Amazon.com (AMZN)
Market Price (10/18/2025): $213.45 | Market Cap: $2.3 TrilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Amazon.com (AMZN)
Market Price (10/18/2025): $213.45Market Cap: $2.3 TrilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 27x | |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 121 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 121 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 27x |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
AMZN Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
AMZN Return | 76% | 2% | -50% | 81% | 44% | -3% | 131% |
Peers Return | 62% | 5% | -33% | 39% | 20% | 46% | 179% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
AMZN Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 25% | 83% | 75% | 44% | |
Peers Win Rate | 63% | 57% | 33% | 62% | 60% | 62% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
AMZN Max Drawdown | -9% | -9% | -51% | -1% | -5% | -24% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -19% | -43% | -8% | -14% | -21% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, AAPL, WMT, BABA, W. See AMZN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | AMZN | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -56.1% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 128.0% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 470 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -22.7% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -34.1% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 51.8% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 407 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -65.3% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 187.8% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Amazon.com's stock fell -56.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/8/2021. A -56.1% loss requires a 128.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Title | Topic | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
DASHBOARDS | |||
Amazon.com Earnings Notes | |||
Should You Buy Amazon.com Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
Amazon.com Stock Dropped 7.9% - Have You Assessed the Risk | Return | ||
How Does Amazon.com Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | |||
Amazon.com vs Microsoft: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
Amazon.com vs Royal Caribbean: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
Better Bet Than AMZN Stock: Pay Less Than Amazon.com To Get More From VST, BMRN | |||
Why MSFT With 26% Upside May Beat AMZN? | Peer Comparison | ||
AMZN Dip Buy Analysis | |||
AMZN YTD Stock Return Of -5.8% Outperforms AAPL by 13% and Underperforms BABA by -41% | Return | ||
ARTICLES | |||
Selling Your Business? Talk To This Guy | September 5th, 2025 | ||
Which Is A Better Pick: Amazon Or Meta? | September 2nd, 2025 | ||
What’s Behind The 175% Rise In Amazon’s Stock? | August 31st, 2025 | ||
How Amazon Stock Falls By 50%? | August 8th, 2025 | ||
AMZN Dropped 8.3% In A Day. Have You Fully Evaluated The Risk? | August 2nd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AMZN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.0% | -20.0% | -20.0% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.8% | -6.8% | -7.9% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -8.1% | -8.1% | -11.7% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -20.0% | -20.0% | -20.0% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.5% | -1.5% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.8% | -6.8% | -7.9% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -8.1% | -8.1% | -11.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Amazon.com
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 190.46 |
Mkt Cap | 1,565.1 |
Rev LTM | 539,332 |
Op Inc LTM | 102,359 |
FCF LTM | 42,682 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 45,031 |
CFO LTM | 114,851 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 104,268 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 5.6% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
Rev Chg Q | 7.3% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
Op Mgn LTM | 13.0% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 16.6% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 1,565.1 |
P/S | 2.3 |
P/EBIT | 27.1 |
P/E | 34.8 |
P/CFO | 24.8 |
Total Yield | 3.2% |
Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
D/E | 0.1 |
Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 1.9% |
3M Rtn | 16.6% |
6M Rtn | 34.3% |
12M Rtn | 28.8% |
3Y Rtn | 134.7% |
1M Excs Rtn | 1.4% |
3M Excs Rtn | 10.2% |
6M Excs Rtn | 8.1% |
12M Excs Rtn | 13.8% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 46.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
North America | 352,828 | 315,880 | |||
International | 131,200 | 118,007 | |||
Amazon Web Services (AWS) | 90,757 | 80,096 | 62,202 | 45,370 | 35,026 |
Advertising services | 31,160 | 19,773 | |||
Online stores | 222,075 | 197,346 | 141,247 | ||
Other | 2,176 | 1,680 | 14,085 | ||
Physical stores | 17,075 | 16,227 | 17,192 | ||
Subscription services | 31,768 | 25,207 | 19,210 | ||
Third-party seller services | 103,366 | 80,461 | 53,762 | ||
Total | 574,785 | 513,983 | 469,822 | 386,064 | 280,522 |
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Amazon Web Services (AWS) | 24,631 | 22,841 | |||
North America | 14,877 | -2,847 | |||
International | -2,656 | -7,746 | |||
Total | 36,852 | 12,248 |
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
North America | 196,029 | 185,268 | |||
Corporate | 153,574 | 124,250 | |||
Amazon Web Services (AWS) | 108,533 | 88,491 | |||
International | 69,718 | 64,666 | |||
Total | 527,854 | 462,675 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
7/31/2025 | -8.3% | -4.7% | -2.2% |
5/1/2025 | -0.1% | 1.0% | 8.6% |
2/6/2025 | -4.1% | -3.5% | -18.5% |
10/31/2024 | 6.2% | 12.7% | 13.0% |
8/1/2024 | -8.8% | -9.9% | -3.0% |
4/30/2024 | 2.3% | 7.9% | 2.5% |
2/1/2024 | 7.9% | 6.6% | 11.5% |
10/26/2023 | 6.8% | 15.5% | 23.6% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 9 | 12 | 11 |
# Negative | 15 | 12 | 13 |
Median Positive | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.6% |
Median Negative | -5.4% | -5.0% | -7.0% |
Max Positive | 13.5% | 16.6% | 23.6% |
Max Negative | -14.0% | -19.5% | -20.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2072025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2022024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2032023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 10292021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Herrington Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | 9042025 | Sell | 223.49 | 2,500 | 558,725 | 115,769,384 | Form |
1 | Herrington Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | 8052025 | Sell | 217.00 | 2,500 | 542,500 | 111,114,850 | Form |
2 | BEZOS JEFFREY P | Executive Chair | 7252025 | Sell | 228.48 | 1,510,956 | 345,219,752 | 202,527,898,092 | Form |
3 | BEZOS JEFFREY P | Executive Chair | 7232025 | Sell | 227.55 | 2,602,336 | 592,164,680 | 202,963,011,727 | Form |
4 | BEZOS JEFFREY P | Executive Chair | 7172025 | Sell | 227.02 | 733,195 | 166,449,709 | 203,079,724,832 | Form |
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