Allegiant Travel (ALGT)
Market Price (11/1/2025): $62.2 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Allegiant Travel (ALGT)
Market Price (11/1/2025): $62.2Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -88% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 106% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -43% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -30% | |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -43% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.1% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -71%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -88% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 106% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -30% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
ALGT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why Allegiant Travel (ALGT) stock moved by 20.4% from approximately July 31, 2025, to November 1, 2025:
1. Strong Q2 2025 Operating Margins and Fleet Modernization. Allegiant Travel reported robust Q2 2025 operating margins that surpassed previous guidance, coupled with a strategic fleet update that included the delivery of five new 737 MAX jets. This indicated improved operational efficiency and a commitment to cost reduction and modernization, fostering a positive sentiment among investors.
2. Encouraging July 2025 Traffic Results. The company's preliminary passenger traffic results for July 2025, released on August 29, 2025, showed a 10.3% year-over-year increase in scheduled traffic (revenue passenger miles) and a 10.1% rise in total system passengers, indicating strong demand for its leisure-focused travel services.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALGT Return | 9% | -1% | -64% | 23% | 16% | -35% | -60% |
| Peers Return | -31% | -3% | -33% | 44% | 68% | -14% | -6% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALGT Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 25% | 50% | 50% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 42% | 45% | 50% | 68% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALGT Max Drawdown | -62% | -14% | -66% | -16% | -55% | -57% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -69% | -12% | -41% | -18% | -11% | -38% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SKYW, JBLU, DAL, UAL, LUV. See ALGT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/31/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ALGT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 371.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 168.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 210 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -44.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 357 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 1480 days |
Compare to SKYW, JBLU, DAL, UAL, LUV
In The Past
Allegiant Travel's stock fell -78.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -78.8% loss requires a 371.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ALGT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.8% | -5.8% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.8% |
| 09302023 | ALGT | Allegiant Travel | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.4% | -29.2% | -51.3% |
| 05312022 | ALGT | Allegiant Travel | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -46.3% | -34.8% | -57.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.8% | -5.8% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.8% |
| 09302023 | ALGT | Allegiant Travel | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.4% | -29.2% | -51.3% |
| 05312022 | ALGT | Allegiant Travel | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -46.3% | -34.8% | -57.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Allegiant Travel
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 59.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.0 |
| Rev LTM | 18,323 |
| Op Inc LTM | 450 |
| FCF LTM | 178 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 126 |
| CFO LTM | 1,411 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,312 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.0 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 5.6 |
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/CFO | 4.0 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 31.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -44.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airline | 2,507 | 2,302 | 1,708 | 977 | 1,822 |
| Sunseeker | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Other non- airline | 12 | 16 | |||
| Total | 2,510 | 2,302 | 1,708 | 990 | 1,841 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airline | 251 | 137 | 271 | -105 | 389 |
| Sunseeker | -30 | -45 | -8 | -146 | -7 |
| Other non- airline | -31 | -18 | |||
| Total | 221 | 92 | 263 | -281 | 364 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airline | 4,201 | 4,047 | 3,215 | 2,830 | |
| Sunseeker | 656 | 464 | 37 | 133 | |
| Other non- airline | 8 | 47 | |||
| Total | 4,857 | 4,511 | 3,259 | 3,011 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/4/2025 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 35.5% |
| 5/6/2025 | 3.7% | 18.1% | 11.1% |
| 2/4/2025 | -15.3% | -13.6% | -36.7% |
| 10/30/2024 | 3.3% | 17.3% | 30.0% |
| 7/31/2024 | -11.1% | -30.2% | -24.3% |
| 5/7/2024 | -1.5% | 10.0% | -0.3% |
| 2/5/2024 | 7.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% |
| 11/2/2023 | -2.3% | -7.5% | 9.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 12 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 7.8% | 19.1% |
| Median Negative | -2.4% | -7.8% | -6.2% |
| Max Positive | 21.2% | 18.1% | 46.1% |
| Max Negative | -15.3% | -30.2% | -36.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 10282021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Morgan Sandra Douglass | 10302025 | Sell | 65.00 | 350 | 22,750 | 711,750 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |