Tearsheet

Caterpillar (CAT)


Market Price (10/19/2025): $527.51 | Market Cap: $247.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Caterpillar (CAT)


Market Price (10/19/2025): $527.51
Market Cap: $247.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.7 Bil
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.6%, Dist 3Y High is -2.6%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.7%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.7 Bil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.6%, Dist 3Y High is -2.6%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.7%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

CAT Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CAT Return27%16%19%26%25%47%303%
Peers Return27%16%4%18%19%17%151%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CAT Win Rate75%58%50%50%67%56% 
Peers Win Rate63%57%43%52%53%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CAT Max Drawdown-37%-0%-20%-13%-6%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-42%-8%-27%-12%-13%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DE, ALSN, TEX, ASTE, CAT. See CAT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventCATS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven101 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven170 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-34.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven52.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven748 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-74.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven292.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven639 days1480 days


How Low Can It Go?

Caterpillar's stock fell -33.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/17/2021. A -33.6% loss requires a 50.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

Better Bets than Caterpillar (CAT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CAT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
FCN_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025FCNFTI ConsultingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.8%-5.8%-6.2%
ODFL_9122025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09122025ODFLOld Dominion Freight LineMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.7%-4.7%-7.3%
EFX_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025EFXEquifaxMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.9%-7.9%-8.5%
UHAL_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025UHALU-HaulMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-3.6%-3.6%-5.6%
BWXT_8312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312025BWXTBWX TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
25.4%25.4%-1.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
FCN_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025FCNFTI ConsultingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.8%-5.8%-6.2%
ODFL_9122025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09122025ODFLOld Dominion Freight LineMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.7%-4.7%-7.3%
EFX_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025EFXEquifaxMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.9%-7.9%-8.5%
UHAL_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025UHALU-HaulMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-3.6%-3.6%-5.6%
BWXT_8312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312025BWXTBWX TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
25.4%25.4%-1.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Caterpillar

Financials

CATDEALSNTEXASTEMedian
NameCaterpil.Deere Allison .Terex Astec In. 
Mkt Price527.08458.5080.8853.0146.1980.88
Mkt Cap247.6124.16.83.51.16.8
Rev LTM63,13943,3973,2005,0641,3105,064
Op Inc LTM11,5108,6631,000437781,000
FCF LTM7,7404,10165420178654
FCF 3Y Avg8,3493,986646229-11646
CFO LTM11,3738,55682233992822
CFO 3Y Avg11,5178,52279435917794

Growth & Margins

CATDEALSNTEXASTEMedian
NameCaterpil.Deere Allison .Terex Astec In. 
Rev Chg LTM-4.9%-20.9%2.7%-2.8%1.2%-2.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.8%-0.6%8.0%8.3%5.1%5.8%
Rev Chg Q-0.7%-8.3%-0.2%-4.9%-4.4%-4.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.2%-2.4%-0.1%-1.2%-1.1%-1.1%
Op Mgn LTM18.2%20.0%31.2%8.6%5.9%18.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg18.8%22.3%30.3%10.6%4.0%18.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.9%-1.2%-0.2%-1.6%0.9%-0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM18.0%19.7%25.7%6.7%7.1%18.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.8%16.5%25.7%7.2%1.4%16.5%
FCF/Rev LTM12.3%9.4%20.4%4.0%5.9%9.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg12.9%7.8%20.9%4.6%-0.8%7.8%

Valuation

CATDEALSNTEXASTEMedian
NameCaterpil.Deere Allison .Terex Astec In. 
Mkt Cap247.6124.16.83.51.16.8
P/S3.92.92.10.70.82.1
P/EBIT20.312.96.78.514.212.9
P/E26.223.88.914.223.023.0
P/CFO21.814.58.310.411.411.4
Total Yield4.9%5.6%11.6%8.4%5.5%5.6%
Dividend Yield1.1%1.4%0.4%1.3%1.1%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg5.4%3.4%10.1%6.4%-1.4%5.4%
D/E0.20.50.40.70.10.4
Net D/E0.10.50.20.70.00.2

Returns

CATDEALSNTEXASTEMedian
NameCaterpil.Deere Allison .Terex Astec In. 
1M Rtn12.9%-3.4%-9.2%-0.7%-4.9%-3.4%
3M Rtn27.4%-7.9%-7.0%7.8%22.0%7.8%
6M Rtn80.6%2.1%-8.7%54.8%36.0%36.0%
12M Rtn35.9%13.8%-19.0%-4.2%45.3%13.8%
3Y Rtn202.0%28.7%129.0%65.2%33.5%65.2%
1M Excs Rtn12.4%-3.8%-9.6%-1.2%-5.4%-3.8%
3M Excs Rtn22.9%-13.0%-11.2%4.2%15.7%4.2%
6M Excs Rtn54.5%-24.0%-34.8%28.6%9.9%9.9%
12M Excs Rtn23.4%1.1%-31.7%-18.1%32.3%1.1%
3Y Excs Rtn123.9%-54.0%49.1%-13.0%-42.8%-13.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Energy & Transportation28,00123,75220,28714,66418,485
Construction Industries27,41825,26922,10616,87622,556
Resource Industries13,58312,3149,8107,4469,813
Financial Products Segment3,7853,2533,0733,0443,434
All Other Segment449450511113127
Corporate Items and Eliminations-6,176-5,611-4,816-395-615
Total67,06059,42750,97141,74853,800


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Financial Products Segment35,685    
Liabilities included in segment assets11,781    
Energy & Transportation10,555    
Property, plant and equipment - net and other assets6,548    
Cash and cash equivalents6,106    
Resource Industries5,742    
Construction Industries5,384    
Goodwill and intangible assets4,452    
Deferred income taxes2,668    
All Other Segment1,890    
Other-166    
Inventory methodology differences-3,169    
Total87,476    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,315,366
Short Interest: % Change Since 91520255.4%
Average Daily Volume3,328,114
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.20
Basic Shares Quantity469,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/5/20250.1%-5.8%-4.3%
4/30/20250.6%4.4%14.4%
1/30/2025-4.6%-8.7%-12.5%
10/30/2024-2.1%-1.1%4.2%
8/6/20243.0%6.1%6.3%
4/25/2024-7.0%-8.9%-3.5%
2/5/20242.0%0.7%5.9%
10/31/2023-6.7%-1.6%3.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91215
# Negative15129
Median Positive2.0%4.0%5.9%
Median Negative-3.0%-4.2%-4.3%
Max Positive8.9%8.9%19.7%
Max Negative-7.0%-8.9%-12.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023216202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211103202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Umpleby III Donald JExecutive Chairman9032025Sell412.8717,1687,088,152199,211,839Form
1SCHWAB SUSAN C8192025Sell410.002,324952,8402,835,970Form
2MacLennan David5082025Buy320.70375120,2622,133,617Form
3Johnson Gerald5052025Buy318.4810031,8481,007,989Form
4Kaiser JasonGroup President2192025Sell354.702,425860,1482,225,742Form