BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ)
Market Price (12/9/2025): $91.59 | Market Cap: $12.0 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ)
Market Price (12/9/2025): $91.59Market Cap: $12.0 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.1%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -9.1%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BJ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the movement of BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 9, 2025:
1. BJ's reported softer-than-expected comparable club sales growth for Q3 2025.
While the company exceeded adjusted earnings per share (EPS) expectations with $1.16, its comparable club sales, excluding gasoline, increased by only 1.8%, falling short of analyst estimates of approximately 2.4% and lagging behind competitors.
2. The company lowered its full-year comparable sales guidance.
Following the Q3 2025 results, BJ's narrowed its guidance for full-year merchandise comparable sales growth to 2-3%, a slight reduction from its previous outlook of 2-3.5%. This adjustment in top-line expectations likely contributed to investor caution.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BJ Return | 64% | 80% | -1% | 1% | 34% | 2% | 302% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 41% | -12% | 16% | 27% | -1% | 120% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BJ Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 67% | 47% | 63% | 55% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BJ Max Drawdown | -15% | -0% | -22% | -8% | -3% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -11% | -8% | -21% | -8% | -8% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: COST, WMT, TGT, KR, ACI. See BJ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/8/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BJ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -23.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 548 days | 120 days |
Compare to WMT, COST, TGT, DG, DLTR
In The Past
BJ's Wholesale Club's stock fell -27.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -27.3% loss requires a 37.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BJ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.9% | -2.9% | -3.7% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.4% | 4.4% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.9% | -2.9% | -3.7% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.4% | 4.4% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for BJ's Wholesale Club
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 92.27 |
| Mkt Cap | 42.1 |
| Rev LTM | 126,320 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,674 |
| FCF LTM | 2,578 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,775 |
| CFO LTM | 6,202 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,792 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 42.1 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 13.4 |
| P/E | 19.1 |
| P/CFO | 10.5 |
| Total Yield | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 38.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -33.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/21/2025 | 1.1% | -2.2% | |
| 8/22/2025 | -8.5% | -8.8% | -9.2% |
| 5/22/2025 | -1.3% | -5.5% | -2.3% |
| 3/6/2025 | 12.2% | 8.5% | 18.4% |
| 11/21/2024 | 8.3% | 12.9% | 9.4% |
| 8/22/2024 | -6.8% | -5.8% | -7.6% |
| 5/23/2024 | 3.4% | 7.0% | 10.0% |
| 3/7/2024 | 9.3% | 2.6% | 5.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.3% | -6.9% | -7.6% |
| Max Positive | 21.7% | 23.0% | 25.1% |
| Max Negative | -13.2% | -11.6% | -12.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 11262025 | 10-Q 11/1/2025 |
| 7312025 | 8282025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5292025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3142025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11272024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3182024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11222023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8252023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5262023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3162023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11232022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8262022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5272022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3172022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Eddy Robert W. | President & CEO | 11052025 | Sell | 87.67 | 1,200 | 105,204 | 27,478,671 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |