Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.0%, Dividend Yield is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 9.9%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 153x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 23 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.6 Bil
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.4%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.0%, Dividend Yield is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 9.9%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 23 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.6 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 153x
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.4%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

BP Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BP Return-41%36%39%6%-12%16%23%
Peers Return-27%56%55%-4%1%-1%68%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BP Win Rate25%75%58%67%42%78% 
Peers Win Rate27%57%50%40%42%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BP Max Drawdown-58%0%-0%-3%-16%-10% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-0%0%-14%-6%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVX, COP, EOG, RRI, XOM. See BP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventBPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-23.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven31.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-62.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven167.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven835 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-23.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven30.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-57.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven133.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days


How Low Can It Go?

BP's stock fell -23.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -23.9% loss requires a 31.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

Interactive Breakdown

BP Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than BP (BP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
TDW_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025TDWTidewaterDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.1%-8.1%-10.0%
OKE_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025OKEONEOKDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.9%-7.9%-7.9%
LEU_8312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312025LEUCentrus EnergyQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
105.9%105.9%-1.3%
KNTK_5312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy05312025KNTKKinetikDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-17.3%-17.3%-17.7%
WHD_4302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.5%-5.5%-11.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
TDW_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025TDWTidewaterDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.1%-8.1%-10.0%
OKE_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025OKEONEOKDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.9%-7.9%-7.9%
LEU_8312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312025LEUCentrus EnergyQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
105.9%105.9%-1.3%
KNTK_5312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy05312025KNTKKinetikDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-17.3%-17.3%-17.7%
WHD_4302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04302025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.5%-5.5%-11.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for BP

Financials

BPCVXCOPEOGRRIXOMMedian
NameBP Chevron ConocoPh.EOG Reso.Roosevel.Exxon Mo. 
Mkt Price33.13153.0886.48106.22-112.24106.22
Mkt Cap86.4263.2108.757.7-486.1108.7
Rev LTM186,538187,73657,79822,712-329,385186,538
Op Inc LTM12,82715,72912,7027,762-37,57212,827
FCF LTM8,59016,1026,9234,529-29,1238,590
FCF 3Y Avg15,77720,6289,9875,874-35,95815,777
CFO LTM23,29332,13419,82010,672-54,30123,293
CFO 3Y Avg30,10036,21021,67412,007-58,98030,100

Growth & Margins

BPCVXCOPEOGRRIXOMMedian
NameBP Chevron ConocoPh.EOG Reso.Roosevel.Exxon Mo. 
Rev Chg LTM-7.5%-4.7%2.4%-5.4%--3.3%-4.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-2.4%-2.9%-3.6%-5.1%--2.1%-2.9%
Rev Chg Q-1.4%-10.5%2.8%-11.2%--11.7%-10.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.4%-2.7%0.7%-2.9%--3.1%-2.7%
Op Mgn LTM6.9%8.4%22.0%34.2%-11.4%11.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg11.4%12.1%25.5%38.1%-13.4%13.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.8%-0.6%-1.6%-1.4%--0.2%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM12.5%17.1%34.3%47.0%-16.5%17.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.5%18.1%35.9%50.0%-17.1%18.1%
FCF/Rev LTM4.6%8.6%12.0%19.9%-8.8%8.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.5%10.2%16.3%24.3%-10.4%10.4%

Valuation

BPCVXCOPEOGRRIXOMMedian
NameBP Chevron ConocoPh.EOG Reso.Roosevel.Exxon Mo. 
Mkt Cap86.4263.2108.757.7-486.1108.7
P/S0.51.41.92.5-1.51.5
P/EBIT7.311.47.37.6-10.67.6
P/E153.419.211.810.1-15.715.7
P/CFO3.78.25.55.4-9.05.5
Total Yield5.0%9.7%11.9%13.6%-9.9%9.9%
Dividend Yield4.4%4.5%3.5%3.7%-3.5%3.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg16.4%7.4%8.0%8.7%-7.8%8.0%
D/E0.90.10.20.1-0.10.1
Net D/E0.50.10.2-0.0-0.10.1

Returns

BPCVXCOPEOGRRIXOMMedian
NameBP Chevron ConocoPh.EOG Reso.Roosevel.Exxon Mo. 
1M Rtn-3.4%-4.4%-7.8%-10.5%--2.6%-4.4%
3M Rtn5.1%3.2%-4.9%-8.9%-5.1%3.2%
6M Rtn20.6%13.6%-1.2%-2.1%-6.9%6.9%
12M Rtn12.4%5.8%-15.9%-13.5%--3.4%-3.4%
3Y Rtn28.3%6.3%-18.9%-3.2%-23.4%6.3%
1M Excs Rtn-4.6%-4.1%-8.0%-9.8%--2.0%-4.6%
3M Excs Rtn-1.4%-2.3%-9.9%-13.6%--0.8%-2.3%
6M Excs Rtn-5.5%-12.5%-27.3%-28.3%--19.2%-19.2%
12M Excs Rtn-0.1%-6.3%-29.7%-27.6%--18.0%-18.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-55.7%-76.5%-104.1%-88.5%--60.0%-76.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Customers & products160,215188,623130,09590,744 
Gas & low carbon energy50,29756,25530,84016,275 
Oil production & operations24,90433,19324,51917,234 
Other businesses and corporate2,6572,2991,7241,6661,788
Consolidation adjustment and Eliminations-27,943-38,978-29,439-19,975-28,789
Downstream    250,897
Upstream    54,501
Total210,130241,392157,739105,944278,397


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Oil production & operations10,72111,3708,044  
Customers & products5,3273,8753,291  
Gas & low carbon energy4,1735,2995,224  
Other businesses and corporate285714,424  
Consolidation adjustment and Eliminations000  
Total20,24920,60130,983  


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,430,356
Short Interest: % Change Since 9152025-8.5%
Average Daily Volume6,427,492
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.31
Basic Shares Quantity2,607,593,500
Short % of Basic Shares0.3%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202580520256-K 6/30/2025
331202542920256-K 3/31/2025
12312024306202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024102920246-K 9/30/2024
9302023103120236-K 9/30/2023
630202380120236-K 6/30/2023
12312022310202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022110120226-K 9/30/2022
630202280220226-K 6/30/2022
331202250320226-K 3/31/2022
9302021110220216-K 9/30/2021
630202180320216-K 6/30/2021
331202142720216-K 3/31/2021
630202080420206-K 6/30/2020
331202042820206-K 3/31/2020
12312019318202020-F 12/31/2019

Insider Activity

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