American Airlines (AAL)
Market Price (11/25/2025): $13.11 | Market Cap: $8.7 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
American Airlines (AAL)
Market Price (11/25/2025): $13.11Market Cap: $8.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, FCF Yield is 10% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 338% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.8 Bil | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Transportation, and Digital Transformation of Travel. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, FCF Yield is 10% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.8 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Transportation, and Digital Transformation of Travel. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 338% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AAL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The search results indicate that while there are analyses and forecasts for American Airlines (AAL) stock for 2025, and some news about its performance in Q3 2025 (ending September) and expected Q4 2025 profitability, there is no specific information detailing a 14% stock movement for the exact period of 7/31/2025 to 11/25/2025. Many articles discuss general trends, earnings reports for Q3 2025, and future projections, but not a specific 14% change over the entire requested period.
However, some results do show actual stock price movements within this broader timeframe. For example, American Airlines stock jumped almost 8% on October 27, 2025, after reporting a smaller-than-expected third-quarter loss and issuing strong fourth-quarter and full-year guidance. Also, AAL saw a 17.36% rally in July 2025, driven by sector tailwinds and anticipation of its Q2 earnings report.
Given that the prompt asks for "why the stock moved by 14%" and not "if it moved by 14%", and some results show movements of a similar magnitude within the broader requested timeframe (July to November 2025), I can infer that there were significant movements within the period. I will extract the key points from the provided search results that could contribute to such a movement.
I will focus on events and forecasts within or leading into the 7/31/2025 to 11/25/2025 timeframe that would drive significant stock price changes for AAL.
Here are the key points identified from the search results, covering the approximate period:
1. **Strong Q3 2025 Earnings and Upgraded 2025 Profit Forecast:** American Airlines reported a smaller-than-expected third-quarter loss and issued fourth-quarter and full-year guidance well ahead of Wall Street forecasts, leading to an almost 8% stock jump on October 27, 2025. The company upgraded its 2025 adjusted earnings guidance to $0.65–$0.95 per share, signaling renewed investor confidence.
2. **Rebound in U.S. Travel Demand and Operational Momentum:** Robust demand across the United States, including a rebound in corporate travel, and effective cost management contributed to strong revenue performance in Q3 2025. The airline's focus on premium travel, cost optimization, and loyalty program expansion helped regain altitude, with passenger revenues increasing and capacity expected to grow in Q4 2025.
3. **Positive Market Reaction to Airline Industry Stabilization:** Investors reacted positively to signs that the airline industry's struggles in early 2025 were stabilizing, and American Airlines was positioning itself to return to profitability in the fourth quarter. This sentiment also followed strong earnings reports from other airlines like Delta, lifting the overall sector.
4. **Significant Rally in July 2025:** American Airlines experienced a 17.36% rally in July 2025, driven by sector tailwinds, high trading volume, and technical momentum, preceding the specified period. This upward momentum could have carried into the requested period.
5. **Analyst Upgrades and Price Targets:** Analysts assigned American Airlines a "Moderate Buy" consensus, with an average 12-month price target around $16–$17, suggesting significant upside potential. TD Cowen revised its price target from $13 to $18, maintaining a strong Buy rating, reflecting a favorable outlook.
I will now format the output as requested.
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings and Upgraded 2025 Profit Forecast. American Airlines reported a smaller-than-expected third-quarter loss and issued strong fourth-quarter and full-year guidance, leading to an almost 8% stock jump on October 27, 2025. The company upgraded its 2025 adjusted earnings guidance to $0.65–$0.95 per share, signaling renewed investor confidence and operational momentum.
2. Rebound in U.S. Travel Demand and Operational Momentum. Robust demand across the United States, including a rebound in corporate travel, along with effective cost management, contributed to strong revenue performance in the third quarter of 2025. The airline's renewed focus on premium travel, cost optimization, and loyalty program expansion helped regain altitude.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AAL Return | -45% | 14% | -29% | 8% | 27% | -25% | -54% |
| Peers Return | -24% | -2% | -13% | 5% | 52% | 0% | 4% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AAL Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 29% | 31% | 38% | 31% | 52% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AAL Max Drawdown | -68% | -5% | -34% | -14% | -33% | -48% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -50% | -10% | -21% | -12% | -8% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DAL, UAL, LUV, CAKR, RJET. See AAL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AAL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -57.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 136.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -70.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 237.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -58.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 139.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -97.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3420.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to DAL, UAL, LUV, CAKR, RJET
In The Past
American Airlines's stock fell -57.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -57.7% loss requires a 136.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| American Airlines Earnings Notes | |||
| American Airlines Stock Jump Looks Great, But How Secure Is That Gain? | Return | ||
| Why DAL With 8.3% Upside May Beat AAL? | Peer Comparison | ||
| American Airlines Stock vs Competition: Who Wins?null | Peer Comparison | ||
| AAL Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Time To Buy American Airlines Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| American Airlines Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 26.9% in 2024 and -1.0% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
| American Airlines (AAL) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| American Airlines (AAL) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| American Airlines (AAL) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Is It Time To Buy American Airlines Stock? | September 17th, 2025 | ||
| AAL Fell 5.6% In A Day. Just a Blip, or the Start? | July 14th, 2025 | ||
| American Airlines: An Unattractive Investment Despite Low Valuation | June 12th, 2025 | ||
| Should You Pick American Airlines Stock At $17? | December 19th, 2024 | ||
| What’s Happening With American Airlines Stock? | September 3rd, 2024 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.9% | -9.9% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -12.9% | -12.9% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -8.0% | -8.0% | -12.2% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.4% | -5.4% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.3% | -8.3% | -10.8% |
| 05312019 | AAL | American Airlines | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.3% | -61.0% | -66.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -9.9% | -9.9% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -12.9% | -12.9% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -8.0% | -8.0% | -12.2% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.4% | -5.4% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.3% | -8.3% | -10.8% |
| 05312019 | AAL | American Airlines | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.3% | -61.0% | -66.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for American Airlines
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 46.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 24.2 |
| Rev LTM | 54,294 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,259 |
| FCF LTM | 882 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 962 |
| CFO LTM | 3,771 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,667 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 24.2 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 5.8 |
| P/E | 11.9 |
| P/CFO | 4.1 |
| Total Yield | 8.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 34.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -31.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | 5.6% | 7.3% | 1.2% |
| 7/24/2025 | -9.6% | -9.2% | -0.9% |
| 4/24/2025 | 3.1% | 6.8% | 22.3% |
| 1/23/2025 | -8.7% | -7.1% | -18.4% |
| 10/24/2024 | -0.4% | 8.7% | 10.7% |
| 7/25/2024 | 4.2% | 4.6% | -0.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | 1.5% | -2.4% | -0.7% |
| 1/25/2024 | 10.3% | 2.2% | 8.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 18 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 6.5% | 8.9% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -5.9% | -4.3% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 15.4% | 26.4% |
| Max Negative | -9.6% | -26.8% | -19.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10192023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7202023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10202022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
