Tearsheet

Allison Transmission (ALSN)


Market Price (12/16/2025): $99.42 | Market Cap: $8.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment

Allison Transmission (ALSN)


Market Price (12/16/2025): $99.42
Market Cap: $8.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 8.8%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -16%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 32%
 
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Autonomous Trucks, Freight Technology, Show more.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 8.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 32%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Autonomous Trucks, Freight Technology, Show more.
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -16%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ALSN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**1. Regulatory approvals and progress on Dana acquisition**

The completion of regulatory approvals for Allison Transmission's acquisition of Dana's Off-Highway business, noted prior to November 10, 2025, likely boosted investor confidence. This strategic move, initially announced in August 2025, is set to expand Allison's market presence and diversify its offerings. **2. Consistent demand in key end markets**

Allison Transmission continued to experience strong demand across its key segments. For instance, the company's Q2 2025 earnings call in early August highlighted a 47% year-over-year increase in net sales within the defense end market and record quarterly net sales in the Outside North America On-Highway market. **3. Positive financial outlook and shareholder returns**

Despite a third-quarter 2025 earnings miss reported in late October, Allison Transmission had previously provided a strong outlook for its full-year 2025 financial performance. This outlook projected record net sales and increased profitability, driven by anticipated price increases and sustained market demand. Additionally, the company continued to return cash to shareholders by declaring a quarterly dividend in November 2025. **4. Strategic global expansion**

Allison Transmission expanded its global footprint through strategic initiatives during this period. In October 2025, the company announced an expansion of its worldwide network of authorized partners to enhance support for cross-drive transmissions. Further demonstrating its growth strategy, Allison Transmission announced in December 2025 significant expansion and investment in India, focusing on strategic defense, mining, and export partnerships. **5. Overall positive market sentiment for recent stock performance**

The stock demonstrated positive momentum in the latter part of 2025. Reports indicated an increase of 8.94% in the past month and a 21.39% rise over a one-month period (relative to the publication dates of the sources). Furthermore, the stock was noted to be "Up 7% Since Last Earnings Report" as of late November 2025, suggesting a strong recovery from any negative news.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ALSN Return-9%-14%17%42%88%-7%128%
Peers Return18%20%-3%17%17%52%185%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ALSN Win Rate50%50%50%67%83%33% 
Peers Win Rate60%63%38%48%58%65% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ALSN Max Drawdown-44%-23%-9%-0%-4%-26% 
Peers Max Drawdown-50%-3%-28%-13%-15%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CMI, BWA, ETN, DAN, CAT. See ALSN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/15/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventALSNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven39.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven463 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven83.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1060 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-23.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven30.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1631 days120 days

Compare to BWA, LEA, GNTX, VC, GT


In The Past

Allison Transmission's stock fell -28.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/14/2021. A -28.5% loss requires a 39.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Allison Transmission (ALSN)

Better Bets than Allison Transmission (ALSN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ALSN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%
ALSN_3312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312020ALSNAllison TransmissionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.9%27.6%-9.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%
ALSN_3312020_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03312020ALSNAllison TransmissionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.9%27.6%-9.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Allison Transmission

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ALSNCMIBWAETNDANCATMedian
NameAllison .Cummins BorgWarn.Eaton Dana Caterpil. 
Mkt Price99.42517.2544.86333.2122.56589.76216.31
Mkt Cap8.471.49.6129.62.9276.440.5
Rev LTM3,06933,58114,18326,63310,52864,67120,408
Op Inc LTM9443,7541,3175,04953311,4152,536
FCF LTM6282,2781,2613,322737,5601,770
FCF 3Y Avg6471,5948163,114678,6161,205
CFO LTM8043,5091,7114,10440811,5412,610
CFO 3Y Avg8012,7861,4793,88145811,9362,132

Growth & Margins

ALSNCMIBWAETNDANCATMedian
NameAllison .Cummins BorgWarn.Eaton Dana Caterpil. 
Rev Chg LTM-4.2%-1.8%0.1%8.2%14.8%-1.5%-0.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.6%9.4%7.8%9.7%2.9%4.9%6.3%
Rev Chg Q-15.9%-1.6%4.1%10.1%1.1%9.5%2.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-4.1%-0.4%1.0%2.5%0.2%2.4%0.6%
Op Mgn LTM30.8%11.2%9.3%19.0%5.1%17.7%14.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg30.4%10.4%9.1%17.8%3.5%18.9%14.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.6%-0.6%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM26.2%10.4%12.1%15.4%3.9%17.8%13.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg26.0%8.3%10.5%15.8%4.5%18.2%13.1%
FCF/Rev LTM20.5%6.8%8.9%12.5%0.7%11.7%10.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg21.0%4.8%5.8%12.6%0.7%13.1%9.2%

Valuation

ALSNCMIBWAETNDANCATMedian
NameAllison .Cummins BorgWarn.Eaton Dana Caterpil. 
Mkt Cap8.471.49.6129.62.9276.440.5
P/S2.31.70.75.50.24.32.0
P/EBIT7.514.017.129.05.818.315.5
P/E10.221.870.137.146.829.833.4
P/CFO8.916.65.535.56.323.912.7
Total Yield10.1%6.3%2.1%3.0%4.4%4.3%4.3%
Dividend Yield0.3%1.8%0.6%0.3%2.2%1.0%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.6%3.8%9.2%2.7%3.5%4.9%4.3%
D/E0.30.10.40.11.40.20.3
Net D/E0.20.10.20.11.20.20.2

Returns

ALSNCMIBWAETNDANCATMedian
NameAllison .Cummins BorgWarn.Eaton Dana Caterpil. 
1M Rtn21.6%11.8%0.5%-5.4%8.4%6.4%7.4%
3M Rtn13.7%25.4%2.7%-11.0%8.6%35.7%11.2%
6M Rtn4.9%62.0%35.5%-0.9%29.4%63.8%32.5%
12M Rtn-13.7%43.6%33.7%-5.2%82.2%57.3%38.6%
3Y Rtn145.0%135.8%31.0%125.2%58.3%166.7%130.5%
1M Excs Rtn20.0%9.9%-2.0%-7.1%5.8%5.4%5.6%
3M Excs Rtn10.6%21.9%0.2%-13.2%7.2%31.0%8.9%
6M Excs Rtn-8.1%49.0%22.6%-13.9%16.5%50.8%19.5%
12M Excs Rtn-24.1%30.5%17.7%-18.8%65.7%41.9%24.1%
3Y Excs Rtn68.6%56.1%-41.6%47.1%-21.7%96.8%51.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Design, manufacture and distribution of vehicle propulsion solutions3,0352,7692,4022,0812,698
Total3,0352,7692,4022,0812,698


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,293,476
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520252.1%
Average Daily Volume985,543
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.34
Basic Shares Quantity84,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20252.4%-1.0%9.8%
8/4/2025-1.8%0.3%0.3%
5/1/20254.1%5.7%9.5%
2/11/2025-12.5%-9.1%-17.8%
10/29/20247.9%9.5%18.7%
7/25/20244.0%3.4%7.6%
4/25/2024-7.2%-7.0%-5.2%
2/13/202413.9%15.2%22.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141515
# Negative1099
Median Positive4.6%3.4%9.5%
Median Negative-5.7%-6.3%-5.2%
Max Positive13.9%15.2%22.3%
Max Negative-12.5%-9.9%-28.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025502202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024213202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022216202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021