BP (BP)
Market Price (10/18/2025): $33.14 | Market Cap: $86.4 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas
BP (BP)
Market Price (10/18/2025): $33.14Market Cap: $86.4 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.0%, Dividend Yield is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 9.9% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 153x |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 23 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.6 Bil | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.4% | |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.0%, Dividend Yield is 4.4%, FCF Yield is 9.9% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 23 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.6 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -56% |
Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 153x |
Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.4% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
BP Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
BP Return | -41% | 36% | 39% | 6% | -12% | 16% | 23% |
Peers Return | -27% | 56% | 55% | -4% | 1% | -1% | 68% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
BP Win Rate | 25% | 75% | 58% | 67% | 42% | 78% | |
Peers Win Rate | 27% | 57% | 50% | 40% | 42% | 51% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
BP Max Drawdown | -58% | 0% | -0% | -3% | -16% | -10% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -0% | 0% | -14% | -6% | -9% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVX, COP, EOG, RRI, XOM. See BP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | BP | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -23.9% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 31.4% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -62.6% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 167.4% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 835 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -23.3% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 30.4% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -57.2% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 133.5% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
BP's stock fell -23.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -23.9% loss requires a 31.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Title | Topic | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
DASHBOARDS | |||
How Low Can BP Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
BP Dip Buy Analysis | |||
BP (BP) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
BP Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -11.8% in 2024 and 9.0% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
Should You Buy BP Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
BP (BP) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
BP (BP) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
BP (BP) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
BP (BP) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
BP (BP) Stock Has 48% Chance Of Rise In The Next One Month | |||
ARTICLES | |||
What’s Happening With BP Stock? | September 15th, 2025 | ||
What the Shell-BP Rumor Reveals About BP’s Future | June 26th, 2025 | ||
What’s New With BP Stock? | June 18th, 2025 | ||
BP Stock Down 14% This Year, What’s Next? | December 30th, 2024 | ||
Down 7% This Year, What’s Next For BP Stock? | September 26th, 2024 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | TDW | Tidewater | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.1% | -8.1% | -10.0% |
09302025 | OKE | ONEOK | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.9% | -7.9% | -7.9% |
08312025 | LEU | Centrus Energy | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 105.9% | 105.9% | -1.3% |
05312025 | KNTK | Kinetik | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -17.3% | -17.3% | -17.7% |
04302025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.5% | -5.5% | -11.4% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | TDW | Tidewater | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.1% | -8.1% | -10.0% |
09302025 | OKE | ONEOK | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.9% | -7.9% | -7.9% |
08312025 | LEU | Centrus Energy | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 105.9% | 105.9% | -1.3% |
05312025 | KNTK | Kinetik | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -17.3% | -17.3% | -17.7% |
04302025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.5% | -5.5% | -11.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for BP
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 106.22 |
Mkt Cap | 108.7 |
Rev LTM | 186,538 |
Op Inc LTM | 12,827 |
FCF LTM | 8,590 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 15,777 |
CFO LTM | 23,293 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 30,100 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | -4.7% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.9% |
Rev Chg Q | -10.5% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.7% |
Op Mgn LTM | 11.4% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 17.1% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 8.8% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 108.7 |
P/S | 1.5 |
P/EBIT | 7.6 |
P/E | 15.7 |
P/CFO | 5.5 |
Total Yield | 9.9% |
Dividend Yield | 3.7% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
D/E | 0.1 |
Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -4.4% |
3M Rtn | 3.2% |
6M Rtn | 6.9% |
12M Rtn | -3.4% |
3Y Rtn | 6.3% |
1M Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
3M Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
6M Excs Rtn | -19.2% |
12M Excs Rtn | -18.0% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -76.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Customers & products | 160,215 | 188,623 | 130,095 | 90,744 | |
Gas & low carbon energy | 50,297 | 56,255 | 30,840 | 16,275 | |
Oil production & operations | 24,904 | 33,193 | 24,519 | 17,234 | |
Other businesses and corporate | 2,657 | 2,299 | 1,724 | 1,666 | 1,788 |
Consolidation adjustment and Eliminations | -27,943 | -38,978 | -29,439 | -19,975 | -28,789 |
Downstream | 250,897 | ||||
Upstream | 54,501 | ||||
Total | 210,130 | 241,392 | 157,739 | 105,944 | 278,397 |
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oil production & operations | 10,721 | 11,370 | 8,044 | ||
Customers & products | 5,327 | 3,875 | 3,291 | ||
Gas & low carbon energy | 4,173 | 5,299 | 5,224 | ||
Other businesses and corporate | 28 | 57 | 14,424 | ||
Consolidation adjustment and Eliminations | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Total | 20,249 | 20,601 | 30,983 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8052025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 4292025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 3062025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 10292024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
9302023 | 10312023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 8012023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
12312022 | 3102023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 11012022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8022022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 5032022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
9302021 | 11022021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
6302021 | 8032021 | 6-K 6/30/2021 |
3312021 | 4272021 | 6-K 3/31/2021 |
6302020 | 8042020 | 6-K 6/30/2020 |
3312020 | 4282020 | 6-K 3/31/2020 |
12312019 | 3182020 | 20-F 12/31/2019 |
Industry Resources
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