426
Total87,47681,94382,79378,32478,453


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,384,502
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-5.6%
Average Daily Volume2,536,449
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.52
Basic Shares Quantity468,600,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/202511.6%4.4%9.4%
8/5/20250.1%-5.8%-4.3%
4/30/20250.6%4.4%14.4%
1/30/2025-4.6%-8.7%-12.5%
10/30/2024-2.1%-1.1%4.2%
8/6/20243.0%6.1%6.3%
4/25/2024-7.0%-8.9%-3.5%
2/5/20242.0%0.7%5.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91215
# Negative15129
Median Positive3.0%4.0%5.9%
Median Negative-3.0%-4.2%-4.3%
Max Positive11.6%8.9%19.7%
Max Negative-7.0%-8.9%-12.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023216202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211103202110-Q 9/30/2021