Bank of America (BAC)
Market Price (3/7/2026): $48.56 | Market Cap: $357.6 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
Bank of America (BAC)
Market Price (3/7/2026): $48.56Market Cap: $357.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -16% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -73% | Key risksBAC key risks include [1] net interest income compression due to high sensitivity to interest rate changes and [2] potential for increased loan losses from deteriorating credit quality in its commercial real estate portfolio. | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 13% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Sustainable Finance, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.4% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -73% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Capital ratio is >2x the minimum of 6%Tier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, Sustainable Finance, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -16% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x |
| Key risksBAC key risks include [1] net interest income compression due to high sensitivity to interest rate changes and [2] potential for increased loan losses from deteriorating credit quality in its commercial real estate portfolio. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Bank of America's stock experienced a significant sell-off following its Fourth Quarter 2025 earnings report despite exceeding analyst expectations. On January 14, 2026, Bank of America reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.98, surpassing the forecasted $0.96, and a revenue of $28.4 billion, which was higher than the $27.55 billion forecast. The net income increased by 12% compared to the previous year. However, the stock saw a pre-market decline of 2.4% and fell 4.6% in the afternoon session on earnings day. This reaction suggests that investors were focused on broader concerns beyond the headline figures.
2. Concerns over potential government regulation, specifically a proposed cap on credit card interest rates, weighed heavily on the stock. Reports indicating that the U.S. President suggested a 10% cap on credit card interest rates created worries among investors about a potential squeeze on profitability for consumer banks. This proposal was seen to directly reduce net interest margins on revolving balances, impacting the financial sector broadly, including Bank of America.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -8.5% change in BAC stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 53.07 | 48.56 | -8.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 111,233 | 113,097 | 1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 26.5% | 27.0% | 1.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.4 | 11.7 | -12.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7,466 | 7,364 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -8.5% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BAC | -8.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 50.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | -5.2% | 82.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.7% change in BAC stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 49.92 | 48.56 | -2.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 108,490 | 113,097 | 4.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.7% | 27.0% | 4.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.6 | 11.7 | -13.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7,581 | 7,364 | 2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BAC | -2.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.5% | 48.1% |
| Sector (XLF) | -6.0% | 78.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.4% change in BAC stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 44.80 | 48.56 | 8.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 105,856 | 113,097 | 6.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.5% | 27.0% | 5.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.9 | 11.7 | -8.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7,738 | 7,364 | 5.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BAC | 8.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.2% | 69.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | -2.1% | 83.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 54.0% change in BAC stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.53 | 48.56 | 54.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 94,950 | 113,097 | 19.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.0% | 27.0% | -7.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.3 | 11.7 | 26.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8,088 | 7,364 | 9.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 54.0% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BAC | 54.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.0% | 58.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 48.0% | 82.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BAC Return | 50% | -24% | 5% | 34% | 28% | -9% | 86% |
| Peers Return | 37% | -13% | 20% | 45% | 49% | -8% | 186% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BAC Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 50% | 75% | 67% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 43% | 53% | 62% | 72% | 20% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BAC Max Drawdown | -2% | -32% | -22% | -6% | -21% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -27% | -12% | -4% | -16% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JPM, WFC, C, MS, GS. See BAC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BAC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 665 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -30.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 318 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -94.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1578.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6,079 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to JPM, WFC, C, MS, GS
In The Past
Bank of America's stock fell -49.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/8/2022. A -49.0% loss requires a 96.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Bank of America (BAC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Bank of America:
Walmart for your money: Like Walmart offers a vast array of products for everyday needs across numerous locations, Bank of America provides a comprehensive range of essential financial services (checking, savings, loans, mortgages, credit cards) to millions of consumers and businesses, with a massive physical and digital footprint.
Amazon for financial services: Similar to how Amazon aims to be a one-stop shop for nearly any product or service online, Bank of America strives to be a comprehensive provider of financial services, from basic banking to complex investment and wealth management, accessible through its extensive branch network and digital platforms.
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Major Products and Services of Bank of America (BAC)
- Checking & Savings Accounts: Core banking services allowing individuals and businesses to manage daily finances and save money securely.
- Credit Cards: Provides revolving credit lines for consumer and small business purchases, often accompanied by reward programs.
- Mortgage Loans: Offers financing to individuals for the purchase or refinancing of residential properties.
- Auto Loans: Provides financing for individuals to acquire new or used vehicles.
- Investment & Wealth Management: Comprehensive services including financial planning, brokerage, and portfolio management for individuals, families, and institutions.
- Corporate & Commercial Lending: Provides various loan and credit facilities to small businesses, corporations, and institutional clients for operational and growth needs.
- Treasury Management Services: Solutions for businesses to optimize cash flow, manage payments, and mitigate financial risk efficiently.
- Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) Advisory: Offers strategic advice and execution support to corporations involved in mergers, acquisitions, or divestitures.
- Capital Markets Services: Facilitates access to public and private capital through equity and debt underwriting, and provides sales and trading of securities for institutional clients.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Bank of America (symbol: BAC) is a diversified financial services company serving a broad array of customers, including individuals, small businesses, corporations, and institutional investors. While Bank of America serves a vast number of corporate and institutional clients through its Global Banking and Global Markets segments, the names of these specific customer companies are typically not disclosed publicly due to confidentiality and their sheer volume. Additionally, it would be impractical to list them all as major customers.
Given its extensive reach into the consumer market, a significant portion of its services are provided to individuals. Below are three major categories of individual customers that Bank of America serves:
- Everyday Consumers: This category encompasses individuals and families who utilize a wide range of standard banking products and services. These include checking and savings accounts, debit and credit cards, mortgages for home purchases, auto loans, and personal loans for various financial needs. This segment represents the mass market and forms the foundation of Bank of America's consumer base.
- Affluent and High-Net-Worth Individuals: These clients are served through Bank of America's Global Wealth & Investment Management division, primarily via Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank. They typically have more complex financial needs, requiring comprehensive wealth management, investment advisory services, trust and estate planning, specialized lending solutions, and philanthropic services.
- Self-Directed Investors: This category includes individuals who manage their own investments and retirement planning. They utilize platforms like Merrill Edge for brokerage accounts, trading services, and access to research tools, preferring a more hands-on approach to their investment portfolios without necessarily requiring full-service wealth management.
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- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
- Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
- IBM (IBM)
- Accenture plc (ACN)
- Visa Inc. (V)
- Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
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Brian T. Moynihan, Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
Brian Moynihan leads a team of more than 210,000 employees focused on driving Responsible Growth for teammates, clients, communities, and shareholders. He was appointed Chair of the Board of Directors in October 2014 and President and Chief Executive Officer in January 2010. Prior to becoming CEO, Moynihan led each of the company's operating units. He joined Fleet Boston bank in April 1993, and after Bank of America merged with FleetBoston Financial in 2004, he became president of global wealth and investment management at Bank of America. He was named CEO of Merrill Lynch after its sale to Bank of America in September 2008.
Alastair Borthwick, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Alastair Borthwick is responsible for the overall financial management of Bank of America, including accounting, balance sheet management, financial planning and analysis, corporate treasury, investor relations, corporate investments, and tax. He became CFO in 2021. Before this role, Borthwick served as president of Global Commercial Banking for Bank of America, a position he assumed in 2012. He also served as a managing director and co-head of Global Capital Markets, with responsibility for Equity Capital Markets, Investment Grade Debt Capital Markets, Leveraged Finance, and Global Origination for Rates & Currencies. Borthwick joined Bank of America in 2005 and spent the prior 12 years at Goldman Sachs.
Dean Athanasia, Co-President
Dean Athanasia was named Co-President of Bank of America in September 2025. He drives company-wide initiatives focused on long-term growth and returns and oversees Bank of America's eight lines of business and their leaders. He has nearly 60 years of experience in financial services across various client segments, markets, functions, and industries.
Jim DeMare, Co-President
Jim DeMare was also named Co-President of Bank of America in September 2025. Along with Dean Athanasia, he is responsible for driving company-wide initiatives for long-term growth and returns and overseeing the eight lines of business and their leaders. DeMare also has extensive experience in financial services, spanning nearly 60 years across different client segments and markets.
Lauren Mogensen, Global General Counsel
Lauren Mogensen serves as the Global General Counsel for Bank of America. She was named to this role as part of a management overhaul in 2021. She previously served as the head of compliance and operational risk for the company.
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The key risks to Bank of America's business include:
- Interest Rate Sensitivity and Net Interest Income (NII) Compression: Bank of America's profitability is highly sensitive to interest rate changes. Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a compression in Net Interest Income (NII) growth. For instance, a 100 basis point decline in interest rates is estimated to reduce the bank's NII by $2.3 billion over a twelve-month period.
- Economic and Geopolitical Uncertainty: A broad range of external factors, including the risk of recession, can impact Bank of America. Elevated unemployment and trade policy uncertainties could reduce loan demand. Geopolitical headwinds, such as pressure on banks concerning international operations (e.g., with Chinese firms), also present risks. Broader economic and political instability can cause market volatility and affect the bank's operations and revenue streams.
- Credit Quality and Potential Loan Losses: The bank faces risks related to the credit quality of its loan portfolio. Bank of America has shown a cautious approach by increasing provisions for possible loan losses amidst economic uncertainty. Specifically, a deterioration in certain portfolio segments, such as commercial real estate, could lead to increased net charge-offs. Reports of problematic loans at other regional banks can also create a negative backdrop for the financial sector, potentially impacting BAC.
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The clear emerging threats for Bank of America include:
- The continued rise and expansion of digital-native challenger banks (neobanks) and fintech platforms: These agile companies, such as Chime, SoFi, and Revolut, leverage advanced technology to offer highly personalized, user-friendly, and often lower-cost banking services (e.g., checking, savings, lending, payments) primarily through mobile applications. They are actively attracting younger, digitally-savvy demographics and those seeking alternatives to traditional branch-based banking, thus chipping away at Bank of America's customer base and deposit growth.
- The increasing foray of large technology companies into financial services: Tech giants like Apple (with Apple Card, Apple Pay Later), Google (with Google Wallet, Google Pay), and Amazon are leveraging their vast customer bases, extensive data, and strong brand loyalty to offer embedded financial products and services. These offerings range from credit cards and buy-now-pay-later options to sophisticated payment systems and potential direct banking functionalities, disintermediating traditional banks by capturing customer interactions and transactional revenue that would otherwise flow through institutions like Bank of America.
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Bank of America (symbol: BAC) operates across several key financial services. The addressable markets for its main products and services are primarily within the United States, with some global reach for investment banking and wealth management.
Retail Banking / Consumer Banking
- The U.S. retail banking market is valued at approximately USD 0.87 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1.08 trillion by 2030, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.22%.
- The overall U.S. consumer lending market was valued at USD 1.12 trillion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 1.87 trillion by 2030, with a CAGR of 16.23%.
- Total U.S. consumer debt, which includes mortgages and non-mortgage debt, reached $18.03 trillion as of September 2025.
Commercial Banking
- The U.S. commercial banking market is estimated to be USD 732.5 billion in 2025 and is forecasted to grow to USD 915.45 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 4.56%.
- Another estimate for the U.S. commercial banking market size is $1.6 trillion in 2025.
Wealth Management
- The U.S. wealth management market had assets under management (AUM) of $64.4 trillion in 2024 and is expected to reach $87.35 trillion by 2028.
- Globally, assets under management (AUM) are projected to reach US$145.4 trillion by 2025, with the United States holding approximately 54.2% of this global AUM. This implies a U.S. AUM of approximately $78.8 trillion in 2025.
Investment Banking
- The U.S. investment banking market is valued at USD 54.74 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 66.15 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 3.86%.
- The global investment banking market size was valued at USD 103.23 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 110.12 billion in 2025, reaching USD 183.28 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 7.55%. North America accounts for approximately 40% of the global investment banking revenue.
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Bank of America (BAC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key areas:
- Net Interest Income (NII) Growth and Loan/Deposit Expansion: The bank anticipates continued growth in Net Interest Income, projecting a 5-7% increase in 2026, primarily fueled by organic loan and deposit growth and the repricing of fixed-rate assets. CEO Brian Moynihan has stated expectations for NII to grow throughout 2025, supported by robust loan growth of over 4%. This outlook is bolstered by an improving lending profitability environment, characterized by a steeper yield curve and reduced pressure on deposit costs.
- Resurgence in Investment Banking Fees: A significant driver is the anticipated rebound in investment banking activity. Bank of America saw a 43% year-over-year increase in investment banking fees in Q3 2025, contributing to a 7% rise in overall revenue. This growth spanned advisory services, debt underwriting, and equity underwriting. Analysts and the CEO project a stronger 2025 for dealmaking, with potential regulatory changes under the new administration expected to further favor mergers and acquisitions, thus boosting investment banking revenue.
- Growth in Wealth Management and Asset Management Fees: The Global Wealth and Investment Management (GWIM) segment is a strong contributor to revenue growth. In Q3 2025, GWIM reported record revenue, up 10% year-over-year, driven by a 12% increase in asset management fees and solid growth in custom lending. The segment's net income rose 19% in the same quarter, supported by enhanced advisor productivity and an increase in fee-based assets. Bank of America's strategic focus on wealth management is expected to continue yielding gains.
- Sustained Performance in Sales & Trading: Bank of America has demonstrated consistent strength in its Global Markets division. In Q3 2025, Global Markets revenue increased by 11% year-over-year, with sales and trading revenue specifically rising 9%. This marks the 14th consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth in the Sales & Trading businesses, indicating ongoing momentum and market share gains.
- Digital Banking and Technology Investments: Ongoing investments in technology and digital banking initiatives are expected to drive future revenue growth. The bank is seeing an increasing number of new accounts opened digitally, reflecting the effectiveness of these investments and evolving client preferences. Initiatives aimed at enhancing customer service and leveraging digital payment technologies are considered crucial for maintaining a competitive advantage, fostering customer loyalty, and supporting long-term profitability.
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Share Repurchases
- Bank of America authorized a new $40 billion common stock repurchase program, effective August 1, 2025, to supersede its existing program.
- As of June 30, 2025, the previous repurchase program had approximately $9.1 billion remaining.
- In 2020, Bank of America returned $12 billion to shareholders through dividends and net share repurchases, despite a temporary halt in repurchases in late Q1 2020 due to federal bank regulatory restrictions.
Share Issuance
- Over 67 million shares were granted to employees through "Sharing Success" awards between 2022 and 2024, with an additional 19 million shares granted in the first quarter of 2025.
- Share repurchases are conducted to offset the dilutive impact of these equity awards.
Capital Expenditures
- Bank of America plans a significant physical expansion by adding 150 new financial centers by 2027.
- The company continues to invest in digital technologies, such as QR sign-in, and leverages technology and AI to enhance client experience and team productivity.
- In 2020, fixed asset capital investments amounted to $2.74 billion ($0.83 billion net of depreciation), primarily directed towards its real estate portfolio and technology.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 133.40 |
| Mkt Cap | 251.5 |
| Rev LTM | 84,236 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | -34,002 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -22,876 |
| CFO LTM | -32,078 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -20,169 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -52.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -31.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -56.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -34.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 251.5 |
| P/S | 3.5 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 13.5 |
| P/CFO | -5.5 |
| Total Yield | 7.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -8.9% |
| D/E | 1.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 29.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 111.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 10.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 31.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Banking | 41,436 | 42,031 | 38,635 | 34,005 | 33,262 |
| Global Banking | 23,748 | 24,796 | 22,229 | 20,875 | 18,987 |
| Global Wealth & Investment Management | 22,929 | 21,105 | 21,748 | 20,748 | 18,584 |
| Global Markets | 21,812 | 19,527 | 18,138 | 19,255 | 18,765 |
| Tax-exempt securities | -619 | -567 | -438 | -427 | -499 |
| All Other | -3,450 | -8,311 | -5,362 | -5,343 | -3,571 |
| Total | 105,856 | 98,581 | 94,950 | 89,113 | 85,528 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Banking | 10,759 | 11,593 | 12,516 | 11,891 | 6,504 |
| Global Banking | 7,984 | 10,248 | 7,807 | 9,814 | 3,466 |
| Global Markets | 5,622 | 4,678 | 4,182 | 4,557 | 5,252 |
| Global Wealth & Investment Management | 4,263 | 3,947 | 4,675 | 4,327 | 3,071 |
| All Other | -1,655 | -3,951 | -1,652 | 1,389 | -399 |
| Total | 26,973 | 26,515 | 27,528 | 31,978 | 17,894 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Banking | 1,034,370 | 1,049,830 | 1,126,453 | 1,131,142 | 988,580 |
| Global Markets | 876,548 | 817,588 | 812,489 | 747,794 | 616,609 |
| Global Banking | 670,505 | 621,751 | 588,466 | 638,131 | 580,561 |
| All Other | 341,509 | 346,356 | 155,074 | 214,153 | 264,141 |
| Global Wealth & Investment Management | 338,367 | 344,626 | 368,893 | 438,275 | 369,736 |
| Total | 3,261,299 | 3,180,151 | 3,051,375 | 3,169,495 | 2,819,627 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $48.64 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 363.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/29/1986 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -14.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $53.17 | $49.95 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -8.5% | -2.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.4% | 27.0% |
| Downside Capture | 145.94 | 98.73 |
| Upside Capture | 101.33 | 100.98 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 47.9% | 69.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.34 | 1.22 | 1.12 | 0.92 | 1.01 | 1.01 |
| Up Beta | 1.50 | 1.38 | 1.21 | 0.95 | 0.72 | 0.81 |
| Down Beta | 0.99 | 0.85 | 0.64 | 0.74 | 1.37 | 1.17 |
| Up Capture | 129% | 91% | 110% | 87% | 103% | 105% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 21 | 32 | 66 | 142 | 389 |
| Down Capture | 154% | 174% | 151% | 108% | 103% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 20 | 29 | 57 | 107 | 358 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAC | 18.4% | 26.9% | 0.61 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 1.8% | 19.4% | -0.03 | 83.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.4% | 19.2% | 0.66 | 70.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 77.1% | 26.1% | 2.17 | -1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.6% | 17.1% | 0.89 | 27.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.1% | 16.6% | 0.01 | 50.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -24.9% | 45.6% | -0.49 | 24.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAC | 9.1% | 26.9% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 10.5% | 18.7% | 0.44 | 85.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 17.0% | 0.60 | 61.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 17.2% | 1.14 | -0.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.9% | 19.0% | 0.51 | 19.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 18.8% | 0.17 | 48.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.5% | 56.8% | 0.34 | 21.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BAC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAC | 17.0% | 30.8% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.4% | 22.2% | 0.56 | 90.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 69.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.1% | 15.6% | 0.80 | -9.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 17.6% | 0.43 | 27.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.1% | 20.7% | 0.26 | 52.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 65.9% | 66.8% | 1.05 | 15.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/14/2026 | -3.8% | -4.5% | -3.7% |
| 10/15/2025 | 4.4% | 2.9% | 8.0% |
| 7/16/2025 | -0.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% |
| 4/15/2025 | 3.6% | 4.5% | 22.0% |
| 1/16/2025 | -1.0% | -1.5% | -0.3% |
| 10/15/2024 | 0.5% | -0.4% | 9.4% |
| 7/16/2024 | 5.3% | 1.0% | -8.2% |
| 4/16/2024 | -3.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 9 | 18 |
| # Negative | 11 | 15 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 4.5% | 7.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -2.8% | -7.8% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 11.1% | 22.0% |
| Max Negative | -6.5% | -8.8% | -12.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Demare, James P | President, Global Markets | Revocable Trust | Sell | 8012025 | 45.57 | 148,391 | 6,761,733 | 10,179,987 | Form |
| 2 | Borthwick, Alastair M | Executive Vice President & CFO | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 50.24 | 68,000 | 3,416,320 | 16,470,832 | Form |
| 3 | Athanasia, Dean C | Co-President | Direct | Sell | 3052026 | 50.21 | 136,558 | 6,856,168 | 28,042,668 | Form |
BAC Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The investment thesis presents a highly unfavorable risk/reward skew. The downside scenario (-36.7%) is mathematically much larger than the upside scenario (+20.5%), and the probability weighting (40% up / 60% down) further skews the outcome negatively. The primary cyclical headwind of NII compression is a more powerful and immediate force than the secular, slow-moving benefit of the GWIM mix-shift, making the stock unattractive at the current valuation.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityBank of America's core profitability is fundamentally tied to the interest rate cycle, which dictates its Net Interest Margin—the 'price' of its primary commodity (money/credit). The business is mature and its growth tracks the broader economy, making cycle timing and normalized earnings power the most critical analytical frameworks, which are central to the 'Cyclical' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is Bank of America's successful and ongoing pivot towards its higher-margin, less interest-rate-sensitive Global Wealth & Investment Management (GWIM) business. This segment's growth is outpacing traditional banking, improving the quality and stability of the overall earnings stream and justifying a higher valuation multiple over time.
- GWIM revenue grew 10% YoY in Q4 2025, significantly outpacing the 5% growth in the larger Consumer Banking segment.
- Client balances within GWIM increased 12% YoY to $4.8 trillion, driven by both market appreciation and positive net client flows.
- The GWIM segment added 21,000 net new relationships in 2025, indicating strong momentum and market share capture in a key growth area.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk to the stock is a faster-than-guided compression of Net Interest Income (NII) due to more aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026. The market is pricing in a dovish Fed policy that directly conflicts with the company's NII growth guidance, setting up a potential for a material earnings miss.
- Management has guided to 5-7% NII growth for 2026, while consensus economic forecasts anticipate multiple rate cuts.
- Bank of America's own sensitivity analysis indicates that a 100-basis-point parallel downward shift in the yield curve would reduce NII by approximately $2.0 billion over 12 months.
- Revenue estimate revisions for FY2026 have been trending down, reflecting analyst concerns over the NII outlook.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Full-Year Net Interest Income (NII) Growth Guidance | Maintain 5-7% Range | This is the primary Anti-Alpha risk. Any downward revision from the current 5-7% guided range for FY2026 would confirm the bear case that margin pressure is worse than management's forecast. |
| Consumer Credit Net Charge-Off Rate | Remain below 1.00% | This is the leading indicator for credit deterioration. A sequential rise above the rates seen in early 2025 would signal that macro credit normalization is accelerating and would force a material increase in provisions for credit losses, impacting earnings. |
| Global Wealth & Investment Management (GWIM) Revenue Growth | >10% YoY | This is the core of the Alpha Driver. The bull thesis relies on this segment's ability to outgrow the rest of the bank and improve the quality of the earnings mix. Growth below this level would weaken the long thesis. |
NII Deceleration vs. Capital Returns & Efficiency
BULL VIEW
Aggressive buybacks and positive operating leverage will drive EPS growth, while strong wealth management performance provides a stable fee-based offset to cyclical NII pressure.
CORE TENSION
Can strong capital returns and efficiency gains offset the impact of decelerating Net Interest Income (NII) growth as the Fed potentially cuts interest rates faster than guided?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Management's 2026 NII growth guidance of 5-7% is a deceleration from Q4 2025's 10% YoY growth, and consensus estimates are already trending down, reflecting this concern.
BEAR VIEW
Faster-than-guided Fed rate cuts will materially compress Net Interest Margin, causing an earnings miss that overwhelms buybacks. Latent credit risks in CRE and consumer could surface.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
April 15, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call & Guidance Watch: Full-Year 2026 NII growth guidance. Watch for any revision from the current 5-7% range. Also, monitor Provisions for Credit Losses for signs of consumer stress. |
Ongoing (Monthly) | Monthly Consumer Credit Data Release (NY Fed) Watch: 30+ day delinquency rates for credit cards and auto loans. A sharp sequential increase signals rising stress for BAC's consumer loan portfolio. |
H1 2026 | Finalization of Basel III "Endgame" Rules Watch: Final mandated increase in Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital requirements for G-SIBs like Bank of America. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 18, 2025 | Investor Day Announcement Details: Bank of America announced it would host an investor day on November 5, 2025, for its management team to present strategic priorities. The market reaction was muted. | Flat (0.3%) $47.40 -> $47.56 |
Sep 18, 2025 | DOJ Investigation Settlement Details: BofA Securities resolved a criminal investigation with the DOJ regarding market manipulation by former employees, agreeing to pay $5.56 million. The stock reaction was positive. | Modest 1.4% gain $51.13 -> $51.86 |
Oct 15, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: The company reported strong results, with Consumer Banking net income up 28% YoY and Wealth Management net income up 19%. Despite the strong report, the stock sold off. | Fell notably by -3.5% $52.00 -> $50.17 |
Nov 5, 2025 | Bank of America Investor Day 2025 Details: Management presented the company's strategic priorities and growth opportunities, focusing on digital transformation, wealth management, and operational efficiency. The stock saw a slight pullback following the event. | Slight -2.0% pullback $53.26 -> $52.17 |
Dec 24, 2025 | Stock Reaches 52-Week High Details: The stock reached a new 52-week high, capping a strong rally in the second half of 2025 driven by solid earnings and a favorable macro backdrop at the time. | Flat (0.5%) $55.97 -> $56.25 |
Jan 14, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: BAC beat analyst estimates on EPS ($0.98 vs $0.96) and revenue. Despite the beat, the stock showed a muted reaction, reflecting concerns over decelerating forward NII growth guidance. | Flat (0.2%) $52.48 -> $52.59 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Volatility is moderate and compressing. While sentiment is Neutral and near-term visibility is only Medium, the bank's moat is stable and the business is a high-quality compounder. This profile warrants a standard allocation, not an aggressive one.
Diversification Alternatives
JPM
INDUSTRYConsidered best-in-class operator with a stronger perceived brand in Ultra-High-Net-Worth wealth management and a larger, more profitable investment bank.
SCHW
SECTORLess direct exposure to commercial and consumer credit risk. Revenue is more heavily weighted towards fees from assets under management, which are higher quality than net interest income.
Bank of America is being re-rated from a rate-sensitive legacy bank to a diversified financial engine, as record Net Interest Income is now complemented by a world-class wealth management franchise and a rebound in investment banking fees.
Filter all news through the lens of Net Interest Income (NII) trajectory, credit quality, and operating leverage.
NII guidance beats (reiterated 5-7% growth for 2026); loan growth acceleration; better-than-expected efficiency ratio improvements driven by AI/automation; significant capital return unlocked by potential easing of Basel III Endgame rules.
Faster-than-expected Fed rate cuts compressing NIM; significant increase in net charge-offs or provisions for credit losses, particularly in credit card or commercial real estate; expense growth outpacing revenue growth; significant fines or regulatory actions.
Minor adjustments to analyst price targets; short-term stock price fluctuations based on broad market sentiment; individual M&A or IPO announcements (look for the trend, not single deals); competitor's quarterly results unless they signal a major market share shift.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is sustained high Net Interest Income (NII) driven by a "higher-for-longer" interest rate environment, which allows BAC to reprice its massive fixed-rate asset portfolio. Management's guidance for 5-7% NII growth in 2026, even with anticipated rate cuts, is a key driver. A secondary catalyst is the potential for up to $20 billion in excess capital return (buybacks/dividends) if Basel III Endgame rules are relaxed in mid-2026.
Consumer Banking (Retail & Small Business)
$44.8B TTM (39% of Total) · 28% MarginWhat It Is
Checking & savings accounts, credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, and small business loans.
Who Pays & How
Serves ~69 million US consumer and small business clients. Customers pay through net interest margin on deposits and loans, and through fees. Lock-in is created by the high friction of moving primary banking relationships, direct deposit integration, and bundled products.
Competition
Global Wealth & Investment Management (Merrill)
$26.4B TTM (23% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Investment management, brokerage services, and wealth planning.
Who Pays & How
High-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth individuals ($250k+ investable assets). Clients pay asset-based fees for advice and management. The Merrill Lynch brand and deep advisor relationships create a strong lock-in effect.
Competition
Global Banking (Corporate & Commercial)
$24.0B TTM (21% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Corporate loans, treasury services, investment banking advisory (M&A), and debt/equity underwriting.
Who Pays & How
Large corporations (revenues >$2B) and middle-market companies ($50M - $2B). They pay interest on loans and fees for advisory and underwriting services. Deep, long-term relationships and integrated treasury solutions create significant switching costs.
Competition
Global Markets (Sales & Trading)
$20.8B TTM (18% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Market-making, financing, securities clearing, and risk management across fixed-income, currencies, commodities (FICC), and equities.
Who Pays & How
Institutional clients (hedge funds, asset managers, pensions). They pay through the bid-ask spread on trades and fees for financing and clearing.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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