Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
Market Price (11/7/2025): $252.75 | Market Cap: $102.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
Market Price (11/7/2025): $252.75Market Cap: $102.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -64% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 4.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.2 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, Dividend Yield is 2.4% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, CFO LTM is 4.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 20% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -64% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
ADP Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADP Return | 6% | 43% | -1% | -0% | 28% | -12% | 67% |
| Peers Return | 39% | 1% | -24% | 44% | -6% | 10% | 59% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADP Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 43% | 35% | 50% | 47% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADP Max Drawdown | -36% | -9% | -20% | -12% | -0% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -21% | -31% | -5% | -18% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WDAY, PAYX, BR, STNE, GLXG. See ADP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/6/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 453 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 351 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 857 days | 1480 days |
Compare to WDAY, PAYX, BR, STNE, GLXG
In The Past
Automatic Data Processing's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/2/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ADP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.2% | -9.2% | -9.2% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -1.6% | -1.6% | -8.2% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -8.4% | -8.4% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.8% |
| 12312022 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -6.9% | -0.2% | -12.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.2% | -9.2% | -9.2% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -1.6% | -1.6% | -8.2% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.9% | -1.9% | -1.9% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -8.4% | -8.4% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.8% |
| 12312022 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -6.9% | -0.2% | -12.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Automatic Data Processing
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 164.62 |
| Mkt Cap | 40.3 |
| Rev LTM | 8,959 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,208 |
| FCF LTM | 1,709 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,670 |
| CFO LTM | 1,901 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,835 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 40.3 |
| P/S | 4.9 |
| P/EBIT | 17.7 |
| P/E | 24.7 |
| P/CFO | 21.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -17.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -15.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -13.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 64.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -22.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -33.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -26.2% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -6.6% | -7.3% | |
| 7/30/2025 | 0.7% | -3.0% | -1.8% |
| 4/30/2025 | 1.6% | 2.6% | 9.6% |
| 1/29/2025 | 0.8% | 2.1% | 4.4% |
| 10/30/2024 | 1.7% | 1.1% | 6.6% |
| 7/31/2024 | 1.9% | 0.7% | 5.8% |
| 5/1/2024 | 2.2% | 1.3% | -0.4% |
| 1/31/2024 | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 1.9% | 2.5% | 6.2% |
| Median Negative | -4.7% | -5.2% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 7.4% | 14.0% | 19.2% |
| Max Negative | -9.2% | -9.2% | -11.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1302025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2012024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5012023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1312022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Rodriguez Carlos A | 9152025 | Sell | 298.57 | 72 | 21,497 | 7,550,795 | Form | |
| 1 | D'Ambrosio Christopher | Corp. VP | 9112025 | Sell | 296.90 | 597 | 177,249 | 3,129,691 | Form |
| 2 | Bonarti Michael A | Corporate Vice President | 9112025 | Sell | 298.43 | 8,728 | 2,604,697 | 24,032,995 | Form |
| 3 | Rodriguez Carlos A | 9082025 | Sell | 302.45 | 259 | 78,335 | 11,238,642 | Form | |
| 4 | Michaud Brian L. | Corp VP | 4022025 | Sell | 305.38 | 1,500 | 458,070 | 3,686,768 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |