American Airlines (AAL)
Market Price (4/4/2026): $10.8 | Market Cap: $7.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
American Airlines (AAL)
Market Price (4/4/2026): $10.8Market Cap: $7.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Transportation, and Digital Transformation of Travel. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -88% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 434% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 65x Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% Key risksAAL key risks include its [1] substantial debt load of approximately $36.8 billion, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Transportation, and Digital Transformation of Travel. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -88% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 434% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 65x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.4% |
| Key risksAAL key risks include its [1] substantial debt load of approximately $36.8 billion, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
American Airlines (AAL) stock has lost about 30% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Elevated Jet Fuel Costs Significantly Impacted Profitability and Earnings Outlook.
American Airlines updated its first-quarter 2026 guidance, reflecting a "meaningful" increase in assumed jet fuel prices to approximately $2.75 per gallon, which is expected to negatively impact the company by approximately $400 million. This rise in fuel costs is compressing margins and is a primary factor in the company now anticipating an adjusted loss per share toward the lower end of its prior guidance range of ($0.10) to ($0.50) for Q1 2026.
2. Disappointing Q4 2025 Earnings Miss Coupled with Continued Q1 2026 Loss Expectations.
American Airlines reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.16 on January 27, 2026, which missed analyst consensus estimates of $0.38. This shortfall was partly attributed to an estimated $325 million revenue loss resulting from a government shutdown. Following this, the initial guidance for Q1 2026 anticipated an adjusted loss per diluted share, further impacting investor sentiment despite a later narrowing of the expected loss.
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1. Elevated Jet Fuel Costs Significantly Impacted Profitability and Earnings Outlook.
American Airlines updated its first-quarter 2026 guidance, reflecting a "meaningful" increase in assumed jet fuel prices to approximately $2.75 per gallon, which is expected to negatively impact the company by approximately $400 million. This rise in fuel costs is compressing margins and is a primary factor in the company now anticipating an adjusted loss per share toward the lower end of its prior guidance range of ($0.10) to ($0.50) for Q1 2026.
2. Disappointing Q4 2025 Earnings Miss Coupled with Continued Q1 2026 Loss Expectations.
American Airlines reported fourth-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.16 on January 27, 2026, which missed analyst consensus estimates of $0.38. This shortfall was partly attributed to an estimated $325 million revenue loss resulting from a government shutdown. Following this, the initial guidance for Q1 2026 anticipated an adjusted loss per diluted share, further impacting investor sentiment despite a later narrowing of the expected loss.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -29.5% change in AAL stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -81.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.33 | 10.80 | -29.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 54,294 | 54,633 | 0.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.1% | 0.2% | -81.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.8 | 64.3 | 282.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 660 | 660 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -29.5% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAL | -29.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 49.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.6% | 53.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.9% change in AAL stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -80.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.24 | 10.80 | -3.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 54,250 | 54,633 | 0.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.0% | 0.2% | -80.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.1 | 64.3 | 391.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 660 | 660 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAL | -3.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 46.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 6.5% | 50.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.4% change in AAL stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 683.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.55 | 10.80 | 2.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 54,211 | 54,633 | 0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.6% | 0.2% | -87.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.2 | 64.3 | 683.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 658 | 660 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAL | 2.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 63.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 26.3% | 61.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -26.8% change in AAL stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4042026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.75 | 10.80 | -26.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 48,971 | 54,633 | 11.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.3% | 0.2% | -21.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 75.6 | 64.3 | -15.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 651 | 660 | -1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -26.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AAL | -26.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 52.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 68.8% | 51.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AAL Return | 14% | -29% | 8% | 27% | -12% | -27% | -29% |
| Peers Return | -2% | -25% | -1% | 63% | -2% | -10% | 6% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -4% | 75% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AAL Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 47% | 43% | 65% | 52% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AAL Max Drawdown | -5% | -34% | -14% | -33% | -48% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -33% | -24% | -13% | -42% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DAL, UAL, LUV, ALK, JBLU. See AAL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/2/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AAL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -57.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 136.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -70.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 237.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -58.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 139.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -97.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3420.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to DAL, UAL, LUV, ALK, JBLU
In The Past
American Airlines's stock fell -57.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -57.7% loss requires a 136.4% gain to breakeven.
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About American Airlines (AAL)
American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a mainline fleet of 865 aircraft. The company was formerly known as AMR Corporation and changed its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. American Airlines Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a couple of analogies for American Airlines:
- American Airlines is like the Walmart for air travel, providing widespread, large-scale transportation across a vast network.
- American Airlines is similar to Amazon for air transportation, operating a massive logistical network to move people and cargo globally.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major services provided by American Airlines (AAL):
- Scheduled Air Transportation for Passengers: Providing commercial flights for individuals traveling between various domestic and international destinations.
- Scheduled Air Transportation for Cargo: Transporting freight, mail, and other goods through its air network.
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Major Customers of American Airlines (AAL)
American Airlines primarily sells its services directly to individuals and businesses, rather than to a few major corporate customers. The company serves a diverse customer base for both passenger travel and cargo.
Its primary customer categories are:
- Leisure Travelers: Individuals traveling for personal reasons such as vacations, family visits, or other non-business purposes.
- Business Travelers: Individuals traveling for professional purposes, often on behalf of their employers, for meetings, conferences, corporate events, or work-related assignments.
- Cargo Customers: Businesses, including freight forwarders, logistics companies, and various industries that require air transportation for goods, packages, and other cargo.
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- Boeing (BA)
- Airbus (EADSY)
- General Electric (GE)
- Raytheon Technologies (RTX)
- Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RYCEY)
- Safran S.A. (SAFRY)
- Sabre Corporation (SABR)
- Amadeus IT Group S.A. (AMADY)
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Robert Isom – Chief Executive Officer
Robert Isom is the Chief Executive Officer of American Airlines Group and its subsidiary American Airlines, a role he assumed in March 2022. He also serves on the airline's board of directors. Isom joined American Airlines in 2013 following the merger of US Airways and American Airlines, where he had served as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of US Airways. Prior to that, he held senior executive finance, commercial, operations, strategy, and international roles at GMAC, LLC, Northwest Airlines, and America West Airlines. He began his career at The Procter & Gamble Company. During his career, he was chief restructuring officer of GMAC, LLC.
Devon May – Chief Financial Officer
Devon May was named Chief Financial Officer of American Airlines, effective January 1, 2023. In this role, he oversees all global corporate risk, corporate development, and corporate financial functions. May joined America West in 2002 and has over 20 years of airline industry experience across finance, operations, network planning, and alliances. Before his appointment as CFO, he served as Senior Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations, and previously as Senior Vice President of Finance and American Eagle, and Senior Vice President of Network Strategy. Prior to joining American Airlines in 2013, he was Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis at US Airways, and held Director or Managing Director roles in Alliances, Network Planning, Financial Planning, and Financial Analysis at America West Airlines.
Steve Johnson – Vice Chair and Chief Strategy Officer
Steve Johnson is the Vice Chair and Chief Strategy Officer at American Airlines Group Inc., a position he has held since May 2023. He leads the design and development of strategies across the airline and focuses on the economy and its impact on the business. Johnson joined America West Airlines in 1995, holding various positions including Executive Vice President – Corporate. From 2003 to 2009, he was a partner at Indigo Partners, a private equity firm specializing in airline industry investments. He later joined US Airways in 2009.
Ganesh Jayaram – Chief Digital and Information Officer
Ganesh Jayaram serves as the Chief Digital and Information Officer at American Airlines. In this role, he is responsible for all technology efforts.
Cole Brown – Chief People Officer
Cole Brown is American's Chief People Officer. She leads all aspects of the airline's People organization.
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```htmlKey Risks to American Airlines (AAL)
- High Debt Levels and Fragile Financial Stability: American Airlines faces significant risks due to its substantial debt burden and overall financial fragility. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is notably high, and its interest coverage ratio is extremely low, indicating that earnings are often insufficient to cover interest expenses, potentially leading to further debt issuance.
- Volatility in Fuel Prices and Operational Costs: The airline's profitability is highly sensitive to fluctuating fuel prices and other significant operational costs. American Airlines has historically incurred higher average fuel costs per gallon compared to some of its major U.S. peers, exacerbating this risk.
- Sensitivity to Economic Downturns and Geopolitical Events: American Airlines has demonstrated a poorer ability to withstand economic downturns compared to the broader market. Additionally, geopolitical risks, such as conflicts, can increase fuel costs and complicate travel routes, impacting market forecasts and operational expectations.
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The emergence of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) or electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft poses a clear emerging threat to American Airlines.
These new aircraft are designed for short-to-medium distance travel, potentially offering faster, more direct, and potentially more environmentally friendly alternatives for regional and feeder routes that currently comprise a portion of American Airlines' domestic network. As eVTOL technology advances and becomes commercially viable (with companies actively developing and testing these aircraft for market entry in the coming years), it could disrupt conventional short-haul air travel and ground transportation to/from major hubs. This parallels historical disruptions where a new technology or service model (like Uber for taxis or Netflix for Blockbuster) offered a superior or more convenient alternative for specific market segments.
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The addressable markets for American Airlines' main products and services, which include passenger and cargo air transportation, are substantial across global and North American regions.Passenger Air Transportation Market
- Globally, the passenger air transport market was valued at approximately USD 830.72 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around USD 1,859.54 billion by 2032, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.2%. Other estimates indicate the global passenger air transport market will grow from USD 870.78 billion in 2025 to USD 925.84 billion in 2026 at a CAGR of 6.3%, and is expected to reach USD 1.2 trillion by 2030.
- The passenger air transportation segment consistently dominates the broader air transportation market, accounting for 69.8% of the total market demand.
- North America is a significant region for passenger air travel. In 2025, the commercial aviation segment, driven by passenger demand, held approximately 61.35% of the North America aviation market.
Cargo Air Transportation Market
- The global air cargo market was estimated at USD 257.44 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 501.32 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 10.3% from 2024 to 2030. Another assessment valued the global air cargo market at USD 182.09 billion in 2023, expecting it to reach USD 268.79 billion by 2032 with a CAGR of 4.4%.
- Within the air cargo market, the air freight segment captured the highest share at 61.59% in 2023 due to demand for high-value and time-sensitive goods.
- For North America, the air cargo market was valued at USD 31.94 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 43.20 billion by 2028, at a CAGR of approximately 5.2%. The North America air cargo and freight logistics market generated a revenue of USD 14.72 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.3% from 2024 to 2030, reaching a projected revenue of USD 33.17 billion by 2030.
- The United States air freight transport market size is estimated at USD 51.99 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 64.11 billion by 2031, growing at a 4.29% CAGR. Another report states the U.S. air freight market was valued at USD 64.06 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 91.81 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.08%.
Overall Air Transportation Market (Passenger and Cargo)
- The global air transportation market was valued at approximately USD 814 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 1,241 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 4.9% from 2024 to 2032. Other estimates place the global airlines market size, which includes passenger and cargo movement, at USD 588.67 billion in 2025, anticipated to reach USD 786.39 billion by 2034 with a CAGR of 3.27%. The air transport market is also projected to grow from USD 1,049.48 billion in 2025 to USD 1,466.71 billion in 2030.
- The North America aviation market was valued at USD 79 billion based on a five-year historical analysis and is expected to grow from USD 84.14 billion in 2025 to USD 99.71 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 2.87%.
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American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) anticipates several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:
- Recovery and Growth in Business Travel: American Airlines expects continued revenue growth from the recovery of business travel, particularly from small and medium-sized businesses. The company has observed sequential improvement in managed corporate travel, with domestic business revenue growth surpassing capacity growth in the first quarter of 2024. Corporate revenue notably increased by 14% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025.
- Expansion of Premium Offerings and Enhanced Customer Experience: A significant driver of future revenue is the focus on delivering premium content and enhancing the premium customer experience. American Airlines is investing in product improvements, including the introduction of new state-of-the-art flagship suite seats on its long-haul aircraft (retrofitting Boeing 777-300s and future Airbus A321XLR and Boeing 787-9 deliveries). Premium content, which encompasses upsell, loyalty, and partnership revenue, constituted 61% of the company's revenue in Q1 2024, marking a 17% increase year-over-year. Premium unit revenue outperformed main cabin revenue, and premium cabins contributed nearly 50% of ticket revenue in Q3 2025, with premium seat growth projected to be almost double the pace of main cabin growth.
- Growth of the AAdvantage Loyalty Program and Co-branded Credit Cards: The AAdvantage loyalty program is identified as a major high-margin revenue generator. The company has seen an increase in active accounts and co-branded credit card spending. Cash payments from co-branded credit card partners and other alliances are projected to grow by approximately 10% annually, with expectations to reach around $10 billion annually by the end of the decade, contributing an estimated $1.5 billion in incremental annual pretax income compared to 2024. AAdvantage customers were responsible for 72% of premium content revenue in Q1 2024. Active AAdvantage members contributed 77% to premium revenue in Q2 2025.
- Network Expansion and Optimization: American Airlines is strategically expanding and optimizing its network to drive revenue growth. This includes plans to add 15 new routes for the summer of 2026 and increasing daily departures from key hubs like Chicago, aiming for over 500 daily departures by 2026. The airline is prioritizing capacity restoration in critical markets such as Chicago, Philadelphia, and New York.
- Indirect Revenue Recapture and Digital Transformation: The airline is focused on regaining its historical share of revenue from indirect sales channels, with an expectation to achieve this by the end of 2025 and continue expansion into 2026. This strategy involves refining fare offerings and upgrading commercial processes and technology to enhance revenue generation. Improved indirect channel revenue performance has been noted, with expectations for it to return to normal historical levels by the end of 2025.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (2021-2026) for American Airlines (AAL)
Share Repurchases
- American Airlines reported $0.00 in share buybacks for the latest twelve months ending December 31, 2025.
- The 5-Year Share Buyback Ratio as of December 2025 was -1.00%, indicating an absence of repurchases or a focus on share issuance during that period.
Share Issuance
- A 5-Year Share Buyback Ratio of -1.00% as of December 2025 suggests the company may have been issuing new shares over this period.
Capital Expenditures
- American Airlines' capital expenditures averaged $2.362 billion annually from fiscal years 2021 to 2025, reaching $3.779 billion in 2025.
- The company projects capital expenditures between $4 billion and $4.5 billion for 2026, primarily focused on fleet expansion and modernization, including the delivery of 55 new aircraft.
- A $1 billion investment was announced in February 2026 to expand facilities at Miami International Airport with a new Concourse D extension, aiming to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency, with groundbreaking scheduled for 2027.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
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| 03312026 | NSP | Insperity | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | TNC | Tennant | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | HURN | Huron Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | TRU | TransUnion | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 05312019 | AAL | American Airlines | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.3% | -61.0% | -66.5% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 37.44 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.0 |
| Rev LTM | 41,348 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,090 |
| FCF LTM | -584 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -73 |
| CFO LTM | 1,886 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,419 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -2.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.0 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/EBIT | 5.9 |
| P/E | 26.0 |
| P/CFO | 3.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.7% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -13.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 31.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 8.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -53.4% |
Comparison Analyses
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA207114 | MEDICAL AIR, USP | medical air | gas | 5122014 | -3.4% | 11.8% | 25.2% | -15.0% | -70.8% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $10.84 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 7.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/27/2005 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -33.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $12.56 | $12.90 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -13.7% | -16.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 49.6% | 54.8% |
| Downside Capture | 1.50 | 1.27 |
| Upside Capture | 121.90 | 169.96 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 47.7% | 61.3% |
AAL Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.88 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.68 | 1.85 | 1.60 |
| Up Beta | 4.41 | 4.07 | 3.96 | 1.69 | 2.13 | 1.88 |
| Down Beta | 0.65 | 0.41 | 0.82 | 1.10 | 1.50 | 1.46 |
| Up Capture | 161% | 211% | 129% | 231% | 238% | 209% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 25 | 61 | 127 | 364 |
| Down Capture | 235% | 220% | 213% | 165% | 144% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 24 | 35 | 61 | 118 | 371 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAL | 5.6% | 55.6% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 25.7% | 19.5% | 1.05 | 61.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.1% | 19.0% | 0.67 | 63.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 50.5% | 28.0% | 1.46 | -0.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 16.2% | 17.7% | 0.77 | 4.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 16.5% | 0.04 | 48.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.5% | 44.0% | -0.42 | 34.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAL | -13.9% | 47.7% | -0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.4% | 17.2% | 0.56 | 55.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.6% | 17.0% | 0.53 | 55.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.7% | 17.8% | 1.00 | -1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.6% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 2.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 40.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.9% | 56.5% | 0.29 | 25.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AAL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAL | -11.9% | 52.7% | -0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 19.9% | 0.60 | 57.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 50.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.0% | 15.9% | 0.73 | -2.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 11.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 39.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.2% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 13.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/27/2026 | -7.0% | -6.0% | -8.6% |
| 10/23/2025 | 5.6% | 7.3% | 1.2% |
| 7/24/2025 | -9.6% | -9.2% | -0.9% |
| 4/24/2025 | 3.1% | 6.8% | 22.3% |
| 1/23/2025 | -8.7% | -7.1% | -18.4% |
| 10/24/2024 | -0.4% | 8.7% | 10.7% |
| 7/25/2024 | 4.2% | 4.6% | -0.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | 1.5% | -2.4% | -0.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 17 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 7 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 6.5% | 9.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -6.6% | -5.1% |
| Max Positive | 10.3% | 15.4% | 26.4% |
| Max Negative | -9.6% | -26.8% | -19.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/19/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/20/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/21/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/21/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Total revenue | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.1 | ||||
| Q1 2026 Available seat miles (ASMs) | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1.0% | |||
| Q1 2026 CASM excluding fuel, profit sharing and net special items | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1.0% | |||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted loss per diluted share | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.1 | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted earnings per diluted share | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 175.0% | Raised | Guidance: 0.8 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow | 2.00 Bil | 100.0% | Raised | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2025 | |||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/23/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EPS | 0.45 | 0.6 | 0.75 | Higher New | Guidance: -0.35 for Q3 2025 | ||
| 2025 Adjusted EPS | 0.65 | 0.8 | 0.95 | 166.7% | Raised | Guidance: 0.3 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Free Cash Flow | 1.00 Bil | ||||||
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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