Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $44.14 | Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $44.14Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.2%, FCF Yield is 7.7% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -35% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 94% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Culinary Trends & Innovation. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Gourmet Casual Dining. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 2.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.2%, FCF Yield is 7.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Culinary Trends & Innovation. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Gourmet Casual Dining. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -1.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -35% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 94% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
CAKE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) experienced a stock decline of 29.9% from July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025, due to several key factors:
1. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss and Flat Comparable Sales: The company reported Q3 2025 financial results where total revenues of $907.2 million slightly missed Wall Street expectations of $911.9 million. Additionally, comparable restaurant sales at The Cheesecake Factory locations increased by only 0.3% year-over-year in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, a deceleration from previous quarters and indicating slowing top-line growth.
2. Cautious Forward Outlook and Guidance Revision: Management's commentary reflected a cautious approach due to persistent industry-wide consumer softness and heightened competition. The company provided new revenue guidance anticipating a modest 1% dip in fourth-quarter revenues, with initial guidance for 2026 also falling short of consensus estimates for revenue growth and net income margins.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CAKE Return | -4% | 6% | -17% | 14% | 39% | -5% | 28% |
| Peers Return | 27% | 16% | -9% | 28% | 52% | -9% | 138% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CAKE Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 57% | 42% | 58% | 60% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CAKE Max Drawdown | -61% | -4% | -32% | -8% | -8% | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -54% | -12% | -27% | -5% | -10% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, CMG, YUM, DRI, EAT. See CAKE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CAKE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -58.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1098 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 179.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 293 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -46.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2163 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -81.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 442.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 510 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MCD, CMG, YUM, DRI, EAT
In The Past
Cheesecake Factory's stock fell -58.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -58.6% loss requires a 141.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CAKE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -5.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.6% | -1.6% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| 06302022 | CAKE | Cheesecake Factory | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 22.3% | 35.1% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -5.8% |
| 10312025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.6% | 1.6% | -2.4% |
| 10312025 | ATGE | Adtalem Global Education | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.6% | -1.6% | -5.9% |
| 10242025 | GNTX | Gentex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| 10172025 | LNW | Light & Wonder | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | -6.2% |
| 06302022 | CAKE | Cheesecake Factory | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 22.3% | 35.1% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cheesecake Factory
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 134.56 |
| Mkt Cap | 30.4 |
| Rev LTM | 9,924 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,733 |
| FCF LTM | 1,316 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,173 |
| CFO LTM | 1,837 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,651 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 30.4 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/EBIT | 15.4 |
| P/E | 22.0 |
| P/CFO | 14.9 |
| Total Yield | 7.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -19.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -17.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 4.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -23.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -29.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -8.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -40.3% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | -7.3% | -12.1% | |
| 7/29/2025 | 5.2% | -2.5% | -1.6% |
| 4/30/2025 | -4.4% | -0.5% | 10.1% |
| 2/19/2025 | 1.3% | -1.2% | -10.1% |
| 10/29/2024 | 8.8% | 9.0% | 16.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | -5.2% | -11.1% | 1.8% |
| 5/8/2024 | 6.2% | 20.7% | 15.0% |
| 2/21/2024 | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 11 | 13 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 5.8% | 10.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -2.5% | -9.7% |
| Max Positive | 8.8% | 20.7% | 34.3% |
| Max Negative | -13.2% | -20.8% | -49.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 7/1/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 4/1/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 10/1/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 7/2/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 4/2/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 1/2/2024 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 10/3/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 7/4/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 4/4/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 1/3/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/27/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8012022 | 10-Q 6/28/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/29/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/28/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |