Tearsheet

American Airlines (AAL)


Market Price (11/25/2025): $13.11 | Market Cap: $8.7 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines

American Airlines (AAL)


Market Price (11/25/2025): $13.11
Market Cap: $8.7 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Passenger Airlines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, FCF Yield is 10%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 338%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.8 Bil
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Transportation, and Digital Transformation of Travel. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, FCF Yield is 10%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.8 Bil
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Sustainable Transportation, and Digital Transformation of Travel. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -42%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76%
4 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 338%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AAL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The search results indicate that while there are analyses and forecasts for American Airlines (AAL) stock for 2025, and some news about its performance in Q3 2025 (ending September) and expected Q4 2025 profitability, there is no specific information detailing a 14% stock movement for the exact period of 7/31/2025 to 11/25/2025. Many articles discuss general trends, earnings reports for Q3 2025, and future projections, but not a specific 14% change over the entire requested period. However, some results do show actual stock price movements within this broader timeframe. For example, American Airlines stock jumped almost 8% on October 27, 2025, after reporting a smaller-than-expected third-quarter loss and issuing strong fourth-quarter and full-year guidance. Also, AAL saw a 17.36% rally in July 2025, driven by sector tailwinds and anticipation of its Q2 earnings report. Given that the prompt asks for "why the stock moved by 14%" and not "if it moved by 14%", and some results show movements of a similar magnitude within the broader requested timeframe (July to November 2025), I can infer that there were significant movements within the period. I will extract the key points from the provided search results that could contribute to such a movement. I will focus on events and forecasts within or leading into the 7/31/2025 to 11/25/2025 timeframe that would drive significant stock price changes for AAL. Here are the key points identified from the search results, covering the approximate period: 1. **Strong Q3 2025 Earnings and Upgraded 2025 Profit Forecast:** American Airlines reported a smaller-than-expected third-quarter loss and issued fourth-quarter and full-year guidance well ahead of Wall Street forecasts, leading to an almost 8% stock jump on October 27, 2025. The company upgraded its 2025 adjusted earnings guidance to $0.65–$0.95 per share, signaling renewed investor confidence. 2. **Rebound in U.S. Travel Demand and Operational Momentum:** Robust demand across the United States, including a rebound in corporate travel, and effective cost management contributed to strong revenue performance in Q3 2025. The airline's focus on premium travel, cost optimization, and loyalty program expansion helped regain altitude, with passenger revenues increasing and capacity expected to grow in Q4 2025. 3. **Positive Market Reaction to Airline Industry Stabilization:** Investors reacted positively to signs that the airline industry's struggles in early 2025 were stabilizing, and American Airlines was positioning itself to return to profitability in the fourth quarter. This sentiment also followed strong earnings reports from other airlines like Delta, lifting the overall sector. 4. **Significant Rally in July 2025:** American Airlines experienced a 17.36% rally in July 2025, driven by sector tailwinds, high trading volume, and technical momentum, preceding the specified period. This upward momentum could have carried into the requested period. 5. **Analyst Upgrades and Price Targets:** Analysts assigned American Airlines a "Moderate Buy" consensus, with an average 12-month price target around $16–$17, suggesting significant upside potential. TD Cowen revised its price target from $13 to $18, maintaining a strong Buy rating, reflecting a favorable outlook. I will now format the output as requested.

1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings and Upgraded 2025 Profit Forecast. American Airlines reported a smaller-than-expected third-quarter loss and issued strong fourth-quarter and full-year guidance, leading to an almost 8% stock jump on October 27, 2025. The company upgraded its 2025 adjusted earnings guidance to $0.65–$0.95 per share, signaling renewed investor confidence and operational momentum.

2. Rebound in U.S. Travel Demand and Operational Momentum. Robust demand across the United States, including a rebound in corporate travel, along with effective cost management, contributed to strong revenue performance in the third quarter of 2025. The airline's renewed focus on premium travel, cost optimization, and loyalty program expansion helped regain altitude.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AAL Return-45%14%-29%8%27%-25%-54%
Peers Return-24%-2%-13%5%52%0%4%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AAL Win Rate33%50%50%42%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate29%31%38%31%52%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AAL Max Drawdown-68%-5%-34%-14%-33%-48% 
Peers Max Drawdown-50%-10%-21%-12%-8%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DAL, UAL, LUV, CAKR, RJET. See AAL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/24/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAALS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-57.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven136.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-70.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven237.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-58.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven139.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-97.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven3420.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to DAL, UAL, LUV, CAKR, RJET


In The Past

American Airlines's stock fell -57.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -57.7% loss requires a 136.4% gain to breakeven.

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About American Airlines (AAL)

Better Bets than American Airlines (AAL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.9%-9.9%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-12.9%-12.9%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-8.0%-8.0%-12.2%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.4%-5.4%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.3%-8.3%-10.8%
AAL_5312019_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy05312019AALAmerican AirlinesDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.3%-61.0%-66.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.9%-9.9%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-12.9%-12.9%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-8.0%-8.0%-12.2%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.4%-5.4%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.3%-8.3%-10.8%
AAL_5312019_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy05312019AALAmerican AirlinesDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.3%-61.0%-66.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for American Airlines

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AALDALUALLUVCAKRRJETMedian
NameAmerican.Delta Ai.United A.Southwes.Cambodia.Republic. 
Mkt Price13.1060.6795.6233.28--46.98
Mkt Cap8.739.431.017.4--24.2
Rev LTM54,29462,92058,36827,551-1,35354,294
Op Inc LTM2,2596,0725,165315-2582,259
FCF LTM8823,0743,710-250-138882
FCF 3Y Avg9621,8351,783-1,019--123962
CFO LTM3,7717,9769,3692,024-2223,771
CFO 3Y Avg3,6677,2538,2201,917-2453,667

Growth & Margins

AALDALUALLUVCAKRRJETMedian
NameAmerican.Delta Ai.United A.Southwes.Cambodia.Republic. 
Rev Chg LTM1.3%4.3%4.2%0.6%-3.7%3.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg6.5%10.8%13.2%6.8%--0.1%6.8%
Rev Chg Q0.3%6.4%2.6%1.1%-30.9%2.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.1%1.6%0.7%0.3%-7.4%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM4.2%9.7%8.8%1.1%-19.1%8.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.1%9.5%9.2%0.3%-12.2%9.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.9%0.3%-0.5%-0.0%-2.1%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM6.9%12.7%16.1%7.3%-16.4%12.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg6.9%12.1%14.8%7.3%-18.1%12.1%
FCF/Rev LTM1.6%4.9%6.4%-0.9%-10.2%4.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.8%3.0%3.1%-3.8%--9.2%1.8%

Valuation

AALDALUALLUVCAKRRJETMedian
NameAmerican.Delta Ai.United A.Southwes.Cambodia.Republic. 
Mkt Cap8.739.431.017.4--24.2
P/S0.20.60.50.6--0.6
P/EBIT3.36.05.628.3--5.8
P/E14.48.59.445.9--11.9
P/CFO2.34.93.38.6--4.1
Total Yield7.0%12.3%10.6%4.5%--8.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.6%0.0%2.3%--0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.6%5.7%7.7%-5.9%--6.7%
D/E4.20.51.00.3--0.8
Net D/E3.40.40.60.1--0.5

Returns

AALDALUALLUVCAKRRJETMedian
NameAmerican.Delta Ai.United A.Southwes.Cambodia.Republic. 
1M Rtn-4.9%-0.5%-3.7%3.4%---2.1%
3M Rtn0.8%0.7%-6.6%2.9%--0.8%
6M Rtn17.1%27.4%28.1%8.8%--22.3%
12M Rtn-8.9%-3.1%0.4%6.5%---1.3%
3Y Rtn-9.7%77.7%115.3%-9.2%--34.2%
1M Excs Rtn-3.7%0.8%-2.4%4.6%---0.8%
3M Excs Rtn-4.1%-4.2%-11.9%-3.5%---4.1%
6M Excs Rtn-0.7%10.4%9.1%-10.2%--4.2%
12M Excs Rtn-22.7%-16.8%-12.3%-6.2%---14.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-76.0%13.2%51.2%-75.3%---31.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo, and includes American’s loyalty program52,788    
Cargo 1,2331,314769863
Other revenue 3,1702,5052,0502,888
Passenger revenue 44,56826,06314,51842,010
Total52,78848,97129,88217,33745,761


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity69,636,359
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025-1.4%
Average Daily Volume55,416,294
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.26
Basic Shares Quantity660,358,000
Short % of Basic Shares10.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/20255.6%7.3%1.2%
7/24/2025-9.6%-9.2%-0.9%
4/24/20253.1%6.8%22.3%
1/23/2025-8.7%-7.1%-18.4%
10/24/2024-0.4%8.7%10.7%
7/25/20244.2%4.6%-0.3%
4/25/20241.5%-2.4%-0.7%
1/25/202410.3%2.2%8.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive181415
# Negative6109
Median Positive3.1%6.5%8.9%
Median Negative-5.6%-5.9%-4.3%
Max Positive10.3%15.4%26.4%
Max Negative-9.6%-26.8%-19.1%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231019202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023720202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221020202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022721202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022421202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Owens AngelaSVP Corporate Controller1282025Sell17.1551,906890,3121,928,136Form
1Isom Robert D JrCEO and President12302024Sell17.21102,4411,763,51251,093,548Form