Amazon.com (AMZN)
Market Price (12/10/2025): $227.83 | Market Cap: $2.4 TrilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Amazon.com (AMZN)
Market Price (12/10/2025): $227.83Market Cap: $2.4 TrilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Large capital expenditures Over $100 billion expected in 2025, potentially straining free cash flow. | High valuation (P/FCF) P/FCF is 173.2x, significantly above the S&P 500 at 20.5x. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 121 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil | Opportunity cost in sector FCF/Rev LTM of 2.0% is less attractive than many Consumer Discretionary peers. | Increased e-commerce competition Ultra-low-cost platforms and social commerce like TikTok Shop pose threats. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% | Recent stock underperformance 1-year return of 0.8% trailed peers (27%) and S&P 500 (16%). | |
| AWS growth & AI investment AWS revenue reached $90,757M in 2024, propelled by strong AI demand. | ||
| Expanding advertising business Strong demand for sponsored placements is boosting revenue. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AMZN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Information regarding specific key points for Amazon.com (AMZN) stock movement by -0.5% for the future period from August 31, 2025, to December 10, 2025, is not available.
1. Future stock market performance and the precise drivers of specific percentage movements cannot be predicted.
2. Details on market-moving news or events for Amazon.com within the specified future timeframe are not accessible.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMZN Return | 76% | 2% | -50% | 81% | 44% | 4% | 147% |
| Peers Return | 39% | 31% | -37% | 78% | 54% | 27% | 302% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMZN Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 25% | 83% | 75% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 65% | 35% | 70% | 72% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMZN Max Drawdown | -9% | -9% | -51% | -1% | -5% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -8% | -48% | -3% | -3% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, GOOGL, WMT, META, NFLX. See AMZN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/9/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMZN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 128.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 470 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 407 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -65.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 187.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AAPL, MSFT, WMT, W, BGO
In The Past
Amazon.com's stock fell -56.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/8/2021. A -56.1% loss requires a 128.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Amazon.com Earnings Notes | |||
| What Could Go Wrong With Amazon.com Stock? | |||
| What Could Send Amazon.com Stock Soaring | |||
| With Amazon.com Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return | ||
| Amazon.com Stock Slides -11% With A 5-Day Losing Spree | Notification | ||
| Should You Buy Amazon.com Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| What Could Light a Fire Under Amazon.com Stock | |||
| Amazon Stock On The Edge: 3 Threats You Need to Know | |||
| Amazon.com vs Royal Caribbean: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Better Bet Than AMZN Stock: Pay Less Than Amazon.com To Get More From VST, BMRN | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Why Amazon.com Stock May Drop Soon | November 27th, 2025 | ||
| The Next Big Rally in Amazon.com Stock Could Start Like This | November 19th, 2025 | ||
| How Does Amazon.com Stock Compare With Peers? | November 19th, 2025 | ||
| What’s The Downside Risk For Amazon Stock? | November 19th, 2025 | ||
| Ollie’s Bargain Outlet vs Amazon.com: Which Is the Stronger Buy Today? | November 19th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AMZN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.9% | -2.9% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.7% | 9.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.1% | 6.1% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.9% | -2.9% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.7% | 9.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.1% | 6.1% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Amazon.com
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 272.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 2,039.0 |
| Rev LTM | 339,644 |
| Op Inc LTM | 79,042 |
| FCF LTM | 30,052 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 33,360 |
| CFO LTM | 114,356 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 91,245 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 27.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 30.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 19.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2,039.0 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| P/EBIT | 27.4 |
| P/E | 34.5 |
| P/CFO | 19.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 179.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 104.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 352,828 | ||||
| International | 131,200 | ||||
| Amazon Web Services (AWS) | 90,757 | 80,096 | 62,202 | 45,370 | 35,026 |
| Advertising services | 37,739 | 31,160 | 19,773 | ||
| Online stores | 220,004 | 222,075 | 197,346 | 141,247 | |
| Other | 4,247 | 2,176 | 1,680 | 14,085 | |
| Physical stores | 18,963 | 17,075 | 16,227 | 17,192 | |
| Subscription services | 35,218 | 31,768 | 25,207 | 19,210 | |
| Third-party seller services | 117,716 | 103,366 | 80,461 | 53,762 | |
| Total | 574,785 | 513,983 | 469,822 | 386,064 | 280,522 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon Web Services (AWS) | 24,631 | ||||
| North America | 14,877 | ||||
| International | -2,656 | ||||
| Total | 36,852 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 196,029 | ||||
| Corporate | 153,574 | ||||
| Amazon Web Services (AWS) | 108,533 | ||||
| International | 69,718 | ||||
| Total | 527,854 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 9.6% | 9.1% | 5.2% |
| 7/31/2025 | -8.3% | -4.7% | -2.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.1% | 1.0% | 8.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | -4.1% | -3.5% | -18.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.2% | 12.7% | 13.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | -8.8% | -9.9% | -3.0% |
| 4/30/2024 | 2.3% | 7.9% | 2.5% |
| 2/1/2024 | 7.9% | 6.6% | 11.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.9% |
| Median Negative | -6.1% | -5.3% | -7.1% |
| Max Positive | 13.5% | 16.6% | 23.6% |
| Max Negative | -14.0% | -19.5% | -20.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2022024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
