ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)
Market Price (11/27/2025): $25.12 | Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Pharmaceuticals
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD)
Market Price (11/27/2025): $25.12Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Pharmaceuticals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -4.6% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 44x |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -19% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Biopharmaceutical R&D, and Targeted Therapies. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -37%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -4.6% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 44x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ACAD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) experienced notable stock movements between July 31, 2025, and November 27, 2025, influenced by a mix of positive financial results, clinical trial outcomes, and updated guidance. While the exact closing price for July 31, 2025, is not available, several key events explain significant shifts in the company's stock value during this period, contributing to the approximate 4.1% movement.
1. Positive First Half 2025 Financial Performance and Increased NUPLAZID Guidance: ACADIA Pharmaceuticals demonstrated robust financial performance in the first half of 2025, reporting a notable increase in revenue to $508.88 million, up from $447.79 million in the prior year. This positive trajectory was accompanied by an upward revision of revenue forecasts, with NUPLAZID sales specifically projected to reach between $665 million and $690 million for the full year 2025. These strong initial results and optimistic outlook likely provided an early positive impetus for the stock.
2. Phase 3 Prader-Willi Syndrome Trial Failure: On September 24, 2025, ACADIA announced that its Phase 3 Compass Prader-Willi syndrome trial, evaluating intranasal carbetocin (ACP-101) for hyperphagia, failed to meet its primary endpoints. This significant clinical setback led to a sharp decline in the stock price, with shares falling by approximately 10% on September 25, 2025, as it ended the development of ACP-101 for this indication.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ACAD Return | 25% | -56% | -32% | 97% | -41% | 33% | -43% |
| Peers Return | 5% | 1% | -2% | -7% | -3% | 31% | 23% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ACAD Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 33% | 67% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 25% | 46% | 54% | 52% | 46% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ACAD Max Drawdown | -26% | -70% | -44% | 0% | -54% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -8% | -23% | -32% | -18% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACT, ARWR, ALKS, OGN, LHI. See ACAD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ACAD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 322.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -67.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 205.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 389 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -95.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2080.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1558 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ACT, ARWR, ALKS, OGN, LHI
In The Past
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals's stock fell -76.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/7/2021. A -76.3% loss requires a 322.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ACAD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -16.6% | -16.6% | -22.3% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -29.1% | -29.1% | -38.7% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.3% | -3.3% | -5.8% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.4% | 31.4% | -7.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -16.6% | -16.6% | -22.3% |
| 10312025 | DXCM | DexCom | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.8% |
| 10242025 | ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -29.1% | -29.1% | -38.7% |
| 10102025 | PBH | Prestige Consumer Healthcare | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.3% | -3.3% | -5.8% |
| 10032025 | REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.4% | 31.4% | -7.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 29.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| Rev LTM | 1,225 |
| Op Inc LTM | 226 |
| FCF LTM | 482 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 353 |
| CFO LTM | 541 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 397 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/EBIT | 6.4 |
| P/E | 8.7 |
| P/CFO | 9.1 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 9.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 64.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -4.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -3.0% | 8.1% | |
| 8/6/2025 | 2.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% |
| 5/7/2025 | 14.3% | 15.9% | 48.4% |
| 2/26/2025 | 1.8% | -4.8% | -9.5% |
| 11/6/2024 | 8.9% | 11.4% | 9.4% |
| 8/6/2024 | -19.5% | -16.6% | -14.0% |
| 5/8/2024 | -11.2% | -11.7% | -13.1% |
| 2/27/2024 | -9.9% | -9.7% | -31.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 6 | 7 |
| # Negative | 12 | 16 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 9.7% | 10.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.1% | -4.6% | -10.0% |
| Max Positive | 14.3% | 15.9% | 48.4% |
| Max Negative | -19.5% | -16.6% | -46.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | 9032025 | Sell | 25.98 | 1,600 | 41,560 | 659,305 | Form | |
| 1 | Schneyer Mark C. | EVP, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | 8192025 | Sell | 25.18 | 22,000 | 554,024 | 1,010,590 | Form |
| 2 | Brege Laura | 6052025 | Sell | 21.78 | 14,446 | 314,634 | 328,769 | Form | |
| 3 | Kihara James | PRINCIPAL ACCOUNTING OFFICER | 5192025 | Sell | 25.00 | 2,000 | 50,000 | 559,875 | Form |
| 4 | Schneyer Mark C. | EVP, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | 5192025 | Sell | 25.00 | 2,000 | 50,000 | 1,553,250 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |