Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
Market Price (6/22/2026): $77.12 | Market Cap: $3.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
Market Price (6/22/2026): $77.12Market Cap: $3.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Culinary Trends & Innovation. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Gourmet Casual Dining. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 53% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 51% Key risksCAKE key risks include [1] a persistent "traffic problem" due to cautious consumer spending and [2] high financial leverage from a significant debt load, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Culinary Trends & Innovation. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Gourmet Casual Dining. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 53% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 51% |
| Key risksCAKE key risks include [1] a persistent "traffic problem" due to cautious consumer spending and [2] high financial leverage from a significant debt load, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) stock has gained about 20% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Performance Exceeded Expectations.
The Cheesecake Factory reported robust results for its fiscal first quarter, which ended March 31, 2026. The company posted adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.05, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.03 by 1.9%. Revenues reached $978.8 million, growing 5.6% year-over-year and exceeding the company's guidance range. Furthermore, comparable restaurant sales at The Cheesecake Factory brand increased by 1.6% year-over-year, outperforming the broader casual dining industry by 40 basis points, with restaurant-level profit margins improving 10 basis points year-over-year to 17.5%. The brand also achieved a new all-time high in average annualized unit volume (AUV) of $12.8 million.
2. Favorable Analyst Sentiment and Increased Price Targets.
Following the strong earnings report, several Wall Street analysts reiterated positive ratings and raised their price targets for CAKE. Oppenheimer, for instance, upgraded its price objective from $68.00 to $72.00 with an "outperform" rating on April 21, 2026. Citigroup increased its target price from $75.00 to $76.00 on April 30, 2026. These revised targets and positive outlooks contributed to investor confidence and upward pressure on the stock price.
Show more
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) stock has gained about 20% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Performance Exceeded Expectations.
The Cheesecake Factory reported robust results for its fiscal first quarter, which ended March 31, 2026. The company posted adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.05, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.03 by 1.9%. Revenues reached $978.8 million, growing 5.6% year-over-year and exceeding the company's guidance range. Furthermore, comparable restaurant sales at The Cheesecake Factory brand increased by 1.6% year-over-year, outperforming the broader casual dining industry by 40 basis points, with restaurant-level profit margins improving 10 basis points year-over-year to 17.5%. The brand also achieved a new all-time high in average annualized unit volume (AUV) of $12.8 million.
2. Favorable Analyst Sentiment and Increased Price Targets.
Following the strong earnings report, several Wall Street analysts reiterated positive ratings and raised their price targets for CAKE. Oppenheimer, for instance, upgraded its price objective from $68.00 to $72.00 with an "outperform" rating on April 21, 2026. Citigroup increased its target price from $75.00 to $76.00 on April 30, 2026. These revised targets and positive outlooks contributed to investor confidence and upward pressure on the stock price.
3. Strategic Initiatives and Shareholder Returns.
The company demonstrated a commitment to shareholder value through its capital allocation strategy. During fiscal Q1 2026, The Cheesecake Factory repurchased approximately 332,000 shares of its stock at a cost of $19.2 million. Additionally, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share, payable on May 26, 2026. The successful launch and engagement of the new Cheesecake Rewards app also contributed to positive sentiment, indicating effective customer engagement strategies and potential for future growth.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.3% change in CAKE stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 64.16 | 77.19 | 20.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,752 | 3,803 | 1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.0% | 4.3% | 9.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.2 | 21.8 | 8.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 47 | 47 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAKE | 20.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | 26.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.5% | 30.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 63.5% change in CAKE stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 59.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 47.20 | 77.19 | 63.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,711 | 3,803 | 2.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.3% | 4.3% | 0.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.7 | 21.8 | 59.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 47 | 47 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 63.5% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAKE | 63.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 27.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.5% | 29.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 42.7% change in CAKE stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 32.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 54.09 | 77.19 | 42.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,618 | 3,803 | 5.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.3% | 4.3% | 0.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.4 | 21.8 | 32.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 48 | 47 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 42.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAKE | 42.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 28.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 10.5% | 33.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 165.5% change in CAKE stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 205.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.08 | 77.19 | 165.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,376 | 3,803 | 12.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.4% | 4.3% | 205.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.5 | 21.8 | -26.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 49 | 47 | 4.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 165.5% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAKE | 165.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 42.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 58.4% | 44.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CAKE Return | 6% | -17% | 14% | 39% | 9% | 51% | 128% |
| Peers Return | 2% | -8% | 35% | 43% | -6% | 18% | 101% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CAKE Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 38% | 62% | 58% | 43% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CAKE Max Drawdown | -42% | -38% | -28% | -16% | -36% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -35% | -27% | -28% | -36% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DRI, EAT, TXRH, BLMN, BJRI. See CAKE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CAKE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -18.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 327 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 194 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -62.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 287 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 755 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Cheesecake Factory's stock fell -18.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | CAKE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 85 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -31.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 194 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -62.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 167.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 287 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 363 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.9% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 123 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -77.4% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 342.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 449 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Cheesecake Factory's stock fell -18.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) is a restaurant company primarily operating in the United States and Canada. Its portfolio includes 306 company-owned restaurants under various popular brands, most notably 208 "The Cheesecake Factory" locations, 29 "North Italia" restaurants, and a collection of "Fox Restaurant Concepts." Additionally, the company's flagship brand has an international presence through 29 licensed "The Cheesecake Factory" restaurants.
Beyond its restaurant operations, CAKE distinguishes itself with two dedicated bakeries that produce its signature cheesecakes and other baked products. These high-quality desserts are supplied to the company's own restaurants and international licensees, but the bakeries also serve a broader market. This diversified customer base includes third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors, generating revenue from both direct consumers and wholesale channels.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Like Darden Restaurants (Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse), but with an iconic bakery division that also supplies its famous cheesecakes to grocery stores and other foodservice operators.
Imagine a full-service restaurant chain similar to Applebee's or Chili's, but famous for its vast menu and especially its iconic cheesecakes, which are also sold in grocery stores nationwide.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Restaurant Dining Services: Providing a full-service dining experience, including meals and beverages, across its various restaurant brands such as The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and Fox Restaurant Concepts.
- Baked Goods Manufacturing and Distribution: Producing and supplying cheesecakes and other baked products to its own restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, and other external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Cheesecake Factory (symbol: CAKE) primarily sells to individuals through its extensive network of owned and operated restaurants, and through its licensed international locations. While its bakeries also supply other businesses, the core business description points to direct consumer interaction via its restaurants.
The company serves the following categories of customers:
- Restaurant Diners: Individuals and groups who visit The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and Fox Restaurant Concepts locations for a full-service dining experience, encompassing meals, appetizers, and their renowned cheesecakes and other desserts. This represents the primary revenue stream from their owned and operated restaurants.
- Baked Goods Purchasers: Customers who purchase whole cheesecakes or other baked products for takeout, special occasions, or home consumption. These purchases can be made directly from the company's restaurants, or from third-party retailers that are supplied by the company's bakeries.
- International Patrons: Individuals who frequent the licensed The Cheesecake Factory restaurants located outside of the United States and Canada, experiencing the brand's offerings in international markets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
David Overton, Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
David Overton co-founded the predecessor company with his parents, Evelyn and Oscar Overton, in 1972. He opened the first The Cheesecake Factory restaurant in 1978 in Beverly Hills, California, establishing the concept. Under his leadership, The Cheesecake Factory expanded into an international brand, and he also created three other concepts: Grand Lux Cafe®, RockSugar Southeast Asian Kitchen®, and Social Monk Asian Kitchen®. He oversaw the acquisition of the North Italia® brand and the balance of Fox Restaurant Concepts. The company went public in 1992.
Matthew E. Clark, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Matthew E. Clark was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in 2017. He joined The Cheesecake Factory in 2006 as Vice President of Strategic Planning. Before his current role, he served as Senior Vice President, Finance and Strategy, overseeing strategy, financial planning, treasury, and risk management functions. Earlier in his career, he held finance positions at Groupe Danone, Kinko's, and The Walt Disney Company. He also led the company's minority investment in two external, high-growth restaurant brands. No information was found indicating that Mr. Clark founded or managed other companies, sold companies he was previously involved with to an acquirer, or has a pattern of managing companies backed by private equity firms.
David M. Gordon, President
David M. Gordon was appointed President of the Company in February 2013. He joined The Cheesecake Factory in 1993 as a Manager and progressed through various operational roles, including General Manager, Area Director of Operations, Regional Vice President, and Chief Operating Officer, prior to his appointment as President.
Keith T. Carango, President, The Cheesecake Factory Bakery Incorporated
Keith T. Carango serves as President of The Cheesecake Factory Bakery Incorporated. He joined the bakery operations in 1996, focusing on leading manufacturing and implementing continuous improvement initiatives. In his previous role as Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, he was responsible for strategic planning, supply chain, manufacturing, distribution, human resources, quality assurance, and finance. Before joining the Company, he held manufacturing and finance roles at Frito-Lay, Inc. and Prince Foods.
Scarlett May, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary
Scarlett May joined The Cheesecake Factory in 2018. Prior to this, she served as Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary at Brinker International, Inc. from 2014 to 2018. Her career also includes a role as Senior Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary for Ruby Tuesday, Inc.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Macroeconomic Headwinds and Soft Consumer Discretionary Spending: The most significant risk is the impact of broader economic conditions on consumer spending, directly affecting customer traffic and comparable restaurant sales. Recent reports indicate softness in traffic at flagship The Cheesecake Factory locations, leading to essentially flat or declining same-store sales despite steady check averages. This suggests fewer people are visiting the restaurants, reflecting a sensitivity to consumers' discretionary income and overall economic uncertainties.
- Rising Operating Costs, Including Wage Inflation and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: The company continues to face persistent cost inflation, particularly related to labor (wage inflation) and commodities. Geopolitical and macroeconomic events can exacerbate these issues, potentially leading to further wage inflation, disruptions in the supply chain for fresh ingredients, and staffing challenges. These factors directly impact the company's profitability and financial performance.
- Intense Competition and Evolving Consumer Preferences: The restaurant industry is highly competitive, with The Cheesecake Factory competing against a wide array of national and regional chains, independent establishments, and the growing fast-casual and quick-service segments. Moreover, consumer dining preferences are continuously evolving, with a shift towards healthier, faster, and more affordable options. The company's business model, including its large menu and presence in some declining shopping malls, requires continuous adaptation and innovation to maintain market share and relevance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (symbol: CAKE) operates in the full-service restaurant and bakery product markets. The addressable markets for its main products and services are as follows:
Restaurant Services
- United States Full-Service Restaurant Market: The market size was valued at approximately USD 362.15 billion in 2025 and is predicted to value at US$ 371.9 billion in 2025. Another estimate places the U.S. full-service restaurant sector at USD 336.22 billion in 2024, growing to USD 807.83 billion by 2033.
- Canada Full-Service Restaurant Market: The industry revenue in Canada expanded to approximately C$47.2 billion over the five years to 2025. Consumer spending on full-service restaurants in Canada recovered to Can$25,913.7 million in 2022. Full-service chain restaurant sales in Canada's top 200 chains are anticipated to reach $47 billion in 2024.
Bakery Products
- United States Bakery Products Market: The U.S. market held over USD 135.1 billion in 2024. Another report estimated the bakery products market in the U.S. at US$141.4 Billion in 2023.
- Canada Bakery Products Market: Based on the North America bakery products market size projected to be US$ 95.2 billion in 2025 and the U.S. accounting for approximately 66.2% of that market, the Canadian share of the North American bakery products market would be approximately 33.8%, translating to roughly USD 32.18 billion in 2025. Canada's bakery products market is forecast to grow at 3.7% over the 2023-2030 period.
- Global Bakery Products Market: The global bakery products market was valued at USD 602 billion in 2024. It was estimated at US$536.4 Billion in 2023 and is projected to reach US$734.5 Billion by 2030.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Revenue Growth Drivers for The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
Over the next 2-3 years, The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key initiatives:
- New Restaurant Openings: The company plans to continue its unit expansion across its brand portfolio, including The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, and other Fox Restaurant Concepts (FRC) such as Flower Child. For instance, in fiscal year 2025, the company was on track to open as many as 25 new restaurants. This aggressive development strategy contributes directly to top-line growth. For instance, 25 new restaurant openings in fiscal 2025 supported a record annual revenue. Furthermore, the guidance for fiscal year 2026 implies 26 new openings.
- Growth and Diversification Through North Italia and Fox Restaurant Concepts (FRC): The strategic acquisition and ongoing expansion of North Italia and the broader Fox Restaurant Group (FRG) concepts are crucial growth engines. These brands are projected to contribute nearly a third of total revenue in 2025, diversifying the company's revenue streams beyond its flagship Cheesecake Factory restaurants. The growth of North Italia and Flower Child, in particular, is highlighted as pivotal for overall company growth. North Italia saw comparable sales increase by 3% in the first quarter of fiscal 2024.
- Strategic Menu Price Adjustments: The Cheesecake Factory has demonstrated its ability to implement menu price increases to offset inflationary pressures and enhance revenue. For example, a 3.7% menu price increase in October 2023 contributed to margin improvement. These pricing strategies help increase the average check size and contribute to overall revenue growth per customer.
- Sustained Comparable Restaurant Sales Growth Driven by Traffic and Off-Premise Momentum: Despite some fluctuations, The Cheesecake Factory restaurants consistently aim to outperform the casual dining industry in terms of traffic. The company also maintains a stable off-premise sales mix, which was approximately 22% in the first quarter of fiscal 2024. This focus on drawing more customers and maintaining a strong digital and takeout presence helps bolster comparable restaurant sales.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- The company repurchased approximately 2.9 million shares at a cost of $153.9 million (excluding excise tax) during fiscal year 2025.
- In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, The Cheesecake Factory repurchased approximately 228,100 shares of its stock at a cost of $11.2 million.
- As of February 12, 2026, approximately 6.0 million shares remained available for repurchase under the existing program, which had an increase of 5.0 million shares approved by the Board of Directors, raising the total authorization to 66 million shares.
Share Issuance
- Proceeds from the exercise of stock options amounted to $12.5 million in fiscal year 2024.
- In the first quarter of fiscal 2025, proceeds from the exercise of options totaled $10.8 million.
Inbound Investments
- No significant inbound investments by third parties in The Cheesecake Factory were identified within the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments
- No significant outbound investments, such as strategic acquisitions of other companies, were identified within the last 3-5 years. The company's expansion primarily involves opening new units of its existing brands.
Capital Expenditures
- For fiscal year 2026, capital expenditures are anticipated to be approximately $210 million, focused on unit development and required maintenance for restaurants.
- Expected capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 were projected to range between $190 million and $210 million, supporting the opening of as many as 25 new restaurants across its brand portfolio including The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and other Fox Restaurant Concepts.
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2024 were $160.4 million, with $99.0 million allocated to new restaurants, $53.0 million for existing restaurants, and $8.4 million for bakery and corporate capacity and infrastructure investments.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 121.04 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.4 |
| Rev LTM | 4,850 |
| Op Inc LTM | 379 |
| FCF LTM | 263 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 227 |
| CFO LTM | 535 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 442 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 8.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 25.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.4 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 15.1 |
| P/EBIT | 18.2 |
| P/E | 24.1 |
| P/CFO | 10.3 |
| Total Yield | 6.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 25.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 73.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 17.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -2.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cheesecake Factory restaurants | 2,689 | 2,595 | 2,528 | 2,293 |
| Other | 362 | 322 | 309 | 280 |
| Other Fox Restaurant Concepts LLC (FRC) | 355 | 264 | 238 | 182 |
| North Italia | 346 | 259 | 229 | 172 |
| Total | 3,752 | 3,440 | 3,303 | 2,928 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Cheesecake Factory restaurants | 409 | 297 | 221 | 243 |
| North Italia | 18 | 19 | 14 | 9 |
| Other Fox Restaurant Concepts LLC (FRC) | 1 | 19 | 24 | 16 |
| Other | -241 | -226 | -219 | -185 |
| Total | 187 | 109 | 39 | 82 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Cheesecake Factory restaurants | 1,636 | 1,572 | 1,625 |
| Other | 736 | 523 | 542 |
| Other Fox Restaurant Concepts LLC (FRC) | 448 | 399 | 302 |
| North Italia | 442 | 347 | 307 |
| Total | 3,262 | 2,840 | 2,775 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $77.19 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/18/1992 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $63.56 | $56.75 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 21.5% | 36.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.6% | 34.8% |
| Downside Capture | -31.49 | 67.52 |
| Upside Capture | 85.37 | 80.43 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 15.3% | 27.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.74 | 1.28 | 1.16 | 1.08 | 1.01 | 1.02 |
| Up Beta | 2.06 | 1.92 | 1.40 | 0.98 | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| Down Beta | -0.96 | -0.52 | 1.40 | 1.06 | 1.11 | 0.99 |
| Up Capture | 82% | 119% | 82% | 153% | 83% | 116% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 24 | 33 | 71 | 134 | 377 |
| Down Capture | 40% | 82% | 115% | 84% | 95% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 17 | 30 | 53 | 116 | 370 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAKE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAKE | 33.6% | 34.6% | 0.88 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.3% | 18.4% | 0.49 | 33.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | 27.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 5.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | -13.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 26.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.4% | -1.08 | 16.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAKE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAKE | 9.1% | 40.1% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.1% | 23.8% | 0.26 | 51.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 46.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 5.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 5.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 39.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 22.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAKE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAKE | 6.5% | 44.5% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.6% | 22.1% | 0.52 | 49.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 48.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 1.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 13.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 45.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 12.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | 0.3% | -3.3% | 5.9% |
| 2/18/2026 | -2.6% | 2.9% | -10.3% |
| 10/28/2025 | -7.3% | -12.1% | -11.6% |
| 7/29/2025 | 5.2% | -2.5% | -1.6% |
| 4/30/2025 | -4.4% | -0.5% | 10.1% |
| 2/19/2025 | 1.3% | -1.2% | -10.1% |
| 10/29/2024 | 8.8% | 9.0% | 16.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | -5.2% | -11.1% | 1.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -2.9% | -10.1% |
| Max Positive | 8.8% | 20.7% | 26.4% |
| Max Negative | -13.2% | -20.8% | -18.6% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | 0.3% | -3.3% | 5.9% |
| 2/18/2026 | -2.6% | 2.9% | -10.3% |
| 10/28/2025 | -7.3% | -12.1% | -11.6% |
| 7/29/2025 | 5.2% | -2.5% | -1.6% |
| 4/30/2025 | -4.4% | -0.5% | 10.1% |
| 2/19/2025 | 1.3% | -1.2% | -10.1% |
| 10/29/2024 | 8.8% | 9.0% | 16.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | -5.2% | -11.1% | 1.8% |
| 5/8/2024 | 6.2% | 20.7% | 15.0% |
| 2/21/2024 | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% |
| 11/1/2023 | -2.0% | -1.6% | 7.5% |
| 8/2/2023 | -1.1% | -0.6% | -12.1% |
| 5/10/2023 | -3.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| 2/22/2023 | -5.1% | -6.1% | -15.3% |
| 11/1/2022 | -5.2% | -0.9% | 2.3% |
| 7/27/2022 | 4.9% | 9.9% | 19.7% |
| 4/27/2022 | 2.0% | 0.3% | -9.4% |
| 2/16/2022 | 0.4% | 2.8% | -6.8% |
| 11/3/2021 | 2.0% | 5.7% | -8.1% |
| 7/27/2021 | -13.2% | -20.8% | -18.6% |
| 4/28/2021 | 7.1% | 5.8% | -0.5% |
| 2/17/2021 | 8.2% | 17.3% | 26.4% |
| 10/29/2020 | -0.7% | 6.6% | 25.2% |
| 7/29/2020 | -4.3% | -9.1% | 7.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -2.9% | -10.1% |
| Max Positive | 8.8% | 20.7% | 26.4% |
| Max Negative | -13.2% | -20.8% | -18.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 06/22/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/12/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 New Restaurant Openings | 26 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 26 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 New The Cheesecake Factory Restaurant Openings | 6 | ||||||
| 2026 New North Italia Restaurant Openings | 6 | 6.5 | 7 | ||||
| 2026 New Flower Child Restaurant Openings | 6 | 6.5 | 7 | ||||
| 2026 New FRC Restaurant Openings | 7 | ||||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 New Restaurant Openings | 26 | 4.0% | Higher New | Actual: 25 for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cappello, Alexander L | Maricopa Capital LLC | Sell | 6042026 | 64.90 | 2,490 | 161,601 | 400,498 | Form | |
| 2 | Overton, David | CHAIRMAN AND C.E.O. | Trust | Sell | 5042026 | 61.02 | 104,000 | 6,346,080 | 187,928,115 | Form |
| 3 | May, Scarlett | EVP, GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 62.95 | 5,206 | 327,708 | 1,618,713 | Form |
| 4 | Alex, Spero G | EVP Operations - CFRI | Trust | Sell | 2262026 | 66.00 | 4,790 | Form | ||
| 5 | Clark, Matthew Eliot | EXEC VP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 65.70 | 7,000 | 459,900 | 2,896,713 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cappello, Alexander L | Maricopa Capital LLC | Sell | 6042026 | 64.90 | 2,490 | 161,601 | 400,498 | Form | |
| 2 | Overton, David | CHAIRMAN AND C.E.O. | Trust | Sell | 5042026 | 61.02 | 104,000 | 6,346,080 | 187,928,115 | Form |
| 3 | May, Scarlett | EVP, GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 62.95 | 5,206 | 327,708 | 1,618,713 | Form |
| 4 | Alex, Spero G | EVP Operations - CFRI | Trust | Sell | 2262026 | 66.00 | 4,790 | Form | ||
| 5 | Clark, Matthew Eliot | EXEC VP, CFO | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 65.70 | 7,000 | 459,900 | 2,896,713 | Form |
| 6 | Hanscom, Ashley W | PRINCIPAL ACCOUNTING OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 65.64 | 2,951 | 193,689 | 724,676 | Form |
| 7 | Cappello, Alexander L | Maricopa Capital LLC | Sell | 2252026 | 63.74 | 635 | 40,475 | 393,340 | Form | |
| 8 | Gordon, David M | PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 8152025 | 63.06 | 43,335 | 2,732,839 | 1,547,064 | Form |
| 9 | Cappello, Alexander L | Maricopa Capital LLC | Sell | 8012025 | 65.88 | 12,388 | 816,121 | 448,379 | Form | |
| 10 | May, Scarlett | EVP, GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 6102025 | 58.82 | 18,800 | 1,105,846 | 1,345,368 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.