Tearsheet

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)


Market Price (12/8/2025): $23.12 | Market Cap: $3.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Apparel Retail

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)


Market Price (12/8/2025): $23.12
Market Cap: $3.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Apparel Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 9.2%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.5%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 114%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -48%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -9.5%
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 132%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6%
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 15%, Dividend Yield is 2.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 11%, FCF Yield is 9.2%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -48%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Eco-friendly Products, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.5%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -9.5%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 114%
7 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 132%
8 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AEO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat and Raised Outlook. American Eagle Outfitters reported third-quarter fiscal 2025 results that significantly exceeded analyst expectations for both earnings per share and revenue. The company also substantially raised its outlook for the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year 2025, projecting strong comparable sales growth and higher operating income, which indicated robust business momentum and boosted investor confidence.

2. Exceptional Performance of Aerie and OFFLINE Brands. The Aerie brand continued its impressive growth, reporting an 11% increase in comparable sales for Q3 2025. The OFFLINE activewear line also continued to expand its market share, significantly contributing to the company's overall revenue growth and positive market sentiment.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AEO Return39%29%-43%55%-19%51%91%
Peers Return8%33%-17%68%33%11%193%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AEO Win Rate50%58%25%67%33%40% 
Peers Win Rate47%62%42%57%50%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AEO Max Drawdown-54%-1%-61%-27%-21%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-3%-44%-21%-19%-42% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ANF, URBN, VSCO, BKE, GES. See AEO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAEOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-74.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven289.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-55.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven122.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven147 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-51.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven105.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven453 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-79.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven383.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4530 days1480 days

Compare to URBN, ANF, LB, TJX, ROST


In The Past

American Eagle Outfitters's stock fell -74.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/23/2021. A -74.3% loss requires a 289.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)

Better Bets than American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AEO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
8.2%8.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.8%-1.8%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.8%8.8%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.3%5.3%-1.6%
AEO_3312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312025AEOAmerican Eagle OutfittersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
52.0%105.3%-18.9%
AEO_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312020AEOAmerican Eagle OutfittersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
76.0%272.2%-15.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
8.2%8.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.8%-1.8%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.8%8.8%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.3%5.3%-1.6%
AEO_3312025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312025AEOAmerican Eagle OutfittersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
52.0%105.3%-18.9%
AEO_3312020_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG03312020AEOAmerican Eagle OutfittersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
76.0%272.2%-15.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for American Eagle Outfitters

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AEOANFURBNVSCOBKEGESMedian
NameAmerican.Abercrom.Urban Ou.Victoria.Buckle Guess  
Mkt Price23.0994.8775.6949.0555.8316.9952.44
Mkt Cap3.94.56.83.92.80.93.9
Rev LTM5,2675,1005,8326,2651,2513,0925,183
Op Inc LTM301744557282251140291
FCF LTM15234539924221113226
FCF 3Y Avg293390285219214126252
CFO LTM410563590432254101421
CFO 3Y Avg514578479436253207458

Growth & Margins

AEOANFURBNVSCOBKEGESMedian
NameAmerican.Abercrom.Urban Ou.Victoria.Buckle Guess  
Rev Chg LTM-2.7%9.3%9.6%2.3%1.6%7.8%5.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.6%11.7%7.5%-1.8%-1.5%4.9%3.3%
Rev Chg Q-0.6%6.6%11.3%3.0%8.3%5.5%6.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.1%1.5%2.7%0.7%1.9%1.3%1.4%
Op Mgn LTM5.7%14.6%9.5%4.5%20.0%4.5%7.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.7%11.6%7.6%4.9%21.1%6.9%7.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%0.4%0.3%-0.4%0.3%-0.6%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM7.8%11.0%10.1%6.9%20.3%3.3%8.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.9%12.8%8.9%7.0%20.0%7.3%9.4%
FCF/Rev LTM2.9%6.8%6.8%3.9%16.8%0.4%5.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.7%8.6%5.2%3.5%16.9%4.5%5.4%

Valuation

AEOANFURBNVSCOBKEGESMedian
NameAmerican.Abercrom.Urban Ou.Victoria.Buckle Guess  
Mkt Cap3.94.56.83.92.80.93.9
P/S0.30.81.10.21.80.20.5
P/EBIT5.55.111.05.39.18.36.9
P/E8.37.313.79.811.319.910.6
P/CFO4.07.011.03.49.06.16.6
Total Yield14.8%13.7%7.3%10.2%17.6%15.4%14.3%
Dividend Yield2.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%10.4%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.9%9.8%6.5%15.6%11.2%12.3%11.5%
D/E1.20.30.21.90.22.60.7
Net D/E1.10.10.11.80.02.30.6

Returns

AEOANFURBNVSCOBKEGESMedian
NameAmerican.Abercrom.Urban Ou.Victoria.Buckle Guess  
1M Rtn35.0%32.6%18.5%39.9%-2.6%0.2%25.5%
3M Rtn23.8%-0.5%7.0%86.9%-5.2%2.1%4.5%
6M Rtn132.0%14.3%8.1%121.3%30.7%46.8%38.8%
12M Rtn33.6%-37.3%51.4%2.1%14.0%11.8%12.9%
3Y Rtn54.6%292.5%166.4%6.2%58.1%3.1%56.3%
1M Excs Rtn35.0%33.7%16.3%30.0%-4.4%-1.0%23.1%
3M Excs Rtn21.3%-6.3%-2.1%85.5%-11.1%-3.9%-3.0%
6M Excs Rtn117.5%-0.2%-6.4%106.8%16.2%32.3%24.3%
12M Excs Rtn7.0%-52.3%35.7%3.5%-0.3%-6.0%1.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-9.5%227.2%93.2%-61.8%-2.5%-60.1%-6.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
American Eagle3,3623,2633,5562,7343,480
Aerie1,6701,5071,376990801
Other489469823528
Intersegment Elimination-259-249-3  
Total5,2624,9905,0113,7594,308


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
American Eagle60054179693484
Aerie2761672146047
Intersegment Elimination00   
Other-36-57-16-425-298
Impairment, restructuring and other charges-153-22-12  
Unallocated corporate expenses-464-383-391  
Total223247591-271233


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity22,295,957
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-3.1%
Average Daily Volume5,679,349
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.93
Basic Shares Quantity170,756,000
Short % of Basic Shares13.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
12/2/202515.1%  
9/3/202538.0%41.3%24.4%
5/29/2025-2.0%-9.3%-14.0%
3/12/2025-4.1%4.0%-6.7%
12/4/2024-14.3%-14.1%-16.2%
8/29/2024-4.2%-11.3%1.2%
5/29/2024-7.6%-9.8%-17.0%
3/7/2024-1.9%-1.0%4.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11911
# Negative141614
Median Positive2.5%6.7%8.8%
Median Negative-4.2%-9.3%-14.0%
Max Positive38.0%41.3%26.3%
Max Negative-14.3%-21.8%-20.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
7312025909202510-Q 8/2/2025
4302025605202510-Q 5/3/2025
1312025320202510-K 2/1/2025
103120241204202410-Q 11/2/2024
7312024829202410-Q 8/3/2024
4302024530202410-Q 5/4/2024
1312024315202410-K 2/3/2024
103120231121202310-Q 10/28/2023
7312023906202310-Q 7/29/2023
4302023525202310-Q 4/29/2023
1312023313202310-K 1/28/2023
103120221123202210-Q 10/29/2022
7312022907202210-Q 7/30/2022
4302022526202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022314202210-K 1/29/2022
103120211123202110-Q 10/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Spiegel Noel Joseph 9092025Sell18.1240,000724,856 Form
1PAGE JANICE E 9092025Sell18.0426,869484,7171,630,509Form
2MCMILLAN CARY D 9092025Sell18.119,002163,071 Form
3Foyle Jennifer M.Global Brand President-aerie9092025Sell18.1454,950996,7934,010,881Form
4MCMILLAN CARY D 1172025Sell16.022,99948,044 Form