Alibaba (BABA)
Market Price (10/14/2025): $167.97 | Market Cap: $389.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Alibaba (BABA)
Market Price (10/14/2025): $167.97Market Cap: $389.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 38%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 33%, FCF Yield is 39% | ||
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -48% | ||
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 151 Bil, FCF LTM is 151 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 38%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 33%, FCF Yield is 39% |
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -48% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 151 Bil, FCF LTM is 151 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
BABA Stock
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
BABA Return | 10% | -49% | -26% | -11% | 12% | 100% | -21% |
Peers Return | 104% | 19% | -39% | 24% | 12% | 32% | 171% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
BABA Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 67% | |
Peers Win Rate | 65% | 55% | 32% | 62% | 52% | 62% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
BABA Max Drawdown | -17% | -52% | -47% | -19% | -12% | -5% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -12% | -51% | -14% | -18% | -16% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, BIDU, EBAY, ETSY. See BABA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/13/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | BABA | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -76.7% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 328.9% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -30.0% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 42.9% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -38.1% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 61.5% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 351 days | 120 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Alibaba's stock fell -76.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/17/2021. A -76.7% loss requires a 328.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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About Alibaba (BABA)
Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through four segments: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The company operates Taobao Marketplace, a social commerce platform; Tmall, a third-party online and mobile commerce platform for brands and retailers; Alimama, a monetization platform; 1688.com and Alibaba.com, which are online wholesale marketplaces; AliExpress, a retail marketplace; Lazada, Trendyol, and Daraz that are e-commerce platforms; and Tmall Global and Kaola, which are import e-commerce platforms. It also operates Lingshoutong that connects FMCG manufacturers and their distributors to small retailers; Cainiao Network logistic services platform; Ele.me, an on-demand delivery and local services platform; Koubei, a restaurant and local services guide platform; and Fliggy, an online travel platform. In addition, the company offers pay-for-performance, in-feed, and display marketing services; and Taobao Ad Network and Exchange, a real-time online bidding marketing exchange. Further, it provides elastic computing, database, storage, virtualization network, large-scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, machine learning platform, and Internet of Things services. Additionally, the company operates Youku, an online video platform; Alibaba Pictures and other content platforms that provide online videos, films, live events, news feeds, literature, music, and others; Amap, a mobile digital map, navigation, and real-time traffic information app; DingTalk, a business efficiency app; and Tmall Genie, an AI-enabled smart speaker. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Title | Topic | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
DASHBOARDS | |||
BABA Dip Buy Analysis | |||
Alibaba Stock Shares Sink 11% In A Week, Time To Buy The Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
Alibaba (BABA) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
Alibaba Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 86.7% in 2025 and 8.0% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
Alibaba (BABA) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
Alibaba (BABA) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
Alibaba (BABA) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
Alibaba (BABA) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
Alibaba Group (BABA) Stock Has 58% Chance Of Rise In The Next One Month | |||
Alibaba Group (BABA) Stock Has 40% Chance Of Rise In The Next One Month | |||
ARTICLES | |||
Buy Or Fear Alibaba Stock After AI Surge? | October 2nd, 2025 | ||
Alibaba’s AI Chip Gambit | September 2nd, 2025 | ||
How AI Is Powering Alibaba’s Stock Turnaround | February 21st, 2025 | ||
Why Is Alibaba Stock Trading So Cheaply? | January 23rd, 2025 | ||
Alibaba Stock Is Down 70% From Highs, But Its AI Push Is Yielding Results | August 29th, 2024 |
Trade Ideas
Select past trade ideas related to BABA and Broadline Retail.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.2% | -14.2% | -14.2% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.6% | -7.6% | -7.6% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.1% | -6.1% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -11.7% | -11.7% | -11.7% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -14.2% | -14.2% | -14.2% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.6% | -7.6% | -7.6% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.1% | -6.1% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -11.7% | -11.7% | -11.7% |
See Trefis Trade Ideas for more.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Alibaba
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 146.26 |
Mkt Cap | 215.0 |
Rev LTM | 252,122 |
Op Inc LTM | 46,908 |
FCF LTM | 7,804 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 22,099 |
CFO LTM | 61,862 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 59,749 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
Rev Chg Q | 2.8% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
Op Mgn LTM | 14.3% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 21.2% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 16.5% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 215.0 |
P/S | 3.0 |
P/EBIT | 16.6 |
P/E | 23.0 |
P/CFO | 13.3 |
Total Yield | 5.2% |
Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
D/E | 0.3 |
Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 4.5% |
3M Rtn | 28.3% |
6M Rtn | 48.2% |
12M Rtn | 39.3% |
3Y Rtn | 123.2% |
1M Excs Rtn | 3.4% |
3M Excs Rtn | 23.8% |
6M Excs Rtn | 29.8% |
12M Excs Rtn | 22.3% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 17.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8292025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 6262025 | 20-F 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2202025 | 6-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 11182024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 8152024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 5232024 | 20-F 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2072024 | 6-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 11162023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 8102023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 7212023 | 20-F 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2232023 | 6-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 11172022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8042022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 7262022 | 20-F 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2242022 | 6-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 11182021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
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