Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
Market Price (3/6/2026): $62.87 | Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
Market Price (3/6/2026): $62.87Market Cap: $2.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 5.2% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 65% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% | Key risksCAKE key risks include [1] a persistent "traffic problem" due to cautious consumer spending and [2] high financial leverage from a significant debt load, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Culinary Trends & Innovation. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Gourmet Casual Dining. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 5.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Culinary Trends & Innovation. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Gourmet Casual Dining. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 65% |
| Key risksCAKE key risks include [1] a persistent "traffic problem" due to cautious consumer spending and [2] high financial leverage from a significant debt load, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) stock has gained about 35% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Cheesecake Factory exceeded Q4 2025 earnings and revenue expectations while providing optimistic 2026 guidance. The company reported Q4 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.00, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.98 by 2.04%. Quarterly revenue grew 4.4% year-over-year to $961.56 million, also beating the consensus estimate of $949.03 million by 1.34%. For fiscal 2026, management projected total revenues of approximately $3.9 billion (±1%), anticipating continued growth and stable margins. This strong financial performance and positive outlook contributed significantly to the stock's upward trend.
2. The company demonstrated a commitment to increased shareholder returns. Alongside its Q4 2025 results, Cheesecake Factory announced a $0.03 increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to $0.30 per share. Additionally, the company expanded its share repurchase authorization by 5.0 million shares, signaling confidence in its financial position and its ability to return capital to shareholders.
Show more
1. Cheesecake Factory exceeded Q4 2025 earnings and revenue expectations while providing optimistic 2026 guidance. The company reported Q4 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.00, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.98 by 2.04%. Quarterly revenue grew 4.4% year-over-year to $961.56 million, also beating the consensus estimate of $949.03 million by 1.34%. For fiscal 2026, management projected total revenues of approximately $3.9 billion (±1%), anticipating continued growth and stable margins. This strong financial performance and positive outlook contributed significantly to the stock's upward trend.
2. The company demonstrated a commitment to increased shareholder returns. Alongside its Q4 2025 results, Cheesecake Factory announced a $0.03 increase in its quarterly dividend, raising it to $0.30 per share. Additionally, the company expanded its share repurchase authorization by 5.0 million shares, signaling confidence in its financial position and its ability to return capital to shareholders.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.8% change in CAKE stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 43.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.44 | 62.99 | 32.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,711 | 3,752 | 1.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.3% | 4.0% | -8.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.7 | 19.8 | 43.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 47 | 47 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.8% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAKE | 32.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -0.3% | 30.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.4% | 28.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.6% change in CAKE stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 60.82 | 62.99 | 3.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,669 | 3,752 | 2.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.3% | 4.0% | -8.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.8 | 19.8 | 11.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 46 | 47 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.6% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAKE | 3.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.9% | 25.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.8% | 29.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 19.6% change in CAKE stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 52.68 | 62.99 | 19.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,582 | 3,752 | 4.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.4% | 4.0% | -9.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.1 | 19.8 | 22.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 48 | 47 | 2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 19.6% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAKE | 19.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.7% | 50.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 8.7% | 53.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 83.2% change in CAKE stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 203.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.38 | 62.99 | 83.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,303 | 3,752 | 13.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.3% | 4.0% | 203.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.0 | 19.8 | -49.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 47 | 4.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 83.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAKE | 83.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.3% | 42.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 64.0% | 45.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CAKE Return | 6% | -17% | 14% | 39% | 9% | 27% | 93% |
| Peers Return | 2% | -8% | 35% | 43% | -6% | 2% | 74% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 0% | 83% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CAKE Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 38% | 62% | 58% | 43% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CAKE Max Drawdown | -4% | -32% | -8% | -8% | -7% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -30% | -5% | -22% | -22% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DRI, EAT, TXRH, BLMN, BJRI. See CAKE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CAKE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,098 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 179.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 293 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,163 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -81.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 442.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 510 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to DRI, EAT, TXRH, BLMN, BJRI
In The Past
Cheesecake Factory's stock fell -58.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -58.6% loss requires a 141.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates restaurants. It operates two bakeries that produces cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors. The company owns and operates 306 restaurants throughout the United States and Canada under brands, including 208 The Cheesecake Factory and 29 North Italia; and a collection of Fox Restaurant Concepts, as well as 29 The Cheesecake Factory restaurants under licensing agreements internationally. The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Calabasas, California.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe The Cheesecake Factory:
- Amazon for sit-down meals: Known for an incredibly vast menu with something for every taste and preference, similar to how Amazon offers an immense variety of products.
- A more upscale and diverse Applebee's: It's a casual dining chain, but offers a significantly broader menu, larger portions, signature desserts (cheesecakes), and a slightly more premium, consistent atmosphere than typical family dining restaurants like Applebee's or Chili's.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Cheesecakes: A diverse selection of signature cheesecakes and other desserts available for dine-in, takeout, and wholesale.
- Full-Service Restaurant Dining: Provides an extensive menu of appetizers, entrees, and various dishes within a casual dining atmosphere.
- Beverages: Offers a wide array of alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks, including cocktails, wine, beer, and soft drinks.
- Gift Cards: Provides physical and digital gift cards for purchase, redeemable for food and beverages at their restaurants.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlThe Cheesecake Factory (symbol: CAKE) primarily sells to **individuals**, not other companies. As such, the company serves various categories of direct consumers.
Customer Categories for The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE):
- Casual Diners: This is the broadest category, encompassing individuals, couples, families, and groups of friends looking for a diverse menu in a comfortable, upscale-casual dining environment for lunch or dinner. These customers are seeking a reliable and varied dining experience with generous portion sizes.
- Celebratory & Group Gatherings: Many customers choose The Cheesecake Factory for special occasions such as birthdays, anniversaries, graduations, or larger social gatherings. The extensive menu, accommodating atmosphere, and well-known desserts make it a popular choice for these celebratory events.
- Dessert Enthusiasts/Takeout Customers: A significant portion of customers are drawn specifically to The Cheesecake Factory's famous and extensive selection of cheesecakes, whether for dine-in dessert after a meal, or for takeout to enjoy at home or at events. Additionally, customers seeking convenient takeout meals from their broad menu also fall into this category.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
David Overton, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
David Overton co-founded The Cheesecake Factory's predecessor company in 1972 with his parents, Evelyn and Oscar Overton, and opened the first The Cheesecake Factory restaurant in Beverly Hills, California, in 1978. He has served as CEO since the company's incorporation in 1992. Mr. Overton is credited with creating additional concepts including Grand Lux Cafe, RockSugar Southeast Asian Kitchen (also known as RockSugar Pan Asian Kitchen), and Social Monk Asian Kitchen.
Matthew E. Clark, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Matthew E. Clark was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in 2017. He joined The Cheesecake Factory in 2006 as Vice President of Strategic Planning. Prior to joining the company, Mr. Clark held various finance positions at Groupe Danone, Kinko's, and The Walt Disney Company.
David M. Gordon, President
David M. Gordon was appointed President of the company in February 2013. He started at The Cheesecake Factory in 1993 as a Manager and progressed through several operational roles, including General Manager, Area Director of Operations, Regional Vice President, and Chief Operating Officer, before becoming President.
Scarlett May, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary
Scarlett May joined The Cheesecake Factory in 2018. Before her current role, she was Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary at Brinker International, Inc. from 2014 to 2018. Prior to that, Ms. May served as Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary for Ruby Tuesday, Inc.
Keith T. Carango, President, The Cheesecake Factory Bakery Incorporated
Keith T. Carango serves as President of The Cheesecake Factory Bakery Incorporated, a subsidiary of the company. He joined the bakery operations in 1996. Earlier in his career, Mr. Carango held manufacturing and finance roles at Frito-Lay, Inc. and Prince Foods.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from macroeconomic factors and its financial structure:
- Cautious Consumer Sentiment and Macroeconomic Pressures: The most significant risk is the prevailing cautious consumer sentiment and broader macroeconomic pressures, which can lead to reduced discretionary spending on dining out. This results in flat comparable restaurant sales and a "traffic problem," meaning fewer customers are visiting, directly impacting revenue despite strong brand loyalty.
- Labor and Commodity Inflation: The company faces persistent cost inflation in both labor and commodities, which consistently pressures its profitability and net income margins. Managing these rising expenses through operational efficiency and productivity improvements is crucial to maintain margins.
- High Financial Leverage and Debt: The Cheesecake Factory operates with a high degree of financial leverage, evidenced by a significant debt-to-equity ratio and substantial outstanding debt, including convertible senior notes due in 2026 and 2030. This financial structure presents a clear risk, requiring careful capital allocation decisions and potentially limiting flexibility for future investments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The clear emerging threat to Cheesecake Factory is the ongoing and accelerating shift in consumer dining preferences, particularly among younger demographics, away from large, undifferentiated full-service casual dining experiences towards more specialized, experiential, or value-driven alternatives. This trend effectively 'squeezes the middle' of the restaurant market, challenging CAKE's model of an extensive menu and large portions as consumers increasingly seek out fast-casual concepts offering specific cuisines or quick convenience, independent restaurants providing unique or local experiences, or even high-quality at-home dining solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) operates a portfolio of full-service restaurants, including The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and other Fox Restaurant Concepts brands, predominantly in the United States and Canada. The company also has a bakery division that produces cheesecakes and other baked goods for its restaurants, international licensees, and third-party customers. The primary addressable markets for its main products and services are the full-service restaurant market in the U.S. and the global casual dining market.
- U.S. Full-Service Restaurant Market: The addressable market for full-service restaurants in the United States is valued at approximately USD 360.91 billion in 2025. This market is projected to reach USD 617.47 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.33%.
- Global Casual Dining Market: The global casual dining market size was valued at USD 333.02 billion in 2025. This market is expected to reach USD 575.5 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 5.5% from 2025 to 2035. North America contributes 28% of the global casual dining market share.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies: * New Restaurant Openings and Expansion: The company plans significant unit growth across its portfolio of brands. In its current fiscal year (2025), The Cheesecake Factory aims to open as many as 25 new restaurants, including its flagship Cheesecake Factory locations, North Italia units, Flower Child locations, and other Fox Restaurant Concepts. Longer-term, there are goals to add approximately 85 more Cheesecake Factory restaurants in the U.S. to reach a total of 300, and potentially hundreds of North Italia, Flower Child, and Culinary Dropout locations. * Menu Innovation and New Product Introductions: A core strategy involves continuous menu innovation to maintain customer interest and appeal. The Cheesecake Factory has recently launched new dishes, including 14 new items within "Bites" and "Bowls" categories in 2025, which are reportedly resonating well with guests. This focus on culinary innovation is a key differentiator. * Growth of Acquired Brands: The performance and expansion of acquired concepts like North Italia and Flower Child are significant revenue drivers. North Italia and Flower Child have demonstrated substantial sales growth, with ambitious plans for further unit development for these brands. * Strategic Pricing: The Cheesecake Factory maintains a premium pricing strategy, adjusting prices based on location to optimize profitability while emphasizing value through large portions. Management's sales guidance has factored in menu pricing as crucial for achieving targeted margins, aiming to provide exceptional value without relying heavily on discounts. * Growth in Off-Premise Dining: The company has a strong and growing off-premise dining channel, encompassing takeout and delivery services. This segment accounted for 22% of total revenue in Q1 2025, up from 11% in fiscal year 2016, indicating its increasing importance as a revenue stream.AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- The Cheesecake Factory has a standing authorization to repurchase up to 61.0 million shares of its common stock, with 59.7 million shares cumulatively repurchased at a total cost of $1,972.4 million through September 30, 2025.
- The company repurchased approximately $63.132 million in shares during 2023 and $64.313 million in 2024.
- Recent repurchases include $1.2 million in Q3 2025 for 18,900 shares and $0.1 million in Q2 2025 for 2,500 shares.
Share Issuance
- In June 2021, The Cheesecake Factory completed offerings including $175 million of common stock, which, along with the conversion of preferred stock, increased shares outstanding by approximately 5.5 million shares as part of a recapitalization effort.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures have shown an increasing trend, rising from $50.329 million in 2020 to $160.4 million in 2024.
- Expected capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 are projected to range between $190 million and $210 million.
- The primary focus of these expenditures is on accelerating new unit development, with plans to open as many as 25 new restaurants in 2025 across its portfolio, including The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and other Fox Restaurant Concepts (FRC) brands.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to CAKE.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | MBLY | Mobileye Global | Dip Buy | DB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % EquityBuying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | SAH | Sonic Automotive | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.9% | -5.9% | -6.1% |
| 02132026 | MAT | Mattel | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | SONO | Sonos | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.7% | -0.7% | -4.6% |
| 02062026 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.6% | 1.6% | -0.8% |
| 06302022 | CAKE | Cheesecake Factory | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 22.3% | 35.1% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 101.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| Rev LTM | 4,822 |
| Op Inc LTM | 369 |
| FCF LTM | 245 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 218 |
| CFO LTM | 516 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 444 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 15.7 |
| P/E | 20.5 |
| P/CFO | 9.1 |
| Total Yield | 7.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 64.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $62.99 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/18/1992 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -6.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $58.89 | $56.41 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 7.0% | 11.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 35.9% | 36.7% |
| Downside Capture | 40.17 | 94.46 |
| Upside Capture | 221.42 | 104.35 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.6% | 49.2% |
CAKE Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.00 | 1.24 | 1.05 | 0.75 | 0.97 | 0.98 |
| Up Beta | -1.05 | -0.33 | 0.56 | 1.09 | 0.89 | 1.00 |
| Down Beta | 0.64 | 0.98 | 0.58 | 0.74 | 0.99 | 0.93 |
| Up Capture | 281% | 324% | 267% | 64% | 111% | 100% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 25 | 38 | 63 | 135 | 374 |
| Down Capture | 63% | 69% | 44% | 67% | 100% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 23 | 61 | 116 | 374 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAKE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAKE | 28.7% | 36.7% | 0.75 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 24.0% | 0.44 | 53.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.2% | 19.1% | 0.79 | 49.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 74.7% | 26.1% | 2.12 | 1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.1% | 0.87 | 17.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 16.6% | 0.15 | 47.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.6% | 45.6% | -0.26 | 22.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAKE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAKE | 5.0% | 40.8% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 8.5% | 23.7% | 0.32 | 50.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.0% | 0.65 | 46.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.7% | 17.2% | 1.12 | 5.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 19.0% | 0.50 | 8.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 18.8% | 0.19 | 39.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.5% | 56.9% | 0.38 | 20.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAKE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAKE | 4.4% | 44.1% | 0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.2% | 21.9% | 0.55 | 50.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 49.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.8% | 15.6% | 0.79 | 1.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 17.6% | 0.43 | 15.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 20.7% | 0.26 | 46.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.3% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 12.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/18/2026 | -2.6% | 3.4% | |
| 10/28/2025 | -7.3% | -12.1% | -11.6% |
| 7/29/2025 | 5.2% | -2.5% | -1.6% |
| 4/30/2025 | -4.4% | -0.5% | 10.1% |
| 2/19/2025 | 1.3% | -1.2% | -10.1% |
| 10/29/2024 | 8.8% | 9.0% | 16.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | -5.2% | -11.1% | 1.8% |
| 5/8/2024 | 6.2% | 20.7% | 15.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 5.8% | 10.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -2.0% | -9.7% |
| Max Positive | 8.8% | 20.7% | 34.3% |
| Max Negative | -13.2% | -20.8% | -18.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gordon, David M | PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 8152025 | 63.06 | 43,335 | 2,732,839 | 1,547,064 | Form |
| 2 | Cappello, Alexander L | Maricopa Capital LLC | Sell | 8012025 | 65.88 | 12,388 | 816,121 | 448,379 | Form | |
| 3 | May, Scarlett | EVP, GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 6102025 | 58.82 | 18,800 | 1,105,846 | 1,345,368 | Form |
| 4 | May, Scarlett | EVP, GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 5302025 | 56.02 | 20,800 | 1,165,121 | 1,281,185 | Form |
| 5 | Carango, Keith | PRESIDENT (SUBSIDIARY) | Direct | Sell | 5292025 | 55.12 | 50,500 | 2,783,378 | 1,144,988 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.