B&G Foods (BGS)
Market Price (11/28/2025): $4.52 | Market Cap: $361.6 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats
B&G Foods (BGS)
Market Price (11/28/2025): $4.52Market Cap: $361.6 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Packaged Foods & Meats
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -89%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -127% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 568% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 17%, FCF Yield is 15% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Vegan Products. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -58% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 17%, FCF Yield is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Vegan Products. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -89%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -127% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 568% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.0%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -58% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BGS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining the stock movement for B&G Foods (BGS) from July 31, 2025, to November 28, 2025:
1. Better-Than-Expected Third Quarter 2025 Earnings. B&G Foods announced its Q3 2025 earnings on November 5, 2025, reporting an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.15, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.11. Quarterly revenue of $439.30 million also exceeded the consensus estimate of $435.47 million. This positive earnings surprise led to a significant uptick in the stock, including a nearly 25% increase on November 6, 2025.
2. Strategic Portfolio Reshaping Through Divestitures. During the period, B&G Foods continued its efforts to streamline its portfolio. The company completed the divestiture of the Le Sueur brand on August 1, 2025. Additionally, B&G Foods announced an agreement to sell the Green Giant brand in Canada, with the sale anticipated to close in either Q4 2025 or Q1 2026. These strategic moves aim to optimize the company's brand presence and improve its financial structure.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BGS Return | 68% | 18% | -61% | 0% | -28% | -27% | -60% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 12% | -7% | -20% | -11% | -8% | -16% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BGS Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 25% | 50% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 27% | 45% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BGS Max Drawdown | -35% | -4% | -62% | -28% | -37% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -0% | -18% | -31% | -17% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DAR, TR, BRCC, BRBF, MEHA. See BGS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BGS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -81.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 431.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 19 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -67.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 209.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -81.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 449.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 846 days | 1480 days |
Compare to DAR, TR, BRCC, BRBF, MEHA
In The Past
B&G Foods's stock fell -81.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/27/2021. A -81.2% loss requires a 431.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BGS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -12.5% |
| 10032025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.4% | -14.4% | -15.8% |
| 09262025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.0% | 4.0% | -3.6% |
| 09262025 | GIS | General Mills | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.6% | -4.6% | -7.1% |
| 09122025 | SMPL | Simply Good Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -27.3% | -27.3% | -29.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -12.5% |
| 10032025 | IPAR | Interparfums | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.4% | -14.4% | -15.8% |
| 09262025 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.0% | 4.0% | -3.6% |
| 09262025 | GIS | General Mills | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.6% | -4.6% | -7.1% |
| 09122025 | SMPL | Simply Good Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -27.3% | -27.3% | -29.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for B&G Foods
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 4.51 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.6 |
| Rev LTM | 730 |
| Op Inc LTM | 106 |
| FCF LTM | 55 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 103 |
| CFO LTM | 86 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 129 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.6 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 6.8 |
| P/E | 15.6 |
| P/CFO | 15.3 |
| Total Yield | -2.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 12.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -15.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -50.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -28.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -124.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 24.6% | 17.3% | |
| 8/4/2025 | -2.7% | -1.0% | 8.3% |
| 5/7/2025 | -25.2% | -31.9% | -33.4% |
| 2/25/2025 | 2.9% | -2.2% | -3.4% |
| 11/5/2024 | -19.8% | -26.3% | -24.9% |
| 8/6/2024 | -2.7% | -4.0% | 0.8% |
| 5/8/2024 | -28.3% | -21.6% | -19.0% |
| 2/27/2024 | 21.3% | 18.6% | 23.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 8 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 7.1% | 14.4% |
| Median Negative | -7.4% | -4.6% | -11.0% |
| Max Positive | 28.5% | 29.3% | 29.1% |
| Max Negative | -28.3% | -31.9% | -33.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 1/1/2022 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Hart Eric H | EVP OF HUMAN RESOURCES & CHRO | 5302025 | Sell | 4.18 | 1,500 | 6,270 | 469,889 | Form |
| 1 | Schoch Martin C. | EVP of Supply Chain | 5192025 | Sell | 4.45 | 3,931 | 17,504 | 152,937 | Form |
| 2 | Hart Eric H | EVP OF HUMAN RESOURCES & CHRO | 11182024 | Buy | 6.25 | 5,000 | 31,238 | 555,414 | Form |
| 3 | Vogel Andrew D | EVP, PRESIDENT OF MEALS | 11132024 | Buy | 6.36 | 7,500 | 47,700 | 235,727 | Form |
| 4 | SHERRILL STEPHEN | 11082024 | Buy | 6.63 | 70,000 | 464,296 | 2,341,936 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |