BlackRock (BLK)
Market Price (9/19/2026): $1079.8199 | Market Cap: $167.5 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Financials | Industry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
BlackRock (BLK)
Market Price (9/19/2026): $1079.8199Market Cap: $167.5 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Asset Management & Custody Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, Dividend Yield is 2.2% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 3.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.5 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.9 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -7.2% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 42x Key risksBLK key risks include [1] antitrust lawsuits and regulatory actions targeting its ESG initiatives, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, Dividend Yield is 2.2% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 3.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.5 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Sustainable Finance, Digital & Alternative Assets, and AI in Financial Services. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -7.2% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 42x |
| Key risksBLK key risks include [1] antitrust lawsuits and regulatory actions targeting its ESG initiatives, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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BlackRock (BLK) stock has gained about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Exceeding Analyst Expectations.
BlackRock reported robust financial results for its fiscal second quarter of 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026, with earnings released on July 15, 2026. The company posted adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $13.91, significantly beating the consensus analyst estimate of $12.69 by $1.22, representing an approximately 10.8% positive surprise. Quarterly revenue also exceeded expectations, reaching $7.08 billion against an anticipated $6.73 billion, marking a substantial 30.6% year-over-year increase. Key drivers for this performance included a 31% year-over-year increase in overall revenue, driven by organic base fee growth and higher technology services revenue, and a 42% rise in operating income (39% as adjusted). Additionally, BlackRock announced an increase in its planned quarterly share repurchases to $550 million, up from $450 million in the previous quarter, indicating confidence in future performance.
2. Favorable Analyst Sentiment and Multiple Price Target Upgrades.
Following the strong earnings report and during the specified period, BlackRock received several analyst upgrades and positive revisions to price targets, contributing to investor confidence. On July 16, Morgan Stanley raised its price target for BlackRock from $1,383.00 to $1,488.00, maintaining an "overweight" rating. JPMorgan Chase & Co. also upgraded BlackRock's rating from "neutral" to "overweight" on July 16, increasing its price objective from $1,165.00 to $1,364.00. Earlier in the period, on June 23, BNP Paribas Exane lifted its price target from $1,300.00 to $1,350.00 with an "outperform" rating. This strong positive sentiment from a number of prominent financial institutions reflected an optimistic outlook on BlackRock's future growth prospects.
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BlackRock (BLK) stock has gained about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Exceeding Analyst Expectations.
BlackRock reported robust financial results for its fiscal second quarter of 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026, with earnings released on July 15, 2026. The company posted adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $13.91, significantly beating the consensus analyst estimate of $12.69 by $1.22, representing an approximately 10.8% positive surprise. Quarterly revenue also exceeded expectations, reaching $7.08 billion against an anticipated $6.73 billion, marking a substantial 30.6% year-over-year increase. Key drivers for this performance included a 31% year-over-year increase in overall revenue, driven by organic base fee growth and higher technology services revenue, and a 42% rise in operating income (39% as adjusted). Additionally, BlackRock announced an increase in its planned quarterly share repurchases to $550 million, up from $450 million in the previous quarter, indicating confidence in future performance.
2. Favorable Analyst Sentiment and Multiple Price Target Upgrades.
Following the strong earnings report and during the specified period, BlackRock received several analyst upgrades and positive revisions to price targets, contributing to investor confidence. On July 16, Morgan Stanley raised its price target for BlackRock from $1,383.00 to $1,488.00, maintaining an "overweight" rating. JPMorgan Chase & Co. also upgraded BlackRock's rating from "neutral" to "overweight" on July 16, increasing its price objective from $1,165.00 to $1,364.00. Earlier in the period, on June 23, BNP Paribas Exane lifted its price target from $1,300.00 to $1,350.00 with an "outperform" rating. This strong positive sentiment from a number of prominent financial institutions reflected an optimistic outlook on BlackRock's future growth prospects.
3. Robust Asset Under Management (AUM) Growth and Strategic Positioning in High-Growth Sectors.
BlackRock's Assets Under Management reached $15.3 trillion, bolstered by $868 billion in net inflows over the last twelve months, reflecting a 10% organic base fee growth. The fiscal Q2 2026 saw record net inflows of $192 billion, driven broadly across ETFs, private markets, active fixed income, and systematic equity strategies. This AUM growth was further supported by favorable market performance, particularly strong gains in U.S. equities, notably in AI-related technology stocks. BlackRock's strategic focus on areas like AI and semiconductors, as highlighted in its Autumn Investment Directions report, indicates its alignment with high-growth sectors, with expectations for semiconductor stocks in the S&P 500 to grow earnings by 151% year-on-year in the second quarter. The firm's continuous expansion in technology services, especially through Aladdin, which saw a 13% year-over-year revenue growth, further enhances its market position and potential for sustained inflows.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.3% change in BLK stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1035.70 | 1069.78 | 3.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,638 | 27,299 | 6.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.4% | 24.1% | -1.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.7 | 25.2 | -1.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 155 | 155 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.3% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLK | 3.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.9% | 45.8% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.3% | 64.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.3% change in BLK stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1046.05 | 1069.78 | 2.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24,216 | 27,299 | 12.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.9% | 24.1% | 5.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.2 | 25.2 | -13.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 155 | 155 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLK | 2.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.6% | 57.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | 9.2% | 66.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.6% change in BLK stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1098.37 | 1069.78 | -2.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 21,573 | 27,299 | 26.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.7% | 24.1% | -18.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.6 | 25.2 | -5.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 155 | 155 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.6% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLK | -2.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.4% | 55.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 4.7% | 66.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 64.4% change in BLK stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 57.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 650.53 | 1069.78 | 64.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 17,354 | 27,299 | 57.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.9% | 24.1% | -19.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.8 | 25.2 | 34.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 150 | 155 | -3.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 64.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLK | 64.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.6% | 67.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | 69.8% | 72.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BLK Return | 29% | -20% | 18% | 29% | 7% | 0% | 67% |
| Peers Return | 39% | -13% | 17% | 44% | 46% | 23% | 263% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BLK Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 50% | 83% | 58% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 43% | 48% | 67% | 75% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BLK Max Drawdown | -13% | -41% | -21% | -11% | -24% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -37% | -24% | -10% | -26% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: STT, JPM, MS, GS, BNY. See BLK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -19.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -14.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -40.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 653 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 105 days |
In The Past
BlackRock's stock fell -16.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | BLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -40.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 653 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -23.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.8% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 173 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -58.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 140.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 211 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
BlackRock's stock fell -16.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About BlackRock (BLK)
BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) is a leading global investment management firm that helps a diverse array of clients manage and grow their financial assets. The company provides comprehensive investment and risk management services, aiming to meet the unique financial objectives of its investors through strategic allocation and active management across various global markets.
The firm's main products and services include managing custom client-focused portfolios across equities, fixed income, and balanced strategies. BlackRock is also a major provider of a wide range of investment vehicles, such as open-end and closed-end mutual funds, offshore funds, hedge funds, and alternative investment products. A cornerstone of its offerings is an extensive lineup of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) covering virtually every asset class, from equities and fixed income to commodities and multi-asset strategies. Beyond direct asset management, BlackRock also offers global risk management and advisory services.
BlackRock primarily serves a broad spectrum of institutional investors, including large corporate, public, and union pension plans, insurance companies, endowments, foundations, sovereign wealth funds, and governments. It also provides services to third-party mutual funds, corporations, banks, and individual investors, often through financial intermediaries. The firm invests globally across public equity, fixed income, real estate, currency, commodity, and alternative markets, utilizing both fundamental and quantitative analysis to guide its investment decisions.
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Here are a few analogies to describe BlackRock (BLK):
- The Amazon of investment management.
- A super-sized Fidelity or Vanguard.
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- Investment Management: BlackRock provides comprehensive investment management services, crafting tailored portfolios for institutional, intermediary, and individual clients across various asset classes.
- Mutual Funds: The firm offers a diverse range of mutual funds, including open-end and closed-end structures, focusing on equities, fixed income, balanced strategies, and real estate.
- Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs): BlackRock launches and manages various ETFs, covering equities, fixed income, balanced portfolios, currencies, commodities, and multi-asset strategies.
- Alternative Investment Vehicles: The company provides alternative investment options such as structured funds and hedge funds, catering to specialized investment strategies.
- Risk Management and Advisory Services: BlackRock delivers global risk management and advisory services to help clients identify, assess, and mitigate financial risks.
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BlackRock (BLK) primarily provides its services to a wide array of institutional and intermediary investors, as well as individual investors. Based on the company description, its major customers are primarily other companies and large organizations. The specific names of customer companies are not provided; instead, categories of customers are listed. Therefore, the major customer categories are:
- Pension Plans: This includes corporate, public, union, and industry pension plans.
- Financial Institutions: Such as insurance companies, third-party mutual funds, banks, and sovereign wealth funds.
- Governmental & Non-Profit Entities: Including endowments, public institutions, governments, foundations, charities, corporations, and official institutions.
As the background description provides categories of customers rather than specific company names, no stock symbols can be provided for these general categories.
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- FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS)
- S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)
- MSCI Inc. (MSCI)
- Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
- Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
- London Stock Exchange Group plc (LSEG)
- The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK)
- State Street Corp. (STT)
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
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Larry Fink, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Larry Fink co-founded BlackRock in 1988 with seven partners. Prior to establishing BlackRock, he was a member of the management committee and a managing director at The First Boston Corporation, where he co-headed the Taxable Fixed Income Division. During his tenure at First Boston, his department experienced a significant loss due to an incorrect interest rate prediction, an experience that influenced his decision to build a company with robust risk management. BlackRock was initially formed under the corporate umbrella of The Blackstone Group, a private equity firm, before becoming an independent company.
Martin Small, Chief Financial Officer and Global Head of Corporate Strategy
Martin Small joined BlackRock in 2006 as a member of the Legal & Compliance Department. He assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer in 2023. Before becoming CFO, he served as Head of BlackRock's U.S. Wealth Advisory business from 2018 to 2022. His previous roles include Head of U.S. and Canada iShares from 2014 to 2018, and he helped establish and served in leadership roles for the firm's Financial Markets Advisory (FMA) group. Prior to joining BlackRock, Mr. Small was a corporate lawyer with Davis Polk & Wardwell in New York.
Rob Kapito, President
Robert S. Kapito is a co-founder of BlackRock and has served as its President since 2007. He co-founded BlackRock in 1988 alongside Laurence D. Fink and others, initially focusing on fixed-income assets and risk management. Before co-founding BlackRock, Mr. Kapito was a Vice President in the Mortgage Products Group at The First Boston Corporation, where he worked with Larry Fink, pioneering the mortgage-backed security market.
Philipp Hildebrand, Vice Chairman
Philipp Hildebrand joined BlackRock as Vice Chairman in 2012. In this role, he is responsible for strengthening global client and government relationships and driving business growth. Prior to joining BlackRock, he served as Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) from 2010 to 2012. During his time at SNB, he was also a Director of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the Swiss Governor of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and a member of the Financial Stability Board (FSB). Earlier in his career, he was Chief Investment Officer of a Swiss private bank and a partner at Moore Capital Management in London.
Susan Wagner, Co-founder, Director, and Retired Vice Chairman
Susan Wagner is one of the co-founders of BlackRock, which she helped establish in 1988. She served as vice chairman and chief operating officer, orchestrating major mergers and acquisitions for the firm, including those with Merrill Lynch Investment Management and Barclays Global Investors. Prior to co-founding BlackRock, Ms. Wagner was a vice president in the Mortgage Finance Group at Lehman Brothers. She retired from executive roles at BlackRock in 2012 but continues to serve on its board of directors.
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- Liquidity and Valuation Concerns in Private Credit and Alternative Assets: BlackRock faces significant risk from liquidity and valuation concerns within its private credit and alternative investment offerings. Recent events, such as the firm capping withdrawals from its HPS Corporate Lending Fund due to redemption requests exceeding limits, highlight potential issues with liquidity and transparency in these less-liquid assets. This situation can lead to increased investor skepticism, reputational damage, and potential regulatory scrutiny across the sector.
- Regulatory and Antitrust Risks Related to ESG Initiatives: BlackRock is exposed to heightened regulatory and antitrust risks, particularly concerning its environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives. The company, alongside other major institutional investors, has been subject to antitrust lawsuits alleging collusion to reduce coal production through ESG commitments. This scrutiny from federal and state antitrust enforcers could result in significant legal liabilities and impact BlackRock's ability to pursue sustainability objectives, especially when involving collaboration with competing investment companies.
- Intense Competition and Evolving Market Dynamics: BlackRock operates in a fiercely competitive global asset management sector. The firm faces pressure from established rivals like The Vanguard Group and State Street Global Advisors, as well as from innovative fintech startups. Key competitive dynamics include adapting to evolving client preferences, such as the growing demand for sustainable investing, and navigating shifts in the investment landscape, including the ongoing importance of data analytics and fee competitiveness. Failure to adapt to technological advancements, regulatory changes, and global economic shifts could impact its market position, assets under management (AUM), revenue, and earnings.
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The rise of direct indexing solutions presents a clear emerging threat. Direct indexing allows investors to directly own the individual securities of an index, offering benefits such as greater tax efficiency and customized portfolio management. This approach directly competes with BlackRock's extensive suite of index-tracking exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds. If direct indexing becomes more widespread and accessible across various investor segments, it could significantly erode demand for BlackRock's core index-based product offerings.
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BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) operates within substantial addressable markets across its diverse range of investment products and services.
The estimated addressable markets for BlackRock's main products and services are as follows:
- Global Asset Management Market (Assets Under Management - AUM): The global asset management industry's total assets under management reached approximately $139.9 trillion at the end of 2024. Another estimate placed the global asset management industry at a record-breaking $128 trillion in AUM in 2024.
- U.S. Asset Management Market (Assets Under Management - AUM): The United States asset management market was valued at approximately $52.08 trillion in 2024 and is expected to reach $134.67 trillion by 2030. Another projection indicates the U.S. asset management market size is projected at $70.97 trillion in 2026, reaching $125.98 trillion by 2031.
- Global Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Market (Assets Under Management - AUM): The global ETF market concluded 2025 with approximately $19.8 trillion in total assets invested. As of September 2025, global ETF assets reached a record high of $18.81 trillion.
- U.S. Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Market (Assets Under Management - AUM): The U.S. ETF market totaled $13.4 trillion in assets as of January 2026. In September 2025, the U.S. ETF industry's assets surpassed $12.70 trillion.
- Global Mutual Funds Market (Assets Under Management - AUM): Worldwide open-end mutual fund assets were $69.0 trillion at the end of 2023. The global mutual fund assets market was approximately $67.48 trillion in 2022 and is predicted to grow to around $145.24 trillion by 2030.
- U.S. Mutual Funds Market (Assets Under Management - AUM): The U.S. mutual funds market was valued at $34.58 trillion in 2024 and is expected to reach $43.25 trillion by 2030. At the end of 2023, U.S. mutual fund assets were $38.8 trillion. The U.S. mutual fund market is expected to hold $31.68 trillion in assets in 2026 and is projected to climb to $40.98 trillion by 2031.
- Global Alternative Investments Market (Assets Under Management - AUM): The global alternative investments market is projected to exceed $33 trillion in 2025. The global alternatives market's assets under management are expected to reach $32 trillion by 2030. The global alternative industry reached $16.8 trillion at the end of 2023 and is estimated to exceed $30 trillion by 2030.
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BlackRock (BLK) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years:
- Expansion into Private Markets: BlackRock is strategically expanding its presence in private markets, including infrastructure and private credit, through significant acquisitions such as Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) and HPS Investment Partners. The firm aims for its private markets and technology businesses to contribute 30% or more of its total revenue by 2030, a substantial increase from 15% in 2024. BlackRock is targeting $400 billion in gross private markets fundraising from 2025 to 2030. This expansion capitalizes on higher fees generated by private assets compared to traditional public market offerings.
- Growth in Technology Services and AI: The proprietary Aladdin platform remains central to BlackRock's operations, significantly contributing to technology services and subscription revenue. The company is also actively investing in AI infrastructure and developing new AI-themed investment products, such as thematic exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on AI, which are expected to drive sustained expansion. Technology services and subscription revenue increased by 16% year-over-year in Q1 2025.
- Continued Assets Under Management (AUM) Growth, particularly through iShares ETFs: BlackRock continues to experience robust organic AUM growth, driven by substantial net inflows into its diverse product offerings, especially iShares ETFs. For example, iShares ETFs saw record net inflows of $85 billion in Q2 2025 and $527 billion in Q4 2025. The company anticipates an annual organic AUM growth rate of 3.4% for 2025, aligning with its long-term targets.
- Expansion into Transition Investing: BlackRock is reorienting its sustainability approach towards "transition investing," focusing on companies actively engaged in decarbonization and adapting to climate change. This strategic pivot aligns with evolving investor preferences and regulatory landscapes, positioning the firm to capture opportunities in this growing investment theme.
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Share Repurchases
- BlackRock's annual share buybacks were $1.93 billion in 2024.
- As of December 31, 2025, BlackRock's share buybacks totaled $1.95 billion.
- In the first and second quarters of 2025, share buybacks were $657 million and $396 million, respectively.
Share Issuance
- BlackRock's shares outstanding increased to 0.161 billion in 2025, a 6.13% increase from 2024.
- Shares outstanding in 2024 were 0.152 billion, a 0.6% increase from 2023.
Outbound Investments
- BlackRock made 43 acquisitions in total, with peak activity in 2024 (7 acquisitions) and 2022 (7 acquisitions).
- Significant acquisitions include Viridium Gruppe for $3.82 billion in March 2025, HPS Investment Partners for $12 billion in December 2024, and Global Infrastructure Partners for $12.5 billion in January 2024.
- Over the last five years (2020–2025), BlackRock averaged 5 acquisitions per year.
Capital Expenditures
- BlackRock's capital expenditures peaked at $533 million in December 2022.
- Capital expenditures decreased to $344 million in 2023 and further to $255 million in 2024.
- For the latest twelve months ending December 31, 2025, BlackRock did not report meaningful capital expenditures, with the most recent quarter showing -$130 million.
Peer Outperformance in Asset Management & Custody Banks
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLK | BlackRock | 16.6% | 25.2x | -3.9% | 66.0% | 37.8% | — |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 19.0% | 31.9x | 82.3% | 351.8% | 246.0% | +208pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinsurance | 6 | 23.6% | 68.8% | 129.8% | SPNT 166% · RGA 145% · RNR 136% |
| Investment Banking & Brokerage | 13 | -0.4% | 99.9% | 114.4% | IBKR 505% · SNEX 246% · HOOD 183% |
| Diversified Banks | 12 | 27.9% | 126.2% | 112.2% | CM 154% · JPM 151% · RY 143% |
| Life & Health Insurance | 20 | 10.2% | 54.1% | 102.9% | JXN 562% · UNM 356% · FG 207% |
| Multi-Sector Holdings | 4 | 7.1% | 48.2% | 82.5% | JONE 361% · BRK-B 84% · VOYA 81% |
| Property & Casualty Insurance | 42 | 9.6% | 65.5% | 65.4% | ASIC 2760900% · HRTG 471% · UVE 319% |
| Regional Banks | 265 | 22.5% | 89.7% | 65.0% | ESQ 369% · VBNK 335% · GCBC 329% |
| Multi-line Insurance | 9 | 11.0% | 68.1% | 61.6% | GNW 186% · L 106% · SLF 98% |
| Financial Exchanges & Data | 15 | -2.0% | 12.3% | 32.5% | VIRT 184% · CBOE 136% · CME 80% |
| Diversified Financial Services | 4 | -8.8% | 18.9% | 28.3% | FRHC 167% · EQH 110% · TMS -54% |
| Consumer Finance | 30 | -0.1% | 84.0% | 25.8% | ENVA 445% · EZPW 333% · FCFS 163% |
| Insurance Brokers | 16 | -15.4% | -7.0% | 19.8% | LIFE 249% · ARX 87% · AJG 70% |
| Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance | 14 | -50.7% | 29.9% | 10.9% | FNMA 448% · FMCC 420% · ACT 204% |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks ← | 84 | -12.4% | 13.6% | 10.0% | WT 318% · SII 278% · VCTR 255% |
| Specialized Finance | 3 | 14.7% | 35.5% | -3.0% | EFC 27% · CACC -3% · HASI -18% |
| Mortgage REITs | 33 | -13.9% | 3.4% | -17.0% | NREF 51% · RITM 41% · DX 34% |
| Transaction & Payment Processing Services | 15 | -1.4% | -9.4% | -44.8% | V 72% · MA 70% · CPAY 54% |
| Diversified Capital Markets | 20 | -34.9% | 16.8% | -55.4% | OPY 190% · LPLA 129% · GOLD 90% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 276.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 224.3 |
| Rev LTM | 46,751 |
| Op Inc LTM | 9,006 |
| FCF LTM | -8,495 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -10,820 |
| CFO LTM | -6,056 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -8,626 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 22.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 17.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 33.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 35.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -3.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -25.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -8.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -32.7% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | 8,210 | 7,290 | 6,418 | 7,203 | 8,000 |
| Fixed income | 3,550 | 3,319 | 3,127 | 3,495 | 3,863 |
| Alternatives | 3,019 | 1,764 | 1,461 | 1,590 | 1,513 |
| Technology services and subscription revenue | 1,981 | 1,603 | 1,485 | 1,364 | 1,281 |
| Investment Advisory Performance Fees | 1,424 | 1,207 | 554 | 514 | 1,143 |
| Distribution fees | 1,355 | 1,273 | 1,262 | 1,381 | 1,521 |
| Active multi-asset | 1,332 | 1,248 | 1,172 | 1,299 | 1,414 |
| Non-exchange-traded fund (ETF) index | 1,321 | 1,183 | 1,127 | ||
| Cash management | 1,245 | 1,049 | 909 | 864 | 470 |
| Digital assets, commodities and multi-asset exchange-traded fund (ETFs) | 502 | 247 | 185 | ||
| Advisory and other revenue | 277 | 224 | 159 | 163 | 169 |
| Total | 24,216 | 20,407 | 17,859 | 17,873 | 19,374 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $1,069.78 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 166.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/01/1999 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $1,101.63 | $1,050.27 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -2.9% | 1.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.7% | 27.3% |
| Downside Capture | 147.68 | 139.35 |
| Upside Capture | 145.09 | 110.30 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 48.4% | 55.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.04 | 1.20 | 0.85 | 1.18 | 1.16 | 1.08 |
| Up Beta | 0.81 | 0.20 | 0.06 | 0.91 | 0.77 | 1.00 |
| Down Beta | 1.19 | 1.46 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.41 | 1.13 |
| Up Capture | 137% | 214% | 132% | 124% | 114% | 132% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 32 | 64 | 125 | 398 |
| Down Capture | 76% | 93% | 85% | 123% | 120% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 20 | 32 | 63 | 126 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BLK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLK | -3.5% | 27.3% | -0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 4.5% | 14.6% | 0.08 | 66.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.9% | 12.9% | 0.94 | 55.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 29.3% | 0.60 | 19.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.9% | 20.6% | 1.76 | -24.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 13.6% | 0.10 | 39.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -34.5% | 43.9% | -0.84 | 32.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BLK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLK | 5.7% | 27.1% | 0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.1% | 18.4% | 0.41 | 76.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 74.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.83 | 12.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.3% | 19.5% | 0.45 | 7.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.8% | -0.05 | 61.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.2% | 52.5% | 0.39 | 33.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BLK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLK | 13.9% | 27.8% | 0.50 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.9% | 22.1% | 0.53 | 77.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 78.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 8.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 20.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 60.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.7% | 66.1% | 1.02 | 20.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/17/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/15/2026 | 6.6% | 1.2% | 13.2% |
| 4/14/2026 | 3.0% | 2.4% | 6.7% |
| 1/15/2026 | 5.9% | 4.4% | -1.9% |
| 10/14/2025 | 3.4% | 0.4% | -6.0% |
| 7/15/2025 | -5.9% | -1.7% | 4.3% |
| 4/11/2025 | 2.3% | 2.0% | 11.6% |
| 1/15/2025 | 5.2% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| 10/11/2024 | 3.6% | 4.9% | 8.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 2.4% | 7.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.9% | -1.7% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 6.6% | 4.9% | 13.2% |
| Max Negative | -5.9% | -1.7% | -6.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/15/2026 | 6.6% | 1.2% | 13.2% |
| 4/14/2026 | 3.0% | 2.4% | 6.7% |
| 1/15/2026 | 5.9% | 4.4% | -1.9% |
| 10/14/2025 | 3.4% | 0.4% | -6.0% |
| 7/15/2025 | -5.9% | -1.7% | 4.3% |
| 4/11/2025 | 2.3% | 2.0% | 11.6% |
| 1/15/2025 | 5.2% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| 10/11/2024 | 3.6% | 4.9% | 8.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 2.4% | 7.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.9% | -1.7% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 6.6% | 4.9% | 13.2% |
| Max Negative | -5.9% | -1.7% | -6.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/28/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/22/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fink, Laurence | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7172026 | 1080.57 | 1,905 | 2,058,486 | 241,865,064 | Form |
| 2 | Meade, Christopher J | General Counsel and CLO | Direct | Sell | 7172026 | 1102.09 | 18,095 | 19,942,340 | 15,494,300 | Form |
| 3 | Fink, Laurence | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 4292026 | 1050.55 | 33,900 | 35,613,717 | 242,169,071 | Form |
| 4 | Kapito, Robert | President | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 1056.60 | 8,739 | 9,233,596 | 222,082,190 | Form |
| 5 | Kushel, J. Richard | Senior Managing Director | The Kushel Family 2018 Trust | Sell | 2262026 | 1084.91 | 385 | 417,690 | 3,618,175 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fink, Laurence | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7172026 | 1080.57 | 1,905 | 2,058,486 | 241,865,064 | Form |
| 2 | Meade, Christopher J | General Counsel and CLO | Direct | Sell | 7172026 | 1102.09 | 18,095 | 19,942,340 | 15,494,300 | Form |
| 3 | Fink, Laurence | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 4292026 | 1050.55 | 33,900 | 35,613,717 | 242,169,071 | Form |
| 4 | Kapito, Robert | President | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 1056.60 | 8,739 | 9,233,596 | 222,082,190 | Form |
| 5 | Kushel, J. Richard | Senior Managing Director | The Kushel Family 2018 Trust | Sell | 2262026 | 1084.91 | 385 | 417,690 | 3,618,175 | Form |
| 6 | Kushel, J. Richard | Senior Managing Director | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 1083.05 | 2,000 | 2,166,100 | 67,127,807 | Form |
| 7 | Cohen, Stephen | Senior Managing Director | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 1069.56 | 225 | 240,651 | 6,054,779 | Form |
| 8 | Goldstein, Robert L | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 1084.22 | 5,293 | 5,738,790 | 50,075,292 | Form |
| 9 | Goldstein, Robert L | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 1087.29 | 54,190 | 58,920,187 | 55,971,938 | Form |
| 10 | Kushel, J. Richard | Senior Managing Director | Direct | Sell | 1232026 | 1125.00 | 20,000 | 22,500,000 | 69,631,132 | Form |
| 11 | Small, Martin | CFO & Senior Managing Director | Direct | Sell | 1212026 | 1171.14 | 27,047 | 31,675,813 | 12,364,207 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 19, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parkside Financial Bank & Trust | $237.0 Mil | 18.2% | 4119 | Hold | 13F |
| ValueAct Holdings, L.P. | $525.2 Mil | 9.2% | 18 | TRIM -21.4% | 13F |
| Unisphere Establishment | $876.8 Mil | 7.4% | 50 | ADD +10.5% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $12.9 Mil | 3.8% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Spinecap SAS | $9.9 Mil | 3.6% | 15 | ADD +10.1% | 13F |
| Cander Asset Management LP | $18.9 Mil | 3.4% | 43 | TRIM -12.3% | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $21.4 Mil | 1.0% | 41 | New | 13F |
| National Mutual Insurance Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives | $28.3 Mil | 0.2% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unisphere Establishment | $876.8 Mil | 7.4% | 50 | ADD +10.5% | 13F |
| ValueAct Holdings, L.P. | $525.2 Mil | 9.2% | 18 | TRIM -21.4% | 13F |
| Parkside Financial Bank & Trust | $237.0 Mil | 18.2% | 4119 | Hold | 13F |
| National Mutual Insurance Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives | $28.3 Mil | 0.2% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $21.4 Mil | 1.0% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Cander Asset Management LP | $18.9 Mil | 3.4% | 43 | TRIM -12.3% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $12.9 Mil | 3.8% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Spinecap SAS | $9.9 Mil | 3.6% | 15 | ADD +10.1% | 13F |
BLK Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
BlackRock's strategic shift to private markets and technology is driving a powerful business inflection. Accelerating net inflows of $192 billion in Q2 2026, coupled with a 260 basis point expansion in recurring-fee operating margin, confirm the model is working. With organic base fee growth at a sustainable 8%, the company is successfully capturing higher-quality earnings.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Service/Subscription Hybrid(AUM * Blended Fee Rate) + Technology Subscription Fees + Performance Fees Operating leverage from scale and a strategic mix shift towards higher-margin private markets and technology services revenue.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Yes. Recent acquisitions are driving a successful mix shift, evidenced by accelerating, higher-fee net inflows and significant margin expansion, creating a more profitable and durable earnings stream.
- Q2 net inflows accelerated to $192 billion, contributing to a record first half.
- Organic base fee growth was 8%, marking two full years above company targets.
- Technology ACV increased 15% year-over-year, ahead of long-term guidance.
- Adjusted operating margin on recurring fees expanded 260 basis points year-over-year.
- Management raised its quarterly share repurchase guidance to at least $550 million.
PRIMARY RISK
The cost of the strategic pivot could overwhelm the benefits. Trailing operating expenses grew 33.7%, outpacing 26.5% revenue growth. Trailing-twelve-month operating cash flow of $3.9 billion converted only 0.6 of the $6.6 billion in net income, suggesting earnings quality is weak and acquisition integration is costly.
- Trailing operating margin fell to 33% from 35.6% a year earlier.
- Trailing operating expenses grew 33.7% year-over-year, outpacing revenue growth.
- The cash-conversion ratio was low at 0.6 for the trailing twelve months.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Organic Base Fee Growth | 8% in Q2 2026 - Stable | After a peak of 12% in Q4 2025, organic base fee growth has stabilized at a strong 8% for two consecutive quarters. Management characterized this level as sustainable and noted it represents two full years of performance above the company's target. |
| Total Net Inflows | $192 billion in Q2 2026 - Accelerating | Quarterly net inflows have been strong but volatile, with an exceptionally high $342 billion in Q4 2025 followed by a solid Q1 and an accelerating Q2. Management noted that the first six months of 2026 represented the company's strongest first half on record. |
| Assets Under Management (AUM) | $15.3 trillion (June 30, 2026) | The total market value of assets the company manages, which is the primary base for its advisory and administration fee revenue. Growth in AUM from market appreciation and net inflows directly drives top-line growth. |
| Technology Services Annual Contract Value (ACV) Growth | 15% year-over-year (Q2 2026) | Market rewards The company has a long-term target of low to mid-teens ACV growth.. Represents the forward-looking annualized value of recurring subscription fees for technology services. It is a key indicator of the growth and future revenue visibility of the high-margin Aladdin platform and other tech offerings. |
Margin Inflection vs. Lagging Cash Quality
BULL VIEW
The 260 basis point Q2 margin expansion is the leading indicator. It proves the private markets strategy is working, and the lagging cash conversion is temporary noise from acquisition accounting and higher incentive pay tied to success.
CORE TENSION
Can Q2's 260 bps margin expansion prove durable enough to overcome concerns from the weak 0.6 cash conversion ratio?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The market's strong positive reaction to Q2 results suggests it views the margin inflection as the primary signal, validating the strategic pivot.
BEAR VIEW
The poor cash conversion ratio of 0.6 is a structural red flag. It suggests the high cost of acquisitions is creating low-quality earnings, and the recent margin improvement is not sustainable or translating into real cash.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
remainder of 2026 | Updated Tax Rate Guidance Watch: Management continues to project a tax run rate of 25% for the rest of the year. |
10/13/2026 | Peer Read-Across on Flows Watch: Weak AUM flows, fee rate pressure, or negative outlooks from peers, signaling industry-wide headwinds for asset managers. |
10/14/2026 | Peer Asset Manager Earnings Watch: Peers State Street (STT) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are scheduled to report earnings. |
October 15, 2026 November 13, 2026 December 11, 2026 | Closed-End Fund Distributions Watch: Distributions for certain BlackRock municipal closed-end funds are scheduled for October, November, and December. |
October 2026 | SEC Form PF Compliance Watch: Compliance deadline for new rules and amendments to Form PF for registered investment advisers. |
1/11/2027 | Peer Custody Bank Earnings Watch: Peer Bank of New York Mellon (BNY) is scheduled to report earnings. |
1/13/2027 | Persistent Margin Pressure Watch: Continued negative operating leverage and margin compression in the next earnings report, indicating integration costs are not being controlled. |
1/13/2027 | Company Earnings Report Watch: BlackRock is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
No set date | Private Credit Market Dislocation Watch: A significant credit event or fund failure in the broader private credit market, which could sour sentiment and fundraising. |
No set date | Adverse Legal Developments Watch: A formal class action filing, expansion of the investigation, or regulatory inquiry related to the allegations. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-09-05 | Analyst Reaffirms Buy Rating Details: A September 5, 2026 analyst note reiterated a buy rating with a new price target of $1,256, citing strategic diversification into private markets and technology. | -2.2% $1120.40 -> $1095.37 |
2026-08-06 | TCPC Portfolio Sale Details: BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. announced a $523 million portfolio sale transaction on August 6, 2026, to reduce leverage and enhance investment capacity. | +0.2% $1127.79 -> $1130.59 |
2026-07-18 | Mutual Fund Investigation Announced Details: On July 18, 2026, a law firm announced an investigation of potential securities claims on behalf of investors in BlackRock, Inc. mutual funds. | -3.0% $1081.50 -> $1048.73 |
2026-07-15 | Q2 Earnings Beat Market Details: Following the July 15, 2026 earnings call, the stock had a two-day reaction of 6.0% versus 0.0% for the S&P 500, indicating a strong positive surprise. | +6.0% $1020.20 -> $1081.50 |
2026-05-20 | Quarterly Dividend Declared Details: On May 20, 2026, the Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $5.73 per share, payable on June 23, 2026. | +2.6% $1025.23 -> $1052.39 |
2026-04-14 | Q1 Earnings Reported Details: The company reported Q1 2026 earnings on April 14, 2026. The two-day stock reaction was 2.0%, in line with the S&P 500's 2.0% move. | +2.4% $1012.72 -> $1037.40 |
2026-03-16 | TCPC Securities Class Action Details: A law firm reminded investors of the April 6, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline for a class action against BlackRock TCP Capital Corp. (TCPC) for the period between November 6, 2024, and January 23, 2026. | +5.1% $914.24 -> $960.64 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: BLK trades at roughly 27% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (2.0x the market), around the 51st percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
STT - State Street
Focused Custody & ManagementState Street offers a more focused play on asset servicing and custody banking, which can provide more stable, less market-sensitive revenue streams compared to BlackRock's primary reliance on AUM-based fees.
JPM - JPMorgan Chase
Diversified Financial SupermarketJPMorgan provides exposure to asset management within a much larger, diversified universal bank, offering insulation from pure-play asset manager risks through its consumer and investment banking arms.
BlackRock is an asset-gathering and technology platform monetizing the global expansion of capital markets through unmatched scale, a strategic shift to higher-margin private markets, and a sticky, high-growth technology business.
BlackRock is evolving beyond a traditional asset manager into a 'whole portfolio' solutions provider, integrating public and private markets with its proprietary Aladdin technology. This model allows it to capture growth from structural trends like the rise of ETFs, increasing allocations to alternatives like infrastructure and private credit, and the financial industry's need for sophisticated risk management. Recent major acquisitions in private markets (GIP, HPS) and data (Preqin) are accelerating this transformation, driving higher-quality organic growth and margin expansion.
Sustained net inflows into higher-fee products (private markets, active ETFs, systematic), continued double-digit technology ACV growth, and ongoing margin expansion on recurring fee-related earnings.
A reversal to sustained net outflows, significant fee compression in the core iShares business that outpaces the mix shift to alternatives, or a slowdown in Aladdin's growth momentum.
Short-term AUM fluctuations due to market volatility; minor legal investigations such as the one mentioned in a July 2026 press report unless they result in material financial or reputational damage.
Repricing Catalyst
Continued successful integration of the GIP, HPS, and Preqin acquisitions, leading to accelerated growth in private markets and technology, which in turn drives margin expansion and increased capital returns as guided in the July 2026 earnings call.
Investment Advisory Performance Fees
$1.6B TTM (6% of Total)What It Is
These are incentive-based fees earned from certain actively managed funds and separate accounts for achieving investment returns that exceed a contractual threshold, often relative to a benchmark.
Who Pays & How
Clients with performance-fee arrangements pay these fees as a reward for generating alpha (excess returns). This aligns the firm's compensation with investment success for the client.
Competition
Technology Services and Subscription Revenue
$2.1B TTM (8% of Total)What It Is
This segment provides the Aladdin investment and risk management platform, along with other technology solutions like eFront and Preqin, to a broad base of institutional investors, asset managers, and wealth management clients.
Who Pays & How
Financial institutions pay subscription fees to use BlackRock's technology for end-to-end investment and risk management, seeking to improve operational efficiency, gain portfolio transparency (especially across public and private assets), and enhance risk analytics.
Competition
Distribution Fees
$1.4B TTM (6% of Total)What It Is
Fees earned for distributing investment products and providing support services to investment portfolios. These fees are often collected and then passed through to third-party client intermediaries.
Who Pays & How
These fees are associated with the distribution and servicing of client investments in certain products, where third-party intermediaries own the relationship with the end client.
Competition
BlackRock — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Asset Management & Custody Banks Resources |
| Pensions & Investments |
| Institutional Investor |
| Ignites |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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