Allison Transmission (ALSN)
Market Price (10/18/2025): $80.9 | Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Allison Transmission (ALSN)
Market Price (10/18/2025): $80.9Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.1%, FCF Yield is 9.6% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.2% |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31% | ||
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.1%, FCF Yield is 9.6% |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 33% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -13% |
Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.2% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
ALSN Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
ALSN Return | -9% | -14% | 17% | 42% | 88% | -24% | 81% |
Peers Return | 9% | 25% | -19% | 15% | -24% | 9% | 5% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
ALSN Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 83% | 22% | |
Peers Win Rate | 62% | 57% | 35% | 47% | 40% | 49% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
ALSN Max Drawdown | -44% | -23% | -9% | -0% | -4% | -26% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -10% | -33% | -6% | -28% | -23% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BWA, GNTX, LEA, VC, GT. See ALSN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | ALSN | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -28.5% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 39.9% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 463 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -45.5% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 83.6% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 1060 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -23.6% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 1631 days | 120 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Allison Transmission's stock fell -28.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/14/2021. A -28.5% loss requires a 39.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ALSN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.3% | -19.3% | -19.3% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.3% | -2.3% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.9% | -7.9% | -7.9% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -6.4% | -6.4% | -11.7% |
03312020 | ALSN | Allison Transmission | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.9% | 27.6% | -9.6% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ANF | Abercrombie & Fitch | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.3% | -19.3% | -19.3% |
09302025 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.3% | -2.3% | -6.2% |
09302025 | CHH | Choice Hotels International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.9% | -7.9% | -7.9% |
09302025 | VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -6.1% |
09302025 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -6.4% | -6.4% | -11.7% |
03312020 | ALSN | Allison Transmission | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.9% | 27.6% | -9.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Allison Transmission
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 61.73 |
Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
Rev LTM | 8,914 |
Op Inc LTM | 798 |
FCF LTM | 442 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 432 |
CFO LTM | 688 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 741 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | -3.0% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
Rev Chg Q | -2.3% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.6% |
Op Mgn LTM | 9.1% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 11.7% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 7.9% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 5.5 |
P/S | 0.7 |
P/EBIT | 7.9 |
P/E | 11.0 |
P/CFO | 6.3 |
Total Yield | 10.5% |
Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
D/E | 0.4 |
Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | -8.2% |
3M Rtn | 0.3% |
6M Rtn | 24.5% |
12M Rtn | -6.9% |
3Y Rtn | 2.6% |
1M Excs Rtn | -10.1% |
3M Excs Rtn | -6.0% |
6M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
12M Excs Rtn | -20.2% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -80.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
8/4/2025 | -1.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
5/1/2025 | 4.1% | 5.7% | 9.5% |
2/11/2025 | -12.5% | -9.1% | -17.8% |
10/29/2024 | 7.9% | 9.5% | 18.7% |
7/25/2024 | 4.0% | 3.4% | 7.6% |
4/25/2024 | -7.2% | -7.0% | -5.2% |
2/13/2024 | 13.9% | 15.2% | 22.3% |
10/25/2023 | -10.4% | -9.9% | -4.9% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 13 | 15 | 15 |
# Negative | 11 | 9 | 9 |
Median Positive | 5.1% | 3.4% | 8.1% |
Median Negative | -6.3% | -6.3% | -5.2% |
Max Positive | 13.9% | 15.2% | 22.3% |
Max Negative | -12.5% | -9.9% | -28.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 10282021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Bohley G Frederick | Chief Operating Officer | 8152025 | Buy | 89.50 | 3,000 | 268,500 | 8,867,113 | Form |
1 | Scroggins Eric C. | VP, Gen. Counsel & Assist. Sec | 5092025 | Sell | 98.05 | 5,358 | 525,352 | 1,340,049 | Form |
2 | Coll John | SVP, Global MSS | 4032025 | Sell | 95.33 | 1,788 | 170,450 | 1,466,938 | Form |
3 | Milburn Ryan A. | VP, Engr. & Tech Dev. | 3182025 | Sell | 96.20 | 4,546 | 437,325 | 1,360,076 | Form |
4 | Milburn Ryan A. | VP, Engr. & Tech Dev. | 2272025 | Sell | 98.54 | 662 | 65,233 | 1,471,301 | Form |
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