BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $92.17 | Market Cap: $12.1 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $92.17Market Cap: $12.1 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Grocery Platforms, Supply Chain Digitization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
BJ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The search results provide information about BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ) within the specified timeframe (July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025). While there isn't a direct statement confirming a -12.5% stock drop for the exact period, the results do indicate factors that could contribute to stock movement, including:
* **Q2 Fiscal 2025 Earnings:** BJ's Wholesale Club announced its Q2 fiscal 2025 results on August 22, 2025. While the company reported $1.14 EPS, topping consensus estimates by $0.04, revenue of $5.38 billion was below analysts' expectations of $5.49 billion. Comparable club sales declined by 0.3% year-over-year due to lower gasoline prices, but increased by 2.3% excluding gasoline sales.
* **Analyst Rating and Price Target Adjustments:** Several analysts adjusted their ratings and price targets for BJ during this period.
* On November 17, 2025, Evercore ISI Group lowered its price target for BJ to $85.00 from $100.00, while maintaining an "In-Line" rating.
* On November 12, 2025, Wells Fargo maintained an "Overweight" rating but reduced its price target to $105.00 from $120.00.
* On November 10, 2025, JPMorgan Chase & Co. reduced its price target to $90.00 from $110.00 and set a "neutral" rating.
* Gordon Haskett lowered BJ's from a "buy" to a "hold" rating and set a $105.00 target price on August 15th.
* Citigroup cut its price target from $120.00 to $115.00 on August 25th.
* DA Davidson reduced its price objective from $140.00 to $123.00 on August 25th.
* Weiss Ratings cut shares from a "buy (b-)" to a "hold (c+)" rating on October 8th.
* **Insider Selling:** CEO Robert W. Eddy sold 17,898 shares of the stock on November 3rd, for a total value of $1,605,629.58. This amount is below the USD 5 million threshold, so it will not be included as a key point. EVP Graham Luce also sold shares for $629,118.00, which is also below the threshold.
* **Upcoming Q3 Fiscal 2025 Earnings:** BJ's Wholesale Club is scheduled to release its Q3 fiscal 2025 earnings before the market opens on Friday, November 21, 2025. Uncertainty or anticipation around this upcoming report could influence stock movement.
* **Broader Market Sentiment/Forecasts:** Some analyst reports indicate a "Neutral" sentiment for the stock and mention a slight decline in comparable sales and adverse employment trends as potential risks.
Based on the information, here are the key points:
1. BJ's Wholesale Club reported Q2 fiscal 2025 revenue below analysts' expectations. While earnings per share (EPS) exceeded estimates at $1.14, the reported revenue of $5.38 billion for the quarter ending August 2, 2025, fell short of the consensus estimate of $5.49 billion.
2. Comparable club sales experienced a decline due to lower gasoline prices. In its Q2 fiscal 2025 results, comparable club sales decreased by 0.3% year-over-year, primarily attributable to the declining retail prices of fuel. However, excluding gasoline sales, comparable club sales increased by 2.3%.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BJ Return | 64% | 80% | -1% | 1% | 34% | 4% | 307% |
| Peers Return | 29% | 26% | -9% | 3% | 4% | 12% | 79% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BJ Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 63% | 50% | 57% | 47% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BJ Max Drawdown | -15% | -0% | -22% | -8% | -3% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -14% | -23% | -24% | -23% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WMT, COST, TGT, DG, DLTR. See BJ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BJ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -23.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 548 days | 120 days |
Compare to WMT, COST, TGT, DG, DLTR
In The Past
BJ's Wholesale Club's stock fell -27.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/18/2021. A -27.3% loss requires a 37.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BJ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.8% | -7.8% | -7.8% |
| 10032025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.5% | -7.5% | -7.9% |
| 09262025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -3.6% |
| 09262025 | GIS | General Mills | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.1% |
| 09122025 | SMPL | Simply Good Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -27.2% | -27.2% | -29.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.8% | -7.8% | -7.8% |
| 10032025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.5% | -7.5% | -7.9% |
| 09262025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.6% | 3.6% | -3.6% |
| 09262025 | GIS | General Mills | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -7.1% |
| 09122025 | SMPL | Simply Good Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -27.2% | -27.2% | -29.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for BJ's Wholesale Club
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 103.05 |
| Mkt Cap | 31.5 |
| Rev LTM | 73,646 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,607 |
| FCF LTM | 2,397 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,246 |
| CFO LTM | 4,772 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,108 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 31.5 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 14.3 |
| P/E | 20.1 |
| P/CFO | 10.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -4.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -79.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/22/2025 | -8.5% | -8.8% | -9.2% |
| 5/22/2025 | -1.3% | -5.5% | -2.3% |
| 3/6/2025 | 12.2% | 8.5% | 18.4% |
| 11/21/2024 | 8.3% | 12.9% | 9.4% |
| 8/22/2024 | -6.8% | -5.8% | -7.6% |
| 5/23/2024 | 3.4% | 7.0% | 10.0% |
| 3/7/2024 | 9.3% | 2.6% | 5.2% |
| 11/17/2023 | -4.8% | -2.0% | -2.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -7.2% | -8.4% |
| Max Positive | 21.7% | 23.0% | 25.1% |
| Max Negative | -13.2% | -11.6% | -13.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 8282025 | 10-Q 8/2/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5292025 | 10-Q 5/3/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3142025 | 10-K 2/1/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11272024 | 10-Q 11/2/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 8/3/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 5/4/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3182024 | 10-K 2/3/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11222023 | 10-Q 10/28/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8252023 | 10-Q 7/29/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5262023 | 10-Q 4/29/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3162023 | 10-K 1/28/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11232022 | 10-Q 10/29/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8262022 | 10-Q 7/30/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5272022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3172022 | 10-K 1/29/2022 |
| 10312021 | 11242021 | 10-Q 10/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |